Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
09 Apr 2025
Model evaluation paper |
| 09 Apr 2025
| 09 Apr 2025
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
Jianyu Lin
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Lifang Sheng
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
Weihang Zhang
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
Shangfei Hai
CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
Yawen Kong
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida B. M. Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre A. G. Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Carbon Budget 2025 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2025). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Wanju Li, Lifang Sheng, Xueyan Bi, Zehao Huang, Yali Luo, Shiqi Xiao, Chao Liu, Yang Yang, Jiandong Wang, Yuanjian Yang, and Simone Lolli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2955, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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This study investigated the precursor factors of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall (WSHR) events in South China, which existed challenges in nowcasting and hazard warning. Four dynamical and thermodynamical indices were explored and tracked as precursor signals of WSHR, showing anomalous values in precursor signals are detected 1–4 hours preceding WSHR onset with regional heterogeneity. This research provides fundamental insights to enhance nowcasting and hazard warning for WSHR in South China.
Xiadong An, Wen Chen, Tianjiao Ma, and Lifang Sheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13343–13357, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13343-2025, 2025
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Air pollution in the North China Plain is tends to be influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). During El Niño and easterly QBO, pollution rises, while La Niña and easterly QBO improve air quality through changes in atmospheric circulation and weather conditions.
Yuxuan Qi, Wenshuai Li, Wen Qu, Haizhou Zhang, Wenqing Zhu, Jinhui Shi, Daizhou Zhang, Yanjing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Wencai Wang, Yunhui Zhao, Yuanyuan Ma, Danyang Ren, Guanru Wu, Xinfeng Wang, Xiaohong Yao, and Yang Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4005, 2025
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The Yellow-Bohai Sea region lies downwind of heavily polluted East Asia. Research reveals how land and ship pollution impact coastal air in Qingdao and nearby seas. Ship and coal emissions worsen marine air quality, with summer zinc and arsenic levels exceeding land. Spring carries city pollution seaward, summer pushes ship emissions ashore. Using 81 air samples, the study shows seasonal shifts between dust, industry & combustion sources, highlighting growing human impacts on marine ecosystems.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5959–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, 2025
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Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdowns) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Yueming Cheng, Tie Dai, Junji Cao, Daisuke Goto, Jianbing Jin, Teruyuki Nakajima, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12643–12659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12643-2024, 2024
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In March 2021, east Asia experienced an outbreak of severe dust storms after an absence of 1.5 decades. Here, we innovatively used the time-lagged ground-based aerosol size information with the fixed-lag ensemble Kalman smoother to optimize dust emission and reproduce the dust storm. This work is valuable for not only the quantification of health damage, aviation risks, and profound impacts on the Earth's system but also revealing the climatic driving force and the process of desertification.
Wenshuai Li, Yuxuan Qi, Yingchen Liu, Guanru Wu, Yanjing Zhang, Jinhui Shi, Wenjun Qu, Lifang Sheng, Wencai Wang, Daizhou Zhang, and Yang Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6495–6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6495-2024, 2024
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Aerosol particles from mainland can transport to oceans and deposit, providing soluble Fe and affecting phytoplankton growth. Thus, we studied the dissolution process of aerosol Fe and found that photochemistry played a key role in promoting Fe dissolution in clean conditions. RH-dependent reactions were more influential in slightly polluted conditions. These results highlight the distinct roles of two weather-related parameters (radiation and RH) in influencing geochemical cycles related to Fe.
Feifan Yan, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Rujin Huang, Hong Liao, Ting Yang, Yuanyuan Zhu, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Wenbin Kou, Xinran Zeng, Shengnan Xiang, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Yang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2365–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, 2024
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PM2.5 pollution is a major air quality issue deteriorating human health, and previous studies mostly focus on regions like the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. However, the characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations between these two regions are studied less often. Focusing on the transport corridor region, we identify an interesting seesaw transport phenomenon with stagnant weather conditions, conducive to PM2.5 accumulation over this region, resulting in large health effects.
Min Zhao, Tie Dai, Daisuke Goto, Hao Wang, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 235–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-235-2024, 2024
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During a springtime pollution input from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau, we combined atmospheric chemistry modeling and data assimilation methods to assimilate and forecast aerosols from South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau. Assimilation of observations over a whole time window leads to a more reasonable distribution of daily variations in the aerosol forecast field. We also find that aerosol assimilation can improve the surface solar energy forecast in the Tibetan Plateau region.
