Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
31 Jan 2024
Model description paper |
| 31 Jan 2024
| 31 Jan 2024
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Jianhong Lin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Daniel Berveiller
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Christophe François
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Heikki Hänninen
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
SFGA Research Center for Torreya grandis, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Alexandre Morfin
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Gaëlle Vincent
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Rui Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
SFGA Research Center for Torreya grandis, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China
Cyrille Rathgeber
INRAE, SILVA, Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, Nancy, France
Nicolas Delpierre
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Institut Universitaire de France (IUF), 75005, Paris, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Tanguy Postic, François de Coligny, Isabelle Chuine, Louis Devresse, Daniel Berveiller, Hervé Cochard, Matthias Cuntz, Nicolas Delpierre, Émilie Joetzjer, Jean-Marc Limousin, Jean-Marc Ourcival, François Pimont, Julien Ruffault, Guillaume Simioni, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, and Xavier Morin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2110, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
PHOREAU is a forest dynamic model that links plant traits with water use, growth, and climate responses to explore how species diversity affects productivity and resilience. Validated across European forests, PHOREAU simulates how tree communities function under drought and warming. Our findings support the use of trait-based modeling to guide forest adaptation strategies under future climate scenarios.
Noémie Delpouve, Laurent Bergès, Jean-Luc Dupouey, Sandrine Chauchard, Nathalie Leroy, Erwin Thirion, and Cyrille Barthélémy Karl Rathgeber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4099, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the upper forest line has climbed over the past decades, shaping mountain landscapes in response to global changes. Thanks to historical land-use maps, we documented the forest-line rise across the entire French Pyrenees and over a long time span. The forest line has moved upward since the 1850s, driven by the regional abandonment of grazing and the presence of the mountain pine. However, despite a recent acceleration, the forest line has been unable to keep pace with global warming.
Arsène Druel, Julien Ruffault, Hendrik Davi, André Chanzy, Olivier Marloie, Miquel De Cáceres, Albert Olioso, Florent Mouillot, Christophe François, Kamel Soudani, and Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul
Biogeosciences, 22, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate radiation data are essential for understanding ecosystem functions and dynamics. Traditional large-scale data lack the precision needed for complex terrain. This study introduces a new model, which accounts for sub-daily direct and diffuse radiation effects caused by terrain features, to enhance the radiation data resolution using elevation maps. Tested on a mountainous area, this method significantly improved radiation estimates, benefiting predictions of forest functions.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Hamadou Balde, Gabriel Hmimina, Yves Goulas, Gwendal Latouche, Abderrahmane Ounis, Daniel Berveiller, and Kamel Soudani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-657, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the drivers of GPP and SIF changes and of their links, we examined how SIF and GPP changed at daily and seasonal scales considering canopy structure and abiotic conditions in a deciduous oak forest. The data show that leaf and canopy properties variations, seasonal cycle of PAR, and abiotic factors control not only SIF and GPP changes, but also their links. Further, during the heatwaves in 2022, we noticed that SIF was a proxy of GPP, while VIs were not.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
Biogeosciences, 20, 3093–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain functions that allow them to build their trunks using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations, we were able to investigate the effect that a lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 20, 3119–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
After simulating the effects of low levels of potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in Part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees in acquiring carbon is enough to explain why they produce less wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Mark A. Adams, Balázs Adorján, David Aguadé, Marcos P. M. Aidar, Scott Allen, M. Susana Alvarado-Barrientos, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Luiza Maria Aparecido, M. Altaf Arain, Ismael Aranda, Heidi Asbjornsen, Robert Baxter, Eric Beamesderfer, Z. Carter Berry, Daniel Berveiller, Bethany Blakely, Johnny Boggs, Gil Bohrer, Paul V. Bolstad, Damien Bonal, Rosvel Bracho, Patricia Brito, Jason Brodeur, Fernando Casanoves, Jérôme Chave, Hui Chen, Cesar Cisneros, Kenneth Clark, Edoardo Cremonese, Hongzhong Dang, Jorge S. David, Teresa S. David, Nicolas Delpierre, Ankur R. Desai, Frederic C. Do, Michal Dohnal, Jean-Christophe Domec, Sebinasi Dzikiti, Colin Edgar, Rebekka Eichstaedt, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jan Elbers, Cleiton B. Eller, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Brent Ewers, Patrick Fonti, Alicia Forner, David I. Forrester, Helber C. Freitas, Marta Galvagno, Omar Garcia-Tejera, Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Teresa E. Gimeno, John Grace, André Granier, Anne Griebel, Yan Guangyu, Mark B. Gush, Paul J. Hanson, Niles J. Hasselquist, Ingo Heinrich, Virginia Hernandez-Santana, Valentine Herrmann, Teemu Hölttä, Friso Holwerda, James Irvine, Supat Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Paul G. Jarvis, Hubert Jochheim, Carlos A. Joly, Julia Kaplick, Hyun Seok Kim, Leif Klemedtsson, Heather Kropp, Fredrik