Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-105-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-105-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
06 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |
| 06 Jan 2017
Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6
Gill M. Martin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Nicholas P. Klingaman
National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate and Department of
Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Aurel F. Moise
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
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Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate time scales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Gill M. Martin, Richard C. Levine, José M. Rodriguez, and Michael Vellinga
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1007–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1007-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1007-2021, 2021
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Our study highlights a number of different techniques that can be employed to investigate the sources of model error. We demonstrate how this methodology can be used to identify the regions and model components responsible for the development of long-standing errors in the Asian summer monsoon. Once these are known, further work can be done to explore the local processes contributing to this behaviour and their sensitivity to changes in physical parameterisations and/or model resolution.
Axel Lauer, Colin Jones, Veronika Eyring, Martin Evaldsson, Stefan Hagemann, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Romain Roehrig, and Shiyu Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, 2018
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Nicholas P. Klingaman, Gill M. Martin, and Aurel Moise
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 57–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-57-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-57-2017, 2017
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Weather and climate models show large errors in the frequency, intensity and persistence of daily rainfall, particularly in the tropics. We introduce a set of diagnostics to reveal the spatial and temporal scales of precipitation in models and compare them to satellite observations to inform development efforts. Although models show similar errors in 3 h precipitation, at the time step and gridpoint level some produce coherent precipitation and others exhibit worrying quasi-random behavior.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
M.-H. Cho, K.-O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G.-H. Lim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, 2015
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate time scales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Pier Luigi Vidale, Nicholas P. Klingaman, and Thomas C. M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, 2021
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Much of the rainfall in tropical regions comes from organised cloud bands called convergence zones (CZs). These bands have hundreds of kilometers. In South America (SA), they cause intense rain for long periods of time. To study these systems, we need to define and identify them with computer code. We propose a definition of CZs based on the the pathways of air, selecting regions where air masses originated in separated regions meet. This method identifies important mechanisms of rain in SA.
Gill M. Martin, Richard C. Levine, José M. Rodriguez, and Michael Vellinga
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1007–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1007-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1007-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study highlights a number of different techniques that can be employed to investigate the sources of model error. We demonstrate how this methodology can be used to identify the regions and model components responsible for the development of long-standing errors in the Asian summer monsoon. Once these are known, further work can be done to explore the local processes contributing to this behaviour and their sensitivity to changes in physical parameterisations and/or model resolution.
Liang Guo, Ruud J. van der Ent, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Marie-Estelle Demory, Pier Luigi Vidale, Andrew G. Turner, Claudia C. Stephan, and Amulya Chevuturi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6011–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6011-2020, 2020
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Precipitation over East Asia simulated in the Met Office Unified Model is compared with observations. Moisture sources of EA precipitation are traced using a moisture tracking model. Biases in moisture sources are linked to biases in precipitation. Using the tracking model, changes in moisture sources can be attributed to changes in SST, circulation and associated evaporation. This proves that the method used in this study is useful to identify the causes of biases in regional precipitation.
Yingxia Gao, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Charlotte A. DeMott, and Pang-Chi Hsu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5191–5209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5191-2020, 2020
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Both the air–sea coupling and ocean mean state affect the fidelity of simulated boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). To elucidate their relative effects on the simulated BSISO, a set of experiments was conducted using a superparameterized AGCM and its coupled version. Both air–sea coupling and cold ocean mean state improve the BSISO amplitude due to the suppression of the overestimated variance, while the former (latter) could further upgrade (degrade) the BSISO propagation.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
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The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Simon C. Peatman and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4693-2018, 2018
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We investigate the simulation of the Indian monsoon in the UK Met Office climate model. We simulate both the atmosphere and the ocean (which can interact with each other) and compare against simulating the atmosphere alone. Atmosphere–ocean interactions make the modelled average monsoon climate less realistic because the sea surface temperature is wrong in the model, but the interactions make individual rain events, in which storms propagate northwards over the Indian Ocean, more realistic.
