Articles | Volume 12, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
11 Dec 2019
Model description paper |
| 11 Dec 2019
| 11 Dec 2019
GLOBAL-FATE (version 1.0.0): A geographical information system (GIS)-based model for assessing contaminants fate in the global river network
Carme Font
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona, Spain
University of Girona, Girona, Spain
Francesco Bregoli
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona, Spain
current address: Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University
Heyendaalseweg 135, 6525 AJ, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
Vicenç Acuña
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona, Spain
University of Girona, Girona, Spain
Sergi Sabater
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona, Spain
Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona, Campus
Montilivi, 17071 Girona, Spain
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona, Spain
University of Girona, Girona, Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3007, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological modelling integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Matthias Koschorreck, Yves T. Prairie, Jihyeon Kim, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences, 18, 1619–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in water samples is often measured using a gas chromatograph. Depending on the chemical composition of the water, this method can produce wrong results. We quantified the possible error and how it depends on water composition and the analytical procedure. We propose a method to correct wrong results by additionally analysing alkalinity in the samples. We provide an easily usable computer code to perform the correction calculations.
Tricia Light, Núria Catalán, Santiago Giralt, and Rafael Marcé
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-128, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Water reservoir sediments can store large amounts of organic. However, it is unclear what happens to this organic carbon when water reservoirs go dry due to drought, water diversion, etc. Here, we conducted laboratory incubations of reservoir sediment to determine the effect of drying on this stored organic carbon. We found that while some of the organic carbon in water reservoir sediments is released to the atmosphere as reservoirs go dry, other sediment processes can offset these emissions.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
R. Aguilera, R. Marcé, and S. Sabater
Biogeosciences, 12, 4085–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4085-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrate and dissolved phosphate concentration time series (1980--2011) from 50 sampling stations across a large Mediterranean river basin were analyzed using dynamic factor analysis and complementary methods in order to disentangle the role of hydrology, land-use practices, and global climatic phenomena on nitrate and phosphate patterns, with the aim of understanding how the different aspects of global change affected nutrient dynamics in the basin.
Related subject area
Biogeosciences
Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627
Biological nitrogen fixation of natural and agricultural vegetation simulated with LPJmL 5.7.9
Learning from conceptual models – a study of the emergence of cooperation towards resource protection in a social–ecological system
The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests
DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology
Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model
Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model
Assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes within the adjoint-based data assimilation system – Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0)
Quantifying the role of ozone-caused damage to vegetation in the Earth system: a new parameterization scheme for photosynthetic and stomatal responses
Radiocarbon analysis reveals underestimation of soil organic carbon persistence in new-generation soil models
Exploring the potential of history matching for land surface model calibration
EAT v1.0.0: a 1D test bed for physical–biogeochemical data assimilation in natural waters
Using deep learning to integrate paleoclimate and global biogeochemistry over the Phanerozoic Eon
Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier
Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0
In silico calculation of soil pH by SCEPTER v1.0
Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes
A global behavioural model of human fire use and management: WHAM! v1.0
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR) version 1.0: simulating ecophysiological responses of vegetation to atmospheric chemical and meteorological changes
An improved model for air–sea exchange of elemental mercury in MITgcm-ECCO v4-Hg: the role of surfactants and waves
BOATSv2: New ecological and economic features improve simulations of High Seas catch and effort
Lambda-PFLOTRAN 1.0: Workflow for Incorporating Organic Matter Chemistry Informed by Ultra High Resolution Mass Spectrometry into Biogeochemical Modeling
biospheremetrics v1.0.2: an R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators – human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk)
Modeling boreal forest soil dynamics with the microbially explicit soil model MIMICS+ (v1.0)
Optimal enzyme allocation leads to the constrained enzyme hypothesis: the Soil Enzyme Steady Allocation Model (SESAM; v3.1)
Implementing a dynamic representation of fire and harvest including subgrid-scale heterogeneity in the tile-based land surface model CLASSIC v1.45
Inferring the tree regeneration niche from inventory data using a dynamic forest model
A dynamical process-based model AMmonia–CLIMate v1.0 (AMCLIM v1.0) for quantifying global agricultural ammonia emissions – Part 1: Land module for simulating emissions from synthetic fertilizer use
Optimising CH4 simulations from the LPJ-GUESS model v4.1 using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