Lagergren, Patrick Lane, Petra Lang, Andrei Lapenas, Víctor Lechuga, Minsu Lee, Christoph Leuschner, Jean-Marc Limousin, Juan Carlos Linares, Maj-Lena Linderson, Anders Lindroth, Pilar Llorens, Álvaro López-Bernal, Michael M. Loranty, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Cate Macinnis-Ng, Isabelle Maréchaux, Timothy A. Martin, Ashley Matheny, Nate McDowell, Sean McMahon, Patrick Meir, Ilona Mészáros, Mirco Migliavacca, Patrick Mitchell, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Georgianne W. Moore, Ryogo Nakada, Furong Niu, Rachael H. Nolan, Richard Norby, Kimberly Novick, Walter Oberhuber, Nikolaus Obojes, A. Christopher Oishi, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ram Oren, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Teemu Paljakka, Oscar Perez-Priego, Pablo L. Peri, Richard L. Peters, Sebastian Pfautsch, William T. Pockman, Yakir Preisler, Katherine Rascher, George Robinson, Humberto Rocha, Alain Rocheteau, Alexander Röll, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Lucy Rowland, Alexey V. Rubtsov, Santiago Sabaté, Yann Salmon, Roberto L. Salomón, Elisenda Sánchez-Costa, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Bernhard Schuldt, Alexandr Shashkin, Clément Stahl, Marko Stojanović, Juan Carlos Suárez, Ge Sun, Justyna Szatniewska, Fyodor Tatarinov, Miroslav Tesař, Frank M. Thomas, Pantana Tor-ngern, Josef Urban, Fernando Valladares, Christiaan van der Tol, Ilja van Meerveld, Andrej Varlagin, Holm Voigt, Jeffrey Warren, Christiane Werner, Willy Werner, Gerhard Wieser, Lisa Wingate, Stan Wullschleger, Koong Yi, Roman Zweifel, Kathy Steppe, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Transpiration is a key component of global water balance, but it is poorly constrained from available observations. We present SAPFLUXNET, the first global database of tree-level transpiration from sap flow measurements, containing 202 datasets and covering a wide range of ecological conditions. SAPFLUXNET and its accompanying R software package
sapfluxnetrwill facilitate new data syntheses on the ecological factors driving water use and drought responses of trees and forests.
Kamel Soudani, Nicolas Delpierre, Daniel Berveiller, Gabriel Hmimina, Jean-Yves Pontailler, Lou Seureau, Gaëlle Vincent, and Éric Dufrêne
Biogeosciences, 18, 3391–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3391-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3391-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an exhaustive comparative survey of eight proximal methods to estimate forest phenology. We focused on methodological aspects and thoroughly assessed deviations between predicted and observed phenological dates and pointed out their main causes. We show that proximal methods provide robust phenological metrics. They can be used to retrieve long-term phenological series at flux measurement sites and help interpret the interannual variability and trends of mass and energy exchanges.
Chris R. Flechard, Andreas Ibrom, Ute M. Skiba, Wim de Vries, Marcel van Oijen, David R. Cameron, Nancy B. Dise, Janne F. J. Korhonen, Nina Buchmann, Arnaud Legout, David Simpson, Maria J. Sanz, Marc Aubinet, Denis Loustau, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Ivan A. Janssens, Mari Pihlatie, Ralf Kiese, Jan Siemens, André-Jean Francez, Jürgen Augustin, Andrej Varlagin, Janusz Olejnik, Radosław Juszczak, Mika Aurela, Daniel Berveiller, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Ulrich Dämmgen, Nicolas Delpierre, Vesna Djuricic, Julia Drewer, Eric Dufrêne, Werner Eugster, Yannick Fauvel, David Fowler, Arnoud Frumau, André Granier, Patrick Gross, Yannick Hamon, Carole Helfter, Arjan Hensen, László Horváth, Barbara Kitzler, Bart Kruijt, Werner L. Kutsch, Raquel Lobo-do-Vale, Annalea Lohila, Bernard Longdoz, Michal V. Marek, Giorgio Matteucci, Marta Mitosinkova, Virginie Moreaux, Albrecht Neftel, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Kim Pilegaard, Gabriel Pita, Francisco Sanz, Jan K. Schjoerring, Maria-Teresa Sebastià, Y. Sim Tang, Hilde Uggerud, Marek Urbaniak, Netty van Dijk, Timo Vesala, Sonja Vidic, Caroline Vincke, Tamás Weidinger, Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Eiko Nemitz, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 17, 1583–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Experimental evidence from a network of 40 monitoring sites in Europe suggests that atmospheric nitrogen deposition to forests and other semi-natural vegetation impacts the carbon sequestration rates in ecosystems, as well as the net greenhouse gas balance including other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. Excess nitrogen deposition in polluted areas also leads to other environmental impacts such as nitrogen leaching to groundwater and other pollutant gaseous emissions.
Elodie Alice Courtois, Clément Stahl, Benoit Burban, Joke Van den Berge, Daniel Berveiller, Laëtitia Bréchet, Jennifer Larned Soong, Nicola Arriga, Josep Peñuelas, and Ivan August Janssens
Biogeosciences, 16, 785–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-785-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Measuring greenhouse gases (GHGs) from a natural ecosystem remains a contemporary challenge. We tested the use of appropriate technology for the estimation of soil fluxes of the three main GHGs in a tropical rainforest for 4 months. We showed that our design allowed the continuous high-frequency measurement of the three gases in a tropical biome and provide recommendations for its implementation. This study is a major step in the estimation of the global GHG budget of tropical forests.
J. Guillemot, N. K. Martin-StPaul, E. Dufrêne, C. François, K. Soudani, J. M. Ourcival, and N. Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 12, 2773–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2773-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2773-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the annual C allocation to wood in French forests. Our study supports the premise that the growth of European tree species is subject to complex control processes that include both source and sink limitations. We suggest a straightforward modelling framework with which to implement these combined forest growth limitations into terrestrial biosphere models.
