Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Model description paper
 | 
16 Apr 2026
Model description paper |  | 16 Apr 2026

RTSEvo v1.0: a retrogressive thaw slump evolution model

Jiwei Xu, Shuping Zhao, Zhuotong Nan, Fujun Niu, and Yaonan Zhang

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Latest update: 13 May 2026
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Short summary
Permafrost is warming, causing more ground collapses known as retrogressive thaw slumps that damage ecosystems and infrastructure. We created a new computer model to predict how these slumps grow and spread over time. By combining satellite data, statistics, and rules that mimic natural erosion, the model can reproduce changes with high accuracy. This helps scientists and planners better forecast future permafrost hazards.
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