Axel Lauer, Colin Jones, Veronika Eyring, Martin Evaldsson, Stefan Hagemann, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Romain Roehrig, and Shiyu Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, 2018
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Nicholas P. Klingaman, Gill M. Martin, and Aurel Moise
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 57–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-57-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-57-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and climate models show large errors in the frequency, intensity and persistence of daily rainfall, particularly in the tropics. We introduce a set of diagnostics to reveal the spatial and temporal scales of precipitation in models and compare them to satellite observations to inform development efforts. Although models show similar errors in 3 h precipitation, at the time step and gridpoint level some produce coherent precipitation and others exhibit worrying quasi-random behavior.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
M.-H. Cho, K.-O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G.-H. Lim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, 2015
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
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Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
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Photochemical box models, crucial for understanding tropospheric chemistry, face challenges due to slow computational efficiency with large chemical equations. The model introduced in this study, ROMAC, boosts efficiency by up to 96 % using an advanced atmospheric solver and an adaptive optimization algorithm. Moreover, ROMAC exceeds traditional box models in evaluating the impact of physical processes on pollutant concentrations.
Lina Vitali, Kees Cuvelier, Antonio Piersanti, Alexandra Monteiro, Mario Adani, Roberta Amorati, Agnieszka Bartocha, Alessandro D'Ausilio, Paweł Durka, Carla Gama, Giulia Giovannini, Stijn Janssen, Tomasz Przybyła, Michele Stortini, Stijn Vranckx, and Philippe Thunis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6029–6047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6029-2023, 2023
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Air quality forecasting models play a key role in fostering short-term measures aimed at reducing human exposure to air pollution. Together with this role comes the need for a thorough assessment of the model performances to build confidence in models’ capabilities, in particular when model applications support policymaking. In this paper, we propose an evaluation methodology and test it on several domains across Europe, highlighting its strengths and room for improvement.
Wenfu Tang, Louisa K. Emmons, Helen M. Worden, Rajesh Kumar, Cenlin He, Benjamin Gaubert, Zhonghua Zheng, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Sara-Eva Martinez-Alonso, Claire Granier, Antonin Soulie, Kathryn McKain, Bruce C. Daube, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea Thompson, and Pieternel Levelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6001–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, 2023
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The new MUSICAv0 model enables the study of atmospheric chemistry across all relevant scales. We develop a MUSICAv0 grid for Africa. We evaluate MUSICAv0 with observations and compare it with a previously used model – WRF-Chem. Overall, the performance of MUSICAv0 is comparable to WRF-Chem. Based on model–satellite discrepancies, we find that future field campaigns in an eastern African region (30°E–45°E, 5°S–5°N) could substantially improve the predictive skill of air quality models.
Shuzhuang Feng, Fei Jiang, Zheng Wu, Hengmao Wang, Wei He, Yang Shen, Lingyu Zhang, Yanhua Zheng, Chenxi Lou, Ziqiang Jiang, and Weimin Ju
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5949–5977, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5949-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5949-2023, 2023
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We document the system development and application of a Regional multi-Air Pollutant Assimilation System (RAPAS v1.0). This system is developed to optimize gridded source emissions of CO, SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, and coarse PM10 on a regional scale via simultaneously assimilating surface measurements of CO, SO2, NO2, PM2.5, and PM10. A series of sensitivity experiments demonstrates the advantage of the “two-step” inversion strategy and the robustness of the system in estimating the emissions.
Megan A. Stretton, William Morrison, Robin J. Hogan, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5931–5947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, 2023
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Cities' materials and forms impact radiative fluxes. We evaluate the SPARTACUS-Urban multi-layer approach to modelling longwave radiation, describing realistic 3D geometry statistically using the explicit DART (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) model. The temperature configurations used are derived from thermal camera observations. SPARTACUS-Urban accurately predicts longwave fluxes, with a low computational time (cf. DART), but has larger errors with sunlit/shaded surface temperatures.