J. Otto, D. Berveiller, F.-M. Bréon, N. Delpierre, G. Geppert, A. Granier, W. Jans, A. Knohl, A. Kuusk, B. Longdoz, E. Moors, M. Mund, B. Pinty, M.-J. Schelhaas, and S. Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 11, 2411–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2411-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Biogeosciences
Soil nitrous oxide emissions from global land ecosystems and their drivers within the LPJ-GUESS model (v4.1)
Parameterization toolbox for a physical–biogeochemical model compatible with FABM – a case study: the coupled 1D GOTM–ECOSMO E2E for the Sylt–Rømø Bight, North Sea
H2MV (v1.0): global physically constrained deep learning water cycle model with vegetation
NN-TOC v1: global prediction of total organic carbon in marine sediments using deep neural networks
China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) for the period 2012–2022
Process-based modeling of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence with VISIT-SIF version 1.0
Including the phosphorus cycle into the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model (v4.1, r10994) – global patterns and temporal trends of N and P primary production limitation
A comprehensive land-surface vegetation model for multi-stream data assimilation, D&B v1.0
Sources of uncertainty in the SPITFIRE global fire model: development of LPJmL-SPITFIRE1.9 and directions for future improvements
The unicellular NUM v.0.91: a trait-based plankton model evaluated in two contrasting biogeographic provinces
FESOM2.1-REcoM3-MEDUSA2: an ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model coupled to a sediment model
Satellite-based modeling of wetland methane emissions on a global scale (SatWetCH4 1.0)
Emulating grid-based forest carbon dynamics using machine learning: an LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 application
Systematic underestimation of type-specific ecosystem process variability in the Community Land Model v5 over Europe
pyVPRM: A next-generation Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model for the post-MODIS era
Lambda-PFLOTRAN 1.0: a workflow for incorporating organic matter chemistry informed by ultra high resolution mass spectrometry into biogeochemical modeling
An improved model for air–sea exchange of elemental mercury in MITgcm-ECCOv4-Hg: the role of surfactants and waves
BOATSv2: new ecological and economic features improve simulations of high seas catch and effort
A dynamical process-based model for quantifying global agricultural ammonia emissions – AMmonia–CLIMate v1.0 (AMCLIM v1.0) – Part 1: Land module for simulating emissions from synthetic fertilizer use
Simulating the drought response of European tree species with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, 97c552c5)
Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627
Biological nitrogen fixation of natural and agricultural vegetation simulated with LPJmL 5.7.9
Learning from conceptual models – a study of the emergence of cooperation towards resource protection in a social–ecological system
Development and assessment of the physical-biogeochemical ocean regional model in the Northwest Pacific: NPRT v1.0 (ROMS v3.9–TOPAZ v2.0)
TROLL 4.0: representing water and carbon fluxes, leaf phenology and intraspecific trait variation in a mixed-species individual-based forest dynamics model – Part 1: Model description
The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests
TROLL 4.0: representing water and carbon fluxes, leaf phenology, and intraspecific trait variation in a mixed-species individual-based forest dynamics model – Part 2: Model evaluation for two Amazonian sites
Estimation of above- and below-ground ecosystem parameters for the DVM-DOS-TEM v0.7.0 model using MADS v1.7.3: a synthetic case study
DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology
Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model
Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model
Assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes within the adjoint-based data assimilation system – Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0)
ML4Fire-XGBv1.0: Improving North American wildfire prediction by integrating a machine-learning fire model in a land surface model
Alquimia v1.0: A generic interface to biogeochemical codes – A tool for interoperable development, prototyping and benchmarking for multiphysics simulators
Quantifying the role of ozone-caused damage to vegetation in the Earth system: a new parameterization scheme for photosynthetic and stomatal responses
Radiocarbon analysis reveals underestimation of soil organic carbon persistence in new-generation soil models
Exploring the potential of history matching for land surface model calibration
EAT v1.0.0: a 1D test bed for physical–biogeochemical data assimilation in natural waters
Using deep learning to integrate paleoclimate and global biogeochemistry over the Phanerozoic Eon
Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier
Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0
In silico calculation of soil pH by SCEPTER v1.0
Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes
A global behavioural model of human fire use and management: WHAM! v1.0
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR) version 1.0: simulating ecophysiological responses of vegetation to atmospheric chemical and meteorological changes
biospheremetrics v1.0.2: an R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators – human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk)
Modeling boreal forest soil dynamics with the microbially explicit soil model MIMICS+ (v1.0)
Optimal enzyme allocation leads to the constrained enzyme hypothesis: the Soil Enzyme Steady Allocation Model (SESAM; v3.1)
Implementing a dynamic representation of fire and harvest including subgrid-scale heterogeneity in the tile-based land surface model CLASSIC v1.45
Inferring the tree regeneration niche from inventory data using a dynamic forest model
Jianyong Ma, Almut Arneth, Benjamin Smith, Peter Anthoni, Xu-Ri, Peter Eliasson, David Wårlind, Martin Wittenbrink, and Stefan Olin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3131–3155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Hoa Nguyen, Ute Daewel, Neil Banas, and Corinna Schrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Parameterization is key in modeling to reproduce observations well but is often done manually. This study presents a particle-swarm-optimizer-based toolbox for marine ecosystem models, compatible with the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models, thus enhancing its reusability. Applied to the Sylt ecosystem, the toolbox effectively (1) identified multiple parameter sets that matched observations well, providing different insights into ecosystem dynamics, and (2) optimized model complexity.
