Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-41-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-41-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
05 Jan 2026
Methods for assessment of models |
| 05 Jan 2026
| 05 Jan 2026
Integration of the Global Water and Lake Sectors within the ISIMIP framework through scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes
Ana I. Ayala
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Limnology Unit, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
José L. Hinostroza
Faculty of Civil Engineering, National University of Engineering, Lima, Perú
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Centre for Advanced Studies, National Spanish Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain
Rafael Marcé
Centre for Advanced Studies, National Spanish Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain
Simon N. Gosling
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Donald C. Pierson
Limnology Unit, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Sebastian Sobek
Limnology Unit, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Related authors
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Isabel Wargowsky, Judith Vogt, McKenzie A. Kuhn, Simran Madaan, Richard O'Keefe, Tiffany Windholz, Kyle A. Arndt, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kelcy Kent, Mathias Göckede, David Olefeldt, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Edward A. G. Schuur, David Bastviken, Kristoffer Aalstad, Kelly Aho, Joonatan Ala-Könni, Haley Alcock, Inge Althuizen, Christopher D. Arp, Jun Asanuma, Katrin Attermeyer, Mika Aurela, Sivakiruthika Balathandayuthabani, Alan Barr, Maialen Barret, Ochirbat Batkhishig, Christina Biasi, Mats P. Björkman, Andrew Black, Elena Blanc-Betes, Pascal Bodmer, Julia Boike, Abdullah Bolek, Frédéric Bouchard, Ingeborg Bussmann, Lea Cabrol, Eleonora Canfora, Sean Carey, Karel Castro-Morales, Namyi Chae, Andres Christen, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Housen Chu, Graham Clark, Francois Clayer, Patrick Crill, Christopher Cunada, Scott J. Davidson, Joshua F. Dean, Sigrid Dengel, Matteo Detto, Catherine Dieleman, Florent Domine, Egor Dyukarev, Colin Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie Euskirchen, Grant Falvo, Thomas Friborg, Michelle Garneau, Mariasilvia Giamberini, Mikhail V. Glagolev, Miquel A. Gonzalez-Meler, Gustaf Granath, Jón Guðmundsson, Konsta Happonen, Yoshinobu Harazono, Lorna Harris, Josh Hashemi, Nicholas Hasson, Janna Heerah, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Warren Helgason, Michal Heliasz, Greg Henry, Geert Hensgens, Tetsuya Hiyama, Macall Hock, David Holl, Beth Holmes, Jutta Holst, Thomas Holst, Gabriel Hould-Gosselin, Elyn Humphreys, Jacqueline Hung, Jussi Huotari, Hiroki Ikawa, Danil V. Ilyasov, Mamoru Ishikawa, Go Iwahana, Hiroki Iwata, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Joachim Jansen, Järvi Järveoja, Vincent E. J. Jassey, Rasmus Jensen, Katharina Jentzsch, Robert G. Jespersen, Carl-Fredrik Johannesson, Chersity P. Jones, Anders Jonsson, Ji Young Jung, Sari Juutinen, Evan Kane, Jan Karlsson, Sergey Karsanaev, Kuno Kasak, Julia Kelly, Kasha Kempton, Marcus Klaus, George W. Kling, Natacha Kljun, Jacqueline Knutson, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pasi Kolari, Mika Korkiakoski, Aino Korrensalo, Pirkko Kortelainen, Egle Koster, Kajar Koster, Ayumi Kotani, Praveena Krishnan, Juliya Kurbatova, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Ethan D. Kyzivat, Jessica Lagroix, Theodore Langhorst, Elena Lapshina, Tuula Larmola, Klaus S. Larsen, Isabelle Laurion, Justin Ledman, Hanna Lee, A. Joshua Leffler, Lance Lesack, Anders Lindroth, David Lipson, Annalea Lohila, Efrén López-Blanco, Vincent L. St. Louis, Erik Lundin, Misha Luoto, Takashi Machimura, Marta Magnani, Avni Malhotra, Marja Maljanen, Ivan Mammarella, Elisa Männistö, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Phil Marsh, Pertti J. Martkainen, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Alex Mavrovic, Trofim Maximov, Christina Minions, Marco Montemayor, Tomoaki Morishita, Patrick Murphy, Daniel F. Nadeau, Erin Nicholls, Mats B. Nilsson, Anastasia Niyazova, Jenni Nordén, Koffi Dodji Noumonvi, Hannu Nykanen, Walter Oechel, Anne Ojala, Tomohiro Okadera, Sujan Pal, Alexey V. Panov, Tim Papakyriakou, Dario Papale, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Gilberto Pastorello, Mike Peacock, Matthias Peichl, Roman Petrov, Kyra St. Pierre, Norbert Pirk, Jessica Plein, Vilmantas Preskienis, Anatoly Prokushkin, Jukka