Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1661-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1661-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
14 Aug 2014
Model description paper |
| 14 Aug 2014
Decoupling the effects of clear atmosphere and clouds to simplify calculations of the broadband solar irradiance at ground level
A. Oumbe
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy – Sophia Antipolis, France
now at: Total New Energies, R&D – Solar, Paris la Défense, France
Z. Qu
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy – Sophia Antipolis, France
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy – Sophia Antipolis, France
M. Lefèvre
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy – Sophia Antipolis, France
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy – Sophia Antipolis, France
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS, UMR 8539, Ecole Polytechnique, France
now at: Reuniwatt, Sainte-Clotilde, Réunion, France
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Hadrien Verbois, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Vadim Becquet, Benoit Gschwind, and Philippe Blanc
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4165–4181, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4165-2023, 2023
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Solar surface irradiance (SSI) estimations inferred from satellite images are essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the solar resource, which is crucial in many fields. This study examines the recent data-driven methods for inferring SSI from satellite images and explores their strengths and weaknesses. The results suggest that while these methods show great promise, they sometimes dramatically underperform and should probably be used in conjunction with physical approaches.
William Wandji Nyamsi, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Antti Arola, and Lucien Wald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2001–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2001-2023, 2023
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The McClear service provides estimates of surface solar irradiances in cloud-free conditions. By comparing McClear estimates to 1 min measurements performed in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Maldives Archipelago in the Indian Ocean, McClear accurately estimates global irradiance and tends to overestimate direct irrradiance. This work establishes a general overview of the performance of the McClear service.
Benoît Tournadre, Benoît Gschwind, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Xuemei Chen, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva, and Philippe Blanc
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3683–3704, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3683-2022, 2022
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Solar radiation received by the Earth's surface is valuable information for various fields like the photovoltaic industry or climate research. Pictures taken from satellites can be used to estimate the solar radiation from cloud reflectivity. Two issues for a good estimation are different instrumentations and orbits. We modify a widely used method that is today only used on geostationary satellites, so it can be applied on instruments on different orbits and with different sensitivities.
Mathilde Marchand, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Laurent Saboret, Etienne Wey, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 143–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-143-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-143-2020, 2020
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The present work deals with the spatial consistency of two well-known databases of solar radiation received at ground level: the CAMS Radiation Service database version 3.2, abbreviated as CAMS-Rad and the HelioClim-3 database version 5, abbreviated as HC3v5. Both databases are derived from satellite images. For both databases, there is no noticeable spatial trend in the standard deviation.
Claire Thomas, Stephen Dorling, William Wandji Nyamsi, Lucien Wald, Stéphane Rubino, Laurent Saboret, Mélodie Trolliet, and Etienne Wey
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 229–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-229-2019, 2019
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Solar radiation is the second main important factors for plant growth after temperature. More precisely, PAR, which stands for Photosynthetically Active Radiation, is the portion of the solar spectrum that is efficient for photosynthesis. Due to the scarcity of ground measurements, researchers have developed methods to estimate this variable from satellite imagery. This paper compares several methods to assess satellite-derived PAR against measurements in the UK and in France.
Frederik Kurzrock, Hannah Nguyen, Jerome Sauer, Fabrice Chane Ming, Sylvain Cros, William L. Smith Jr., Patrick Minnis, Rabindra Palikonda, Thomas A. Jones, Caroline Lallemand, Laurent Linguet, and Gilles Lajoie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3939–3954, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3939-2019, 2019
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This study assesses the assimilation of cloud water path retrievals in three phases (ice, supercooled, and liquid), derived from Meteosat-8, into a limited-area model using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The ability of the method to improve cloud analyses in the southwest Indian Ocean and short-term forecasts of global horizontal irradiance on Réunion Island is demonstrated using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
Mathilde Marchand, Mireille Lefèvre, Laurent Saboret, Etienne Wey, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 103–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-103-2019, 2019
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The present work deals with two well-known databases of hourly mean of solar irradiance that are derived from satellite imagery. The spatial consistency of the uncertainties of these databases is verified against measurements performed within a dense network of ground stations in The Netherlands from the Royal Meteorological Institute KNMI for the period 2014–2017.
The obtained results are presented for both databases. And a discussion is proposed.
