Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?, J. Climate, 28, 6938–6959,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015.
a,
b
Carter, T.: StratAdapt: Advancing Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Mali,
https://pressroom.icrisat.org/stratadapt-advancing-climate-resilient-agriculture-in-mali (last access: 8 June 2026), 2024. a
Coppola, E., Raffaele, F., Giorgi, F., Giuliani, G., Xuejie, G., Ciarlo, J. M., Sines, T. R., Torres-Alavez, J. A., Das, S., Di Sante, F., Pichelli, E., Glazer, R., Müller, S. K., Abba Omar, S., Ashfaq, M., Bukovsky, M., Im, E.-S., Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Remedio, A., Remke, T., Kriegsmann, A., Bülow, K., Weber, T., Buntemeyer, L., Sieck, K., and Rechid, D.: Climate Hazard Indices Projections Based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1293–1383,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z, 2021.
a,
b,
c
De Ridder, K., Lauwaet, D., and Maiheu, B.: UrbClim – A Fast Urban Boundary Layer Climate Model, Urban Climate, 12, 21–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2015.01.001, 2015.
a
Devis, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Demuzere, M.: A New Statistical Approach to Downscale Wind Speed Distributions at a Site in Northern Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2272–2283,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50245, 2013.
a,
b,
c
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e
Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.: Anthropogenic Contribution to Global Occurrence of Heavy-Precipitation and High-Temperature Extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 560–564,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2617, 2015.
a
Fosser, G., Gaetani, M., Kendon, E. J., Adinolfi, M., Ban, N., Belušić, D., Caillaud, C., Careto, J. A. M., Coppola, E., Demory, M.-E., De Vries, H., Dobler, A., Feldmann, H., Goergen, K., Lenderink, G., Pichelli, E., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., and Tölle, M. H.: Convection-Permitting Climate Models Offer More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 51,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00600-w, 2024.
a
Gutjahr, O., Putrasahan, D., Lohmann, K., Jungclaus, J. H., von Storch, J.-S., Brüggemann, N., Haak, H., and Stössel, A.: Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019.
a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., De Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
a,
b
Im, E.-S., Pal, J. S., and Eltahir, E. A. B.: Deadly Heat Waves Projected in the Densely Populated Agricultural Regions of South Asia, Sci. Adv., 3, e1603322,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1603322, 2017.
a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tech. rep., IPCC, Cambridge University Press,
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, ISBN 9781009157896, 2021.
a,
b,
c
IPCC: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1513–1766, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 978-1-009-15788-9,
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2023.
a
Karger, D. N., Lange, S., Hari, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Conrad, O., Zimmermann, N. E., and Frieler, K.: CHELSA-W5E5: daily 1 km meteorological forcing data for climate impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023.
a,
b,
c
Katragkou, E., Sobolowski, S. P., Teichmann, C., Solmon, F., Pavlidis, V., Rechid, D., Hoffmann, P., Fernandez, J., Nikulin, G., and Jacob, D.: Delivering an Improved Framework for the New Generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, E962–E974,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0131.1, 2024.
a,
b
Kendon, E. J., Prein, A. F., Senior, C. A., and Stirling, A.: Challenges and Outlook for Convection-Permitting Climate Modelling, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 379, 20190547,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0547, 2021.
a
Lee, W.-L., Wang, Y.-C., Shiu, C.-J., Tsai, I., Tu, C.-Y., Lan, Y.-Y., Chen, J.-P., Pan, H.-L., and Hsu, H.-H.: Taiwan Earth System Model Version 1: description and evaluation of mean state, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3887–3904,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3887-2020, 2020.
a
Maraun, D.: Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the Inflation Issue, J. Climate, 26, 2137–2143,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00821.1, 2013.
a,
b,
c
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., Von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model Version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO
2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019.
a
Ministère de la Sécurité et de la Protection Civile: Rapport annuel 2023, Ministère de la Sécurité et de la Protection Civile, Bamako, Mali,
https://malimeteo-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/boucarydara_malimeteo_ml/IQBzbVtspeZDRbp_QMfU1VXlATIAwc6pFms7G729GFxOBAo (last access: 17 June 2026), 2023. a
Ministère de la Sécurité et de la Protection Civile: Rapport annuel 2024, Ministère de la Sécurité et de la Protection Civile Bamako, Mali,
https://malimeteo-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/boucarydara_malimeteo_ml/IQC5tL_RT265SLr0a8iPkemgAdLidZ-cnajjhMTXL5ZY06c (last access: 17 June 2026), 2024. a
Panthou, G., Vischel, T., and Lebel, T.: Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the Central Sahel, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3998–4006,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984, 2014.
a
Perkins, S. E., Pitman, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., and McAneney, J.: Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions, J. Climate, 20, 4356–4376,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4253.1, 2007.
a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., Van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.: A Review on Regional Convection-permitting Climate Modeling: Demonstrations, Prospects, and Challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015.
a
Raymond, C., Matthews, T., and Horton, R. M.: The Emergence of Heat and Humidity Too Severe for Human Tolerance, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaw1838,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838, 2020.