Daehyeon Han, Jungho Im, Yeji Shin, and Juhyun Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5895–5914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5895-2023, 2023
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To identify the key factors affecting quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) using deep learning (DL), we carried out a comprehensive evaluation and analysis. We compared four key factors: DL model, length of the input sequence, loss function, and ensemble approach. Generally, U-Net outperformed ConvLSTM. Loss function and ensemble showed potential for improving performance when they synergized well. The length of the input sequence did not significantly affect the results.
Fabien Margairaz, Balwinder Singh, Jeremy A. Gibbs, Loren Atwood, Eric R. Pardyjak, and Rob Stoll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5729–5754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5729-2023, 2023
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The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost fast-response framework. It provides high-resolution wind and concentration information to study complex problems, such as spore or smoke transport, urban pollution, and air quality. This paper presents the particle dispersion model and its validation against analytical solutions and wind-tunnel data for a mock-urban setting. In all cases, the model provides accurate results with competitive computational performance.
Tao Wang, Hang Liu, Jie Li, Shuai Wang, Youngseob Kim, Yele Sun, Wenyi Yang, Huiyun Du, Zhe Wang, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5585–5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5585-2023, 2023
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This paper developed a two-way coupled module in a new version of a regional urban–street network model, IAQMS-street v2.0, in which the mass flux from streets to background is considered. Test cases are defined to evaluate the performance of IAQMS-street v2.0 in Beijing by comparing it with that simulated by IAQMS-street v1.0 and a regional model. The contribution of local emissions and the influence of on-road vehicle control measures on air quality are evaluated by using IAQMS-street v2.0.
Denis E. Sergeev, Nathan J. Mayne, Thomas Bendall, Ian A. Boutle, Alex Brown, Iva Kavčič, James Kent, Krisztian Kohary, James Manners, Thomas Melvin, Enrico Olivier, Lokesh K. Ragta, Ben Shipway, Jon Wakelin, Nigel Wood, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5601–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5601-2023, 2023
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Three-dimensional climate models are one of the best tools we have to study planetary atmospheres. Here, we apply LFRic-Atmosphere, a new model developed by the Met Office, to seven different scenarios for terrestrial planetary climates, including four for the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1e, a primary target for future observations. LFRic-Atmosphere reproduces these scenarios within the spread of the existing models across a range of key climatic variables, justifying its use in future exoplanet studies.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Xueying Liu, Yuxuan Wang, Shailaja Wasti, Wei Li, Ehsan Soleimanian, James Flynn, Travis Griggs, Sergio Alvarez, John T. Sullivan, Maurice Roots, Laurence Twigg, Guillaume Gronoff, Timothy Berkoff, Paul Walter, Mark Estes, Johnathan W. Hair, Taylor Shingler, Amy Jo Scarino, Marta Fenn, and Laura Judd
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5493–5514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5493-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5493-2023, 2023
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With a comprehensive suite of ground-based and airborne remote sensing measurements during the 2021 TRacking Aerosol Convection ExpeRiment – Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) campaign in Houston, this study evaluates the simulation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the ozone vertical profile by a high-resolution (1.33 km) 3-D photochemical model Weather Research and Forecasting-driven GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC).
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5323–5338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, 2023
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Precipitation collects airborne particles and deposits these on the ground. This process is called wet deposition and greatly determines how airborne radioactive particles (released routinely or accidentally) contaminate the surface. In this work we present a new method to improve the calculation of wet deposition in computer models. We apply this method to the existing model FLEXPART by simulating the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011) and show that it improves the simulation of wet deposition.