Maxence Descheemaecker, Matthieu Plu, Virginie Marécal, Marine Claeyman, Francis Olivier, Youva Aoun, Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald, Jonathan Guth, Bojan Sič, Jérôme Vidot, Andrea Piacentini, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1251–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, 2019
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The future Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MeteoSat Third Generation is expected to improve the detection and the quantification of aerosols. The study assesses the potential of FCI/VIS04 channel for monitoring air pollution in Europe. An observing system simulation experiment in MOCAGE is developed, and they show a large positive impact of the assimilation over a 4-month period and particularly during a severe pollution episode. The added value of geostationary data is also assessed.
Mélodie Trolliet, Jakub P. Walawender, Bernard Bourlès, Alexandre Boilley, Jörg Trentmann, Philippe Blanc, Mireille Lefèvre, and Lucien Wald
Ocean Sci., 14, 1021–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1021-2018, 2018
Alberto Troccoli, Clare Goodess, Phil Jones, Lesley Penny, Steve Dorling, Colin Harpham, Laurent Dubus, Sylvie Parey, Sandra Claudel, Duc-Huy Khong, Philip E. Bett, Hazel Thornton, Thierry Ranchin, Lucien Wald, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Matteo De Felice, David Brayshaw, Emma Suckling, Barbara Percy, and Jon Blower
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 191–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-191-2018, 2018
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The European Climatic Energy Mixes, an EU Copernicus Climate Change Service project, has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonal to long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. Its concept, methodology and some results are presented here.
Mélodie Trolliet and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 127–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-127-2018, 2018
Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Lucien Wald, Thierry Ranchin, Laurent Dubus, and Alberto Troccoli
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 51–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-51-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-51-2018, 2018
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Our approach allows estimating the total photovoltaic (PV) power generation in different European countries from meteorological data. It is aimed at being easy to implement since it does not require any plant information or prior knowledge on the installed PV plants.
Marie Opálková, Martin Navrátil, Vladimír Špunda, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 837–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-837-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-837-2018, 2018
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Files with irradiances of a few spectral regions of incident solar radiation and some meteorological variables including concentrations of some air pollutants measured for 2.5 years at 3 stations in Ostrava (CZ) were prepared. Special attention was given to the data quality and the process of quality check was described. This database offers an ensemble of data with high temporal resolution and creates a source on radiation in relation with environment and vegetation in polluted areas of cities.
Mathilde Marchand, Abdellatif Ghennioui, Etienne Wey, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 21–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-21-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-21-2018, 2018
Pascal Kuhn, Stefan Wilbert, Christoph Prahl, Dominik Garsche, David Schüler, Thomas Haase, Lourdes Ramirez, Luis Zarzalejo, Angela Meyer, Philippe Blanc, and Robert Pitz-Paal
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 11–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-11-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-11-2018, 2018
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Downward-facing shadow cameras might play a major role in future energy meteorology. Shadow cameras image shadows directly on the ground from an elevated position. They are used to validate other systems (e.g. all-sky imager based nowcasting systems, cloud speed sensors or satellite forecasts) and can potentially provide short term forecasts for solar power plants. Such forecasts are needed for electricity grids with high penetrations of renewable energy and solar power plants.
Marc Bengulescu, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-19-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-19-2018, 2018
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We employ the Hilbert–Huang transform to study the temporal variability in time series of daily means of the surface solar irradiance (SSI) at different locations around the world. The data have a significant spectral peak corresponding to the yearly variability cycle and feature quasi-stochastic high-frequency "weather noise", irrespective of the geographical location or of the local climate. Our findings can improve models for estimating SSI from satellite images or forecasts of the SSI.
Philippe Blanc, Benoit Gschwind, Lionel Ménard, and Lucien Wald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-141, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The construction of worldwide maps of surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters is presented. The original data stems from the NASA which is making available maps of BRDF parameters from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument. The original data has been averaged for each month for the period 2004–2011 and a spatial completion of data was performed. The dataset in NetCDF is referenced by doi:10.23646/85d2cd5f-ccaa-482e-a4c9-b6e0c59d966c.