The XSO framework (v0.1) and Phydra library (v0.1) for a flexible, reproducible, and integrated plankton community modeling environment in Python
AgriCarbon-EO v1.0.1: large-scale and high-resolution simulation of carbon fluxes by assimilation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 reflectances using a Bayesian approach
SAMM version 1.0: a numerical model for microbial- mediated soil aggregate formation
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Computationally efficient parameter estimation for high-dimensional ocean biogeochemical models
The community-centered freshwater biogeochemistry model unified RIVE v1.0: a unified version for water column
Observation-based sowing dates and cultivars significantly affect yield and irrigation for some crops in the Community Land Model (CLM5)
The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations
A novel Eulerian model based on central moments to simulate age and reactivity continua interacting with mixing processes
AdaScape 1.0: a coupled modelling tool to investigate the links between tectonics, climate, and biodiversity
An along-track Biogeochemical Argo modelling framework: a case study of model improvements for the Nordic seas
Peatland-VU-NUCOM (PVN 1.0): using dynamic plant functional types to model peatland vegetation, CH4, and CO2 emissions
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)
SedTrace 1.0: a Julia-based framework for generating and running reactive-transport models of marine sediment diagenesis specializing in trace elements and isotopes
A high-resolution marine mercury model MITgcm-ECCO2-Hg with online biogeochemistry
Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N2O, NO, and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands
Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3
Forcing the Global Fire Emissions Database burned-area dataset into the Community Land Model version 5.0: impacts on carbon and water fluxes at high latitudes
Modeling of non-structural carbohydrate dynamics by the spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM (SEIB-DGVM-NSC version 1.0)
MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales
Modelling the role of livestock grazing in C and N cycling in grasslands with LPJmL5.0-grazing
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Saeed Harati-Asl, Liliana Perez, and Roberto Molowny-Horas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7423–7443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Social–ecological systems are the subject of many sustainability problems. Because of the complexity of these systems, we must be careful when intervening in them; otherwise we may cause irreversible damage. Using computer models, we can gain insight about these complex systems without harming them. In this paper we describe how we connected an ecological model of forest insect infestation with a social model of cooperation and simulated an intervention measure to save a forest from infestation.
Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Zoltán Barcza, Dóra Hidy, Zuzana Sitková, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanovic, Daniel Kurjak, Michal Bošel'a, Doroteja Bitunjac, Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Jiří Novák, Peter Fleischer, and Tomáš Hlásny
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7317–7346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a multi-objective calibration approach leading to robust parameter values aiming to strike a balance between their local precision and broad applicability. Using the Biome-BGCMuSo model, we tested the calibrated parameter sets for simulating European beech forest dynamics across large environmental gradients. Leveraging data from 87 plots and five European countries, the results demonstrated reasonable local accuracy and plausible large-scale productivity responses.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Huajie Zhu, Mousong Wu, Fei Jiang, Michael Vossbeck, Thomas Kaminski, Xiuli Xing, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6337–6363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we developed the Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0). Data assimilation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the robustness and investigate the feasibility and applicability of NUCAS. The assimilation of ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes improved the model performance in gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and sensible heat, showing that COS provides constraints on parameters relevant to carbon-, water-, and energy-related processes.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4515–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to the accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and the resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the enhanced weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive–transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, and Timothy Lam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3733–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which simulates plant carbon and pollutant uptake and predicts their response to varying atmospheric conditions. This model is designed to couple with an atmospheric chemistry model so that questions related to plant–atmosphere interactions, such as the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and ozone pollution on forest carbon uptake, can be addressed. The model has been well validated with both ground and satellite observations.
Ling Li, Peipei Wu, Peng Zhang, Shaojian Huang, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-81, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of Hg0 fluxes is of great uncertainty due to neglecting wave breaking and sea surfactant. Integrating these factors into MITgcm significantly rise Hg0 transfer velocity. The updated model shows increased fluxes in high wind and wave regions and vice versa, enhancing the spatial heterogeneity. It shows a stronger correlation between Hg0 transfer velocity and wind speed. These findings may elucidate the discrepancies in previous estimations and offer insights into global Hg cycling.