Zavud Baghirov, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Marco Körner, and Basil Kraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2921–2943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an innovative approach to studying the Earth's water cycle by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with a traditional water cycle model. Our model is designed to learn from observational data, with a particular emphasis on understanding the influence of vegetation on water movement. By closely aligning with real-world observations, our model offers new possibilities for enhancing our understanding of the water cycle and its interactions with vegetation.
Naveenkumar Parameswaran, Everardo González, Ewa Burwicz-Galerne, Malte Braack, and Klaus Wallmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2521–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research uses deep learning to predict organic carbon stocks in ocean sediments, which is crucial for understanding their role in the global carbon cycle. By analysing over 22 000 samples and various seafloor characteristics, our model gives more accurate results than traditional methods. We estimate that the top 10 cm of ocean sediments hold about 156 Pg of carbon. This work enhances carbon stock estimates and helps plan future sampling strategies to better understand oceanic carbon burial.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2509–2520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) estimated wildfire emissions in China during 2012–2022 as 78.13 Tg CO2, 279.47 Gg CH4, and 6.26 Gg N2O annually. Agricultural fires dominated emissions, while forest and grassland emissions decreased. Seasonal peaks occurred in late spring, with hotspots in northeast, southwest, and east China. The model emphasizes the importance of using localized emission factors and high-resolution fire estimates for accurate assessments.
Tatsuya Miyauchi, Makoto Saito, Hibiki M. Noda, Akihiko Ito, Tomomichi Kato, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2329–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an effective indicator for monitoring photosynthetic activity. This paper introduces VISIT-SIF, a biogeochemical model developed based on the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) to represent satellite-observed SIF. Our simulations reproduced the global distribution and seasonal variations in observed SIF. VISIT-SIF helps to improve photosynthetic processes through a combination of biogeochemical modeling and observed SIF.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2249–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they changed from 1901 to 2018. We find that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Trine Frisbæk Hansen, Donald Eugene Canfield, Ken Haste Andersen, and Christian Jannik Bjerrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1895–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe and test the size-based Nutrient-Unicellular-Multicellular model, which defines unicellular plankton using a single set of parameters, on a eutrophic and oligotrophic ecosystem. The results demonstrate that both sites can be modeled with similar parameters and robust performance over a wide range of parameters. The study shows that the model is useful for non-experts and applicable for modeling ecosystems with limited data. It holds promise for evolutionary and deep-time climate models.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Juliette Bernard, Elodie Salmon, Marielle Saunois, Shushi Peng, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Antoine Berchet, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, Joachim Jansen, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 863–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in the evaluation of the drivers of temporal variability of methane emissions from wetlands on a global scale. Here, a simplified global model is developed, taking advantage of advances in remote-sensing data and in situ observations. The model reproduces the large spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights into sensitivity analyses.
Carolina Natel, David Martin Belda, Peter Anthoni, Neele Haß, Sam Rabin, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Complex models predict forest carbon responses to future climate change but are slow and computationally intensive, limiting large-scale analyses. We used machine learning to accelerate predictions from the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Our emulators, based on random forests and neural networks, achieved 97 % faster simulations. This approach enables rapid exploration of climate mitigation strategies and supports informed policy decisions.
Christian Poppe Terán, Bibi S. Naz, Harry Vereecken, Roland Baatz, Rosie A. Fisher, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water resource availability and climate change mitigation. Land surface models, like the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), simulate these. This study finds that CLM5 and other data sets underestimate the magnitudes of and variability in carbon and water exchanges for the most abundant plant functional types compared to observations. It provides essential insights for further research into these processes.
Theo Glauch, Julia Marshall, Christoph Gerbig, Santiago Botía, Michał Gałkowski, Sanam N. Vardag, and André Butz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) estimates carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere by modeling gross primary production and respiration using satellite data and weather variables. Our new version, pyVPRM, supports diverse satellite products like Sentinel-2, MODIS, VIIRS and new land cover maps, enabling high spatial and temporal resolution. This improves flux estimates, especially in complex landscapes, and ensures continuity as MODIS nears decommissioning.
Katherine A. Muller, Peishi Jiang, Glenn Hammond, Tasneem Ahmadullah, Hyun-Seob Song, Ravi Kukkadapu, Nicholas Ward, Madison Bowe, Rosalie K. Chu, Qian Zhao, Vanessa A. Garayburu-Caruso, Alan Roebuck, and Xingyuan Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8955–8968, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The new Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow incorporates organic matter chemistry into reaction networks to simulate aerobic respiration and biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a Python-based workflow in a Jupyter notebook interface that digests raw organic matter chemistry data via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, develops a representative reaction network, and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open-source, parallel-reactive-flow, and transport code PFLOTRAN.
Ling Li, Peipei Wu, Peng Zhang, Shaojian Huang, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8683–8695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we incorporate sea surfactants and wave-breaking processes into MITgcm-ECCOv4-Hg. The updated model shows increased fluxes in high-wind-speed and high-wave regions and vice versa, enhancing spatial heterogeneity. It shows that elemental mercury (Hg0) transfer velocity is more sensitive to wind speed. These findings may elucidate the discrepancies in previous estimations and offer insights into global Hg cycling.
Jerome Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Ryan F. Heneghan, and Eric D. Galbraith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8421–8454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATSv2) model dynamically simulates global commercial fish populations and their coupling with fishing activity, as emerging from environmental and economic drivers. New features, including separate pelagic and demersal populations, iron limitation, and spatial variation of fishing costs and management, improve the accuracy of high seas fisheries. The updated model code is available to simulate both historical and future scenarios.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, and Mark A. Sutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8181–8222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from fertilizer use and also taking into account how the environment influences these NH3 emissions. It is estimated that about 17 % of applied N in fertilizers was lost due to NH3 emissions. Hot and dry conditions and regions with high-pH soils can expect higher NH3 emissions.
