Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
18 Mar 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 18 Mar 2025

Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall

Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini

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Latest update: 28 Mar 2025
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Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
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