Jerome Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Ryan F. Heneghan, and Eric D. Galbraith
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-26, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models that capture key features of the global dynamics of fish communities play a crucial role in addressing the impacts of climate change and industrial fishing on ecosystems and societies. Here, we detail an update of the BiOeconomic marine Trophic Size-spectrum model that corrects the model representation of the dynamic of fisheries in the High Seas. This update also allows a better representation of biodiversity to improve future global and regional fisheries studies.
Katherine A. Muller, Peishi Jiang, Glenn Hammond, Tasneem Ahmadullah, Hyun-Seob Song, Ravi Kukkadapu, Nicholas Ward, Madison Bowe, Rosalie K. Chu, Qian Zhao, Vanessa A. Garayburu-Caruso, Alan Roebuck, and Xingyuan Chen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-34, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The newly developed Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow incorporates organic matter chemistry into reaction networks to simulate respiration and the resulting biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a python-based workflow via a Jupyter Notebook interface, that digests raw organic matter chemistry data via FTICR-MS, develops the representative reaction network, and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open source, parallel reactive flow and transport code PFLOTRAN.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Elin Ristorp Aas, Heleen A. de Wit, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2929–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By including microbial processes in soil models, we learn how the soil system interacts with its environment and responds to climate change. We present a soil process model, MIMICS+, which is able to reproduce carbon stocks found in boreal forest soils better than a conventional land model. With the model we also find that when adding nitrogen, the relationship between soil microbes changes notably. Coupling the model to a vegetation model will allow for further study of these mechanisms.
Thomas Wutzler, Christian Reimers, Bernhard Ahrens, and Marion Schrumpf
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2705–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes provide a strong link for elemental fluxes in the earth system. The SESAM model applies an optimality assumption to model those linkages and their adaptation. We found that a previous heuristic description was a special case of a newly developed more rigorous description. The finding of new behaviour at low microbial biomass led us to formulate the constrained enzyme hypothesis. We now can better describe how microbially mediated linkages of elemental fluxes adapt across decades.
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Yannek Käber, Florian Hartig, and Harald Bugmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2727–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many forest models include detailed mechanisms of forest growth and mortality, but regeneration is often simplified. Testing and improving forest regeneration models is challenging. We address this issue by exploring how forest inventories from unmanaged European forests can be used to improve such models. We find that competition for light among trees is captured by the model, unknown model components can be informed by forest inventory data, and climatic effects are challenging to capture.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, and Mark A. Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-962, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from fertilizer use, whilst taking into account how the environment influences these NH3 emissions. It is estimated that about 17 % of applied N in fertilizers were lost due to NH3 emissions. Hot and dry conditions and regions with high pH soils can expect higher NH3 emissions.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Benjamin Post, Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Andrew D. Barton, and Agostino Merico
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1175–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Creating computational models of how phytoplankton grows in the ocean is a technical challenge. We developed a new tool set (Xarray-simlab-ODE) for building such models using the programming language Python. We demonstrate the tool set in a library of plankton models (Phydra). Our goal was to allow scientists to develop models quickly, while also allowing the model structures to be changed easily. This allows us to test many different structures of our models to find the most appropriate one.
Taeken Wijmer, Ahmad Al Bitar, Ludovic Arnaud, Remy Fieuzal, and Eric Ceschia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 997–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Quantification of carbon fluxes of crops is an essential building block for the construction of a monitoring, reporting, and verification approach. We developed an end-to-end platform (AgriCarbon-EO) that assimilates, through a Bayesian approach, high-resolution (10 m) optical remote sensing data into radiative transfer and crop modelling at regional scale (100 x 100 km). Large-scale estimates of carbon flux are validated against in situ flux towers and yield maps and analysed at regional scale.
Moritz Laub, Sergey Blagodatsky, Marijn Van de Broek, Samuel Schlichenmaier, Benjapon Kunlanit, Johan Six, Patma Vityakon, and Georg Cadisch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 931–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage soil organic matter (SOM) sustainably, we need a better understanding of the role that soil microbes play in aggregate protection. Here, we propose the SAMM model, which connects soil aggregate formation to microbial growth. We tested it against data from a tropical long-term experiment and show that SAMM effectively represents the microbial growth, SOM, and aggregate dynamics and that it can be used to explore the importance of aggregate formation in SOM stabilization.
