Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 19
Articles | Volume 18, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6701-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6701-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 19
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
01 Oct 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 01 Oct 2025

An information-theoretic approach to obtain ensemble averages from Earth system models

Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

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We propose an approach to obtain weights for calculating averages of variables from Earth system models (ESM) based on concepts from information theory. It quantifies a relative distance between model output and reality, even though it is impossible to know the absolute distance from model predictions to reality. The relative ranking among models is based on concepts of model selection and multi-model averages previously developed for simple statistical models, but adapted here for ESMs.
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