Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 859–872, 2020
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 859–872, 2020

Model evaluation paper 04 Mar 2020

Model evaluation paper | 04 Mar 2020

Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5

Rui Ito et al.

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Cited articles

Bartók, B., Wild, M., Folini, D., Lüthi, D., Kotlarski, S., Schär, C., Vautard, R., Jerez, S., and Imecs, Z.: Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2665–2683,, 2017. 
Beck, H. E., Wood, E. F. Pan, M., Fisher, C. K., Miralles, D. G., van Dijk, A. I., McVicar, T. R., and Adler, R. F.: MSWEP V2 global 3-hourly 0.1 precipitation: methodology and quantitative assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 473–500,, 2019. 
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678,, 2013. 
Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E., Sallee, J.-B., Wang, Z., Meijers, A. J. S., Bruneau, N, Phillips, T., and Wilcox, L. J.: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 547–562,, 2013. 
Cannon, A. J.: Selecting GCM scenarios that span the range of changes in a multimodel ensemble: application to CMIP5 climate extremes indices, J. Climate, 28, 1260–1267,, 2015. 
Short summary
The model performance and the coverage of the uncertainty in the climate changes were investigated for the ensembles of CMIP5 models used in ISIMIP2b and CORDEX programs. We found both programs selected models that acceptably reproduced the historical climate. Also, the global common ensemble (ISIMIP2b) has difficulty in capturing the uncertainty in two variables at the regional scale, whereas the region-specific ensemble (CORDEX) overcomes the difficulty by applying a properly large ensemble.