Articles | Volume 19, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9441-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9441-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
07 Oct 2026
Model description paper |
| 07 Oct 2026
| 07 Oct 2026
The one-Layer Antarctic model for Dynamical Downscaling of Ice–ocean Exchanges (LADDIE) version 2.0
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Franka Jesse
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Constantijn J. Berends
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Related authors
Ronja Reese, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Clara Burgard, Erwin Lambert, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Paul R. Holland, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Dutrieux, Shenjie Zhou, Golsa Talebigheshlaghi, and Yanmei Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
An important factor in projections of the Antarctic contribution to future sea level rise is the Southern Ocean. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 aims to provide ice sheet projections, and here we introduce the protocol for handling the ocean in Antarctica. It describes how ocean changes from global atmosphere-ocean models can be used in Antarctic simulations and how ocean conditions can be translated into melt rates, taking into account oceanographic knowledge.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4237, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Strong ocean-driven melting can create gaps in floating ice shelves. Because the pathways of meltwater beneath these gaps are poorly understood, we tested two contrasting scenarios: one in which meltwater loses heat and momentum within the gaps, and another in which it continues to flow across them. These different representations substantially alter projected ice mass loss, highlighting meltwater treatment across ice-shelf gaps as a key source of uncertainty.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Klaus Wyser, Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfthout, and Irene Trombini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
As Antarctica loses more ice, increasing amounts of fresh water enter the ocean and can change Earth's climate. We used a climate model in which Antarctic ice loss responds to changing ocean conditions. We found that this feedback first increases warming near the ice shelves but later slows both Antarctic and global warming by changing the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. These results show that including these interactions is important for improving long-term sea-level and climate projections.
Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet can project how much it will melt in response to climate change. That depends on the properties of the rock and the water beneath the ice, about which we know very little. That means the amount of sea-level in the future is very uncertain. Techniques to reduce that uncertainty do not always work as well as expected. We must get actual measurements of the bottom of the ice to improve our understanding of the ice sheet, and our knowledge of its future.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that flows into the surrounding ocean can lead to enhanced warming of the seawater, thereby again increasing melting and sea-level rise. This process, however, is not currently included in climate models. Through a simple mathematical approach, we find that this process can lead to more melting and greater sea-level rise, possibly increasing the Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise by 80 %.
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck, Bert Wouters, Erwin Lambert, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 17, 3785–3801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The ice shelves in Antarctica are melting from below, which puts their stability at risk. Therefore, it is important to observe how much and where they are melting. In this study we use high-resolution satellite imagery to derive 50 m resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf. With the high resolution of our product we are able to uncover small-scale features which may in the future help us to understand the state and fate of the Antarctic ice shelves and their (in)stability.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Ronja Reese, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Clara Burgard, Erwin Lambert, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Paul R. Holland, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Dutrieux, Shenjie Zhou, Golsa Talebigheshlaghi, and Yanmei Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
An important factor in projections of the Antarctic contribution to future sea level rise is the Southern Ocean. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 aims to provide ice sheet projections, and here we introduce the protocol for handling the ocean in Antarctica. It describes how ocean changes from global atmosphere-ocean models can be used in Antarctic simulations and how ocean conditions can be translated into melt rates, taking into account oceanographic knowledge.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4237, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Strong ocean-driven melting can create gaps in floating ice shelves. Because the pathways of meltwater beneath these gaps are poorly understood, we tested two contrasting scenarios: one in which meltwater loses heat and momentum within the gaps, and another in which it continues to flow across them. These different representations substantially alter projected ice mass loss, highlighting meltwater treatment across ice-shelf gaps as a key source of uncertainty.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Klaus Wyser, Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfthout, and Irene Trombini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
As Antarctica loses more ice, increasing amounts of fresh water enter the ocean and can change Earth's climate. We used a climate model in which Antarctic ice loss responds to changing ocean conditions. We found that this feedback first increases warming near the ice shelves but later slows both Antarctic and global warming by changing the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. These results show that including these interactions is important for improving long-term sea-level and climate projections.
Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet can project how much it will melt in response to climate change. That depends on the properties of the rock and the water beneath the ice, about which we know very little. That means the amount of sea-level in the future is very uncertain. Techniques to reduce that uncertainty do not always work as well as expected. We must get actual measurements of the bottom of the ice to improve our understanding of the ice sheet, and our knowledge of its future.
James R. Jordan, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Abele, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jowan M. Barnes, Tijn Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Javier Blasco, Gong Cheng, Youngmin Choi, Stephen L. Cornford, Cruz Garcia-Molina, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Angelika Humbert, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Marisa Montoya, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Mathieu Morlighem, Tyler Pelle, Alexander Robinson, Martin Rückamp, Hélène Seroussi, Yanmei Tian, Luisa Wagner, Roderick S. W. van de Wal, Liyun Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Ann-Sofie P. Zinck, Bert Wouters, Franka Jesse, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 19, 5509–5529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5509-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean-driven basal melting of ice shelves can carve channels into the ice shelf base. These channels represent potential weak areas of the ice shelf. On George VI Ice shelf we discover a new channel which onset coincides with the 2015 El-Nino Southern Oscillation event. Since the channel has developed rapidly and is located within a highly channelized area close to the ice shelf front it poses a potential thread of ice shelf retreat.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that flows into the surrounding ocean can lead to enhanced warming of the seawater, thereby again increasing melting and sea-level rise. This process, however, is not currently included in climate models. Through a simple mathematical approach, we find that this process can lead to more melting and greater sea-level rise, possibly increasing the Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise by 80 %.
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Constantijn J. Berends
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ice sheets solve mathematical equations describing the physics of flowing ice. While observations from satellites or other sources can be used to check if these equations describe the ice sheet correctly, one must first ensure the model solves the equations correctly. I here present a small extension to a previously derived solution on paper to one of those equations, so that modellers can verify their models.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck, Bert Wouters, Erwin Lambert, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 17, 3785–3801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The ice shelves in Antarctica are melting from below, which puts their stability at risk. Therefore, it is important to observe how much and where they are melting. In this study we use high-resolution satellite imagery to derive 50 m resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf. With the high resolution of our product we are able to uncover small-scale features which may in the future help us to understand the state and fate of the Antarctic ice shelves and their (in)stability.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Cited articles
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. a, b, c
Alley, K. E., Scambos, T. A., and Alley, R. B.: The role of channelized basal melt in ice-shelf stability: recent progress and future priorities, Ann. Glaciol., 63, 18–22, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.5, 2022. a, b
Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP+), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP+) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d
Beckmann, J., Reese, R., McCormack, F. S., Cook, S., Bird, L., Gwyther, D., Richards, D., Scheiter, M., Wang, Y., Seroussi, H., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez‐Solas, J., Asay‐Davis, X. S., Barre, J., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet‐Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pelle, T., Quiquet, A., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Zhao, C., and Zwinger, T.: Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025. a, b
Berends, C. J., Goelzer, H., Reerink, T. J., Stap, L. B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022. a
Berends, C. J., Stap, L. B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Strong impact of sub-shelf melt parameterisation on ice-sheet retreat in idealised and realistic Antarctic topography, J. Glaciol., 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.33, 2023. a, b
