Articles | Volume 19, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8289-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8289-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
08 Sep 2026
Development and technical paper |
| 08 Sep 2026
| 08 Sep 2026
A general physiologically driven representation of leaf turnover in grasslands in the QUINCY land surface model (revision: 974a6b7f)
Discipline of Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Midori Yajima
Discipline of Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Yu Zhu
Department of Biology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Lumnesh Swaroop Kumar Joseph
Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Department of Environmental science, St Joseph's University, Lalbagh Road, Bengaluru, India
Jinyan Yang
CSIRO, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
Fabrice Lacroix
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Signals, Jena, Germany
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Yunpeng Luo
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Andreas Schaumberger
Agricultural Research and Education Centre Raumberg-Gumpenstein, Raumberg, Austria
Michael Bahn
Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Sönke Zaehle
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Signals, Jena, Germany
Silvia Caldararu
Discipline of Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
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Kristian Schufft, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, Belinda E. Medlyn, Min Zhao, Lin Yu, Catriona A. Macdonald, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3553, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Soil respiration and its underlying drivers are heavily influenced by nutrient availability. We used a computer model that simulates ecosystem processes to investigate how phosphorus (P) addition influences soil respiration and its underlying drivers. Our model suggests that, reduced root exudation, the labile C flux from roots into soils, causes reduced soil respiration under P addition. Our results bring a new perspective in the dependence of soil respiration on nutrient availability.
Kristian Schufft, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, Lin Yu, Mingkai Jiang, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 23, 4529–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4529-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4529-2026, 2026
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Root exudation describes a process in which plants allocate labile carbon (C) through roots into soils, thereby influencing microbial C and nutrient cycling. We implemented root exudation in a computer model that simulates ecosystem processes. Increased atmospheric CO2 increased root exudation, but the additional input was partially offset by enhanced microbial respiration. Our research brings new perspectives in modelling soil C and nutrient cycling in forests under increasing CO2.
Tea Thum, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Mika Aurela, Alan Barr, Marika Honkanen, Bruce Johnson, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Troy Magney, Mirco Migliavacca, Zoe Amie Pierrat, Tristan Quaife, Jochen Stutz, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 23, 3541–3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3541-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3541-2026, 2026
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Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an optical signal emitted by plants, connected to the biochemical status of the plants. Therefore it helps to unveil what happens inside plants and since it can be observed with remote sensing, it provides a global view of plant activity. We included SIF module in a terrestrial biosphere model and examined how to best describe movement of the SIF signal in the forest. Our work will help to model SIF in boreal coniferous forests.
Liang Chen, Matthias Peichl, Yunpeng Luo, Peng Zhao, Alisa Krasnova, and Frank Berninger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1940, 2026
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We conducted a 15-year study of a pine forest to check how nitrogen fertilization affacts forest photosynthsis under dry conditions. We compared two nearby sites by analyzing long-term measurements of carbon exchange. Our results showed that fertilization increased photosynthesis even during summer droughts. However, it also made the forest more sensitive to both dry air and dry soil conditions. Our study suggesuts that the benefits of fertilization may be offset by drought.
Tamara Emmerichs, Fabrice Lacroix, Victor Brovkin, Sönke Zaehle, Cheng Gong, Yu Zhu, Sofie Sjogersten, Carolina Voigt, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, and Eeva-Stiina Tuitila
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1514, 2026
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Shrubs use water and carbon differently and are expanding in warming tundra and grasslands, yet global models lack accuracy. We added two shrub types to a vegetation model including soil nutrients and carbon exchange. Half of the modeled shrubs showed good performance whereas their growth is 40 % higher as at grasses. Deciduous shrubs reduce nitrogen more than evergreens. Including shrubs improves Arctic carbon cycle predictions, revealing nitrogen limits cause underestimation in global models.
Tea Thum, Christine L. Goodale, Lin Yu, Julia Nabel, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5876, 2025
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Nitrogen and carbon cycle have manifold interactions and to be able predict carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation, ability to model nitrogen cycle properly is important. 15N tracer experiments can be helpful, as they track the fate where added nitrogen will end up in the ecosystem. We simulated one such experiment with a model containing 15N cycle and found that comparison with data helped to evaluate the model in different aspects.
Cheng Gong, Yan Wang, Hanqin Tian, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17009–17025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17009-2025, 2025
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Our results showed substantially varied fertilizer-induced soil NOx emissions in 2019 from 0.84 to 2.2 Tg N yr-1 globally. Such variations further lead to 0.1 to 3.3 ppbv summertime ozone enhancement in agricultural hotspot regions and 6.7 ppbv to 16.6 ppbv reductions in global methane concentrations.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Hanna Lee, Stefano Materia, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7117-2025, 2025
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Earth System Models are the principal tools for scientists to study past, present, and future climate changes. This work investigates the ability of a set of them to represent the observed changes in vegetation, which are vital to estimating the impact of future climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study highlights the main limitations in correctly representing vegetation variability. These tools still need further development to improve our understanding of future changes.
