Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3857-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3857-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
30 Jun 2025
Methods for assessment of models |
| 30 Jun 2025
| 30 Jun 2025
Estimation of above- and below-ground ecosystem parameters for DVM-DOS-TEM v0.7.0 using MADS v1.7.3
Elchin E. Jafarov
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Hélène Genet
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Velimir V. Vesselinov
EnviTrace LLC, Santa Fe, NM, USA
Valeria Briones
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Aiza Kabeer
Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Andrew L. Mullen
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Benjamin Maglio
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Tobey Carman
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Ruth Rutter
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Joy Clein
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Chu-Chun Chang
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Dogukan Teber
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Trevor Smith
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Joshua M. Rady
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Christina Schädel
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Jennifer D. Watts
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Brendan M. Rogers
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Susan M. Natali
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
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Valeria Briones, Hélène Genet, Elchin E. Jafarov, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Annett Bartsch, Benjamin C. Maglio, Joshua Rady, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-226, 2025
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw, affecting ecosystems and climate. Since land cover, especially vegetation, shapes how permafrost responds, accurate maps are crucial. Using machine learning, we combined existing global and regional datasets to create a hybrid detailed 1-km map of Arctic-Boreal land cover, improving the representation of forests, shrubs, and wetlands across the circumpolar.
Jason A. Clark, Elchin E. Jafarov, Ken D. Tape, Benjamin M. Jones, and Victor Stepanenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7421–7448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, 2022
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Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to warm the surrounding frozen ground. We simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season and that more heat storage by lakes would enhance thawing of frozen ground.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Daniil Svyatsky, Brent Newman, Dylan Harp, David Moulton, and Cathy Wilson
The Cryosphere, 16, 851–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, 2022
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Recent research indicates the importance of lateral transport of dissolved carbon in the polygonal tundra, suggesting that the freeze-up period could further promote lateral carbon transport. We conducted subsurface tracer simulations on high-, flat-, and low-centered polygons to test the importance of the freeze–thaw cycle and freeze-up time for tracer mobility. Our findings illustrate the impact of hydraulic and thermal gradients on tracer mobility, as well as of the freeze-up time.
Dylan R. Harp, Vitaly Zlotnik, Charles J. Abolt, Bob Busey, Sofia T. Avendaño, Brent D. Newman, Adam L. Atchley, Elchin Jafarov, Cathy J. Wilson, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere, 15, 4005–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, 2021
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Polygon-shaped landforms present in relatively flat Arctic tundra result in complex landscape-scale water drainage. The drainage pathways and the time to transition from inundated conditions to drained have important implications for heat and carbon transport. Using fundamental hydrologic principles, we investigate the drainage pathways and timing of individual polygons, providing insights into the effects of polygon geometry and preferential flow direction on drainage pathways and timing.
Hong Lin, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Xiao Cheng, J. Patrick Donnelly, Jennifer D. Watts, and Annett Bartsch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-503, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Ice cover on small water bodies is highly sensitive to climate change and influences ecosystems, water, and the carbon cycle. We produced a satellite-based ice fraction dataset for small water bodies on the Arctic Coastal Plain from 2017 to 2023. The dataset captures freeze-up and break-up timing and reveals spatial variability. It will support studies of climate–ice interactions and improve models of water and carbon processes.