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Saeed Harati-Asl, Liliana Perez, and Roberto Molowny-Horas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7423–7443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Social–ecological systems are the subject of many sustainability problems. Because of the complexity of these systems, we must be careful when intervening in them; otherwise we may cause irreversible damage. Using computer models, we can gain insight about these complex systems without harming them. In this paper we describe how we connected an ecological model of forest insect infestation with a social model of cooperation and simulated an intervention measure to save a forest from infestation.
Daehyuk Kim, Hyun-Chae Jung, Jae-Hong Moon, and Na-Hyeon Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1509, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Physical–biogeochemical ocean global models is difficult to analyze oceanic environmental systems. To accurately understand the physical–biogeochemical processes at the regional scale, physical and biogeochemical models were coupled at a high resolution. The results successfully simulated the seasonal variations of chlorophyll and nutrients, particularly in the marginal seas, which were not captured by global models. The model is an important tool for studying physical–biogeochemical processes.
Isabelle Maréchaux, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Sylvain Schmitt, and Jérôme Chave
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics that represents trees in a virtual space at one-meter resolution. Tree birth, growth, death and the underlying physiological processes such as carbon assimilation, water transpiration and leaf phenology depend on plant traits that are measured in the field for many individuals and species. The model is thus capable of jointly simulating forest structure, diversity and ecosystem functioning, a major challenge in modelling vegetation dynamics.
Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Zoltán Barcza, Dóra Hidy, Zuzana Sitková, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanovic, Daniel Kurjak, Michal Bošel'a, Doroteja Bitunjac, Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Jiří Novák, Peter Fleischer, and Tomáš Hlásny
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7317–7346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a multi-objective calibration approach leading to robust parameter values aiming to strike a balance between their local precision and broad applicability. Using the Biome-BGCMuSo model, we tested the calibrated parameter sets for simulating European beech forest dynamics across large environmental gradients. Leveraging data from 87 plots and five European countries, the results demonstrated reasonable local accuracy and plausible large-scale productivity responses.
Sylvain Schmitt, Fabian Fischer, James Ball, Nicolas Barbier, Marion Boisseaux, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Xiuzhi Chen, Géraldine Derroire, Jeremy Lichstein, Daniela Nemetschek, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Scott Saleska, Giacomo Sellan, Philippe Verley, Grégoire Vincent, Camille Ziegler, Jérôme Chave, and Isabelle Maréchaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the capability of TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics, to represent tropical forest structure, diversity and functioning in two Amazonian forests. Evaluation data include forest inventories, carbon and water fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere, and leaf area and canopy height from remote-sensing products. The model realistically predicts the structure and composition, and the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes at both sites.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Helene Genet, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Valeria Briones, Aiza Kabeer, Andrew L. Mullen, Benjamin Maglio, Tobey Carman, Ruth Rutter, Joy Clein, Chu-Chun Chang, Dogukan Teber, Trevor Smith, Joshua M. Rady, Christina Schädel, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, and Susan M. Natali
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-158, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost could greatly impact global climate. Our study improves modeling of carbon cycling in Arctic ecosystems. We developed an automated method to fine-tune a model that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows, using computer-generated data. Using computer-generated data, we tested our method and found it enhances accuracy and reduces the time needed for calibration. This work helps make climate predictions more reliable in sensitive permafrost regions.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Huajie Zhu, Mousong Wu, Fei Jiang, Michael Vossbeck, Thomas Kaminski, Xiuli Xing, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6337–6363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we developed the Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0). Data assimilation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the robustness and investigate the feasibility and applicability of NUCAS. The assimilation of ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes improved the model performance in gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and sensible heat, showing that COS provides constraints on parameters relevant to carbon-, water-, and energy-related processes.
Ye Liu, Huilin Huang, Sing-Chun Wang, Tao Zhang, Donghui Xu, and Yang Chen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study integrates machine learning with a land surface model to improve wildfire predictions in North America. Traditional models struggle with accurately simulating burned areas due to simplified processes. By combining the predictive power of machine learning with a land model, our hybrid framework better captures fire dynamics. This approach enhances our understanding of wildfire behavior and aids in developing more effective climate and fire management strategies.
Sergi Molins, Benjamin Andre, Jeffrey Johnson, Glenn Hammond, Benjamin Sulman, Konstantin Lipnikov, Marcus Day, James Beisman, Daniil Svyatsky, Hang Deng, Peter Lichtner, Carl Steefel, and David Moulton
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-108, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Developing scientific software and making sure it functions properly requires a significant effort. As we advance our understanding of natural systems, however, there is the need to develop yet more complex models and codes. In this work, we present a piece of software that facilitates this work, specifically with regard to reactive processes. Existing tried-and-true codes are made available via this new interface, freeing up resources to focus on the new aspects of the problems at hand.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4515–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to the accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and the resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the enhanced weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive–transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, and Timothy Lam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3733–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which simulates plant carbon and pollutant uptake and predicts their response to varying atmospheric conditions. This model is designed to couple with an atmospheric chemistry model so that questions related to plant–atmosphere interactions, such as the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and ozone pollution on forest carbon uptake, can be addressed. The model has been well validated with both ground and satellite observations.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Elin Ristorp Aas, Heleen A. de Wit, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2929–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By including microbial processes in soil models, we learn how the soil system interacts with its environment and responds to climate change. We present a soil process model, MIMICS+, which is able to reproduce carbon stocks found in boreal forest soils better than a conventional land model. With the model we also find that when adding nitrogen, the relationship between soil microbes changes notably. Coupling the model to a vegetation model will allow for further study of these mechanisms.