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 865–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Shuaitao Wang, Vincent Thieu, Gilles Billen, Josette Garnier, Marie Silvestre, Audrey Marescaux, Xingcheng Yan, and Nicolas Flipo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 449–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents unified RIVE v1.0, a unified version of the freshwater biogeochemistry model RIVE. It harmonizes different RIVE implementations, providing the referenced formalisms for microorganism activities to describe full biogeochemical cycles in the water column (e.g., carbon, nutrients, oxygen). Implemented as open-source projects in Python 3 (pyRIVE 1.0) and ANSI C (C-RIVE 0.32), unified RIVE v1.0 promotes and enhances collaboration among research teams and public services.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Jurjen Rooze, Heewon Jung, and Hagen Radtke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7107–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical particles in nature have properties such as age or reactivity. Distributions can describe the properties of chemical concentrations. In nature, they are affected by mixing processes, such as chemical diffusion, burrowing animals, and bottom trawling. We derive equations for simulating the effect of mixing on central moments that describe the distributions. We then demonstrate applications in which these equations are used to model continua in disturbed natural environments.
Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Jean Braun, Katherine Kravitz, N. Alexia Raharinirina, and Benoît Bovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6921–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interplay of tectonics and climate influences the evolution of life and the patterns of biodiversity we observe on earth's surface. Here we present an adaptive speciation component coupled with a landscape evolution model that captures the essential earth-surface, ecological, and evolutionary processes that lead to the diversification of taxa. We can illustrate with our tool how life and landforms co-evolve to produce distinct biodiversity patterns on geological timescales.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
Tanya J. R. Lippmann, Ype van der Velde, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, Han Dolman, Dimmie M. D. Hendriks, and Ko van Huissteden
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6773–6804, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation is a critical component of carbon storage in peatlands but an often-overlooked concept in many peatland models. We developed a new model capable of simulating the response of vegetation to changing environments and management regimes. We evaluated the model against observed chamber data collected at two peatland sites. We found that daily air temperature, water level, harvest frequency and height, and vegetation composition drive methane and carbon dioxide emissions.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Jianghui Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5865–5894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Trace elements and isotopes (TEIs) are important tools to study the changes in the ocean environment both today and in the past. However, the behaviors of TEIs in marine sediments are poorly known, limiting our ability to use them in oceanography. Here we present a modeling framework that can be used to generate and run models of the sedimentary cycling of TEIs assisted with advanced numerical tools in the Julia language, lowering the coding barrier for the general user to study marine TEIs.
Siyu Zhu, Peipei Wu, Siyi Zhang, Oliver Jahn, Shu Li, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5915–5929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we estimate the global biogeochemical cycling of Hg in a state-of-the-art physical-ecosystem ocean model (high-resolution-MITgcm/Hg), providing a more accurate portrayal of surface Hg concentrations in estuarine and coastal areas, strong western boundary flow and upwelling areas, and concentration diffusion as vortex shapes. The high-resolution model can help us better predict the transport and fate of Hg in the ocean and its impact on the global Hg cycle.
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Özgür Gürses, Laurent Oziel, Onur Karakuş, Dmitry Sidorenko, Christoph Völker, Ying Ye, Moritz Zeising, Martin Butzin, and Judith Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the biogeochemical model REcoM3 coupled to the ocean–sea ice model FESOM2.1. The model can be used to simulate the carbon uptake or release of the ocean on timescales of several hundred years. A detailed analysis of the nutrients, ocean productivity, and ecosystem is followed by the carbon cycle. The main conclusion is that the model performs well when simulating the observed mean biogeochemical state and variability and is comparable to other ocean–biogeochemical models.
Hocheol Seo and Yeonjoo Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4699–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is a crucial factor in carbon and water fluxes on the Earth system. About 2.1 Pg of carbon is released into the atmosphere by wildfires annually. Because the fire processes are still limitedly represented in land surface models, we forced the daily GFED4 burned area into the land surface model over Alaska and Siberia. The results with the GFED4 burned area significantly improved the simulated carbon emissions and net ecosystem exchange compared to the default simulation.
Hideki Ninomiya, Tomomichi Kato, Lea Végh, and Lan Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4155–4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) play a crucial role in plants to counteract the effects of climate change. We added a new NSC module into the SEIB-DGVM, an individual-based ecosystem model. The simulated NSC levels and their seasonal patterns show a strong agreement with observed NSC data at both point and global scales. The model can be used to simulate the biotic effects resulting from insufficient NSCs, which are otherwise difficult to measure in terrestrial ecosystems globally.
