Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1121-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1121-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
03 Feb 2026
Methods for assessment of models |  | 03 Feb 2026

Simulating the recent drought-induced mortality of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) in German forests

Gina Marano, Ulrike Hiltner, Nikolai Knapp, and Harald Bugmann

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Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
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Short summary
Drought is reshaping Europe's forests. Using an uncalibrated process-based model across 149 German sites, we identified key drivers of tree mortality in European beech and Norway spruce forests. Our model captured both the timing and extent of mortality. A new bark beetle module improved predictions for spruce. High soil water capacity and heterogeneous soils reduced drought impacts. These findings offer new insights to anticipate forest responses in a warming, drying climate.
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