A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for  scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts  from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)

Mathison, Camilla; Burke, Eleanor J.; Munday, Gregory; Jones, Chris D.; Smith, Chris J.; Steinert, Norman J.; Wiltshire, Andy J.; Huntingford, Chris; Kovacs, Eszter; Gohar, Laila K.; Varney, Rebecca M.; McNeall, Douglas

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 5

Model description paper

|

14 Mar 2025

Model description paper |

| 14 Mar 2025

A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)

Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025-supplement

Data sets

FaIR: Calibration data for FaIR v1.6.2 is available from zenodo Chris Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6601980

Temps and CO2 concentrations for running PRIME from FaIRv1.6.4 (1.0) [Data set] Camilla Mathison and Chris Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10524338

JULES output from PRIME version 1 Eleanor Burke and Camilla Mathison https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10634291

Model code and software

FAIR - Finite Amplitude Impulse Response Model (multi-forcing version), version v1.3.2 Chris Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1247898

OMS-NetZero/FAIR: Updates to ozone forcing, v1.6.2 Chris Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4465032

ESMValTool (v2.11.0) Bouwe Andela et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12654299

Short summary

We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.