Thibaud Sarica, Alice Maison, Yelva Roustan, Matthias Ketzel, Steen Solvang Jensen, Youngseob Kim, Christophe Chaillou, and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5281–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5281-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5281-2023, 2023
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A new version of the Model of Urban Network of Intersecting Canyons and Highways (MUNICH) is developed to represent heterogeneities of concentrations in streets. The street volume is discretized vertically and horizontally to limit the artificial dilution of emissions and concentrations. This new version is applied to street networks in Copenhagen and Paris. The comparisons to observations are improved, with higher concentrations of pollutants emitted by traffic at the bottom of the street.
Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Jeonghwan Kim, Gangwoong Lee, Joonyoung Ahn, and Cheol-Hee Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5251–5263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023, 2023
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In this study, the framework for calculating reactive nitrogen species using a deep neural network (RND) was developed. It works through simple Python codes and provides high-accuracy reactive nitrogen oxide data. In the first version (RNDv1.0), the model calculates the nitrous acid (HONO) in urban areas, which has an important role in producing O3 and fine aerosol.
Daniel Yazgi and Tinja Olenius
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5237–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, 2023
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We present flexible tools to implement aerosol formation rate predictions in climate and chemical transport models. New-particle formation is a significant but uncertain factor affecting aerosol numbers and an active field within molecular modeling which provides data for assessing formation rates for different chemical species. We introduce tools to generate and interpolate formation rate lookup tables for user-defined data, thus enabling the easy inclusion and testing of formation schemes.
Vineet Yadav, Subhomoy Ghosh, and Charles E. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5219–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, 2023
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Measuring the performance of inversions in linear Bayesian problems is crucial in real-life applications. In this work, we provide analytical forms of the local and global sensitivities of the estimated fluxes with respect to various inputs. We provide methods to uniquely map the observational signal to spatiotemporal domains. Utilizing this, we also show techniques to assess correlations between the Jacobians that naturally translate to nonstationary covariance matrix components.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Sabine Griessbach, Zhongyin Cai, Yi Heng, and Xue Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023, 2023
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We introduce new and revised chemistry and physics modules in the Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) Lagrangian transport model aiming to improve the representation of volcanic SO2 transport and depletion. We test these modules in a case study of the Ambae eruption in July 2018 in which the SO2 plume underwent wet removal and convection. The lifetime of SO2 shows highly variable and complex dependencies on the atmospheric conditions at different release heights.
Bernhard M. Enz, Jan P. Engelmann, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5093–5112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023, 2023
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An algorithm to track tropical cyclones in model simulation data has been developed. The algorithm uses many combinations of varying parameter thresholds to detect weaker phases of tropical cyclones while still being resilient to false positives. It is shown that the algorithm performs well and adequately represents the tropical cyclone activity of the underlying simulation data. The impact of false positives on overall tropical cyclone activity is shown to be insignificant.
Sepehr Fathi, Mark Gordon, and Yongsheng Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5069–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5069-2023, 2023
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We have combined various capabilities within a WRF model to generate simulations of atmospheric pollutant dispersion at 50 m resolution. The study objective was to resolve transport processes at the scale of measurements to assess and optimize aircraft-based emission rate retrievals. Model performance evaluation resulted in agreement within 5 % of observed meteorological and within 1–2 standard deviations of observed wind fields. Mass was conserved in the model within 5 % of input emissions.
Dylan Reynolds, Ethan Gutmann, Bert Kruyt, Michael Haugeneder, Tobias Jonas, Franziska Gerber, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, 2023
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The challenge of running geophysical models is often compounded by the question of where to obtain appropriate data to give as input to a model. Here we present the HICAR model, a simplified atmospheric model capable of running at spatial resolutions of hectometers for long time series or over large domains. This makes physically consistent atmospheric data available at the spatial and temporal scales needed for some terrestrial modeling applications, for example seasonal snow forecasting.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Bufan Xu, Wei Han, Mijie Pang, and Hai Xiang Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4867–4882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4867-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4867-2023, 2023
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Machine learning models have gained great popularity in air quality prediction. However, they are only available at air quality monitoring stations. In contrast, chemical transport models (CTM) provide predictions that are continuous in the 3D field. Owing to complex error sources, they are typically biased. In this study, we proposed a gridded prediction with high accuracy by fusing predictions from our regional feature selection machine learning prediction (RFSML v1.0) and a CTM prediction.