Thomas Wutzler, Christian Reimers, Bernhard Ahrens, and Marion Schrumpf
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2705–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes provide a strong link for elemental fluxes in the earth system. The SESAM model applies an optimality assumption to model those linkages and their adaptation. We found that a previous heuristic description was a special case of a newly developed more rigorous description. The finding of new behaviour at low microbial biomass led us to formulate the constrained enzyme hypothesis. We now can better describe how microbially mediated linkages of elemental fluxes adapt across decades.
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Yannek Käber, Florian Hartig, and Harald Bugmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2727–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many forest models include detailed mechanisms of forest growth and mortality, but regeneration is often simplified. Testing and improving forest regeneration models is challenging. We address this issue by exploring how forest inventories from unmanaged European forests can be used to improve such models. We find that competition for light among trees is captured by the model, unknown model components can be informed by forest inventory data, and climatic effects are challenging to capture.
Cited articles
Alberto, F., Bouffier, L., Louvet, J. M., Lamy, J. B., Delzon, S., and Kremer, A.: Adaptive responses for seed and leaf phenology in natural populations of sessile oak along an altitudinal gradient, J. Evol. Biol., 24, 1442–1454, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1420-9101.2011.02277.x, 2011.
Basler, D.: Evaluating phenological models for the prediction of leaf-out dates in six temperate tree species across central Europe, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 217, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.007, 2016.
Basler, D. and Korner, C.: Photoperiod sensitivity of bud burst in 14 temperate forest tree species, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 165, 73–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.001, 2012.
Baumgarten, F., Zohner, C. M., Gessler, A., and Vitasse, Y.: Chilled to be forced: the best dose to wake up buds from winter dormancy, New Phytol., 230, 1366–1377, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17270, 2021.
Bennie, J., Kubin, E., Wiltshire, A., Huntley, B., and Baxter, R.: Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud-burst and spring frost risk in north-west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 1503–1514, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02095.x, 2010.
Blanquart, F., Kaltz, O., Nuismer, S. L., and Gandon, S.: A practical guide to measuring local adaptation, Ecol. Lett., 16, 1195–1205, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12150, 2013.
Bontemps, A., Lefevre, F., Davi, H., and Oddou-Muratorio, S.: In situ marker-based assessment of leaf trait evolutionary potential in a marginal European beech population, J. Evol. Biol., 29, 514–527, https://doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12801, 2016.
Caradonna, P. J., Iler, A. M., and Inouye, D. W.: Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 4916–4921, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323073111, 2014.
Caudullo, G., Welk, E., and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Chorological maps for the main European woody species, Data Brief, 12, 662–666, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2017.05.007, 2017.
Chen, L., Huang, J. G., Ma, Q., Hanninen, H., Rossi, S., Piao, S., and Bergeron, Y.: Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 3969–3975, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14288, 2018.
Chen, L., Huang, J. G., Ma, Q., Hanninen, H., Tremblay, F., and Bergeron, Y.: Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 997–1004, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14496, 2019.
Chen, X. Q., Wang, L. X., and Inouye, D.: Delayed response of spring phenology to global warming in subtropics and tropics, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 234, 222–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.01.002, 2017.
Chesnoiu, E. N., Şofletea, N., Curtu, A. L., Toader, A., Radu, R., and Enescu, M.: Bud burst and flowering phenology in a mixed oak forest from Eastern Romania, Ann. Forest Res., 52, 199–206, https://doi.org/10.15287/afr.2009.136, 2009.
Chuine, I.: Why does phenology drive species distribution?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 365, 3149–3160, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0142, 2010.
Chuine, I. and Regniere, J.: Process-Based Models of Phenology for Plants and Animals, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 48, 159–182, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-022706, 2017.
Cooke, J. E., Eriksson, M. E., and Junttila, O.: The dynamic nature of bud dormancy in trees: environmental control and molecular mechanisms, Plant Cell Environ., 35, 1707–1728, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2012.02552.x, 2012.
Dantec, C. F., Ducasse, H., Capdevielle, X., Fabreguettes, O., Delzon, S., and Desprez-Loustau, M. L.: Escape of spring frost and disease through phenological variations in oak populations along elevation gradients, J. Ecol., 103, 1044–1056, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12403, 2015.
Delpierre, N., Dufrene, E., Soudani, K., Ulrich, E., Cecchini, S., Boe, J., and Francois, C.: Modelling interannual and spatial variability of leaf senescence for three deciduous tree species in France, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 938–948, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.11.014, 2009.
Delpierre, N., Vitasse, Y., Chuine, I., Guillemot, J., Bazot, S., Rutishauser, T., and Rathgeber, C. B. K.: Temperate and boreal forest tree phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models, Ann. Forest Sci., 73, 5–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-015-0477-6, 2016.
Delpierre, N., Guillemot, J., Dufrene, E., Cecchini, S., and Nicolas, M.: Tree phenological ranks repeat from year to year and correlate with growth in temperate deciduous forests, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 234, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.12.008, 2017.
Denechere, R., Delpierre, N., Apostol, E. N., Berveiller, D., Bonne, F., Cole, E., Delzon, S., Dufrene, E., Gressler, E., Jean, F., Lebourgeois, F., Liu, G., Louvet, J. M., Parmentier, J., Soudani, K., and Vincent, G.: The within-population variability of leaf spring and autumn phenology is influenced by temperature in temperate deciduous trees, Int. J. Biometeorol., 65, 369–379, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01762-6, 2021.
