Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1451-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1451-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
16 Jul 2014
Methods for assessment of models |
| 16 Jul 2014
Comparison of the ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var assimilation methods using a stratospheric tracer transport model
S. Skachko
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, 1180, Belgium
Q. Errera
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, 1180, Belgium
R. Ménard
Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada
Y. Christophe
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, 1180, Belgium
S. Chabrillat
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, 1180, Belgium
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The study presents a weakly coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation system that uses coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice short-term forecasts as background states for atmospheric and ocean systems that independently compute atmospheric and ocean analyses. This system leads to better agreement between the coupled atmosphere–ocean analyses and coupled forecasts that have been used operationally for the last year.
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BRAM2 is a 13-year reanalysis of the chemical composition from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere based on the assimilation of the Microwave Limb Sounder observations where eight species are assimilated: O3, H2O, N2O, HNO3, HCl, ClO, CH3Cl and CO. BRAM2 agrees generally well with independent observations in the middle stratosphere, the polar vortex and the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere but also shows several issues in the model and in the observations.
Quentin Errera, Simone Ceccherini, Yves Christophe, Simon Chabrillat, Michaela I. Hegglin, Alyn Lambert, Richard Ménard, Piera Raspollini, Sergey Skachko, Michiel van Weele, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5895–5909, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5895-2016, 2016
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When this study started, its goal was to provide a reanalysis of the stratospheric composition of methane and nitrous oxide, two important sources of hydrogen and nitrogen species in the stratosphere that influence the ozone abundance. However, the goal changed when several issues in the assimilated observations were discovered. Finally, this study illustrates how data assimilation methods can be used to add value to the observations as well as to diagnose their limitations.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2893–2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2893-2016, 2016
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In the present work, we performed a comparison of two broadly used data assimilation algorithms, 4D-Var and EnKF, applied to a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry transport model. The comparison is carried out using carefully calibrated error statistics. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each method applied to real-life conditions of a numerical atmospheric chemistry data assimilation.
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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 375–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-375-2023, 2023
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Simon Chabrillat, Corinne Vigouroux, Yves Christophe, Andreas Engel, Quentin Errera, Daniele Minganti, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Arjo Segers, and Emmanuel Mahieu
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Masatomo Fujiwara, Jonathon S. Wright, Gloria L. Manney, Lesley J. Gray, James Anstey, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, V. Lynn Harvey, Michaela I. Hegglin, Cameron R. Homeyer, John A. Knox, Kirstin Krüger, Alyn Lambert, Craig S. Long, Patrick Martineau, Andrea Molod, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Michelle L. Santee, Susann Tegtmeier, Simon Chabrillat, David G. H. Tan, David R. Jackson, Saroja Polavarapu, Gilbert P. Compo, Rossana Dragani, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yayoi Harada, Chiaki Kobayashi, Will McCarty, Kazutoshi Onogi, Steven Pawson, Adrian Simmons, Krzysztof Wargan, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Cheng-Zhi Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017
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Quentin Errera, Simone Ceccherini, Yves Christophe, Simon Chabrillat, Michaela I. Hegglin, Alyn Lambert, Richard Ménard, Piera Raspollini, Sergey Skachko, Michiel van Weele, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5895–5909, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5895-2016, 2016
Short summary
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When this study started, its goal was to provide a reanalysis of the stratospheric composition of methane and nitrous oxide, two important sources of hydrogen and nitrogen species in the stratosphere that influence the ozone abundance. However, the goal changed when several issues in the assimilated observations were discovered. Finally, this study illustrates how data assimilation methods can be used to add value to the observations as well as to diagnose their limitations.
Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, Yves Christophe, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Andreas Richter, and Henk Eskes
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3071–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3071-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3071-2016, 2016
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We present a model description and benchmark evaluation of an extension of the tropospheric chemistry module in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) with stratospheric chemistry. The stratospheric chemistry originates from the one used in the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE), and is here combined with the modified CB05 chemistry module for the troposphere as currently used operationally in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).
Sergey Skachko, Richard Ménard, Quentin Errera, Yves Christophe, and Simon Chabrillat
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2893–2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2893-2016, 2016
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In the present work, we performed a comparison of two broadly used data assimilation algorithms, 4D-Var and EnKF, applied to a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry transport model. The comparison is carried out using carefully calibrated error statistics. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each method applied to real-life conditions of a numerical atmospheric chemistry data assimilation.
