EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling

Wouters, Hendrik; Broeckx, Jente; Pereira, Francisco; Dara, Boucary; Diarra, Afoussatou; Houdmeyers, Robin; Lauwaet, Dirk

doi:10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026

Articles | Volume 19, issue 13

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 13

Model description paper

|

02 Jul 2026

Model description paper |

| 02 Jul 2026

EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling

Hendrik Wouters, Jente Broeckx, Francisco Pereira, Boucary Dara, Afoussatou Diarra, Robin Houdmeyers, and Dirk Lauwaet

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026-supplement

Data sets

Downscaling of Changing Weather Extremes for Climate Projections: Code and Input Data for Demonstration Hendrik Wouters https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15387101

Short summary

Predicting shifts in local extreme weather under global warming is key for climate adaptation, but climate projections lack detail. A new tool, EXSoDOS (DOwnScaling of weather EXtremes Shifts), combines ground measurements, reanalysis data, and climate models to improve estimates of extreme weather, aiding better risk planning. Tested in five regions, it accurately captures temperature, rainfall, and wind extremes including their past changes, outperforming raw model data. Results show worsening heat (stress) and precipitation by 2100.