William Wandji Nyamsi, Phillipe Blanc, John A. Augustine, Antti Arola, and Lucien Wald
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-512, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This paper proposes a new, fast and accurate method for estimating photosynthetically active radiation at ground level in cloud-free conditions at any place and time. The method performs very well with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service products as inputs describing the state of the atmosphere. An accuracy that is close to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves is reached. We believe that our research will be widely used in the near future.
William Wandji Nyamsi, Mikko R. A. Pitkänen, Youva Aoun, Philippe Blanc, Anu Heikkilä, Kaisa Lakkala, Germar Bernhard, Tapani Koskela, Anders V. Lindfors, Antti Arola, and Lucien Wald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4965–4978, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4965-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4965-2017, 2017
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This paper proposes a new, fast and accurate method for estimating UV fluxes at ground level in cloud-free conditions at any place and time. The method performs very well with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service products as inputs describing the state of the atmosphere. An accuracy that is close to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves is reached. We believe that our research will be widely used in the near future.
Philip D. Jones, Colin Harpham, Alberto Troccoli, Benoit Gschwind, Thierry Ranchin, Lucien Wald, Clare M. Goodess, and Stephen Dorling
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 471–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-471-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-471-2017, 2017
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The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity.The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S), and can be accessed at present from ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu.
Marc Bengulescu, Philippe Blanc, Alexandre Boilley, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 35–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-35-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-35-2017, 2017
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This study investigates the characteristic time-scales of variability found in long-term time-series of daily means of surface solar irradiance (SSI). Estimates of SSI from satellite-derived HelioClim-3 and radiation products from ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 re-analyses are compared to WRDC measurements. It is found that HelioClim-3 renders a more accurate picture of the variability found in ground measurements, not only globally, but also with respect to individual characteristic time-scales.
Mathilde Marchand, Nasser Al-Azri, Armel Ombe-Ndeffotsing, Etienne Wey, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 7–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-7-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-7-2017, 2017
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The solar hourly irradiation received at ground level estimated by the databases HelioClim-3v4, HelioClim-3v5 and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service are compared to measurements made in stations in Oman and Abu Dhabi. The correlation coefficients are greater than 0.97. The relative bias is less than 5%. Each database captures accurately the temporal and spatial variability of the irradiance field. The three databases are reliable sources to assess solar radiation.
Claire Thomas, Laurent Saboret, Etienne Wey, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-129-2016, 2016
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HelioClim-3 (version 4) is a satellite-derived solar surface irradiance database available at d-1 until 2015. To fulfill the requirements of numerous users, a new service based on the principle of persistence has been developed; it provides solar data in real time and forecasts until the end of the current day. The service exhibits good performances for 15 min and 1 h ahead forecasts, and degrades as the temporal horizon increases. Several customers have so far purchased this service.
Marc Bengulescu, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-121-2016, 2016
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The continuous wavelet (CWT) and the Hilbert–Huang transforms (HHT) are compared for the analysis of the temporal variability on ten years of daily means of the surface solar irradiance. In both cases, the variability exhibits a plateau between scales of two days and three months that has decreasing power with increasing scale, a spectral peak corresponding to the annual cycle, and a low power regime in-between. The HHT is shown to be suitable for inspecting the variability of the measurements.
Claire Thomas, Etienne Wey, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 81–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-81-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-81-2016, 2016
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Several satellite-derived solar surface irradiance databases provide long-term and homogeneously distributed information on the solar potential at ground level. This paper presents the validation results of three of these databases: HelioClim-3 (versions 4 and 5) and the CAMS radiation service, versus the measurements of 42 stations in Brazil. Despite a slight overestimation of the CAMS radiation service, the three databases are suitable for studies of the solar resources in Brazil.
Mireille Lefèvre and Lucien Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 21–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-21-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-21-2016, 2016
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The new CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) McClear service is a practical easy-to-use tool to estimate the solar direct and global irradiances received at ground level in cloud-free conditions at any place any time. This article presents validation against 1 min measurements made at three very close stations in Israel in desert conditions. The good results demonstrate the accuracy of McClear and its ability to capture the temporal and spatial variability of the irradiance field.
