Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-859-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-859-2020
Model evaluation paper
 | 
04 Mar 2020
Model evaluation paper |  | 04 Mar 2020

Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5

Rui Ito, Hideo Shiogama, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, and Izuru Takayabu

Related authors

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
Short summary
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Uncertainty in simulated streamflow using runoff driven by the outputs of a high-resolution regional climate model
Aulia Febianda Anwar Tinumbang, Kazuaki Yorozu, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Hidetaka Sasaki, and Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
Proc. IAHS, 386, 75–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-75-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-75-2024, 2024
Short summary
MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses
Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Manabu Abe, Miki Arai, Hiroshi Koyama, Yukiko Imada, Yu Kosaka, Tomoo Ogura, and Masahiro Watanabe
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1107–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, 2023
Short summary
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric sciences
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Bartók, B., Wild, M., Folini, D., Lüthi, D., Kotlarski, S., Schär, C., Vautard, R., Jerez, S., and Imecs, Z.: Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2665–2683, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2, 2017. 
Beck, H. E., Wood, E. F. Pan, M., Fisher, C. K., Miralles, D. G., van Dijk, A. I., McVicar, T. R., and Adler, R. F.: MSWEP V2 global 3-hourly 0.1 precipitation: methodology and quantitative assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 473–500, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0138.1, 2019. 
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1, 2013. 
Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E., Sallee, J.-B., Wang, Z., Meijers, A. J. S., Bruneau, N, Phillips, T., and Wilcox, L. J.: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50153, 2013. 
Cannon, A. J.: Selecting GCM scenarios that span the range of changes in a multimodel ensemble: application to CMIP5 climate extremes indices, J. Climate, 28, 1260–1267, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00636.1, 2015. 
Download
Short summary
The model performance and the coverage of the uncertainty in the climate changes were investigated for the ensembles of CMIP5 models used in ISIMIP2b and CORDEX programs. We found both programs selected models that acceptably reproduced the historical climate. Also, the global common ensemble (ISIMIP2b) has difficulty in capturing the uncertainty in two variables at the regional scale, whereas the region-specific ensemble (CORDEX) overcomes the difficulty by applying a properly large ensemble.
Share