Dieu Anh Tran, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Christoph Gerbig, Michał Gałkowski, Santiago Botía, Kim Faassen, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16553–16588, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16553-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16553-2025, 2025
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Analysis of CH4 data (2010–2021) from ZOtino Tall Tower Observatory in Central Siberia shows an increase in the late summer diurnal amplitude, driven by nighttime emissions. These trends correlate with rising soil temperature and moisture during the late summer and snow depth of the preceding spring. Peaks in 2012 and 2019 emission link to wildfires activity. Findings suggest wetlands as key CH4 sources and underscore the need for ongoing high-resolution monitoring in this region.
Tuuli Miinalainen, Amanda Ojasalo, Holly Croft, Mika Aurela, Mikko Peltoniemi, Silvia Caldararu, Sönke Zaehle, and Tea Thum
Biogeosciences, 22, 6937–6962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6937-2025, 2025
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Estimating the future carbon budget requires an accurate understanding of the interlinkages between the land carbon and nitrogen cycles. We use a remote sensing leaf chlorophyll product to evaluate a terrestrial biosphere model, QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system). Our study showcases how the latest advancements in remote sensing-based vegetation monitoring can be harnessed for improving and evaluating process-based vegetation models.
Carlos A. Sierra, Ingrid Chanca, Meinrat O. Andreae, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Hella van Asperen, Lars Borchardt, Santiago Botía, Luiz Antonio Candido, Caio S. C. Correa, Cléo Quaresma Dias-Junior, Markus Eritt, Annica Fröhlich, Luciana V. Gatti, Marcus Guderle, Samuel Hammer, Martin Heimann, Viviana Horna, Armin Jordan, Steffen Knabe, Richard Kneißl, Jost Valentin Lavric, Ingeborg Levin, Kita Macario, Juliana Menger, Heiko Moossen, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Michael Rothe, Christian Rödenbeck, Yago Santos, Axel Steinhof, Bruno Takeshi, Susan Trumbore, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5871–5884, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, 2025
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We present here a unique dataset of atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases and isotopes that provide key information on land-atmosphere interactions for the Amazon forests of central Brazil. The data show a relatively large level of variability, but also important trends in greenhouse gases, and signals from fires as well as seasonal biological activity.
Rubaya Pervin, Scott Robeson, Mallory Barnes, Stephen Sitch, Anthony Walker, Ben Poulter, Fabienne Maignan, Qing Sun, Thomas Colligan, Sönke Zaehle, Kashif Mahmud, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Vladislav Bastrikov, Liam Bogucki, Bertrand Decharme, Christine Delire, Stefanie Falk, Akihiko Ito, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Michael O’Sullivan, Wenping Yuan, and Natasha MacBean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, 2025
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Drylands contribute more than a third of the global vegetation productivity. Yet, these regions are not well represented in global vegetation models. Here, we tested how well 15 global models capture annual changes in dryland vegetation productivity. Models that didn’t have vegetation change over time or fire have lower variability in vegetation productivity. Models need better representation of grass cover types and their coverage. Our work highlights where and how these models need to improve.
Laura Nadolski, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jacob Nelson, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Anke Hildebrandt, Victor Rolo, Markus Reichstein, and Sung-Ching Lee
Biogeosciences, 22, 2935–2958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2935-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2935-2025, 2025
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Semi-arid ecosystems are crucial for Earth's carbon balance and are sensitive to changes in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) levels. Their carbon dynamics are complex and not fully understood. We studied how long-term nutrient changes affect carbon exchange. In summer, the addition of N+P changed plant composition and productivity. In transitional seasons, carbon exchange was less weather-dependent with N. The addition of N and N+P increases carbon-exchange variability, driven by grass greenness.
Tea Thum, Tuuli Miinalainen, Outi Seppälä, Holly Croft, Cheryl Rogers, Ralf Staebler, Silvia Caldararu, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 1781–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, 2025
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Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems, and here the nitrogen cycle is also important. We used the terrestrial biosphere model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system) in a mixed deciduous forest in Canada. We investigated the usefulness of using the leaf area index and leaf chlorophyll content to improve the parameterization of the model. This work paves the way for using spaceborne observations in model parameterizations, also including information on the nitrogen cycle.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
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Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Thomas Dirnböck, Michael Bahn, Eugenio Diaz-Pines, Ika Djukic, Michael Englisch, Karl Gartner, Günther Gollobich, Johannes Ingrisch, Barbara Kitzler, Karl Knaebel, Johannes Kobler, Andreas Maier, Armin Malli, Ivo Offenthaler, Johannes Peterseil, Gisela Pröll, Sarah Venier, Christoph Wohner, Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Anita Zolles, and Stephan Glatzel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 685–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-685-2025, 2025
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Long-term observation sites have been established in six Austrian locations, covering major ecosystem types such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands. The purpose of these observations is to measure baselines for assessing the impacts of extreme climate events on the carbon cycle. The collected datasets include meteorological variables, soil temperature and moisture, carbon dioxide fluxes, and tree stem growth in forests at a resolution of 15–60 min between 2019 and 2021.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
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How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
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Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
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The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chenwei Xiao, Sönke Zaehle, Hui Yang, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christiane Schmullius, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.
Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Tarek El-Madany, Victor Rolo, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Silvia Caldararu, Kendalynn A. Morris, Marion Schrumpf, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, 2023
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We studied a Mediterranean ecosystem to understand carbon uptake efficiency and its controls. These ecosystems face potential nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances due to pollution. Analysing six years of carbon data, we assessed controls at different timeframes. This is crucial for predicting such vulnerable regions. Our findings revealed N limitation on C uptake, not N:P imbalance, and strong influence of water availability. whether drought or wetness promoted net C uptake depended on timescale.
Silvia Caldararu, Victor Rolo, Benjamin D. Stocker, Teresa E. Gimeno, and Richard Nair
Biogeosciences, 20, 3637–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem manipulative experiments are large experiments in real ecosystems. They include processes such as species interactions and weather that would be omitted in more controlled settings. They offer a high level of realism but are underused in combination with vegetation models used to predict the response of ecosystems to global change. We propose a workflow using models and ecosystem experiments together, taking advantage of the benefits of both tools for Earth system understanding.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
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Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Aparnna Ravi, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vishnu Thilakan, and Chandra Shekhar Jha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, 2023
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We derive high-resolution terrestrial CO2 fluxes over India from 2012 to 2020. This is achieved by utilizing satellite-based vegetation indices and meteorological data in a data-driven biospheric model. The model simulations are improved by incorporating soil variables and SIF retrievals from satellite instruments and relate them to ecosystem productivity across different biomes. The derived flux products better explain the flux variability compared to other existing model estimates.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Lin Yu, Silvia Caldararu, Bernhard Ahrens, Thomas Wutzler, Marion Schrumpf, Julian Helfenstein, Chiara Pistocchi, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 20, 57–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, 2023
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In this study, we addressed a key weakness in current ecosystem models regarding the phosphorus exchange in the soil and developed a new scheme to describe this process. We showed that the new scheme improved the model performance for plant productivity, soil organic carbon, and soil phosphorus content at five beech forest sites in Germany. We claim that this new model could be used as a better tool to study ecosystems under future climate change, particularly phosphorus-limited systems.
Thomas Wutzler, Lin Yu, Marion Schrumpf, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8377–8393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, 2022
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Soil microbes process soil organic matter and affect carbon storage and plant nutrition at the ecosystem scale. We hypothesized that decadal dynamics is constrained by the ratios of elements in litter inputs, microbes, and matter and that microbial community optimizes growth. This allowed the SESAM model to descibe decadal-term carbon sequestration in soils and other biogeochemical processes explicitly accounting for microbial processes but without its problematic fine-scale parameterization.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Xin Yu, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Michael Bahn, Anne Klosterhalfen, Alexander Knohl, Franziska Koebsch, Mirco Migliavacca, Martina Mund, Jacob A. Nelson, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sophia Walther, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, 2022
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Identifying drought legacy effects is challenging because they are superimposed on variability driven by climate conditions in the recovery period. We develop a residual-based approach to quantify legacies on gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance data. The GPP reduction due to legacy effects is comparable to the concurrent effects at two sites in Germany, which reveals the importance of legacy effects. Our novel methodology can be used to quantify drought legacies elsewhere.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
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In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Cited articles
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Ahrens, B., Hansson, K., Solly, E. F., and Schrumpf, M.: Reconcilable differences: a joint calibration of fine‐root turnover times with radiocarbon and minirhizotrons, New Phytol., 204, 932–942, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12979, 2014. a, b
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Bai, Y. and Cotrufo, M. F.: Grassland soil carbon sequestration: Current understanding, challenges, and solutions, Science, 377, 603–608, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo2380, 2022. a, b
Balzarolo, M., Boussetta, S., Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Maignan, F., Calvet, J.-C., Lafont, S., Barbu, A., Poulter, B., Chevallier, F., Szczypta, C., and Papale, D.: Evaluating the potential of large-scale simulations to predict carbon fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems over a European Eddy Covariance network, Biogeosciences, 11, 2661–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen–Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Sci. Data, 5, 180214, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214, 2018. a
Bengtsson, J., Bullock, J. M., Egoh, B., Everson, C., Everson, T., O'Connor, T., O'Farrell, P. J., Smith, H. G., and Lindborg, R.: Grasslands – more important for ecosystem services than you might think, Ecosphere, 10, e02582, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2582, 2019. a
Bórnez, K., Richardson, A. D., Verger, A., Descals, A., and Peñuelas, J.: Evaluation of VEGETATION and PROBA-V Phenology Using PhenoCam and Eddy Covariance Data, Remote Sens., 12, 3077, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12183077, 2020. a
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Short summary
This study presents a new global leaf turnover model for grasslands in the QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system) land surface model. Land surface models often struggle to simulate grassland carbon dynamics and phenology accurately. By allowing environmental conditions to directly control leaf senescence we improve its timing as well as the accuracy of whole-season carbon dynamics across a wide range of climates and grassland ecosystems.
This study presents a new global leaf turnover model for grasslands in the QUINCY (QUantifying...