Manu Goudar, Juliëtte C. S. Anema, Rajesh Kumar, Tobias Borsdorff, and Jochen Landgraf
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4835–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, 2023
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A framework was developed to automatically detect plumes and compute emission estimates with cross-sectional flux method (CFM) for biomass burning events in TROPOMI CO datasets using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data. The emissions were more reliable when changing plume height in downwind direction was used instead of constant injection height. The CFM had uncertainty even when the meteorological conditions were accurate; thus there is a need for better inversion models.
Drew C. Pendergrass, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Kevin W. Bowman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4793–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4793-2023, 2023
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We have built a tool called CHEEREIO that allows scientists to use observations of pollutants or gases in the atmosphere, such as from satellites or surface stations, to update supercomputer models that simulate the Earth. CHEEREIO uses the difference between the model simulations of the atmosphere and real-world observations to come up with a good guess for the actual composition of our atmosphere, the true emissions of various pollutants, and whatever else they may want to study.
Yosuke Yamazaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4749–4766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4749-2023, 2023
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The Earth's atmosphere can support various types of global-scale waves. Some waves propagate eastward and others westward, and they can have different zonal wavenumbers. The Fourier–wavelet analysis is a useful technique for identifying different components of global-scale waves and their temporal variability. This paper introduces an easy-to-implement method to derive Fourier–wavelet spectra from 2-D space–time data. Application examples are presented using atmospheric models.
Bok H. Baek, Carlie Coats, Siqi Ma, Chi-Tsan Wang, Yunyao Li, Jia Xing, Daniel Tong, Soontae Kim, and Jung-Hun Woo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4659–4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, 2023
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To enable the direct feedback effects of aerosols and local meteorology in an air quality modeling system without any computational bottleneck, we have developed an inline meteorology-induced emissions coupler module within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to dynamically model the complex MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) on-road mobile emissions inline without a separate dedicated emissions processing model like SMOKE.
Christoph Neuhauser, Maicon Hieronymus, Michael Kern, Marc Rautenhaus, Annika Oertel, and Rüdiger Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4617–4638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4617-2023, 2023
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Numerical weather prediction models rely on parameterizations for sub-grid-scale processes, which are a source of uncertainty. We present novel visual analytics solutions to analyze interactively the sensitivities of a selected prognostic variable to multiple model parameters along trajectories regarding similarities in temporal development and spatiotemporal relationships. The proposed workflow is applied to cloud microphysical sensitivities along coherent strongly ascending trajectories.
Liangke Huang, Shengwei Lan, Ge Zhu, Fade Chen, Junyu Li, and Lilong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The existing ZTD models have limitations such as using a single fitting function, neglecting daily cycle variations, and relying on only one resolution grid data for modeling. This model considers the daily-cycle variation and latitude factor of ZTD, using the sliding window algorithm based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The ZTD data from 545 radiosonde stations and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis data are used to validate the accuracy of the GGZTD-P model.
Yingqi Zheng, Minttu Havu, Huizhi Liu, Xueling Cheng, Yifan Wen, Hei Shing Lee, Joyson Ahongshangbam, and Leena Järvi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4551–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4551-2023, 2023
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The performance of the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated against the observed surface exchanges (fluxes) of heat and carbon dioxide in a densely built neighborhood in Beijing. The heat flux modeling is noticeably improved by using the observed maximum conductance and by optimizing the vegetation phenology modeling. SUEWS also performs well in simulating carbon dioxide flux.
Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Hiroshi Yamashita, Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Christian Weder, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4405–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, 2023
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Climate-optimized aircraft trajectories avoid atmospheric regions with a large climate impact due to aviation emissions. This requires spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate impact. We propose using algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) for CO2 and non-CO2 effects (ozone, methane, water vapor, contrail cirrus). Merged aCCFs combine individual aCCFs by assuming aircraft-specific parameters and climate metrics. Technically this is done with a Python library.