Mohamed Korany, Mohamed Boraiy, Yehia Eissa, Youva Aoun, Magdy M. Abdel Wahab, Stéphane C. Alfaro, Philippe Blanc, Mossad El-Metwally, Hosni Ghedira, Katja Hungershoefer, and Lucien Wald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 105–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-105-2016, 2016
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A database of global and diffuse components of the surface solar hourly irradiation measured from 2004 to 2010 at eight Egyptian meteorological stations is presented. At three sites, the direct component is also available. In addition, a series of meteorological variables is provided at the same hourly resolution. The measurements and quality checks applied to the data are detailed. Finally, 13500 to 29000 measurements of global and diffuse hourly irradiation are available at each site.
P. Blanc and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-1-2016, 2016
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Time series of hourly measurements or modelled values of surface solar irradiation are increasingly available. Currently, no solar zenith and azimuth angles are associated to each measurement whereas such angles are necessary for handling the measured or modelled irradiations. A method is proposed to assess such angles with a great accuracy. It makes use of two modelled time-series that can be computed using the web site www.soda-pro.com for any site in the world.
Y. Eissa, P. Blanc, L. Wald, and H. Ghedira
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 5099–5112, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5099-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5099-2015, 2015
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This study investigates whether the spectral aerosol optical properties of the AERONET stations are sufficient for an accurate modelling of the monochromatic beam and circumsolar irradiances under cloud-free conditions in a desert environment. By comparing the modelled irradiances against reference ground measurements, the monochromatic beam and circumsolar irradiances may very well be modelled using a set of inputs extracted from the AERONET data.
W. Wandji Nyamsi, A. Arola, P. Blanc, A. V. Lindfors, V. Cesnulyte, M. R. A. Pitkänen, and L. Wald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7449–7456, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7449-2015, 2015
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A novel model of the absorption of radiation by ozone in the UV bands [283, 307]nm and [307, 328]nm yields improvements in the modeling of the transmissivity in these bands. This model is faster than detailed spectral calculations and is as accurate with maximum errors of respectively 0.0006 and 0.0143. How to practically implement this new parameterization in a radiative transfer model is discussed for the case of libRadtran.
W. Wandji Nyamsi, B. Espinar, P. Blanc, and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-5-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-5-2015, 2015
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We propose an innovative method to estimate the Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) under clear sky conditions derived from the fast approach of Kato et al. (1999). It provides very good results better than the two state-of-the-art empirical methods computing the daily mean of PAR from the daily mean of total irradiance. In addition, this technique may be extended to be able to accurately estimate other spectral quantities taking into account absorption of plants photosynthetic pigments.
P. Blanc, C. Coulaud, and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-1-2015, 2015
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New Caledonia experiences a decrease in surface solar irradiation since 2004, of order of 4% of the mean yearly irradiation, and amounts to 9 W m 2. The preeminent roles of the changes in cloud cover and to a lesser extent, those in aerosol optical depth on the decrease in yearly irradiation are evidenced. The study highlights the role of data sets offering a worldwide coverage in understanding changes in solar radiation and planning large solar energy plants.
J. Badosa, J. Wood, P. Blanc, C. N. Long, L. Vuilleumier, D. Demengel, and M. Haeffelin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 4267–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-4267-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-4267-2014, 2014
Z. Qu, B. Gschwind, M. Lefevre, and L. Wald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3927–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3927-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3927-2014, 2014
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The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3) provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of atmospheric properties. A method is proposed to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of advanced global aerosol property forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC projects.