Pumpanen, Hilary A. Rains, Niklas Rakos, Aleski Räsänen, Helena Rautakoski, Riika Rinnan, Janne Rinne, Adrian Rocha, Nigel Roulet, Alexandre Roy, Anna Rutgersson, Aleksandr F. Sabrekov, Torsten Sachs, Erik Sahlée, Alejandro Salazar, Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi, Christopher Schulze, Roger Seco, Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui, Svetlana Serikova, Abbey Serrone, Hanna M. Silvennoinen, Sofie Sjogersten, June Skeeter, Jo Snöälv, Sebastian Sobek, Oliver Sonnentag, Emily H. Stanley, Maria Strack, Lena Strom, Patrick Sullivan, Ryan Sullivan, Anna Sytiuk, Torbern Tagesson, Pierre Taillardat, Julie Talbot, Suzanne E. Tank, Mario Tenuta, Irina Terenteva, Frederic Thalasso, Antoine Thiboult, Halldor Thorgeirsson, Fenix Garcia Tigreros, Margaret Torn, Amy Townsend-Small, Claire Treat, Alain Tremblay, Carlo Trotta, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Merritt Turetsky, Masahito Ueyama, Muhammad Umair, Aki Vähä, Lona van Delden, Maarten van Hardenbroek, Andrej Varlagin, Ruth K. Varner, Elena Veretennikova, Timo Vesala, Tarmo Virtanen, Carolina Voigt, Jorien E. Vonk, Robert Wagner, Katey Walter Anthony, Qinxue Wang, Masataka Watanabe, Hailey Webb, Jeffrey M. Welker, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Jeffrey R. White, Christian Wille, Scott N. Williamson, Scott Zolkos, Donatella Zona, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset includes monthly measurements of carbon dioxide and methane exchange between land, water, and the atmosphere from over 1,000 sites in Arctic and boreal regions. It combines measurements from a variety of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, tundra, lakes, and rivers, gathered by over 260 researchers from 1984–2024. This dataset can be used to improve and reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets in order to strengthen our understanding of climate feedbacks in a warming world.
Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Ricardo Paíz, Valerie McCarthy, Eleanor Jennings, Elvira de Eyto, Angeles M. Gallegos, Mary Dillanee, Juan C. Garcia, José J. Rodríguez, and Rafael Marcé
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4049, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding what shapes lake water quality is vital in a changing world. We studied dissolved organic matter, a key part of water quality in lakes and the carbon cycle, to analyse its environmental drivers and make predictions, by using machine learning. Tested in lakes in Ireland and Spain, it showed predictive potential, even when relying only on global climate and soil data. This helps explain how land and climate conditions influence freshwater resources. It can be reproduced worldwide.
Victoria Frutos Aragón, Sandra Brucet, Rafael Marcé, Tuba Bucak, Thomas Alexander Davidson, Louisa-Marie von Plüskow, Pieter Lemmens, and Carolina Trochine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3725, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Pond sediments emit substantial CO2 during dry phases, often overlooked despite climate change increasing dry periods. We measured emissions in 30 ponds across Mediterranean and Temperate regions, finding higher emissions in summer and in ponds with longer hydroperiods, especially in Mediterranean climates. Emissions peaked at moderate sediment water content and warm temperatures, highlighting the need to include dry-phase emissions in carbon flux assessments.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Kedar Otta, Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon N. Gosling, and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs play important roles in hydrology and water resources management globally and are incorporated into many Global Hydrological Models. Their simulations are, however, poorly validated due to the lack of available long-term in-situ observation data globally. Here we investigated the applicability of the latest satellite-based reservoir storage estimations in the contiguous US. We found that those products are useful for validating reservoir storage simulations when they are normalized.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Cited articles
Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 317–337, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.317.45290, 2003.
Ayala, A. I.: aiayalaz/Scaling-of-streamflow-inputs-to-lakes-ISIMIP3a: version 1.1.0 of Scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes ISIMIP3a (v1.1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17589293, 2025a.
