Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Model description paper
25 Jan 2018
Model description paper |  | 25 Jan 2018

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich

Model code and software

Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration -- DeFoReSt 1.0 A. Pasternack, J. Bhend, M. A. Liniger, H. W. Rust, W. A. Müller, and U. Ulbrich

Short summary
We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.