Berends, C. J., Azizi, V., Bernales, J. A., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model (UFEMISM) version 2.0 – Part 1: Description and idealised experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025. a, b, c, d
Bett, D. T., Bradley, A. T., Williams, C. R., Holland, P. R., Arthern, R. J., and Goldberg, D. N.: Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector, The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024. a
Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Reese, R., Jenkins, A., and Mathiot, P.: An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022. a
Danilov, S., Sidorenko, D., Wang, Q., and Jung, T.: The Finite-volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model (FESOM2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 765–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-765-2017, 2017. a
Davis, P. E. D., Nicholls, K. W., Holland, D. M., Schmidt, B. E., Washam, P., Riverman, K. L., Arthern, R. J., Vaňková, I., Eayrs, C., Smith, J. A., Anker, P. G. D., Mullen, A. D., Dichek, D., Lawrence, J. D., Meister, M. M., Clyne, E., Basinski-Ferris, A., Rignot, E., Queste, B. Y., Boehme, L., Heywood, K. J., Anandakrishnan, S., and Makinson, K.: Suppressed basal melting in the eastern Thwaites Glacier grounding zone, Nature, 614, 479–485, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05586-0, 2023. a, b
Davison, B. J., Hogg, A. E., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Wuite, J., Nagler, T., Greene, C. A., Andreasen, J., and Engdahl, M. E.: Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021, Science Advances, 9, eadi0186, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186, 2023. a, b
De Rydt, J. and Naughten, K.: Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024. a
Dutrieux, P., Rydt, J. D., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Abrahamsen, E. P., and Schröder, M.: Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability, Science, 343, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244341, 2014. a
Favier, L., Jourdain, N. C., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Mathiot, P.: Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019. a
Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Porter-Smith, R., Cook, S., Cougnon, E., Gwyther, D. E., Huneke, W. G. C., Rosevear, M. G., Asay-Davis, X., Boeira Dias, F., Dinniman, M. S., Holland, D., Kusahara, K., Naughten, K. A., Nicholls, K. W., Pelletier, C., Richter, O., Seroussi, H., and Timmermann, R.: Multi-model estimate of Antarctic ice-shelf basal mass budget and ocean drivers, The Cryosphere, 19, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, 2025. a, b, c, d, e, f
Gaspar, P.: Modeling the Seasonal Cycle of the Upper Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018<0161:MTSCOT>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Gladish, C. V., Holland, D. M., Holland, P. R., and Price, S. F.: Ice-shelf basal channels in a coupled ice/ocean model, J. Glaciol., 58, 1227–1244, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J003, 2012. a
Goldberg, D. N.: A variationally derived, depth-integrated approximation to a higher-order glaciological flow model, J. Glaciol., 57, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311795306763, 2011. a
Goldberg, D. N. and Holland, P. R.: The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 127, e2021JF006570, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006570, 2022. a
Hirano, D., Tamura, T., Kusahara, K., Fujii, M., Yamazaki, K., Nakayama, Y., Ono, K., Itaki, T., Aoyama, Y., Simizu, D., Mizobata, K., Ohshima, K. I., Nogi, Y., Rintoul, S. R., van Wijk, E., Greenbaum, J. S., Blankenship, D. D., Saito, K., and Aoki, S.: On-shelf circulation of warm water toward the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, Nat. Commun., 14, 4955, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39764-z, 2023. a
Holland, D. M. and Jenkins, A.: Modeling Thermodynamic Ice–Ocean Interactions at the Base of an Ice Shelf, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1787–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1787:MTIOIA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Howat, I. M., Porter, C., Smith, B. E., Noh, M.-J., and Morin, P.: The Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 665–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-665-2019, 2019. a
Jacobs, S., Hellmer, H., Doake, C., Jenkins, A., and Frolich, R.: Melting of ice shelves and mass balance of Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 38, 375–387, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022143000002252, 1992. a
Jenkins, A.: A one-dimensional model of ice shelf-ocean interaction, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 96, 20671–20677, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JC01842, 1991. a
Jenkins, A., Nicholls, K. W., and Corr, H. F. J.: Observation and Parameterization of Ablation at the Base of Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 2298–2312, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4317.1, 2010. a, b