Ayala, A. I.: Input data used in script scaling streamflow inputs to lakes in ISIMIP3a (Global Water-Lake Sector coupling), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17588875, 2025b.
Ayala, A. I.: Outputs from the script for scaling streamflow inputs to lakes in ISIMIP3a (Global Water–Lake Sector coupling), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17588905, 2025c.
Ayala, A. I., Moras, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020.
Ayala, A. I., Mesman, J. P., Jones, I. D., De Eyto, E., Jennings, E., Goyette, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Climate Change Impacts on Surface Heat Fluxes in a Deep Monomictic Lake, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 128, e2022JD038355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038355, 2023a.
Ayala, A. I., De Eyto, E., Jennings, E., Goyette, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Global warming will change the thermal structure of Lough Feeagh, a sentinel lake in the Irish landscape, by the end of the twenty-first century, Biol. Environ. Proc. R. Ir. Acad., 123B, 145–163, https://doi.org/10.1353/bae.2023.a916008, 2023b.
Costa, D., Sutter, C., Shepherd, A., Jarvie, H., Wilson, H., Elliott, J., Liu, J., and Macrae, M.: Impact of climate change on catchment nutrient dynamics: insights from around the world, Environ. Rev., 31, 4–25, https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2021-0109, 2023.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Döll, P. and Lehner, B.: Validation of a new global 30-min drainage direction map, J. Hydrol., 258, 214–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(01)00565-0, 2002.
Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Lehner, B.: A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation, J. Hydrol., 270, 105–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00283-4, 2003.
Donnelly, C., Andersson, J. C. M., and Arheimer, B.: Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61, 255–273, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1027710, 2016.
Donnelly, C., Greuell, W., Andersson, J., Gerten, D., Pisacane, G., Roudier, P., and Ludwig, F.: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level, Clim. Change, 143, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1971-7, 2017.
Fenocchi, A., Rogora, M., Sibilla, S., and Dresti, C.: Relevance of inflows on the thermodynamic structure and on the modeling of a deep subalpine lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland), Limnologica, 63, 42–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2017.01.006, 2017.
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., Stock, C., Liu, X., Heneghan, R., Tittensor, D., Maury, O., Büchner, M., Vogt, T., Wang, T., Sun, F., Sauer, I. J., Koch, J., Vanderkelen, I., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Rabin, S., Klar, J., Vega del Valle, I. D., Lasslop, G., Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Gallego-Sala, A., Smith, N., Chang, J., Hantson, S., Burton, C., Gädeke, A., Li, F., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Hattermann, F., Wang, J., Yao, F., Hickler, T., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Thiery, W., Mercado-Bettín, D., Ladwig, R., Ayala-Zamora, A. I., Forrest, M., and Bechtold, M.: Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024.
Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado-Bettin, D., Woolway, R. I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Kraemer, B. M., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Bogomolov, V. Y., Bouffard, D., Côté, M., Couture, R.-M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Gal, G., Guo, M., Janssen, A. B. G., Kirillin, G., Ladwig, R., Magee, M., Moore, T., Perroud, M., Piccolroaz, S., Raaman Vinnaa, L., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Woodward, B., Yao, H., Adrian, R., Allan, M., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Atkins, K., Boegman, L., Carey, C., Christianson, K., de Eyto, E., DeGasperi, C., Grechushnikova, M., Hejzlar, J., Joehnk, K., Jones, I. D., Laas, A., Mackay, E. B., Mammarella, I., Markensten, H., McBride, C., Özkundakci, D., Potes, M., Rinke, K., Robertson, D., Rusak, J. A., Salgado, R., van der Linden, L., Verburg, P., Wain, D., Ward, N. K., Wollrab, S., and Zdorovennova, G.: A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022.
Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L., Tan, Z., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V. M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Janssen, A. B. G., Woolway, R. I., Choulga, M., Balsamo, G., Kirillin, G., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Del Valle, I. V., Golub, M., Pierson, D., Marcé, R., Seneviratne, S. I., and Thiery, W.: Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 14, 849–854, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x, 2021.
Gronchi, E., Jöhnk, K. D., Straile, D., Diehl, S., and Peeters, F.: Local and continental-scale controls of the onset of spring phytoplankton blooms: Conclusions from a proxy-based model, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 1976–1990, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15521, 2021.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Huisman, J., Codd, G. A., Paerl, H. W., Ibelings, B. W., Verspagen, J. M. H., and Visser, P. M.: Cyanobacterial blooms, Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 16, 471–483, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-018-0040-1, 2018.