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Isabel Wargowsky, Judith Vogt, McKenzie A. Kuhn, Simran Madaan, Richard O'Keefe, Tiffany Windholz, Kyle A. Arndt, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kelcy Kent, Mathias Göckede, David Olefeldt, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Edward A. G. Schuur, David Bastviken, Kristoffer Aalstad, Kelly Aho, Joonatan Ala-Könni, Haley Alcock, Inge Althuizen, Christopher D. Arp, Jun Asanuma, Katrin Attermeyer, Mika Aurela, Sivakiruthika Balathandayuthabani, Alan Barr, Maialen Barret, Ochirbat Batkhishig, Christina Biasi, Mats P. Björkman, Andrew Black, Elena Blanc-Betes, Pascal Bodmer, Julia Boike, Abdullah Bolek, Frédéric Bouchard, Ingeborg Bussmann, Lea Cabrol, Eleonora Canfora, Sean Carey, Karel Castro-Morales, Namyi Chae, Andres Christen, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Housen Chu, Graham Clark, Francois Clayer, Patrick Crill, Christopher Cunada, Scott J. Davidson, Joshua F. Dean, Sigrid Dengel, Matteo Detto, Catherine Dieleman, Florent Domine, Egor Dyukarev, Colin Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie Euskirchen, Grant Falvo, Thomas Friborg, Michelle Garneau, Mariasilvia Giamberini, Mikhail V. Glagolev, Miquel A. Gonzalez-Meler, Gustaf Granath, Jón Guðmundsson, Konsta Happonen, Yoshinobu Harazono, Lorna Harris, Josh Hashemi, Nicholas Hasson, Janna Heerah, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Warren Helgason, Michal Heliasz, Greg Henry, Geert Hensgens, Tetsuya Hiyama, Macall Hock, David Holl, Beth Holmes, Jutta Holst, Thomas Holst, Gabriel Hould-Gosselin, Elyn Humphreys, Jacqueline Hung, Jussi Huotari, Hiroki Ikawa, Danil V. Ilyasov, Mamoru Ishikawa, Go Iwahana, Hiroki Iwata, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Joachim Jansen, Järvi Järveoja, Vincent E. J. Jassey, Rasmus Jensen, Katharina Jentzsch, Robert G. Jespersen, Carl-Fredrik Johannesson, Chersity P. Jones, Anders Jonsson, Ji Young Jung, Sari Juutinen, Evan Kane, Jan Karlsson, Sergey Karsanaev, Kuno Kasak, Julia Kelly, Kasha Kempton, Marcus Klaus, George W. Kling, Natacha Kljun, Jacqueline Knutson, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pasi Kolari, Mika Korkiakoski, Aino Korrensalo, Pirkko Kortelainen, Egle Koster, Kajar Koster, Ayumi Kotani, Praveena Krishnan, Juliya Kurbatova, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Ethan D. Kyzivat, Jessica Lagroix, Theodore Langhorst, Elena Lapshina, Tuula Larmola, Klaus S. Larsen, Isabelle Laurion, Justin Ledman, Hanna Lee, A. Joshua Leffler, Lance Lesack, Anders Lindroth, David Lipson, Annalea Lohila, Efrén López-Blanco, Vincent L. St. Louis, Erik Lundin, Misha Luoto, Takashi Machimura, Marta Magnani, Avni Malhotra, Marja Maljanen, Ivan Mammarella, Elisa Männistö, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Phil Marsh, Pertti J. Martkainen, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Alex Mavrovic, Trofim Maximov, Christina Minions, Marco Montemayor, Tomoaki Morishita, Patrick Murphy, Daniel F. Nadeau, Erin Nicholls, Mats B. Nilsson, Anastasia Niyazova, Jenni Nordén, Koffi Dodji Noumonvi, Hannu Nykanen, Walter Oechel, Anne Ojala, Tomohiro Okadera, Sujan Pal, Alexey V. Panov, Tim Papakyriakou, Dario Papale, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Gilberto Pastorello, Mike Peacock, Matthias Peichl, Roman Petrov, Kyra St. Pierre, Norbert Pirk, Jessica Plein, Vilmantas Preskienis, Anatoly Prokushkin, Jukka Pumpanen, Hilary A. Rains, Niklas Rakos, Aleski Räsänen, Helena Rautakoski, Riika Rinnan, Janne Rinne, Adrian Rocha, Nigel Roulet, Alexandre Roy, Anna Rutgersson, Aleksandr F. Sabrekov, Torsten Sachs, Erik Sahlée, Alejandro Salazar, Henrique Oliveira Sawakuchi, Christopher Schulze, Roger Seco, Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui, Svetlana Serikova, Abbey Serrone, Hanna M. Silvennoinen, Sofie Sjogersten, June Skeeter, Jo Snöälv, Sebastian Sobek, Oliver Sonnentag, Emily H. Stanley, Maria Strack, Lena Strom, Patrick Sullivan, Ryan Sullivan, Anna Sytiuk, Torbern Tagesson, Pierre Taillardat, Julie Talbot, Suzanne E. Tank, Mario Tenuta, Irina Terenteva, Frederic Thalasso, Antoine Thiboult, Halldor Thorgeirsson, Fenix Garcia Tigreros, Margaret Torn, Amy Townsend-Small, Claire Treat, Alain Tremblay, Carlo Trotta, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Merritt Turetsky, Masahito Ueyama, Muhammad Umair, Aki Vähä, Lona van Delden, Maarten van Hardenbroek, Andrej Varlagin, Ruth K. Varner, Elena Veretennikova, Timo Vesala, Tarmo Virtanen, Carolina Voigt, Jorien E. Vonk, Robert Wagner, Katey Walter Anthony, Qinxue Wang, Masataka Watanabe, Hailey Webb, Jeffrey M. Welker, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Jeffrey R. White, Christian Wille, Scott N. Williamson, Scott Zolkos, Donatella Zona, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-585, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This dataset includes monthly measurements of carbon dioxide and methane exchange between land, water, and the atmosphere from over 1,000 sites in Arctic and boreal regions. It combines measurements from a variety of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, tundra, lakes, and rivers, gathered by over 260 researchers from 1984–2024. This dataset can be used to improve and reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets in order to strengthen our understanding of climate feedbacks in a warming world.