H. Eskes, V. Huijnen, A. Arola, A. Benedictow, A.-M. Blechschmidt, E. Botek, O. Boucher, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, E. Cuevas, R. Engelen, H. Flentje, A. Gaudel, J. Griesfeller, L. Jones, J. Kapsomenakis, E. Katragkou, S. Kinne, B. Langerock, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. Schultz, M. Schulz, N. Sudarchikova, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, A. Wagner, and C. Zerefos
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3523–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, 2015
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The MACC project is preparing the operational atmosphere service of the European Copernicus Programme, and uses data assimilation to combine atmospheric models with available observations. Our paper provides an overview of the aerosol and trace gas validation activity of MACC. Topics are the validation requirements, the measurement data, the assimilation systems, the upgrade procedure, operational aspects and the scoring methods. A summary is provided of recent results, including special events.
A. Inness, A.-M. Blechschmidt, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, M. Crepulja, R. J. Engelen, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, A. Gaudel, F. Hendrick, V. Huijnen, L. Jones, J. Kapsomenakis, E. Katragkou, A. Keppens, B. Langerock, M. de Mazière, D. Melas, M. Parrington, V. H. Peuch, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, M. Suttie, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, A. Wagner, and C. Zerefos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5275–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5275-2015, 2015
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The paper presents results from data assimilation studies with the new Composition-IFS model developed in the MACC project. This system was used in MACC to produce daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition and is now run daily in the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The paper looks at the quality of the CO, O3 and NO2 analysis fields obtained with this system, comparing them against observations, a control run and an older version of the model.
K. Lefever, R. van der A, F. Baier, Y. Christophe, Q. Errera, H. Eskes, J. Flemming, A. Inness, L. Jones, J.-C. Lambert, B. Langerock, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, A. Wagner, and S. Chabrillat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2269–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2269-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2269-2015, 2015
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We validate and discuss the analyses of stratospheric ozone delivered in near-real time between 2009 and 2012 by four different data assimilation systems: IFS-MOZART, BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM. It is shown that the characteristics of the assimilation systems are much less important than those of the assimilated data sets. A correct representation of the vertical distribution of ozone requires satellite observations which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.
A. Schanz, K. Hocke, N. Kämpfer, S. Chabrillat, A. Inness, M. Palm, J. Notholt, I. Boyd, A. Parrish, and Y. Kasai
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-32667-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-32667-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The manuscript describes novel findings in the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone by means of the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the WACCM model. The diurnal variation in ozone has dynamical and photochemical origins which lead to substantial amplitudes especially in the polar, stratospheric regions. The unprecedented, global view on diurnal ozone variation strengthens the implication to correct diurnally sampled satellite observations used for ozone trend estimates.
A. Robichaud and R. Ménard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1769–1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1769-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1769-2014, 2014
A. Inness, F. Baier, A. Benedetti, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, H. Clark, C. Clerbaux, P. Coheur, R. J. Engelen, Q. Errera, J. Flemming, M. George, C. Granier, J. Hadji-Lazaro, V. Huijnen, D. Hurtmans, L. Jones, J. W. Kaiser, J. Kapsomenakis, K. Lefever, J. Leitão, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, A. J. Simmons, M. Suttie, O. Stein, J.-N. Thépaut, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, C. Zerefos, and the MACC team
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4073–4109, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013, 2013
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GPU-HADVPPM4HIP V1.0: using the heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) to speed up the piecewise parabolic method in the CAMx (v6.10) air quality model on China's domestic GPU-like accelerator
Preliminary evaluation of the effect of electro-coalescence with conducting sphere approximation on the formation of warm cumulus clouds using SCALE-SDM version 0.2.5–2.3.0
Similarity-Based Analysis of Atmospheric Organic Compounds for Machine Learning Applications
Exploring the footprint representation of microwave radiance observations in an Arctic limited-area data assimilation system
Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system
Description and validation of Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic (VERT) 1.0, an R-based framework for estimating road transport emissions from traffic flows
Improving the EnSRF in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
AeroMix v1.0.1: a Python package for modeling aerosol optical properties and mixing states
Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP
Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains
Mixed-precision computing in the GRIST dynamical core for weather and climate modelling
A conservative immersed boundary method for the multi-physics urban large-eddy simulation model uDALES v2.0
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Objective identification of meteorological fronts and climatologies from ERA-Interim and ERA5
TAMS: a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets
Development of the adjoint of the unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX) in GEOS-Chem adjoint v36
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
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To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
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Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
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Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
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This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
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In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
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The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
Lucie Bakels, Daria Tatsii, Anne Tipka, Rona Thompson, Marina Dütsch, Michael Blaschek, Petra Seibert, Katharina Baier, Silvia Bucci, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Stephan Henne, Pirmin Kaufmann, Vincent Lechner, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Ignacio Pisso, Andreas Plach, Rakesh Subramanian, Martin Vojta, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024
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Computer models are essential for improving our understanding of how gases and particles move in the atmosphere. We present an update of the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART. FLEXPART 11 is more accurate due to a reduced number of interpolations and a new scheme for wet deposition. It can simulate non-spherical aerosols and includes linear chemical reactions. It is parallelised using OpenMP and includes new user options. A new user manual details how to use FLEXPART 11.