Jane, S. F., Hansen, G. J. A., Kraemer, B. M., Leavitt, P. R., Mincer, J. L., North, R. L., Pilla, R. M., Stetler, J. T., Williamson, C. E., Woolway, R. I., Arvola, L., Chandra, S., DeGasperi, C. L., Diemer, L., Dunalska, J., Erina, O., Flaim, G., Grossart, H.-P., Hambright, K. D., Hein, C., Hejzlar, J., Janus, L. L., Jenny, J.-P., Jones, J. R., Knoll, L. B., Leoni, B., Mackay, E., Matsuzaki, S.-I. S., McBride, C., Müller-Navarra, D. C., Paterson, A. M., Pierson, D., Rogora, M., Rusak, J. A., Sadro, S., Saulnier-Talbot, E., Schmid, M., Sommaruga, R., Thiery, W., Verburg, P., Weathers, K. C., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Yokota, K., and Rose, K. C.: Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes, Nature, 594, 66–70, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03550-y, 2021.
Jansen, J., Woolway, R. I., Kraemer, B. M., Albergel, C., Bastviken, D., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Marcé, R., Sharma, S., Sobek, S., Tranvik, L. J., Perroud, M., Golub, M., Moore, T. N., Råman Vinnå, L., La Fuente, S., Grant, L., Pierson, D. C., Thiery, W., and Jennings, E.: Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 5427–5440, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16298, 2022.
Jansen, J., Simpson, G. L., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Härkönen, L. H., Paterson, A. M., Del Giorgio, P. A., and Prairie, Y. T.: Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 832–838, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3, 2024.
Jiménez-Navarro, I. C., Jimeno-Sáez, P., López-Ballesteros, A., Pérez-Sánchez, J., and Senent-Aparicio, J.: Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios, Forests, 12, 1803, https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121803, 2021.
Jones, E. R., Van Beek, R., Cárdenas Belleza, G., Burek, P., Dugdale, S. J., Flörke, M., Fridman, D., Gosling, S. N., Kumar, R., Mercado-Bettin, D., Müller Schmied, H., Tan, Z., Thiery, W., Tilahun, A. B., Wanders, N., and Van Vliet, M. T. H.: A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change, Environ. Res. Water, 1, 025002, https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/addffa, 2025.
Kim, H.: Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 Atmospheric Boundary Conditions (Experiment 1), Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.20783/DIAS.501, 2017.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424–425, 264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Knoben, W. J. M., Freer, J. E., and Woods, R. A.: Technical note: Inherent benchmark or not? Comparing Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4323–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, 2019.
Kraemer, B. M., Anneville, O., Chandra, S., Dix, M., Kuusisto, E., Livingstone, D. M., Rimmer, A., Schladow, S. G., Silow, E., Sitoki, L. M., Tamatamah, R., Vadeboncoeur, Y., and McIntyre, P. B.: Morphometry and average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4981–4988, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064097, 2015.
Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Eisner, S., Huang, S., Pechlivanidis, I., Strauch, M., Gelfan, A., Kumar, R., Aich, V., Arheimer, B., Chamorro, A., Van Griensven, A., Kundu, D., Lobanova, A., Mishra, V., Plötner, S., Reinhardt, J., Seidou, O., Wang, X., Wortmann, M., Zeng, X., and Hattermann, F. F.: Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide – a synthesis, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 105002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359, 2017.
La Fuente, S., Jennings, E., Gal, G., Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., Ladwig, R., Moore, T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., Love Råman Vinnå, C., and Iestyn Woolway, R.: Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake, J. Hydrol., 615, 128729, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128729, 2022.
La Fuente, S., Jennings, E., Lenters, J. D., Verburg, P., Tan, Z., Perroud, M., Janssen, A. B. G., and Woolway, R. I.: Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change, J. Hydrol., 631, 130647, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130647, 2024a.
La Fuente, S., Jennings, E., Lenters, J. D., Verburg, P., Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., Couture, R.-M., Côté, M., Vinnå, C. L. R., and Woolway, R. I.: Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change, Clim. Change, 177, 173, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2, 2024b.
Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Henrot, A., Hickler, T., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Müller, C., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Müller Schmied, H., Seneviratne, S. I., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Willner, S., Yang, H., Yoshikawa, M., Yue, C., and Frieler, K.: Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales, Earths Future, 8, e2020EF001616, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616, 2020.
Lange, S., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., Buontempo, C., and Cagnazzo, C.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0), ISIMIP Repository, https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217, 2021.
Li, X., Peng, S., Xi, Y., Woolway, R. I., and Liu, G.: Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Commun., 13, 5156, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32830-y, 2022.
Lindström, G., Pers, C., Rosberg, J., Strömqvist, J., and Arheimer, B.: Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales, Hydrol. Res., 41, 295–319, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.007, 2010.
Liu, J., You, Y., Li, J., Sitch, S., Gu, X., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Lombardozzi, D., Luo, M., Feng, X., Arneth, A., Jain, A. K., Friedlingstein, P., Tian, H., Poulter, B., and Kong, D.: Response of global land evapotranspiration to climate change, elevated CO2, and land use change, Agric. For. Meteorol., 311, 108663, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108663, 2021.
Maberly, S. C., O'Donnell, R. A., Woolway, R. I., Cutler, M. E. J., Gong, M., Jones, I. D., Merchant, C. J., Miller, C. A., Politi, E., Scott, E. M., Thackeray, S. J., and Tyler, A. N.: Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change, Nat. Commun., 11, 1232, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z, 2020.
Magee, M. R. and Wu, C. H.: Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6253–6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6253-2017, 2017.
Marotta, H., Pinho, L., Gudasz, C., Bastviken, D., Tranvik, L. J., and Enrich-Prast, A.: Greenhouse gas production in low-latitude lake sediments responds strongly to warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 467–470, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2222, 2014.
Mesman, J. P., Jiménez-Navarro, I. C., Ayala, A. I., Senent-Aparicio, J., Trolle, D., and Pierson, D. C.: Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024.
Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., and Schmitt, O.: Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach, Nat. Commun., 7, 13603, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603, 2016.
Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Clim., 25, 693–712, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181, 2005.
Moras, S., Ayala, A. I., and Pierson, D. C.: Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019.
Müller Schmied, H., Cáceres, D., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Herbert, C., Niemann, C., Peiris, T. A., Popat, E., Portmann, F. T., Reinecke, R., Schumacher, M., Shadkam, S., Telteu, C.-E., Trautmann, T., and Döll, P.: The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2d: model description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1037–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, 2021.
Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Ackermann, S., Cáceres, D., Flörke, M., Gerdener, H., Kynast, E., Peiris, T. A., Schiebener, L., Schumacher, M., and Döll, P.: The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8817–8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, 2024.
Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., Ahmed, A. K., Andersen, L. S., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Chen, H., Gudmundsson, L., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Kumar, R., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., Menke, I., Mishra, V., Pokhrel, Y., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Satoh, Y., Shah, H. L., Smilovic, M., Stacke, T., Sutanudjaja, E., Thiery, W., Tsilimigkras, A., Wada, Y., Wanders, N., and Yokohata, T.: Graphical representation of global water models, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
North, R. P., North, R. L., Livingstone, D. M., Köster, O., and Kipfer, R.: Long-term changes in hypoxia and soluble reactive phosphorus in the hypolimnion of a large temperate lake: consequences of a climate regime shift, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12371, 2014.
O'Reilly, C. M., Sharma, S., Gray, D. K., Hampton, S. E., Read, J. S., Rowley, R. J., Schneider, P., Lenters, J. D., McIntyre, P. B., Kraemer, B. M., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Straile, D., Dong, B., Adrian, R., Allan, M. G., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Austin, J., Bailey, J. L., Baron, J. S., Brookes, J. D., De Eyto, E., Dokulil, M. T., Hamilton, D. P., Havens, K., Hetherington, A. L., Higgins, S. N., Hook, S., Izmest'eva, L. R., Joehnk, K. D., Kangur, K., Kasprzak, P., Kumagai, M., Kuusisto, E., Leshkevich, G., Livingstone, D. M., MacIntyre, S., May, L., Melack, J. M., Mueller-Navarra, D. C., Naumenko, M., Noges, P., Noges, T., North, R. P., Plisnier, P., Rigosi, A., Rimmer, A., Rogora, M., Rudstam, L. G., Rusak, J. A., Salmaso, N., Samal, N. R., Schindler, D. E., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, M., Schmidt, S. R., Silow, E., Soylu, M. E., Teubner, K., Verburg, P., Voutilainen, A., Watkinson, A., Williamson, C. E., and Zhang, G.: Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066235, 2015.
