Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design, implementation, and interpretation in climate science (ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)(ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)
Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design, implementation, and interpretation in climate science (ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)(ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)
Editor(s): GMD topic editors | Coordinators: Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Irina Tezaur, Eviatar Bach, and David Stainforth Special issue jointly organized between Earth System Dynamics, Geoscientific Model Development, and Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
The purpose of this special issue is to review and report on recent advances in the design, implementation, and interpretation of ensembles in climate science. This includes theoretical, mathematical, and computational aspects, therefore bringing together contributions from mathematicians, computational scientists, model users and developers, and climate scientists alike.

Climate science, in particular climate prediction and projection, are heavily dependent on the use of Earth system models (ESMs), which are nonlinear, complex, and chaotic representations of the Earth’s spheres. As such, ESMs are susceptible to various sources of uncertainty. These include uncertainty in the initial state, parameter values, model formulation, structure, and external forcing. Ensembles have become a key tool to quantify these uncertainties and improve predictions. However, challenging questions remain regarding how to design and interpret such ensembles within the constraints of limited computational power and the lack of a rigorous framework for their design. Therefore, this special issue will be a valuable resource to climate scientists working on both theoretical and practical aspects of prediction ahead of Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) and future assessments.

This issue arises from the minisymposium Theoretical and Computational Aspects of Ensemble Design and Interpretation in Climate Science and Modelling hosted during the SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in Geosciences in Bergen, Norway (19–22 June 2023). It features works by participants as well as external contributions.

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22 Oct 2024
Implementation and validation of a supermodelling framework into CESM version 2.1.5
William Eric Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, and Jesse Nusbaumer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2682,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2682, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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10 Oct 2024
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: Studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, Francesco Ragone, François Massonnet, and Giuseppe Zappa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3082,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3082, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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02 Oct 2024
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev, Noah Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Peter Harrington, Karthik Kashinath, Thorsten Kurth, Joshua North, Travis A. O'Brien, Michael Pritchard, David Pruitt, Mark Risser, Shashank Subramanian, and Jared Willard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.01581,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.01581, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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02 Oct 2024
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev, Noah Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Joshua Elms, Peter Harrington, Karthik Kashinath, Thorsten Kurth, Joshua North, Travis O'Brien, Michael Pritchard, David Pruitt, Mark Risser, Shashank Subramanian, and Jared Willard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.03100,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.03100, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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23 Sep 2024
Using feature importance as exploratory data analysis tool on earth system models
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-133,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-133, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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06 Aug 2024
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 987–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024, 2024
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19 Jul 2024
An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass-change
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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