Jaroslav Resler, Petra Bauerová, Michal Belda, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Vladimír Fuka, Jan Geletič, Radek Jareš, Jan Karel, Josef Keder, Pavel Krč, William Patiño, Jelena Radović, Hynek Řezníček, Matthias Sühring, Adriana Šindelářová, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7513–7537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, 2024
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Detailed modeling of urban air quality in stable conditions is a challenge. We show the unprecedented sensitivity of a large eddy simulation (LES) model to meteorological boundary conditions and model parameters in an urban environment under stable conditions. We demonstrate the crucial role of boundary conditions for the comparability of results with observations. The study reveals a strong sensitivity of the results to model parameters and model numerical instabilities during such conditions.
Jorge E. Pachón, Mariel A. Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Huneeus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Andreas Uppstu, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, María de Fátima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7467–7512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, 2024
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Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world, with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC, with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain was assembled as a first step towards an air quality forecasting system.
David Ho, Michał Gałkowski, Friedemann Reum, Santiago Botía, Julia Marshall, Kai Uwe Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7401–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric model users often overlook the impact of the land–atmosphere interaction. This study accessed various setups of WRF-GHG simulations that ensure consistency between the model and driving reanalysis fields. We found that a combination of nudging and frequent re-initialization allows certain improvement by constraining the soil moisture fields and, through its impact on atmospheric mixing, improves atmospheric transport.
Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, Marcus J. Thatcher, Son C. H. Truong, Rachael N. Isphording, and John L. McGregor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7285–7315, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, 2024
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We use a comprehensive approach to select a subset of CMIP6 models for dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia, taking into account model performance, model independence, data availability and the range of future climate projections. The standardised benchmarking framework is applied to assess model performance through both statistical and process-based metrics. Ultimately, we identify two independent model groups that are suitable for dynamical downscaling in the Southeast Asian region.
Ingrid Super, Tia Scarpelli, Arjan Droste, and Paul I. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7263–7284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, 2024
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Monitoring greenhouse gas emission reductions requires a combination of models and observations, as well as an initial emission estimate. Each component provides information with a certain level of certainty and is weighted to yield the most reliable estimate of actual emissions. We describe efforts for estimating the uncertainty in the initial emission estimate, which significantly impacts the outcome. Hence, a good uncertainty estimate is key for obtaining reliable information on emissions.
Álvaro González-Cervera and Luis Durán
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7245–7261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, 2024
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RASCAL is an open-source Python tool designed for reconstructing daily climate observations, especially in regions with complex local phenomena. It merges large-scale weather patterns with local weather using the analog method. Evaluations in central Spain show that RASCAL outperforms ERA20C reanalysis in reconstructing precipitation and temperature. RASCAL offers opportunities for broad scientific applications, from short-term forecasts to local-scale climate change scenarios.
Sun-Young Park, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Kwonil Kim, Gyuwon Lee, and Jason A. Milbrandt
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7199–7218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, 2024
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We enhance the WDM6 scheme by incorporating predicted graupel density. The modification affects graupel characteristics, including fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships. Simulations highlight changes in graupel distribution and precipitation patterns, potentially influencing surface snow amounts. The study underscores the significance of integrating predicted graupel density for a more realistic portrayal of microphysical properties in weather models.