Jenkins, A., Shoosmith, D., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Kim, T. W., Lee, S. H., Ha, H. K., and Stammerjohn, S.: West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability, Nat. Geosci., 11, 733–738, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4, 2018. a
Lambert, E.: Code supporting The one-Layer Antarctic model for Dynamical Downscaling of Ice–ocean Exchanges (LADDIE) version 2.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18678915, 2026. a, b
Lambert, E. and Burgard, C.: Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models, The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025. a
Lambert, E., Jüling, A., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Holland, P. R.: Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0), The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
Lazeroms, W. M. J., Jenkins, A., Gudmundsson, G. H., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes, The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018. a
Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., and Asay-Davis, X. S.: Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021. a
Lilly, J. R., Engwirda, D., Capodaglio, G., Higdon, R. L., and Petersen, M. R.: CFL Optimized Forward–Backward Runge–Kutta Schemes for the Shallow-Water Equations, Mon. Weather Rev., 151, 3191–3208, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0113.1, 2023. a, b, c
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Ethé, C., Iovino, D., Lea, D., Lévy, C., Lovato, T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Rousset, C., Storkey, D., Vancoppenolle, M., Müller, S., Nurser, G., Bell, M., and Samson, G.: NEMO ocean engine, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1464816, 2019. a, b
McCormack, F. S., Cook, S., Goldberg, D. N., Nakayama, Y., Seroussi, H., Nias, I., An, L., Slater, D., and Hattermann, T.: The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 12, 00036, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00036, 2024. a, b
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., van den Broeke, M. R., van Ommen, T. D., van Wessem, M., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a, b
Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., and Rignot, E.: MEaSUREs Antarctic Boundaries for IPY 2007–2009 from Satellite Radar (NSIDC-0709, Version 2), Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/AXE4121732AD, 2017. a, b
Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sørensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallée, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023. a
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015. a
Pelletier, C., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Haubner, K., Helsen, S., Huot, P.-V., Kittel, C., Klein, F., Le clec'h, S., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Marchi, S., Massonnet, F., Mathiot, P., Moravveji, E., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Pattyn, F., Souverijns, N., Van Achter, G., Vanden Broucke, S., Vanhulle, A., Verfaillie, D., and Zipf, L.: PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere–land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSMO5.0 and CLM4.5, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022. a
Pritchard, H. D., Fretwell, P. T., Fremand, A. C., Bodart, J. A., Kirkham, J. D., Aitken, A., Bamber, J., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Christianson, K., Conway, H., Corr, H. F. J., Cui, X., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Dorschel, B., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Eisermann, H., Ferraccioli, F., Field, E., Forsberg, R., Franke, S., Goel, V., Gogineni, S. P., Greenbaum, J., Hills, B., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Hoffman, A. O., Holschuh, N., Holt, J. W., Humbert, A., Jacobel, R. W., Jansen, D., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jong, L., Jordan, T. A., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Maton, J., Gillespie, M. K., Langley, K., Lee, J., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B., MacGregor, J. A., MacKie, E., Moholdt, G., Matsuoka, K., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nost, O. A., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Popov, S., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J. L., Ross, N., Ruppel, A., Schroeder, D. M., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tabacco, I., Tinto, K. J., Urbini, S., Vaughan, D. G., Wilson, D. S., Young, D. A., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap3 updated ice bed, surface and thickness gridded datasets for Antarctica, Scientific Data, 12, 414, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04672-y, 2025. a
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018a. a, b
Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x, 2018b. a
Richter, O., Timmermann, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., and De Rydt, J.: Coupling framework (1.0) for the Úa (2023b) ice sheet model and the FESOM-1.4 z-coordinate ocean model in an Antarctic domain, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2945–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2945-2025, 2025. a
