The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0)
contribution to CMIP6
Nathan P. Gillett1,Hideo Shiogama2,Bernd Funke3,Gabriele Hegerl4,Reto Knutti5,Katja Matthes6,7,Benjamin D. Santer8,Daithi Stone9,and Claudia Tebaldi10Nathan P. Gillett et al. Nathan P. Gillett1,Hideo Shiogama2,Bernd Funke3,Gabriele Hegerl4,Reto Knutti5,Katja Matthes6,7,Benjamin D. Santer8,Daithi Stone9,and Claudia Tebaldi10
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Canada
2Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
3Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, 18008 Granada, Spain
4School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK
5Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
6Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105 Kiel, Germany
7Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 24105 Kiel, Germany
8Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550, USA
9Computational Chemistry, Materials and Climate, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
10Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Canada
2Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
3Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, 18008 Granada, Spain
4School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK
5Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
6Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105 Kiel, Germany
7Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 24105 Kiel, Germany
8Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550, USA
9Computational Chemistry, Materials and Climate, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
10Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
Correspondence: Nathan P. Gillett (nathan.gillett@canada.ca)
Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed...
