Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 859–872, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-859-2020
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 859–872, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-859-2020
Model evaluation paper
04 Mar 2020
Model evaluation paper | 04 Mar 2020

Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5

Rui Ito et al.

Related authors

Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Summertime circumglobal Rossby waves in climate models: Small biases in upper-level circulation create substantial biases in surface imprint
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-48,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-48, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
Short summary
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: Investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-58,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-58, 2021
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric sciences
Order of magnitude wall time improvement of variational methane inversions by physical parallelization: a demonstration using TM5-4DVAR
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, and Arjo Segers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4555–4567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4555-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4555-2022, 2022
Short summary
Simulated microphysical properties of winter storms from bulk-type microphysics schemes and their evaluation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (v4.1.3) model during the ICE-POP 2018 field campaign
Jeong-Su Ko, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Kwonil Kim, Gyuwon Lee, Gregory Thompson, and Alexis Berne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4529–4553, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4529-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4529-2022, 2022
Short summary
A novel method for objective identification of 3-D potential vorticity anomalies
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Roderick van der Linden, Michael Maier-Gerber, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4447–4468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4447-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Multiple same-level and telescoping nesting in GFDL's dynamical core
Joseph Mouallem, Lucas Harris, and Rusty Benson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4355–4371, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4355-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4355-2022, 2022
Short summary
Global, high-resolution mapping of tropospheric ozone – explainable machine learning and impact of uncertainties
Clara Betancourt, Timo T. Stomberg, Ann-Kathrin Edrich, Ankit Patnala, Martin G. Schultz, Ribana Roscher, Julia Kowalski, and Scarlet Stadtler
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4331–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4331-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4331-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Bartók, B., Wild, M., Folini, D., Lüthi, D., Kotlarski, S., Schär, C., Vautard, R., Jerez, S., and Imecs, Z.: Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2665–2683, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2, 2017. 
Beck, H. E., Wood, E. F. Pan, M., Fisher, C. K., Miralles, D. G., van Dijk, A. I., McVicar, T. R., and Adler, R. F.: MSWEP V2 global 3-hourly 0.1 precipitation: methodology and quantitative assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 473–500, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0138.1, 2019. 
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1, 2013. 
Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E., Sallee, J.-B., Wang, Z., Meijers, A. J. S., Bruneau, N, Phillips, T., and Wilcox, L. J.: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50153, 2013. 
Cannon, A. J.: Selecting GCM scenarios that span the range of changes in a multimodel ensemble: application to CMIP5 climate extremes indices, J. Climate, 28, 1260–1267, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00636.1, 2015. 
Download
Short summary
The model performance and the coverage of the uncertainty in the climate changes were investigated for the ensembles of CMIP5 models used in ISIMIP2b and CORDEX programs. We found both programs selected models that acceptably reproduced the historical climate. Also, the global common ensemble (ISIMIP2b) has difficulty in capturing the uncertainty in two variables at the regional scale, whereas the region-specific ensemble (CORDEX) overcomes the difficulty by applying a properly large ensemble.