Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5575-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5575-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
Model description paper
 | 
04 Sep 2025
Model description paper |  | 04 Sep 2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins, Boris Bonev, Noah Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Joshua Elms, Peter Harrington, Karthik Kashinath, Thorsten Kurth, Joshua North, Travis O'Brien, Michael Pritchard, David Pruitt, Mark Risser, Shashank Subramanian, and Jared Willard

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Short summary
Simulating extreme weather events in a warming world is a challenging task for current weather and climate models. These models' computational cost poses a challenge in studying low-probability extreme weather. We use machine learning to construct a new probabilistic system. We give an in-depth explanation of how we constructed this system. We present a thorough pipeline to validate our method. Our method requires fewer computational resources than existing weather and climate models.
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Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design,...