Articles | Volume 18, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6701-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6701-2025
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
01 Oct 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 01 Oct 2025

An information-theoretic approach to obtain ensemble averages from Earth system models

Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Uwe Ehret, 19 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Carlos Sierra on behalf of the Authors (10 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (27 Aug 2025) by Olivier Marti
AR by Carlos Sierra on behalf of the Authors (27 Aug 2025)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
We propose an approach to obtain weights for calculating averages of variables from Earth system models (ESM) based on concepts from information theory. It quantifies a relative distance between model output and reality, even though it is impossible to know the absolute distance from model predictions to reality. The relative ranking among models is based on concepts of model selection and multi-model averages previously developed for simple statistical models, but adapted here for ESMs.
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