Andreas A. Beckert, Lea Eisenstein, Annika Oertel, Tim Hewson, George C. Craig, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4427–4450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4427-2023, 2023
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We investigate the benefit of objective 3-D front detection with modern interactive visual analysis techniques for case studies of extra-tropical cyclones and comparisons of frontal structures between different numerical weather prediction models. The 3-D frontal structures show agreement with 2-D fronts from surface analysis charts and augment them in the vertical dimension. We see great potential for more complex studies of atmospheric dynamics and for operational weather forecasting.
Zhenxin Liu, Yuanhao Chen, Yuhang Wang, Cheng Liu, Shuhua Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4385–4403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4385-2023, 2023
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The heterogeneous layout of urban buildings leads to the complex wind field in and over the urban canopy. Large discrepancies between the observations and the current simulations result from misunderstanding the character of the wind field. The Inhomogeneous Wind Scheme in Urban Street (IWSUS) was developed to simulate the heterogeneity of the wind speed in a typical street and then improve the simulated energy budget in the lower atmospheric layer over the urban canopy.
Kai Cao, Qizhong Wu, Lingling Wang, Nan Wang, Huaqiong Cheng, Xiao Tang, Dongqing Li, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4367–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4367-2023, 2023
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Offline performance experiment results show that the GPU-HADVPPM on a V100 GPU can achieve up to 1113.6 × speedups to its original version on an E5-2682 v4 CPU. A series of optimization measures are taken, and the CAMx-CUDA model improves the computing efficiency by 128.4 × on a single V100 GPU card. A parallel architecture with an MPI plus CUDA hybrid paradigm is presented, and it can achieve up to 4.5 × speedup when launching eight CPU cores and eight GPU cards.
Laurent Menut
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023, 2023
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This study analyzes forecasts that were made in 2021 to help trigger measurements during the CADDIWA experiment. The WRF and CHIMERE models were run each day, and the first goal is to quantify the variability of the forecast as a function of forecast leads and forecast location. The possibility of using the different leads as an ensemble is also tested. For some locations, the correlation scores are better with this approach. This could be tested on operational forecast chains in the future.
Emily de Jong, John Ben Mackay, Oleksii Bulenok, Anna Jaruga, and Sylwester Arabas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4193–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4193-2023, 2023
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In clouds, collisional breakup occurs when two colliding droplets splinter into new, smaller fragments. Particle-based modeling approaches often do not represent breakup because of the computational demands of creating new droplets. We present a particle-based breakup method that preserves the computational efficiency of these methods. In a series of simple demonstrations, we show that this representation alters cloud processes in reasonable and expected ways.
Caiyi Jin, Qiangqiang Yuan, Tongwen Li, Yuan Wang, and Liangpei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4137–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4137-2023, 2023
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The semi-empirical physical approach derives PM2.5 with strong physical significance. However, due to the complex optical characteristic, the physical parameters are difficult to express accurately. Thus, combining the atmospheric physical mechanism and machine learning, we propose an optimized model. It creatively embeds the random forest model into the physical PM2.5 remote sensing approach to simulate a physical parameter. Our method shows great optimized performance in the validations.
Cyril Caram, Sophie Szopa, Anne Cozic, Slimane Bekki, Carlos A. Cuevas, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4041–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, 2023
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We studied the role of halogenated compounds (containing chlorine, bromine and iodine), emitted by natural processes (mainly above the oceans), in the chemistry of the lower layers of the atmosphere. We introduced this relatively new chemistry in a three-dimensional climate–chemistry model and looked at how this chemistry will disrupt the ozone. We showed that the concentration of ozone decreases by 22 % worldwide and that of the atmospheric detergent, OH, by 8 %.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Jinghui Lian, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Alexandre Danjou, and Thomas Lauvaux
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3997–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023, 2023
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Monitoring of CO2 emissions is key to the development of reduction policies. Local emissions, from cities or power plants, may be estimated from CO2 plumes detected in satellite images. CO2 plumes generally have a weak signal and are partially concealed by highly variable background concentrations and instrument errors, which hampers their detection. To address this problem, we propose and apply deep learning methods to detect the contour of a plume in simulated CO2 satellite images.