Christos I. Efstathiou, Elizabeth Adams, Carlie J. Coats, Robert Zelt, Mark Reed, John McGee, Kristen M. Foley, Fahim I. Sidi, David C. Wong, Steven Fine, and Saravanan Arunachalam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7001–7027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, 2024
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We present a summary of enabling high-performance computing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) – a state-of-the-science community multiscale air quality model – on two cloud computing platforms through documenting the technologies, model performance, scaling and relative merits. This may be a new paradigm for computationally intense future model applications. We initiated this work due to a need to leverage cloud computing advances and to ease the learning curve for new users.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Jishi Zhang, Qi Tang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7029–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, 2024
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Using high-resolution and state-of-the-art modeling techniques we simulate five atmospheric river events for California to test the capability to represent precipitation for these events. We find that our model is able to capture the distribution of precipitation very well but suffers from overestimating the precipitation amounts over high elevation. Increasing the resolution further has no impact on reducing this bias, while increasing the domain size does have modest impacts.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements in 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Manu Anna Thomas, Klaus Wyser, Shiyu Wang, Marios Chatziparaschos, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria Kanakidou, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Athanasios Nenes, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Abhay Devasthale
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6903–6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, 2024
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Aerosol–cloud interactions occur at a range of spatio-temporal scales. While evaluating recent developments in EC-Earth3-AerChem, this study aims to understand the extent to which the Twomey effect manifests itself at larger scales. We find a reduction in the warm bias over the Southern Ocean due to model improvements. While we see footprints of the Twomey effect at larger scales, the negative relationship between cloud droplet number and liquid water drives the shortwave radiative effect.
Kai Cao, Qizhong Wu, Lingling Wang, Hengliang Guo, Nan Wang, Huaqiong Cheng, Xiao Tang, Dongxing Li, Lina Liu, Dongqing Li, Hao Wu, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6887–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, 2024
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AMD’s heterogeneous-compute interface for portability was implemented to port the piecewise parabolic method solver from NVIDIA GPUs to China's GPU-like accelerators. The results show that the larger the model scale, the more acceleration effect on the GPU-like accelerator, up to 28.9 times. The multi-level parallelism achieves a speedup of 32.7 times on the heterogeneous cluster. By comparing the results, the GPU-like accelerators have more accuracy for the geoscience numerical models.
Ruyi Zhang, Limin Zhou, Shin-ichiro Shima, and Huawei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6761–6774, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, 2024
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Solar activity weakly ionises Earth's atmosphere, charging cloud droplets. Electro-coalescence is when oppositely charged droplets stick together. We introduce an analytical expression of electro-coalescence probability and use it in a warm-cumulus-cloud simulation. Results show that charge cases increase rain and droplet size, with the new method outperforming older ones. The new method requires longer computation time, but its impact on rain justifies inclusion in meteorology models.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, 2024
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning model in atmospheric sciences.
Máté Mile, Stephanie Guedj, and Roger Randriamampianina
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6571–6587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, 2024
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Satellite observations provide crucial information about atmospheric constituents in a global distribution that helps to better predict the weather over sparsely observed regions like the Arctic. However, the use of satellite data is usually conservative and imperfect. In this study, a better spatial representation of satellite observations is discussed and explored by a so-called footprint function or operator, highlighting its added value through a case study and diagnostics.
Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6489–6511, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, 2024
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The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6465–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, 2024
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In this study, we present VERT (Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic), an R package designed to estimate transport emissions using traffic estimates and vehicle fleet composition data. Compared to other tools available in the literature, VERT stands out for its user-friendly configuration and flexibility of user input. Case studies demonstrate its accuracy in both urban and regional contexts, making it a valuable tool for air quality management and transport scenario planning.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2197, 2024
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a more efficient implementation of the serial and batch versions of the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) algorithm in CIF.
Sam P. Raj, Puna Ram Sinha, Rohit Srivastava, Srinivas Bikkina, and Damu Bala Subrahamanyam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6379–6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, 2024
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A Python successor to the aerosol module of the OPAC model, named AeroMix, has been developed, with enhanced capabilities to better represent real atmospheric aerosol mixing scenarios. AeroMix’s performance in modeling aerosol mixing states has been evaluated against field measurements, substantiating its potential as a versatile aerosol optical model framework for next-generation algorithms to infer aerosol mixing states and chemical composition.