Du, Y. J., Pan, Y. Q., and Ma, K. P.: Moderate chilling requirement controls budburst for subtropical species in China, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 278, 107693, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107693, 2019.
Dufrene, E., Delpierre, N., Vincent, G., Morfin, A., Berveiller, D., and Lin, J.: The data for WPV model for budburst, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7962840, 2023.
Fu, Y. H., Zhao, H., Piao, S., Peaucelle, M., Peng, S., Zhou, G., Ciais, P., Huang, M., Menzel, A., Penuelas, J., Song, Y., Vitasse, Y., Zeng, Z., and Janssens, I. A.: Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding, Nature, 526, 104–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15402, 2015.
Fu, Y. H., Zhang, X., Piao, S., Hao, F., Geng, X., Vitasse, Y., Zohner, C., Penuelas, J., and Janssens, I. A.: Daylength helps temperate deciduous trees to leaf-out at the optimal time, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 2410–2418, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14633, 2019.
Gauzere, J., Lucas, C., Ronce, O., Davi, H., and Chuine, I.: Sensitivity analysis of tree phenology models reveals increasing sensitivity of their predictions to winter chilling temperature and photoperiod with warming climate, Ecol. Modell., 411, 108805, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108805, 2019.
Hänninen, H.: Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions, Acta Forestalia Fennica, 213, 7660, https://doi.org/10.14214/aff.7660, 1990.
Hänninen, H.: Boreal and temperate trees in a changing climate: Modelling the ecophysiology of seasonality, Dordrecht, Springer Science +Business Media, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-7549-6_1, 2016.
Hänninen, H. and Kramer, K.: A framework for modelling the annual cycle of trees in boreal and temperate regions, Silva Fenn., 41, 167–205, 2007.
Hänninen, H., Kramer, K., Tanino, K., Zhang, R., Wu, J., and Fu, Y. H.: Experiments Are Necessary in Process-Based Tree Phenology Modelling, Trends Plant Sci., 24, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tplants.2018.11.006, 2019.
Hart, S. P., Schreiber, S. J., and Levine, J. M.: How variation between individuals affects species coexistence, Ecol. Lett., 19, 825–838, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12618, 2016.
Jarvinen, P., Lemmetyinen, J., Savolainen, O., and Sopanen, T.: DNA sequence variation in BpMADS2 gene in two populations of Betula pendula, Mol. Ecol., 12, 369–384, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-294x.2003.01740.x, 2003.
Jewaria, P. K., Hanninen, H., Li, X., Bhalerao, R. P., and Zhang, R.: A hundred years after: endodormancy and the chilling requirement in subtropical trees, New Phytol., 231, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17382, 2021.
Keenan, T. F., Carbone, M. S., Reichstein, M., and Richardson, A. D.: The model–data fusion pitfall: assuming certainty in an uncertain world, Oecologia, 167, 587–597, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2106-x, 2011.
Kramer, K.: A Modeling Analysis of the Effects of Climatic Warming on the Probability of Spring Frost Damage To Tree Species in the Netherlands and Germany, Plant Cell Environ., 17, 367–377, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.1994.tb00305.x, 1994.
Kramer, K., Buiteveld, J., Forstreuter, M., Geburek, T., Leonardi, S., Menozzi, P., Povillon, F., Schelhaas, M., du Cros, E. T., Vendramin, G. G., and van der Werf, D. C.: Bridging the gap between ecophysiological and genetic knowledge to assess the adaptive potential of European beech, Ecol. Model., 216, 333–353, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.05.004, 2008.
Langvall, O., Nilsson, U., and Orlander, G.: Frost damage to planted Norway spruce seedlings – influence of site preparation and seedling type, Forest Ecol. Manage., 141, 223–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00331-5, 2001.
Lin, J.: code for wpv model (model simulating the within-population of budburst in tree populations), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10020474, 2023
Liu, G. H., Chuine, I., Denechere, R., Jean, F., Dufrene, E., Vincent, G., Berveiller, D., and Delpierre, N.: Higher sample sizes and observer inter-calibration are needed for reliable scoring of leaf phenology in trees, J. Ecol., 109, 2461–2474, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13656, 2021.
Liu, Q., Piao, S. L., Janssens, I. A., Fu, Y. S., Peng, S. S., Lian, X., Ciais, P., Myneni, R. B., Penuelas, J., and Wang, T.: Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost, Nat. Commun., 9, 426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02690-y, 2018.
Liu, Z., Fu, Y. H., Shi, X., Lock, T. R., Kallenbach, R. L., and Yuan, Z.: Soil moisture determines the effects of climate warming on spring phenology in grasslands, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 323, 109039, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109039, 2022.
Lundell, R., Hanninen, H., Saarinen, T., Astrom, H., and Zhang, R.: Beyond rest and quiescence (endodormancy and ecodormancy): A novel model for quantifying plant-environment interaction in bud dormancy release, Plant Cell Environ., 43, 40–54, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13650, 2020.
Luo, M., Meng, F., Sa, C., Duan, Y., Bao, Y., Liu, T., and De Maeyer, P.: Response of vegetation phenology to soil moisture dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau, CATENA, 206, 105505, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105505, 2021.
Malyshev, A. V., Henry, H. A. L., Bolte, A., Khan, M. A. S. A., and Kreyling, J.: Temporal photoperiod sensitivity and forcing requirements for budburst in temperate tree seedlings, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 248, 82–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.011, 2018.