Min-Seop Ahn, Paul A. Ullrich, Peter J. Gleckler, Jiwoo Lee, Ana C. Ordonez, and Angeline G. Pendergrass
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3927–3951, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3927-2023, 2023
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We introduce a framework for regional-scale evaluation of simulated precipitation distributions with 62 climate reference regions and 10 metrics and apply it to evaluate CMIP5 and CMIP6 models against multiple satellite-based precipitation products. The common model biases identified in this study are mainly associated with the overestimated light precipitation and underestimated heavy precipitation. These biases persist from earlier-generation models and have been slightly improved in CMIP6.
Christine Wiedinmyer, Yosuke Kimura, Elena C. McDonald-Buller, Louisa K. Emmons, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Wenfu Tang, Keenan Seto, Maxwell B. Joseph, Kelley C. Barsanti, Annmarie G. Carlton, and Robert Yokelson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3873–3891, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3873-2023, 2023
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The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) provides daily global estimates of emissions from open fires based on satellite detections of hot spots. This version has been updated to apply MODIS and VIIRS satellite fire detection and better represents both large and small fires. FINNv2.5 generates more emissions than FINNv1 and is in general agreement with other fire emissions inventories. The new estimates are consistent with satellite observations, but uncertainties remain regionally and by pollutant.
Lichao Yang, Wansuo Duan, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3827–3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3827-2023, 2023
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An approach is proposed to refine a ground meteorological observation network to improve the PM2.5 forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. A cost-effective observation network is obtained and makes the relevant PM2.5 forecasts assimilate fewer observations but achieve the forecasting skill comparable to or higher than that obtained by assimilating all ground station observations, suggesting that many of the current ground stations can be greatly scattered to avoid much unnecessary work.
Abhishekh Kumar Srivastava, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Deeksha Rastogi, Pouya Vahmani, Andrew Jones, and Richard Grotjahn
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3699–3722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3699-2023, 2023
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Stakeholders need high-resolution regional climate data for applications such as assessing water availability and mountain snowpack. This study examines 3 h and 24 h historical precipitation over the contiguous United States in the 12 km WRF version 4.2.1-based dynamical downscaling of the ERA5 reanalysis. WRF improves precipitation characteristics such as the annual cycle and distribution of the precipitation maxima, but it also displays regionally and seasonally varying precipitation biases.
David R. Shaw, Toby J. Carter, Helen L. Davies, Ellen Harding-Smith, Elliott C. Crocker, Georgia Beel, Zixu Wang, and Nicola Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1328, 2023
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Exposure to air pollution is one of the greatest risks to human health, and it is indoors, where we spend upwards of 90 % of our time, that our exposure is greatest. The INdoor CHEMical model in Python (INCHEM-Py) is a new, community-led box-model that tracks the evolution and fate of atmospheric chemical pollutants indoors. We have shown the processes simulated by INCHEM-Py, its ability to model experimental data, and how it may be used to develop further understanding of indoor air chemistry.
Cited articles
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Short summary
We analyse and evaluate tropical rainfall variability in the MetUM-GA6 configuration at four different horizontal resolutions, plus one in which the convection parameterization has been switched off. Tropical deep convective rainfall in this model tends to be intermittent in space and time. This behaviour is largely independent of model resolution. Switching off the deep convection parameterization (at ~10 km resolution) results in isolated, but persistent, rainfall on the gridscale.
We analyse and evaluate tropical rainfall variability in the MetUM-GA6 configuration at four...