Anna C. Talucci, Michael M. Loranty, Jean E. Holloway, Brendan M. Rogers, Heather D. Alexander, Natalie Baillargeon, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Logan T. Berner, Amy Breen, Leya Brodt, Brian Buma, Jacqueline Dean, Clement J. F. Delcourt, Lucas R. Diaz, Catherine M. Dieleman, Thomas A. Douglas, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin V. Gaglioti, Rebecca E. Hewitt, Teresa Hollingsworth, M. Torre Jorgenson, Mark J. Lara, Rachel A. Loehman, Michelle C. Mack, Kristen L. Manies, Christina Minions, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, David Olefeldt, Alison K. Paulson, Adrian V. Rocha, Lisa B. Saperstein, Tatiana A. Shestakova, Seeta Sistla, Oleg Sizov, Andrey Soromotin, Merritt R. Turetsky, Sander Veraverbeke, and Michelle A. Walvoord
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2887–2909, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2887-2025, 2025
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Wildfires have the potential to accelerate permafrost thaw and the associated feedbacks to climate change. We assembled a dataset of permafrost thaw depth measurements from burned and unburned sites contributed by researchers from across the northern high-latitude region. We estimated maximum thaw depth for each measurement, which addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on maximum thaw depth when measurement timing varies.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Amanda Armstrong, Eric J. Ward, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton D. Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2507–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2507-2025, 2025
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We present daily methane (CH4) fluxes of northern wetlands at 10 km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine learning framework. We estimated an average annual CH4 emission of 22.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 (15.7–51.6 Tg CH4 yr−1). Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variation coming from Western Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Valeria Briones, Hélène Genet, Elchin E. Jafarov, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Annett Bartsch, Benjamin C. Maglio, Joshua Rady, and Susan M. Natali
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-226, 2025
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
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Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw, affecting ecosystems and climate. Since land cover, especially vegetation, shapes how permafrost responds, accurate maps are crucial. Using machine learning, we combined existing global and regional datasets to create a hybrid detailed 1-km map of Arctic-Boreal land cover, improving the representation of forests, shrubs, and wetlands across the circumpolar.
Adam M. Young, Thomas Milliman, Koen Hufkens, Keith Ballou, Christopher Coffey, Kai Begay, Michael Fell, Mostafa Javadian, Alison K. Post, Christina Schädel, Zakary Vladich, Oscar Zimmerman, Dawn M. Browning, Christopher R. Florian, Minkyu Moon, Michael D. SanClements, Bijan Seyednasrollah, Mark A. Friedl, and Andrew D. Richardson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-120, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Here, we describe the PhenoCam V3.0 public data release. The PhenoCam Network characterizes vegetation phenology in ecosystems across the US and around the world using repeat digital photography. This V3.0 release includes new additions to the data records (e.g., camera NDVI and simplified data sets) and provides >4800 site years of phenological time series and transition dates, a 170% increase relative to the previous data release (V2.0). Over 450 of the time series are 5 y or longer in length.
Lucas R. Diaz, Clement J. F. Delcourt, Moritz Langer, Michael M. Loranty, Brendan M. Rogers, Rebecca C. Scholten, Tatiana A. Shestakova, Anna C. Talucci, Jorien E. Vonk, Sonam Wangchuk, and Sander Veraverbeke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1459–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1459-2024, 2024
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Our study in eastern Siberia investigated how fires affect permafrost thaw depth in larch forests. We found that fire induces deeper thaw, yet this process was mediated by topography and vegetation. By combining field and satellite data, we estimated summer thaw depth across an entire fire scar. This research provides insights into post-fire permafrost dynamics and the use of satellite data for mapping fire-induced permafrost thaw.
