Articles | Volume 18, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
10 Oct 2025
Model description paper |
| 10 Oct 2025
| 10 Oct 2025
Aging and stress explain the earlier start of leaf senescence in trees in warmer years: translating the latest findings on senescence regulation into the DP3 model (v1.1)
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Christof Bigler
Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Isabelle Chuine
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
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We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
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PHOREAU is a forest dynamic model that links plant traits with water use, growth, and climate responses to explore how species diversity affects productivity and resilience. Validated across European forests, PHOREAU simulates how tree communities function under drought and warming. Our findings support the use of trait-based modeling to guide forest adaptation strategies under future climate scenarios.
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We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
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Short summary
The DP3 model of leaf coloring, formulated according to the leaf development process, considerably contrasts previous models and allows to set up new hypotheses, e.g., regarding earlier onset and longer duration of senescence predicted for warmer conditions. Comparing the accuracy of the DP3 model to that of previous models and the Null model (average observed date of leaf coloring) suggests that leaf coloring data are noisy, which is why observation protocols and methods should be revised.
The DP3 model of leaf coloring, formulated according to the leaf development process,...