Paerl, H. W. and Huisman, J.: Blooms Like It Hot, Science, 320, 57–58, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155398, 2008.
Råman Vinnå, L., Wüest, A., Zappa, M., Fink, G., and Bouffard, D.: Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018.
Rosenzweig, C., Arnell, N. W., Ebi, K. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Raes, F., Rapley, C., Smith, M. S., Cramer, W., Frieler, K., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Van Vuuren, D., and Warszawski, L.: Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: the role of ISIMIP, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 010301, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/010301, 2017.
Saber, A., James, D. E., and Hannoun, I. A.: Effects of lake water level fluctuation due to drought and extreme winter precipitation on mixing and water quality of an alpine lake, Case Study: Lake Arrowhead, California, Sci. Total Environ., 714, 136762, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136762, 2020.
Sharma, S., Blagrave, K., Magnuson, J. J., O'Reilly, C. M., Oliver, S., Batt, R. D., Magee, M. R., Straile, D., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Winslow, L., and Woolway, R. I.: Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 227–231, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5, 2019.
Sharma, S., Richardson, D. C., Woolway, R. I., Imrit, M. A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S. S., Perry, W., Robertson, D. M., Rudstam, L. G., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., and Yao, H.: Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosciences, 126, e2021JG006348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348, 2021.
Telteu, C.-E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., Boulange, J. E. S., Andersen, L. S., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Satoh, Y., Rakovec, O., Stacke, T., Chang, J., Wanders, N., Shah, H. L., Trautmann, T., Mao, G., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Samaniego, L., Wada, Y., Mishra, V., Liu, J., Döll, P., Zhao, F., Gädeke, A., Rabin, S. S., and Herz, F.: Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021.
Vachon, D., Langenegger, T., Donis, D., and McGinnis, D. F.: Influence of water column stratification and mixing patterns on the fate of methane produced in deep sediments of a small eutrophic lake, Limnol. Oceanogr., 64, 2114–2128, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11172, 2019.
Vanderkelen, I., Van Lipzig, N. P. M., Lawrence, D. M., Droppers, B., Golub, M., Gosling, S. N., Janssen, A. B. G., Marcé, R., Schmied, H. M., Perroud, M., Pierson, D., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schewe, J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Woolway, R. I., and Thiery, W.: Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087867, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867, 2020.
Wang, W., Lee, X., Xiao, W., Liu, S., Schultz, N., Wang, Y., Zhang, M., and Zhao, L.: Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate, Nat. Geosci., 11, 410–414, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0114-8, 2018.
Woolway, R. I. and Merchant, C. J.: Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes in response to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 12, 271–276, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x, 2019.
Woolway, R. I., Jennings, E., Shatwell, T., Golub, M., Pierson, D. C., and Maberly, S. C.: Lake heatwaves under climate change, Nature, 589, 402–407, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1, 2021a.
Woolway, R. I., Sharma, S., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Debolskiy, A., Golub, M., Mercado-Bettín, D., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V., Tan, Z., Grant, L., Ladwig, R., Mesman, J., Moore, T. N., Shatwell, T., Vanderkelen, I., Austin, J. A., DeGasperi, C. L., Dokulil, M., La Fuente, S., Mackay, E. B., Schladow, S. G., Watanabe, S., Marcé, R., Pierson, D. C., Thiery, W., and Jennings, E.: Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 2318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4, 2021b.
Woolway, R. I., Albergel, C., Frölicher, T. L., and Perroud, M.: Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human-Induced Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097031, 2022a.
Woolway, R. I., Denfeld, B., Tan, Z., Jansen, J., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., and La Fuente, S.: Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 7, 302–311, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10231, 2022b.
Short summary
Climate change affect lakes by including not just the lakes themselves but also the land areas that drain into them. These surrounding areas influence how much water and nutrients flow into lakes which in turn impact water quality. Here, water fluxes from land, derived from a global hydrological model where water fluxes are modelled at the grid scale, were used to estimate streamflow inputs to lakes from their catchments. Using data from 70 Swedish lakes, we showed that our method works well.
Climate change affect lakes by including not just the lakes themselves but also the land areas...