Xiaoran Zhu, Dong Chen, Maruko Kogure, Elizabeth Hoy, Logan T. Berner, Amy L. Breen, Abhishek Chatterjee, Scott J. Davidson, Gerald V. Frost, Teresa N. Hollingsworth, Go Iwahana, Randi R. Jandt, Anja N. Kade, Tatiana V. Loboda, Matt J. Macander, Michelle Mack, Charles E. Miller, Eric A. Miller, Susan M. Natali, Martha K. Raynolds, Adrian V. Rocha, Shiro Tsuyuzaki, Craig E. Tweedie, Donald A. Walker, Mathew Williams, Xin Xu, Yingtong Zhang, Nancy French, and Scott Goetz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3687–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3687-2024, 2024
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The Arctic tundra is experiencing widespread physical and biological changes, largely in response to warming, yet scientific understanding of tundra ecology and change remains limited due to relatively limited accessibility and studies compared to other terrestrial biomes. To support synthesis research and inform future studies, we created the Synthesized Alaskan Tundra Field Dataset (SATFiD), which brings together field datasets and includes vegetation, active-layer, and fire properties.
Surendra Shrestha, Christopher A. Williams, Brendan M. Rogers, John Rogan, and Dominik Kulakowski
Biogeosciences, 21, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2207-2024, 2024
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Here, we generated chronosequences of leaf area index (LAI) and surface albedo as a function of time since fire to demonstrate the differences in the characteristic trajectories of post-fire biophysical changes among seven forest types and 21 level III ecoregions of the western United States (US) using satellite data from different sources. We also demonstrated how climate played the dominant role in the recovery of LAI and albedo 10 and 20 years after wildfire events in the western US.
Sarah M. Ludwig, Luke Schiferl, Jacqueline Hung, Susan M. Natali, and Roisin Commane
Biogeosciences, 21, 1301–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, 2024
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Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when using eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when calculating carbon budgets. In this study we report eddy covariance carbon fluxes from heterogeneous tundra. We used the footprints of each flux observation to unmix the fluxes coming from components of the landscape. We identified and quantified hot spots of carbon emissions in the landscape. Accurately scaling with landscape heterogeneity yielded half as much regional carbon uptake.
Thomas D. Hessilt, Brendan M. Rogers, Rebecca C. Scholten, Stefano Potter, Thomas A. J. Janssen, and Sander Veraverbeke
Biogeosciences, 21, 109–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-109-2024, 2024
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In boreal North America, snow and frozen ground prevail in winter, while fires occur in summer. Over the last 20 years, the northwestern parts have experienced earlier snow disappearance and more ignitions. This is opposite to the southeastern parts. However, earlier ignitions following earlier snow disappearance timing led to larger fires across the region. Snow disappearance timing may be a good proxy for ignition timing and may also influence important atmospheric conditions related to fires.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
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Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Michael Moubarak, Seeta Sistla, Stefano Potter, Susan M. Natali, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1537–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, 2023
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Tundra wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity with climate change. We show using a combination of field measurements and computational modeling that tundra wildfires result in a positive feedback to climate change by emitting significant amounts of long-lived greenhouse gasses. With these effects, attention to tundra fires is necessary for mitigating climate change.
Peter Stimmler, Mathias Goeckede, Bo Elberling, Susan Natali, Peter Kuhry, Nia Perron, Fabrice Lacroix, Gustaf Hugelius, Oliver Sonnentag, Jens Strauss, Christina Minions, Michael Sommer, and Jörg Schaller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1059-2023, 2023
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Arctic soils store large amounts of carbon and nutrients. The availability of nutrients, such as silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, phosphorus, and amorphous silica, is crucial to understand future carbon fluxes in the Arctic. Here, we provide, for the first time, a unique dataset of the availability of the abovementioned nutrients for the different soil layers, including the currently frozen permafrost layer. We relate these data to several geographical and geological parameters.
