Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
16 Apr 2026
Model description paper |
| 16 Apr 2026
| 16 Apr 2026
RTSEvo v1.0: a retrogressive thaw slump evolution model
Jiwei Xu
Yangtze River Delta Urban Wetland Ecosystem National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, School of Environment and Geographic Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
Yangtze River Delta Urban Wetland Ecosystem National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, School of Environment and Geographic Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
Yangtze River Delta Urban Wetland Ecosystem National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, School of Environment and Geographic Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China
Fujun Niu
Yangtze River Delta Urban Wetland Ecosystem National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, School of Environment and Geographic Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
Yaonan Zhang
National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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Short summary
Permafrost is warming, causing more ground collapses known as retrogressive thaw slumps that damage ecosystems and infrastructure. We created a new computer model to predict how these slumps grow and spread over time. By combining satellite data, statistics, and rules that mimic natural erosion, the model can reproduce changes with high accuracy. This helps scientists and planners better forecast future permafrost hazards.
Permafrost is warming, causing more ground collapses known as retrogressive thaw slumps that...