Chupeng Zhang, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Yuhang Wang, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Jingkun Jiang, Xin Huang, Xiaojing Shen, Junying Sun, Aura Lupascu, Manish Shrivastava, Jerome D. Fast, Wenxuan Cheng, Xiuwen Guo, Ming Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Qiaoqiao Wang, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10713–10730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, 2023
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New particle formation is an important source of atmospheric particles, exerting critical influences on global climate. Numerical models are vital tools to understanding atmospheric particle evolution, which, however, suffer from large biases in simulating particle numbers. Here we improve the model chemical processes governing particle sizes and compositions. The improved model reveals substantial contributions of newly formed particles to climate through effects on cloud condensation nuclei.
Qian Liu, Guixing Chen, Lifang Sheng, and Toshiki Iwasaki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13371–13388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13371-2022, 2022
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Air pollution can be cleaned up quickly by a cold air outbreak (CAO) but reappears after a CAO. By quantifying the CAO properties, we find the coldness and depth of the cold air mass are key factors affecting the rapid (slow) reappearance of air pollution through modulating the atmospheric boundary layer height and stability. We also find that the spatial pattern of CAO in high-latitude Eurasia a few days ahead can be recognized as a precursor for the reappearance of air pollution.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, Qiang Zhang, and Kebin He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10769–10788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10769-2022, 2022
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We developed a Bayesian atmospheric inversion system based on the 4D local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) algorithm coupled with GEOS-Chem from the latest Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) V10r XCO2 retrievals. This is the first adaptation of 4D-LETKF to an OCO-2-based global carbon inversion system. We inferred global gridded carbon fluxes and investigated their magnitudes, variations, and partitioning schemes to understand the global and regional carbon budgets for 2015–2020.
Xiadong An, Wen Chen, Peng Hu, Shangfeng Chen, and Lifang Sheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6507–6521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6507-2022, 2022
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The intraseasonal NAAA usually establishes quickly on day −3 with a life span of 8 days. Further results revealed that the probability of regional PM2.5 pollution related to the NAAA for at least 2 days in the NCP is 80% in NDJ period 2000–2021. Particularly, air quality in the NCP tends to deteriorate on day 2 prior to the peak day of the NAAA and reaches a peak on day −1 with a life cycle of 4 days. The corresponding meteorological conditions support these conclusions.
Xiadong An, Lifang Sheng, Chun Li, Wen Chen, Yulian Tang, and Jingliang Huangfu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 725–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, 2022
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The North China Plain (NCP) suffered many periods of haze in winter during 1985–2015, related to the rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China. The haze over the NCP is modulated by an anomalous anticyclone caused by the Rossby wave and a north–south circulation (NSC) induced mainly by diabatic heating. As a Rossby wave source, rainfall-induced diabatic heating supports waves and finally strengthens the anticyclone over the NCP. These changes favor haze over the NCP.
Zhenbin Wang, Bin Zhu, Hanqing Kang, Wen Lu, Shuqi Yan, Delong Zhao, Weihang Zhang, and Jinhui Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15555–15567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15555-2021, 2021
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In this paper, by using WRF-Chem with a black carbon (BC) tagging technique, we investigate the formation mechanism and regional sources of a BC peak in the free troposphere observed by aircraft flights. Local sources dominated BC from the surface to about 700 m (78.5 %), while the BC peak in the free troposphere was almost entirely imported from external sources (99.8 %). Our results indicate that cyclone systems can quickly lift BC up to the free troposphere, as well as extend its lifetime.
Tie Dai, Yueming Cheng, Daisuke Goto, Yingruo Li, Xiao Tang, Guangyu Shi, and Teruyuki Nakajima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4357–4379, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4357-2021, 2021
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The anthropogenic emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) over China has significantly declined as a consequence of the clean air actions. We have developed a new emission inversion system to dynamically update the SO2 emission grid by grid over China by assimilating ground-based SO2 observations. The inverted SO2 emission over China in November 2016 on average had declined by 49.4 % since 2010, which is well in agreement with the bottom-up estimation of 48.0 %.
Yueming Cheng, Tie Dai, Jiming Li, and Guangyu Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15307–15322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15307-2020, 2020
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In this paper we present the analysis of the aerosol vertical features observed by CATS collected from 2015 to 2017 over three selected regions (North China, the Tibetan Plateau, and the Tarim Basin) over different timescales. This comprehensive information provides insights into the seasonal variations and diurnal cycles of the aerosol vertical features across East Asia.
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Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size...