Angeline G. Pendergrass, Michael P. Byrne, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Penelope Maher, and Mark J. Webb
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6365–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, 2024
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The width of the tropical rain belt affects many aspects of our climate, yet we do not understand what controls it. To better understand it, we present a method to change it in numerical model experiments. We show that the method works well in four different models. The behavior of the width is unexpectedly simple in some ways, such as how strong the winds are as it changes, but in other ways, it is more complicated, especially how temperature increases with carbon dioxide.
Tianning Su and Yunyan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6319–6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, 2024
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Using 2 decades of field observations over the Southern Great Plains, this study developed a deep-learning model to simulate the complex dynamics of boundary layer clouds. The deep-learning model can serve as the cloud parameterization within reanalysis frameworks, offering insights into improving the simulation of low clouds. By quantifying biases due to various meteorological factors and parameterizations, this deep-learning-driven approach helps bridge the observation–modeling divide.
Siyuan Chen, Yi Zhang, Yiming Wang, Zhuang Liu, Xiaohan Li, and Wei Xue
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6301–6318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, 2024
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This study explores strategies and techniques for implementing mixed-precision code optimization within an atmosphere model dynamical core. The coded equation terms in the governing equations that are sensitive (or insensitive) to the precision level have been identified. The performance of mixed-precision computing in weather and climate simulations was analyzed.
Sam O. Owens, Dipanjan Majumdar, Chris E. Wilson, Paul Bartholomew, and Maarten van Reeuwijk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6277–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, 2024
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Designing cities that are resilient, sustainable, and beneficial to health requires an understanding of urban climate and air quality. This article presents an upgrade to the multi-physics numerical model uDALES, which can simulate microscale airflow, heat transfer, and pollutant dispersion in urban environments. This upgrade enables it to resolve realistic urban geometries more accurately and to take advantage of the resources available on current and future high-performance computing systems.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Folkert Boersma, Enrico Dammers, and Charlotte Bryan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2225, 2024
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOX emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals derived from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOX emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of NO2 lifetime, NOX:NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces a strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Allison A. Wing, Levi G. Silvers, and Kevin A. Reed
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6195–6225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the experimental design for a model intercomparison project to study tropical clouds and climate. It is a follow-up from a prior project that used a simplified framework for tropical climate. The new project adds one new component – a specified pattern of sea surface temperatures as the lower boundary condition. We provide example results from one cloud-resolving model and one global climate model and test the sensitivity to the experimental parameters.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Doung H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-117, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This article introduces the MESSy DWARF. Usually, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to full dynamical models to build chemistry climate models. However, due to the modular concept of MESSy, and the newly developed DWARF component, it is now possible to create simplified models containing just one or some process descriptions. This renders very useful for technical optimisation (e.g., GPU porting) and can be used to create less complex models, e.g., a chemical box model.
Philip G. Sansom and Jennifer L. Catto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6137–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, 2024
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Weather fronts bring a lot of rain and strong winds to many regions of the mid-latitudes. We have developed an updated method of identifying these fronts in gridded data that can be used on new datasets with small grid spacing. The method can be easily applied to different datasets due to the use of open-source software for its development and shows improvements over similar previous methods. We present an updated estimate of the average frequency of fronts over the past 40 years.
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio and Zachary L. Moon
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6035–6049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, 2024
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TAMS is an open-source Python-based package for tracking and classifying mesoscale convective systems that can be used to study observed and simulated systems. Each step of the algorithm is described in this paper with examples showing how to make use of visualization and post-processing tools within the package. A unique and valuable feature of this tracker is its support for unstructured grids in the identification stage and grid-independent tracking.
Irene C. Dedoussi, Daven K. Henze, Sebastian D. Eastham, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5689–5703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric model gradients provide a meaningful tool for better understanding the underlying atmospheric processes. Adjoint modeling enables computationally efficient gradient calculations. We present the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX). With this development, the GEOS-Chem adjoint model can capture stratospheric ozone and other processes jointly with tropospheric processes. We apply it to characterize the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species.
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