M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, 2013
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GPU-HADVPPM4HIP V1.0: using the heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) to speed up the piecewise parabolic method in the CAMx (v6.10) air quality model on China's domestic GPU-like accelerator
Preliminary evaluation of the effect of electro-coalescence with conducting sphere approximation on the formation of warm cumulus clouds using SCALE-SDM version 0.2.5–2.3.0
Similarity-Based Analysis of Atmospheric Organic Compounds for Machine Learning Applications
Cell tracking -based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
Exploring the footprint representation of microwave radiance observations in an Arctic limited-area data assimilation system
Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system
Description and validation of Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic (VERT) 1.0, an R-based framework for estimating road transport emissions from traffic flows
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
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To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
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Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
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Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
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This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
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In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3321, 2024
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The effectiveness of assimilation system and its sensitivity to ensemble member size and length of assimilation window have been investigated. This study advances our understanding about the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimension local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate matter polluted environment.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2884, 2024
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Assimilating Ground-based microwave radiometers' observations into numerical weather prediction models holds significant promise for enhancing forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTM) are crucial for direct data assimilation. We propose a new RTM capable of simulating brightness temperatures observed by GMRs and their Jacobians. Several improvements are introduced to achieve higher accuracy.The RTM align with RTTOV-gb well and can achieve smaller STD in water vapor absorption channels.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
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The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
Lucie Bakels, Daria Tatsii, Anne Tipka, Rona Thompson, Marina Dütsch, Michael Blaschek, Petra Seibert, Katharina Baier, Silvia Bucci, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Stephan Henne, Pirmin Kaufmann, Vincent Lechner, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Ignacio Pisso, Andreas Plach, Rakesh Subramanian, Martin Vojta, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024
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Computer models are essential for improving our understanding of how gases and particles move in the atmosphere. We present an update of the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART. FLEXPART 11 is more accurate due to a reduced number of interpolations and a new scheme for wet deposition. It can simulate non-spherical aerosols and includes linear chemical reactions. It is parallelised using OpenMP and includes new user options. A new user manual details how to use FLEXPART 11.
Jaroslav Resler, Petra Bauerová, Michal Belda, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Vladimír Fuka, Jan Geletič, Radek Jareš, Jan Karel, Josef Keder, Pavel Krč, William Patiño, Jelena Radović, Hynek Řezníček, Matthias Sühring, Adriana Šindelářová, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7513–7537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, 2024
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Detailed modeling of urban air quality in stable conditions is a challenge. We show the unprecedented sensitivity of a large eddy simulation (LES) model to meteorological boundary conditions and model parameters in an urban environment under stable conditions. We demonstrate the crucial role of boundary conditions for the comparability of results with observations. The study reveals a strong sensitivity of the results to model parameters and model numerical instabilities during such conditions.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2676, 2024
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This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using Artificial Neural Networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed, and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison of networks architectures and information fusion methods allows the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Jorge E. Pachón, Mariel A. Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Huneeus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Andreas Uppstu, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, María de Fátima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7467–7512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, 2024
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Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world, with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC, with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain was assembled as a first step towards an air quality forecasting system.
David Ho, Michał Gałkowski, Friedemann Reum, Santiago Botía, Julia Marshall, Kai Uwe Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7401–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric model users often overlook the impact of the land–atmosphere interaction. This study accessed various setups of WRF-GHG simulations that ensure consistency between the model and driving reanalysis fields. We found that a combination of nudging and frequent re-initialization allows certain improvement by constraining the soil moisture fields and, through its impact on atmospheric mixing, improves atmospheric transport.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2815, 2024
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate that effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense and consists well with radiative model calculations and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, Marcus J. Thatcher, Son C. H. Truong, Rachael N. Isphording, and John L. McGregor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7285–7315, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, 2024
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We use a comprehensive approach to select a subset of CMIP6 models for dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia, taking into account model performance, model independence, data availability and the range of future climate projections. The standardised benchmarking framework is applied to assess model performance through both statistical and process-based metrics. Ultimately, we identify two independent model groups that are suitable for dynamical downscaling in the Southeast Asian region.
Ingrid Super, Tia Scarpelli, Arjan Droste, and Paul I. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7263–7284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, 2024
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Monitoring greenhouse gas emission reductions requires a combination of models and observations, as well as an initial emission estimate. Each component provides information with a certain level of certainty and is weighted to yield the most reliable estimate of actual emissions. We describe efforts for estimating the uncertainty in the initial emission estimate, which significantly impacts the outcome. Hence, a good uncertainty estimate is key for obtaining reliable information on emissions.
Álvaro González-Cervera and Luis Durán
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7245–7261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, 2024
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RASCAL is an open-source Python tool designed for reconstructing daily climate observations, especially in regions with complex local phenomena. It merges large-scale weather patterns with local weather using the analog method. Evaluations in central Spain show that RASCAL outperforms ERA20C reanalysis in reconstructing precipitation and temperature. RASCAL offers opportunities for broad scientific applications, from short-term forecasts to local-scale climate change scenarios.
