Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
31 Jan 2024
Model description paper |
| 31 Jan 2024
| 31 Jan 2024
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Jianhong Lin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Daniel Berveiller
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Christophe François
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Heikki Hänninen
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
SFGA Research Center for Torreya grandis, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Alexandre Morfin
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Gaëlle Vincent
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Rui Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
SFGA Research Center for Torreya grandis, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Cyrille Rathgeber
INRAE, SILVA, Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, Nancy, France
Nicolas Delpierre
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Institut Universitaire de France (IUF), 75005, Paris, France
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Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Linking chilling with forcing: ontogenetic competence in process-based tree phenology models R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpag130
- Environmental Sensitivity and Impact of Climate Change on leaf-, wood- and root Phenology for the Overstory and Understory of Temperate Deciduous Forests M. Campioli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-024-00233-5
- Decreasing frequency and extent of frost damage in European oaks over 1961-2021 J. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110927
- Emerging trend of increasing spring frost damage for beech at higher elevations in the Jura Mountains: evidence from tree‐ring data Y. Vitasse et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.70471
- Genetic Variation Associated with Leaf Phenology in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur L.) Implicates Pathogens, Herbivores, and Heat Stress as Selective Drivers J. Isaksson et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081233
- Phenology Across Scales: An Intercontinental Analysis of Leaf‐Out Dates in Temperate Deciduous Tree Communities N. Delpierre et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13910
- Satellite data show trees delay budburst across landscapes to escape herbivores S. Mallick et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9
- Risk of extreme climate impacts on European Norway spruce forest: drought and frost in the climate emergency D. Ray et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03954-z
- Unapparent trees: escaping enemies in time by being discreet, unpredictable and inaccessible S. Mallick et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/oik.11218
- Reconciling Pollen Limitation Theories: Insights From Temperate Oak Masting E. Fleurot et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70009
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Linking chilling with forcing: ontogenetic competence in process-based tree phenology models R. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpag130
- Environmental Sensitivity and Impact of Climate Change on leaf-, wood- and root Phenology for the Overstory and Understory of Temperate Deciduous Forests M. Campioli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-024-00233-5
- Decreasing frequency and extent of frost damage in European oaks over 1961-2021 J. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110927
- Emerging trend of increasing spring frost damage for beech at higher elevations in the Jura Mountains: evidence from tree‐ring data Y. Vitasse et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.70471
- Genetic Variation Associated with Leaf Phenology in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur L.) Implicates Pathogens, Herbivores, and Heat Stress as Selective Drivers J. Isaksson et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081233
- Phenology Across Scales: An Intercontinental Analysis of Leaf‐Out Dates in Temperate Deciduous Tree Communities N. Delpierre et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13910
- Satellite data show trees delay budburst across landscapes to escape herbivores S. Mallick et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9
- Risk of extreme climate impacts on European Norway spruce forest: drought and frost in the climate emergency D. Ray et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03954-z
- Unapparent trees: escaping enemies in time by being discreet, unpredictable and inaccessible S. Mallick et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/oik.11218
- Reconciling Pollen Limitation Theories: Insights From Temperate Oak Masting E. Fleurot et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70009
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Oct 2026
Short summary
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The...