Miquel De Cáceres, Roberto Molowny-Horas, Antoine Cabon, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta, Maurizio Mencuccini, Raúl García-Valdés, Daniel Nadal-Sala, Santiago Sabaté, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Xavier Morin, Francesco D'Adamo, Enric Batllori, and Aitor Améztegui
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3165–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity. This can be done by estimating parameters from available plant trait databases while adopting alternative solutions for missing data. Here we present the design, parameterization and evaluation of MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), a novel model of forest dynamics for its application over a region in the western Mediterranean Basin.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Cited articles
Acuña, V., Ginebreda, A., Mor, J. R., Petrovic, M., Sabater, S.,
Sumpter, J., and Barceló, D.: Balancing the health benefits and
environmental risks of pharmaceuticals: Diclofenac as an example, Environ.
Int., 85, 327–333,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.023, 2015.
Anderson, P. D., D'Aco, V. J., Shanahan, P., Chapra, S. C., Buzby, M. E.,
Cunningham, V. L., and Rader, J. C.: Screening analysis of human pharmaceutical
compounds in US surface waters, Environ. Sci. Technol., 38, 838–849,
https://doi.org/10.1021/es034430b, 2004.
Andreadis, K. M., Schumann, G. J. P., and Pavelsky, T.: A simple global river
bankfull width and depth database, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7164–7168,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20440, 2013.
Archundia, D., Boithias, L., Duwig, C., Morel, M. C., Aviles, G. F., and
Martins, J. M. F.: Environmental fate and ecotoxicological risk of the
antibiotic sulfamethoxazole across the Katari catchment (Bolivian
Altiplano): Application of the GREAT-ER model, Sci. Total Environ., 622,
1046–1055, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.026, 2018.
Arlos, M. J., Bragg, L. M., Servos, M. R., and Parker, W. J.: Simulation of the
fate of selected pharmaceuticals and personal care products in a highly
impacted reach of a Canadian watershed, Sci. Total Environ., 485, 193–204,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.092, 2014.
Besseling, E., Quik, J. T., Sun, M., and Koelmans, A. A.: Fate of nano-and
microplastic in freshwater systems: A modeling study, Environ. Pollut., 220,
540–548, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.10.001, 2017.
Boxall, A. B. A., Keller, V. D. J., Straub, J. O., Monteiro, S. C., Fussell,
R., Williams, R. J.: Exploiting monitoring data in environmental exposure
modelling and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals, Environ. Int., 73,
176–185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2014.07.018, 2014.
Brown, L. C. and Barnwell, T. O.: The enhanced stream water quality models
QUAL2E and QUAL2E-UNCAS: documentation and user manual, US Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Environmental
Research Laboratory, 1987.
Darracq, A. and Destouni, G.: Physical versus biogeochemical interpretations of
nitrogen and phosphorus attenuation in streams and its dependence on stream
characteristics, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002901, 2007.
Diamantini, E., Mallucci, S., and Bellin, A.: A parsimonious transport model of emerging contaminants
at the river network scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 573–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-573-2019, 2019.
Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J.-C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L.,
Hirabayashi, Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., and
Feyen, L.: Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with
anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 781–786, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z, 2018.
Doxsey-Whitfield E., MacManus K., Adamo S. B., Pistolesi, L., Squires, J.,
Borkovska, O., and Baptista, S. R.: Taking Advantage of the Improved
Availability of Census Data: A First Look at the Gridded Population of the
World, Version 4, Pap. Appl. Geogr., 1, 226–234, https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2015.1014272, 2015.
Dumont, E., Johnson, A. C., Keller, V. D., and Williams, R. J.: Nano silver and
nano zinc-oxide in surface waters–Exposure estimation for Europe at high
spatial and temporal resolution, Environ. Pollut., 196, 341–349,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2014.10.022, 2015.
Feijtel, T., Boeije, G., Matthies, M., Young, A., Morris, G., Gandolfi, C.,
Hanse, C., Fox, K., Holt, M., Koch, V., Schroder, R., Cassani, G.,
Schowanek, D., Rosenblom, J., and Niessen, H.: Development of a
geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European
rivers-GREAT-ER contribution to GREAT-ER# 1, Chemosphere, 34, 2351–2373,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0045-6535(97)00048-9, 1997.
Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., and Grabs, W.: High-resolution fields
of global run-off combining observed river discharge and simulated water
balances, Global Biochem. Cy., 16, 1042, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001254, 2002.
Ferrer, D. L. and DeLeo, P. C.: Development of an in-stream environmental
exposure model for assessing down-the-drain chemicals in Southern Ontario,
Water Qual. Res. J., 52, 258–269, https://doi.org/10.2166/wqrj.2017.019, 2017.
Font, C., Bregoli, F., Acuña, V., Sabater, S., and Marcé, R.:
GLOBALFATE Version 1.0.0, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3524124, 2019.
Goldman, L. R. and Koduru, S.: Chemicals in the environment and developmental
toxicity to children: a public health and policy perspective, Environ.
Health Persp., 108, 443–448, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.00108s3443, 2000.
Gouin, T., Armitage, J. M., Cousins, I. T., Muir, D. C., Ng, C. A., Reid,
L., and Tao, S.: Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and
bioaccumulation: The role of multimedia models, Environ. Toxicol. Chem., 32,
20–31, https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.2044, 2013.
Grill, G., Khan, U., Lehner, B., Nicell, J., and Ariwi, J.: Risk assessment of
down-the-drain chemicals at large spatial scales: Model development and
application to contaminants originating from urban areas in the Saint
Lawrence River Basin, Sci. Total Environ., 541, 825–838,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.100, 2016.
Grill, G., Li, J., Khan, U., Zhong, Y., Lehner, B., Nicell, J., and Ariwi, J.:
Estimating the eco-toxicological risk of estrogens in China's rivers using a
high-resolution contaminant fate model, Water Res., 145, 707–720,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.08.053, 2018.
Harrison, J. A., Beusen, A. H. W., Fink, G., Tang, T., Strokal, M., Bouwman,
A. F., Metson, G. S., and Vilmin, L.: Modeling phosphorus in rivers at the
global scale: recent successes, remaining challenges, and near-term
opportunities, Curr. Opin. Env. Sust., 36, 68–77,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.10.010, 2019.
Heberer, T. and Feldmann, D.: Contribution of effluents from hospitals and
private households to the total loads of diclofenac and carbamazepine in
municipal sewage effluents – Modeling versus measurements, J. Hazard.
Mater., 122, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.03.007, 2005.
Hernández, F., Ibáñez, M., Botero-Coy, A. M., Bade, R.,
Bustos-López, M. C., Rincón, J., and Bijlsma, L.: LC-QTOF MS
screening of more than 1,000 licit and illicit drugs and their metabolites
in wastewater and surface waters from the area of Bogotá, Colombia,
Anal. Bioanal. Chem., 407, 6405–6416, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00216-015-8796-x, 2015.
Hsu, A. and Zomer, A.: Environmental Performance Index, in: Wiley StatsRef:
Statistics Reference Online, edited by: Balakrishnan, N., Colton, T.,
Everitt, B., Piegorsch, W., Ruggeri, F., and Teugels, J. L., John Wiley &
Sons, New York, USA, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118445112.stat03789.pub2, 2016.
Johnson, A. C., Keller, V., Williams, R. J., and Young, A.: A practical
demonstration in modelling diclofenac and propranolol river water
concentrations using a GIS hydrology model in a rural UK catchment, Environ.
Pollut., 146, 155–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2006.05.037, 2007.
Johnson, A. C., Dumont, E., Williams, R. J., Oldenkamp, R., Cisowska, I., and
Sumpter, J. P.: Do concentrations of ethinylestradiol, estradiol, and
diclofenac in European rivers exceed proposed EU environmental quality
standards?, Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 12297–12304, https://doi.org/10.1021/es4030035, 2013.
Kapo, K. E., DeLeo, P. C., Vamshi, R., Holmes, C. M., Ferrer, D., Dyer, S.
D., and Wang, X., White-Hull, C.: iSTREEM: An approach for broad-scale in-stream
exposure assessment of “down-the-drain” chemicals, Integr. Environ.
Assess., 12, 782–792, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1793, 2016.
Keller, V., Fox, K., Rees, H. G., and Young, A. R.: Estimating population
served by sewage treatment works from readily available GIS data,
Sci. Total Environ., 360, 319–327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.08.043, 2006.
