Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018
Model description paper
 | 
25 Jan 2018
Model description paper |  | 25 Jan 2018

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Alexander Pasternack on behalf of the Authors (18 Oct 2017)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Nov 2017) by James Annan
ED: Publish as is (05 Dec 2017) by James Annan
AR by Alexander Pasternack on behalf of the Authors (13 Dec 2017)
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Short summary
We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.