Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018

Model description paper 25 Jan 2018

Model description paper | 25 Jan 2018

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

Alexander Pasternack et al.

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Short summary
We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.