Keller, V. D. J., Lloyd, P., Terry, J. A., and Williams, R. J.: Impact of
climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine
disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales, Environ.
Pollut., 197, 262–268, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2014.11.017, 2015.
K'oreje, K. O., Vergeynst, L., Ombaka, D., De Wispelaere, P., Okoth, M., Van
Langenhove, H., and Demeestere, K.: Occurrence patterns of pharmaceutical
residues in wastewater, surface water and groundwater of Nairobi and Kisumu
city, Kenya, Chemosphere, 149, 238–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.01.095, 2016.
Lehner, B. and Döll, P.: Development and validation of a global database of
lakes, reservoirs and wetlands, J. Hydrol., 296, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.028, 2004.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete,
B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J.,
Nilsson, C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.:
High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable
river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502, https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011.
Leopold, L. B. and Maddock, T. J.: The Hydraulic Geometry of Stream Channels
and Some Physiographic Implications, Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper, 252, 1–57,
https://doi.org/10.3133/pp252, 1953.
Lewis Jr., W.: Global primary production of lakes: 19th Baldi Memorial
Lecture, Inland Waters, 1, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.5268/IW-1.1.384, 2011.
Li, Z., Sobek, A., and Radke, M.: Fate of pharmaceuticals and their
transformation products in four small European rivers receiving treated
wastewater, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 5614–5621, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b06327, 2016.
Liang, J., Yang, Q., Sun, T., Martin, J. D., Sun, H., and Li, L.: MIKE 11
model-based water quality model as a tool for the evaluation of water
quality management plans, J. Water Supply Res. T., 64, 708–718, https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2015.048, 2015.
Lindim, C., Van Gils, J., and Cousins, I. T.: A large-scale model for simulating
the fate and transport of organic contaminants in river basins, Chemosphere,
144, 803–810, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2015.09.051, 2016.
Lotze, H. K., Tittensor, D. P., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Eddy, T. D., Cheung,
W. W. L., Galbraith, E. D., Barange, M., Barrier, N., Bianchi, D.,
Blanchard, J. L., Bopp, L., Büchner, M., Bulman, C. M., Carozza, D.
A.., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J. P.., Fulton, E. A., Jennings, S.,
Jones, M. C.., Mackinson, S., Maury, O., Niiranen, S., Oliveros-Ramos, R.,
Roy, T., Fernandes, J. A.., Schewe, J., Shin, Y.-J., Silva, T. A. M..,
Steenbeek, J., Stock, C. A.. Verley, P., Volkholz, J., Walker, N. D., and Worm,
B.: Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean
biomass declines with climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 12907–12912, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116, 2019.
MacLeod, M., von Waldow, H., Tay, P., Armitage, J. M., Wöhrnschimmel,
H., Riley, W. J., McKone, T. E., and Hungerbuhler, K.: BETR global – A
geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate
model, Environ. Pollut., 159, 1442–1445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2011.01.038, 2011.
Marcé, R., von Schiller, D., Aguilera, R., Martí, E., and Bernal, S.:
Contribution of hydrologic opportunity and biogeochemical reactivity to the
variability of nutrient retention in river networks, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 32, 376–388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005677, 2018.
Nassef, M., Matsumoto, S., Seki, M., Khalil, F., Kang, I. J., Shimasaki, Y.,
Oshime, Y., and Honjo, T.: Acute effects of triclosan, diclofenac and
carbamazepine on feeding performance of Japanese medaka fish (Oryzias
latipes), Chemosphere, 80, 1095–1100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2010.04.073, 2010.
O'Callaghan, J. F. and Mark, D. M.: The extraction of drainage networks from
digital elevation data, Comput. Vision Graph., 28, 328–344,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0734-189X(84)80011-0, 1984.
Oldenkamp, R., Hoeks, S., Čengić, M., Barbarossa, V., Burns, E. E., Boxall, A. B., and Ragas, A. M.: A high-resolution spatial model to predict exposure to pharmaceuticals in European surface waters: EPiE, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 12494–12503, 2018.
Pistocchi, A.: GIS Based Chemical Fate Modeling: Principles and
Applications, Wiley, ISBN: 978-1-118-05997-5, 2014.
Pistocchi, A., Marinov, D., Pontes, S., and Gawlik, B. M.: Continental scale
inverse modeling of common organic water contaminants in European rivers,
Environ. Pollut., 162, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2011.10.031, 2012.