Sun-Young Park, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Kwonil Kim, Gyuwon Lee, and Jason A. Milbrandt
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7199–7218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, 2024
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We enhance the WDM6 scheme by incorporating predicted graupel density. The modification affects graupel characteristics, including fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships. Simulations highlight changes in graupel distribution and precipitation patterns, potentially influencing surface snow amounts. The study underscores the significance of integrating predicted graupel density for a more realistic portrayal of microphysical properties in weather models.
Christos I. Efstathiou, Elizabeth Adams, Carlie J. Coats, Robert Zelt, Mark Reed, John McGee, Kristen M. Foley, Fahim I. Sidi, David C. Wong, Steven Fine, and Saravanan Arunachalam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7001–7027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, 2024
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We present a summary of enabling high-performance computing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) – a state-of-the-science community multiscale air quality model – on two cloud computing platforms through documenting the technologies, model performance, scaling and relative merits. This may be a new paradigm for computationally intense future model applications. We initiated this work due to a need to leverage cloud computing advances and to ease the learning curve for new users.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Jishi Zhang, Qi Tang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7029–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, 2024
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Using high-resolution and state-of-the-art modeling techniques we simulate five atmospheric river events for California to test the capability to represent precipitation for these events. We find that our model is able to capture the distribution of precipitation very well but suffers from overestimating the precipitation amounts over high elevation. Increasing the resolution further has no impact on reducing this bias, while increasing the domain size does have modest impacts.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements in 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Manu Anna Thomas, Klaus Wyser, Shiyu Wang, Marios Chatziparaschos, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria Kanakidou, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Athanasios Nenes, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Abhay Devasthale
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6903–6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, 2024
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Aerosol–cloud interactions occur at a range of spatio-temporal scales. While evaluating recent developments in EC-Earth3-AerChem, this study aims to understand the extent to which the Twomey effect manifests itself at larger scales. We find a reduction in the warm bias over the Southern Ocean due to model improvements. While we see footprints of the Twomey effect at larger scales, the negative relationship between cloud droplet number and liquid water drives the shortwave radiative effect.
Kai Cao, Qizhong Wu, Lingling Wang, Hengliang Guo, Nan Wang, Huaqiong Cheng, Xiao Tang, Dongxing Li, Lina Liu, Dongqing Li, Hao Wu, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6887–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, 2024
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AMD’s heterogeneous-compute interface for portability was implemented to port the piecewise parabolic method solver from NVIDIA GPUs to China's GPU-like accelerators. The results show that the larger the model scale, the more acceleration effect on the GPU-like accelerator, up to 28.9 times. The multi-level parallelism achieves a speedup of 32.7 times on the heterogeneous cluster. By comparing the results, the GPU-like accelerators have more accuracy for the geoscience numerical models.
Ruyi Zhang, Limin Zhou, Shin-ichiro Shima, and Huawei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6761–6774, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, 2024
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Solar activity weakly ionises Earth's atmosphere, charging cloud droplets. Electro-coalescence is when oppositely charged droplets stick together. We introduce an analytical expression of electro-coalescence probability and use it in a warm-cumulus-cloud simulation. Results show that charge cases increase rain and droplet size, with the new method outperforming older ones. The new method requires longer computation time, but its impact on rain justifies inclusion in meteorology models.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, 2024
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning model in atmospheric sciences.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-99, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rainfall. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and then the model skill is evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with 4 open-source models.
Máté Mile, Stephanie Guedj, and Roger Randriamampianina
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6571–6587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, 2024
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Satellite observations provide crucial information about atmospheric constituents in a global distribution that helps to better predict the weather over sparsely observed regions like the Arctic. However, the use of satellite data is usually conservative and imperfect. In this study, a better spatial representation of satellite observations is discussed and explored by a so-called footprint function or operator, highlighting its added value through a case study and diagnostics.
Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6489–6511, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, 2024
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The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6465–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, 2024
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In this study, we present VERT (Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic), an R package designed to estimate transport emissions using traffic estimates and vehicle fleet composition data. Compared to other tools available in the literature, VERT stands out for its user-friendly configuration and flexibility of user input. Case studies demonstrate its accuracy in both urban and regional contexts, making it a valuable tool for air quality management and transport scenario planning.
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