Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
Model description paper
 | 
02 Jul 2026
Model description paper |  | 02 Jul 2026

EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling

Hendrik Wouters, Jente Broeckx, Francisco Pereira, Boucary Dara, Afoussatou Diarra, Robin Houdmeyers, and Dirk Lauwaet

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Short summary
Predicting shifts in local extreme weather under global warming is key for climate adaptation, but climate projections lack detail. A new tool, EXSoDOS (DOwnScaling of weather EXtremes Shifts), combines ground measurements, reanalysis data, and climate models to improve estimates of extreme weather, aiding better risk planning. Tested in five regions, it accurately captures temperature, rainfall, and wind extremes including their past changes, outperforming raw model data. Results show worsening heat (stress) and precipitation by 2100.
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