Postigo, C., de Alda, M. J. L., and Barceló, D.: Drugs of abuse and their
metabolites in the Ebro River basin: occurrence in sewage and surface water,
sewage treatment plants removal efficiency, and collective drug usage
estimation, Environ. Int., 36, 75–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2009.10.004, 2010.
QGIS Development Team: QGIS Geographic Information System, Open Sourcer
Geospatial Foundation Project, 2018.
Rice, J. and Westerhoff, P.: High levels of endocrine pollutants in US streams
during low flow due to insufficient wastewater dilution, Nat. Geosci., 10,
587–591, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2984, 2017.
Richardson, B. J., Lam, P. K., and Martin, M.: Emerging chemicals of concern:
pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in Asia, with particular
reference to Southern China, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 50, 913–920, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2005.06.034, 2005.
Rudd, R. L.: Chemicals in the environment, Calif. Med., 113, 27–32, 1970.
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M.,
Zink, M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx, A.: Anthropogenic warming
exacerbates European soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
421–426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5, 2018.
Santhi, C., Srinivasan, R., Arnold, J. G., and Williams, J. R.: A modeling
approach to evaluate the impacts of water quality management plans
implemented in a watershed in Texas, Environ. Modell. Softw., 21,
1141–1157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.05.013, 2005.
Schulze, K., Hunger, M., and Döll, P.: Simulating river flow velocity on global scale, Adv. Geosci., 5, 133–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-133-2005, 2005.
Stewart, M., Olsen, G., Hickey, C. W., Ferreira, B., Jelić, A.,
Petrović, M., and Barcelo, D.: A survey of emerging contaminants in the
estuarine receiving environment around Auckland, New Zealand, Sci. Total
Environ., 468, 202–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.08.039, 2014.
Strokal, M., Emiel Spanier, J., Kroeze, C., Koelmans, A. A., Flörke, M.,
Franssen, W., Hofstra, N., Langan, S., Tang, T., van Vliet, M. T. H., Wada,
Y., Wang, M., van Wijnen, J., and Williams, R.: Global multi-pollutant modelling
of water quality: scientific challenges and future directions, Curr. Opin.
Env. Sust., 36, 116–125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.11.004, 2019.
Ternes, T. A.: Occurrence of drugs in German sewage treatment plants and
rivers, Water Res., 32, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0043-1354(98)00099-2, 1998.
Todd, P. A. and Sorkin, E. M.: Diclofenac sodium, Drugs, 35, 244–285,
https://doi.org/10.2165/00003495-198835030-00004, 1998.
UN General Assembly: Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development, Resolution A/RES/70/1, available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld (last access: September 2018), 2015.
Van Wijngaarden, M.: A two dimensional model for suspended sediment
transport in the southern branch of the Rhine–Meuse estuary, The
Netherlands, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 24, 1173–1188, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199912)24:13<1173::AID-ESP25>3.0.CO;2-N, 1999.
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D.,
Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A.,
Liermann, C. R., and Davies, P. M.: Global threats to human water security and
river biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440, 2010.
Woolway, R. I. and Merchant, C. J.: Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes
in response to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 12, 271–276, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x, 2019.
Wu, H., Kimball, J. S., Li, H, Huang, M., Ruby Leung, L., and Adler, R. F.: A new
global river network database for macroscale hydrologic modeling, Water
Resour. Res., 48, W09701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012313, 2012.
Zhang, L., Cao, Y., Hao, X., Zhang, Y., and Liu, J.: Application of the GREAT-ER
model for environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol and nonylphenol
ethoxylates in China, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 22, 18531–18540, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-5352-3, 2015.
Zhang, Y., Geißen, S.-U., and Gal, C.: Carbamazepine and diclofenac: Removal
in wastewater treatment plants and occurrence in water bodies, Chemosphere,
73, 1151–1161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2008.07.086, 2008.
Short summary
GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of pharmaceutical-like compounds in the global river network. The model considers the consumption of pharmaceuticals by humans, differentiates between pharmaceutical load treated in wastewater treatment plants from that directly delivered to streams and rivers, and integrates lakes and reservoirs in calculations. GLOBAL-FATE is a powerful tool for pollutant impact studies at the global scale.
GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of...