Luke D. Schiferl, Jennifer D. Watts, Erik J. L. Larson, Kyle A. Arndt, Sébastien C. Biraud, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Jordan P. Goodrich, John M. Henderson, Aram Kalhori, Kathryn McKain, Marikate E. Mountain, J. William Munger, Walter C. Oechel, Colm Sweeney, Yonghong Yi, Donatella Zona, and Róisín Commane
Biogeosciences, 19, 5953–5972, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5953-2022, 2022
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As the Arctic rapidly warms, vast stores of thawing permafrost could release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. We combined observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from aircraft and a tower with observed CO2 fluxes from tundra ecosystems and found that the Alaskan North Slope in not a consistent source nor sink of CO2. Our study shows the importance of using both site-level and atmospheric measurements to constrain regional net CO2 fluxes and improve biogenic processes in models.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
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We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Jason A. Clark, Elchin E. Jafarov, Ken D. Tape, Benjamin M. Jones, and Victor Stepanenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7421–7448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7421-2022, 2022
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Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to warm the surrounding frozen ground. We simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season and that more heat storage by lakes would enhance thawing of frozen ground.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Daniil Svyatsky, Brent Newman, Dylan Harp, David Moulton, and Cathy Wilson
The Cryosphere, 16, 851–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, 2022
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Recent research indicates the importance of lateral transport of dissolved carbon in the polygonal tundra, suggesting that the freeze-up period could further promote lateral carbon transport. We conducted subsurface tracer simulations on high-, flat-, and low-centered polygons to test the importance of the freeze–thaw cycle and freeze-up time for tracer mobility. Our findings illustrate the impact of hydraulic and thermal gradients on tracer mobility, as well as of the freeze-up time.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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Short summary
The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
David Olefeldt, Mikael Hovemyr, McKenzie A. Kuhn, David Bastviken, Theodore J. Bohn, John Connolly, Patrick Crill, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Hélène Genet, Guido Grosse, Lorna I. Harris, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Gustaf Hugelius, Ryan Hutchins, Sari Juutinen, Mark J. Lara, Avni Malhotra, Kristen Manies, A. David McGuire, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Aleksi Räsänen, Christina Schädel, Oliver Sonnentag, Maria Strack, Suzanne E. Tank, Claire Treat, Ruth K. Varner, Tarmo Virtanen, Rebecca K. Warren, and Jennifer D. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5127–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands, lakes, and rivers are important sources of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. To understand current and future methane emissions from northern regions, we need maps that show the extent and distribution of specific types of wetlands, lakes, and rivers. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) provides maps of five wetland types, seven lake types, and three river types for northern regions and will improve our ability to predict future methane emissions.
Dylan R. Harp, Vitaly Zlotnik, Charles J. Abolt, Bob Busey, Sofia T. Avendaño, Brent D. Newman, Adam L. Atchley, Elchin Jafarov, Cathy J. Wilson, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere, 15, 4005–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021, 2021
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Short summary
Polygon-shaped landforms present in relatively flat Arctic tundra result in complex landscape-scale water drainage. The drainage pathways and the time to transition from inundated conditions to drained have important implications for heat and carbon transport. Using fundamental hydrologic principles, we investigate the drainage pathways and timing of individual polygons, providing insights into the effects of polygon geometry and preferential flow direction on drainage pathways and timing.
Leah Birch, Christopher R. Schwalm, Sue Natali, Danica Lombardozzi, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Jennifer Watts, Xin Lin, Donatella Zona, Walter Oechel, Torsten Sachs, Thomas Andrew Black, and Brendan M. Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3361–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, 2021
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Short summary
The high-latitude landscape or Arctic–boreal zone has been warming rapidly, impacting the carbon balance both regionally and globally. Given the possible global effects of climate change, it is important to have accurate climate model simulations. We assess the simulation of the Arctic–boreal carbon cycle in the Community Land Model (CLM 5.0). We find biases in both the timing and magnitude photosynthesis. We then use observational data to improve the simulation of the carbon cycle.
Cited articles
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This study improves how we tune ecosystem models to reflect carbon and nitrogen storage in Arctic soils. By comparing model outputs with data from a black spruce forest in Alaska, we developed a clearer, more efficient method of matching observations. This is a key step towards understanding how Arctic ecosystems may respond to warming and release carbon, helping make future climate predictions more reliable.
This study improves how we tune ecosystem models to reflect carbon and nitrogen storage in...
