Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Model description paper
25 Jan 2018
Model description paper |  | 25 Jan 2018

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Alexander Pasternack on behalf of the Authors (18 Oct 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Nov 2017) by James Annan
ED: Publish as is (05 Dec 2017) by James Annan
Short summary
We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.