a
Saeed, S., Brisson, E., Demuzere, M., Tabari, H., Willems, P., and Van Lipzig, N. P. M.: Multidecadal Convection Permitting Climate Simulations over Belgium: Sensitivity of Future Precipitation Extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 18, 29–36,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.720, 2017.
a
Sanogo, S., Fink, A. H., Omotosho, J. A., Ba, A., Redl, R., and Ermert, V.: Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of the Recent Rainfall Recovery in West Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4589–4605,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4309, 2015.
a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate Extremes Indices in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: Part 1. Model Evaluation in the Present Climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013.
a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019.
a
Switanek, M., Maraun, D., and Bevacqua, E.: Stochastic Downscaling of Gridded Precipitation to Spatially Coherent Subgrid Precipitation Fields Using a Transformed Gaussian Model, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 6126–6147,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7581, 2022.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e,
f,
g,
h,
i
Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., Chikira, M., Watanabe, S., Mori, M., Hirota, N., Kawatani, Y., Mochizuki, T., Yoshimura, K., Takata, K., O'ishi, R., Yamazaki, D., Suzuki, T., Kurogi, M., Kataoka, T., Watanabe, M., and Kimoto, M.: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019.
a
Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R., Caluwaerts, S., Giot, O., Hamdi, R., Vannitsem, S., Duchêne, F., Willems, P., Tabari, H., Van Uytven, E., Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Van Lipzig, N., Wouters, H., Vanden Broucke, S., Van Ypersele, J.-P., Marbaix, P., Villanueva-Birriel, C., Fettweis, X., Wyard, C., Scholzen, C., Doutreloup, S., De Ridder, K., Gobin, A., Lauwaet, D., Stavrakou, T., Bauwens, M., Müller, J.-F., Luyten, P., Ponsar, S., Van Den Eynde, D., and Pottiaux, E.: The CORDEX.Be Initiative as a Foundation for Climate Services in Belgium, Climate Services, 11, 49–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.001, 2018.
a
Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F., van Meijgaard, E., Prein, A., Déqué, M., Kotlarski, S., Maule, C. F., Nikulin, G., Noël, T., and Teichmann, C.: Climate Change Impacts on the Power Generation Potential of a European Mid-Century Wind Farms Scenario, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 034013,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034013, 2016.
a
Vanden Broucke, S., Wouters, H., Demuzere, M., and Van Lipzig, N. P. M.: The Influence of Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Modeling on Future Projections of Extreme Precipitation: Dependency on Topography and Timescale, Clim. Dynam., 52, 5303–5324,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4454-2, 2019.
a
Van De Velde, J., Demuzere, M., De Baets, B., and Verhoest, N.: Future Multivariate Weather Generation by Combining Bartlett-Lewis and Vine Copula Models, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 68, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2144322, 2023.
a
Volodin, E. M., Mortikov, E. V., Kostrykin, S. V., Galin, V. Ya., Lykossov, V. N., Gritsun, A. S., Diansky, N. A., Gusev, A. V., and Iakovlev, N. G.: Simulation of the Present-Day Climate with the Climate Model INMCM5, Clim. Dynam., 49, 3715–3734,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3539-7, 2017.
a
Volodin, E. M., Mortikov, E. V., Kostrykin, S. V., Galin, V. Y., Lykossov, V. N., Gritsun, A. S., Diansky, N. A., Gusev, A. V., Iakovlev, N. G., Shestakova, A. A., and Emelina, S. V.: Simulation of the Modern Climate Using the INM-CM48 Climate Model, Russ. J. Numer. Anal. M., 33, 367–374,
https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2018-0032, 2018.
a
Volosciuk, C., Maraun, D., Vrac, M., and Widmann, M.: A combined statistical bias correction and stochastic downscaling method for precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693–1719,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, 2017.
a,
b,
c,
d
WMO (World Meteorological Organization): WMO Guidelines on the Calculation of Climate Normals, WMO-No. 1203, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2017, ISBN 978-92-63-311203-7,
https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/55797 (last access: 15 June 2026), 2017.
a,
b
Wouters, H.: EXSoDOS: Downscaling of Changing Weather Extremes for Climate Projections: Code and Input Data for Demonstration, Zenodo [code, data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15387101, 2025.
a
Wouters, H., Demuzere, M., Blahak, U., Fortuniak, K., Maiheu, B., Camps, J., Tielemans, D., and van Lipzig, N. P. M.: The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3027–3054,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, 2016.
a
Wouters, H., De Ridder, K., Poelmans, L., Willems, P., Brouwers, J., Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Tabari, H., Vanden Broucke, S., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Demuzere, M.: Heat Stress Increase under Climate Change Twice as Large in Cities as in Rural Areas: A Study for a Densely Populated Midlatitude Maritime Region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8997–9007,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074889, 2017.
a
Wouters, H., Keune, J., Petrova, I. Y., Van Heerwaarden, C. C., Teuling, A. J., Pal, J. S., Vilà-Guerau De Arellano, J., and Miralles, D. G.: Soil Drought Can Mitigate Deadly Heat Stress Thanks to a Reduction of Air Humidity, Sci. Adv.s, 8, eabe6653,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe6653, 2022.
a,
b,
c,
d
Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yabu, S., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Obata, A., Adachi, Y., and Ishii, M.: The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 97, 931–965,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019.
a
