Articles | Volume 17, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
11 Dec 2024
Model evaluation paper |
| 11 Dec 2024
| 11 Dec 2024
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Xiang Song
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Sandy P. Harrison
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK
Jennifer R. Marlon
School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Zhongda Lin
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
L. Ruby Leung
Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5838, Norway
Virginie Marécal
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31000, France
Shiyu Wang
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, 60176, Sweden
Daniel S. Ward
Karen Clark & Company, Boston, MA 02116, USA
Xiao Dong
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Hanna Lee
Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7419, Norway
Lars Nieradzik
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 22362, Sweden
Sam S. Rabin
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Roland Séférian
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31000, France
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23 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Progress and Prospects of the Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility (EarthLab) H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4912-9
- Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire H. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz2429
- Defining probabilistic evacuation triggers for wildfires using an ensemble of flame spread models: The Fort McMurray case study N. Kalogeropoulos & G. Rein https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104912
- Assessing the impact of the Human Development Index on historical trends in the INFERNO fire model J. Teixeira et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026
- 古气候模拟研究进展与展望 仲. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2025-0312
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- Severe rapid indian monsoon weakening due to emissions from extreme Canadian wildfires I. Roșu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00184-w
- Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change T. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113880
- Understanding drivers and biases of simulated CO emissions from the INFERNO fire model over South America M. Velásquez-García et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1341-2026
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- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026
- Mechanisms and scales in modeling forest responses to changing disturbance regimes X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.71384
- Uncertainty in aerosol effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic and natural aerosol parameters in ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3 Y. Bhatti et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-269-2026
- Global wildfire patterns and drivers under climate change H. Bhattarai et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7591-2025
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- Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100 T. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05918-5
- Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States B. Law et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02314-0
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected fire weather intensification across the Mediterranean: implications for management and restoration C. Gallo et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00477-5
- Progress and Prospects of the Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility (EarthLab) H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4912-9
- Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire H. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz2429
- Defining probabilistic evacuation triggers for wildfires using an ensemble of flame spread models: The Fort McMurray case study N. Kalogeropoulos & G. Rein https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104912
- Assessing the impact of the Human Development Index on historical trends in the INFERNO fire model J. Teixeira et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026
- 古气候模拟研究进展与展望 仲. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2025-0312
- The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics A. Williams et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1157-2026
- Assessment of Regional Fire Carbon Emissions during 2003–23 Simulated by Multiple CMIP6 Models H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5309-5
- Parameterizations of human activities in paleoclimate modeling: Current status and future perspectives X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1877-y
- Severe rapid indian monsoon weakening due to emissions from extreme Canadian wildfires I. Roșu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00184-w
- Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change T. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113880
- Understanding drivers and biases of simulated CO emissions from the INFERNO fire model over South America M. Velásquez-García et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1341-2026
- The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) for CMIP7 F. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3989-2026
- Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks C. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10571-y
- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026
- Mechanisms and scales in modeling forest responses to changing disturbance regimes X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.71384
- Uncertainty in aerosol effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic and natural aerosol parameters in ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3 Y. Bhatti et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-269-2026
- Global wildfire patterns and drivers under climate change H. Bhattarai et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7591-2025
- Optimizing global forest burned area simulations: Multi-earth system model assessment, Bayesian model averaging synthesis, and climate drivers X. Wang & Z. Di https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105390
- Progress and prospects in paleoclimate modeling Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1919-6
- Quantifying CO 2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions V. Verjans et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt5088
- Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100 T. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05918-5
- Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States B. Law et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02314-0
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 22 Jul 2026
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19...