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798, 2013. a, b
Roquet, F., Madec, G., Brodeau, L., and Nycander, J.: Defining a Simplified Yet “Realistic” Equation of State for Seawater, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 2564–2579, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0080.1, 2015. a
Sauerland, F., Huot, P.-V., Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Haubner, K., Klein, F., Massonnet, F., Mezzina, B., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Pattyn, F., Pelletier, C., Verfaillie, D., Zipf, L., and van Lipzig, N.: EC-Earth- and ERA5-driven ensemble hindcasts with the fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea ice–atmosphere–land circum-Antarctic model PARASO, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025. a
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., and Zwinger, T.: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004561, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561, 2024. a, b, c
Shean, D. E., Joughin, I. R., Dutrieux, P., Smith, B. E., and Berthier, E.: Ice shelf basal melt rates from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) record for Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 2633–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2633-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., Gregory, J. M., Lee, V., Mathiot, P., Payne, A. J. , Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022. a
Smith, R. S., Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: Coupling the U.K. Earth System Model to Dynamic Models of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520, 2021. a
Wiskandt, J. and Jourdain, N. C.: Brief communication: Representation of heat conduction into ice in marine ice shelf melt modelling, The Cryosphere, 19, 3253–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, 2025. a
Yung, C. K., Asay-Davis, X. S., Adcroft, A., Bull, C. Y. S., De Rydt, J., Dinniman, M. S., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Goldberg, D., Gwyther, D. E., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Jordan, J. R., Jourdain, N. C., Kusahara, K., Marques, G., Mathiot, P., Menemenlis, D., Morrison, A. K., Nakayama, Y., Sergienko, O., Smith, R. S., Stern, A., Timmermann, R., and Zhou, Q.: Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+), The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026. a
Zhao, C., Gladstone, R., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gwyther, D., and Hattermann, T.: Evaluation of an emergent feature of sub-shelf melt oscillations from an idealized coupled ice sheet–ocean model using FISOC (v1.1) – ROMSIceShelf (v1.0) – Elmer/Ice (v9.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022. a
Zhou, Q., Hattermann, T., Zhao, C., Gladstone, R., Lauber, J., Uotila, P., and Morris, A.: Channelized topography amplifies melt-sensitivity of cold Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Commun., 17, 3790, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71828-8, 2026. a
Zhou, S., Dutrieux, P., Giulivi, C. F., Jenkins, A., Silvano, A., Auckland, C., Abrahamsen, E. P., Meredith, M., Vaňková, I., Nicholls, K., Davis, P. E. D., Østerhus, S., Gordon, A. L., Zappa, C. J., Dotto, T. S., Scambos, T., Gunn, K. L., Rintoul, S. R., Aoki, S., Stevens, C., Liu, C., Yun, S., Kim, T.-W., Lee, W. S., Janout, M., Hattermann, T., Lauber, J., Darelius, E., Wåhlin, A., Middleton, L., Castagno, P., Budillon, G., Heywood, K. J., Graham, J., Dye, S., Hirano, D., and Miller, U. K.: The OCEAN ICE mooring compilation: a standardised, pan-Antarctic database of ocean hydrography and current time series, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025. a, b
Zinck, A.-S. P., Lhermitte, S., Wearing, M., and Wouters, B.: Exposure to Underestimated Channelized Melt in Antarctic Ice Shelves, Research Square [preprint], https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4806463/v1, 2024. a, b, c, d
Zinck, A.-S. P., Wouters, B., Jesse, F., and Lhermitte, S.: Ocean-induced weakening of George VI Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 19, 5509–5529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5509-2025, 2025. a, b
Zoet, L. K. and Iverson, N. R.: A slip law for glaciers on deformable beds, Science, 368, 76–78, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz1183, 2020. a
Short summary
The future contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise is strongly dependent on the melting of floating ice shelves by the underlying ocean. Here, we present version 2 of the two-dimensional ocean model LADDIE. We evaluate the model by comparing it to three-dimensional ocean models and satellite observations, showing good performance at low computational cost. With this open-source model, we hope to contribute to the evolution toward more realistic melting in ice sheet model simulations.
The future contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise is strongly dependent on the melting of...