Malyshev, A. V., van der Maaten, E., Garthen, A., Mass, D., Schwabe, M., and Kreyling, J.: Inter-Individual Budburst Variation in Fagus sylvatica Is Driven by Warming Rate, Front Plant Sci., 13, 853521, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.853521, 2022.
Meier, U.: Growth stages of mono-and dicotyledonous plants, BBCH Monograph, Blackwell Wissenschafts-Verlag Berlin Wien, https://doi.org/10.5073/20180906-074619, 1997.
Meng, L., Zhou, Y., Gu, L., Richardson, A. D., Penuelas, J., Fu, Y., Wang, Y., Asrar, G. R., De Boeck, H. J., Mao, J., Zhang, Y., and Wang, Z.: Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 2914–2927, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15575, 2021.
Menzel, A., Sparks, T. H., Estrella, N., Koch, E., Aasa, A., Ahas, R., Alm-Kubler, K., Bissolli, P., Braslavska, O., Briede, A., Chmielewski, F. M., Crepinsek, Z., Curnel, Y., Dahl, A., Defila, C., Donnelly, A., Filella, Y., Jatcza, K., Mage, F., Mestre, A., Nordli, O., Penuelas, J., Pirinen, P., Remisova, V., Scheifinger, H., Striz, M., Susnik, A., Van Vliet, A. J. H., Wielgolaski, F. E., Zach, S., and Zust, A.: European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 1969–1976, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x, 2006.
Morente-Lopez, J., Kass, J. M., Lara-Romero, C., Serra-Diaz, J. M., Soto-Correa, J. C., Anderson, R. P., and Iriondo, J. M.: Linking ecological niche models and common garden experiments to predict phenotypic differentiation in stressful environments: Assessing the adaptive value of marginal populations in an alpine plant, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 4143–4162, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16181, 2022.
Oddou-Muratorio, S. and Davi, H.: Simulating local adaptation to climate of forest trees with a Physio-Demo-Genetics model, Evol. Appl., 7, 453–467, https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12143, 2014.
Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G.: A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems, Nature, 421, 37–42, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286, 2003.
Petit, R. J. and Hampe, A.: Some evolutionary consequences of being a tree, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 37, 187–214, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110215, 2006.
Piao, S., Liu, Q., Chen, A., Janssens, I. A., Fu, Y., Dai, J., Liu, L., Lian, X., Shen, M., and Zhu, X.: Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 1922–1940, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14619, 2019.
Puchalka, R., Koprowski, M., Przybylak, J., Przybylak, R., and Dabrowski, H. P.: Did the late spring frost in 2007 and 2011 affect tree-ring width and earlywood vessel size in Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in northern Poland?, Int. J. Biometeorol., 60, 1143–1150, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1107-6, 2016.
Rathgeber, C. B., Rossi, S., and Bontemps, J. D.: Cambial activity related to tree size in a mature silver-fir plantation, Ann. Bot., 108, 429–438, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcr168, 2011.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 20 December 2023), 2020.
Renner, S. S. and Zohner, C. M.: Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 49, 165–182, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110617-062535, 2018.
Richardson, A. D., Black, T. A., Ciais, P., Delbart, N., Friedl, M. A., Gobron, N., Hollinger, D. Y., Kutsch, W. L., Longdoz, B., Luyssaert, S., Migliavacca, M., Montagnani, L., Munger, J. W., Moors, E., Piao, S., Rebmann, C., Reichstein, M., Saigusa, N., Tomelleri, E., Vargas, R., and Varlagin, A.: Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity, Philos. T. R. Soc. Lond. B, 365, 3227–3246, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0102, 2010.
Rousi, M. and Heinonen, J.: Temperature sum accumulation effects on within-population variation and long-term trends in date of bud burst of European white birch (Betula pendula), Tree Physiol., 27, 1019–1025, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/27.7.1019, 2007.
Rusanen, M., Vakkari, P., and Blom, A.: Genetic structure of Acer platanoides and Betula pendula in northern Europe, Can. J. Forest Res., 33, 1110–1115, https://doi.org/10.1139/X03-025, 2003.
Scotti, I., González-Martínez, S. C., Budde, K. B., and Lalagüe, H.: Fifty years of genetic studies: what to make of the large amounts of variation found within populations?, Ann. Forest Sci., 73, 69–75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-015-0471-z, 2016.
Vallet, L.: Modélisation de la dynamique intra-populationnelle du débourrement en Ile-de-France, MSc report, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France, 2020.
Vegis, A.: Dormancy in Higher Plants, Annu. Rev. Plant Phys., 15, 185–224, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.pp.15.060164.001153, 1964.
Vidal, J. P., Martin, E., Franchisteguy, L., Baillon, M., and Soubeyroux, J. M.: A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1627–1644, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2003, 2010.
Violle, C., Enquist, B. J., McGill, B. J., Jiang, L., Albert, C. H., Hulshof, C., Jung, V., and Messier, J.: The return of the variance: intraspecific variability in community ecology, Trends Ecol. Evol., 27, 244–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.11.014, 2012.
Vitasse, Y. and Basler, D.: What role for photoperiod in the bud burst phenology of European beech, Eur. J. Forest Res., 132, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-012-0661-2, 2013.
Vitasse, Y., Porte, A. J., Kremer, A., Michalet, R., and Delzon, S.: Responses of canopy duration to temperature changes in four temperate tree species: relative contributions of spring and autumn leaf phenology, Oecologia, 161, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-009-1363-4, 2009a.
Vitasse, Y., Delzon, S., Dufrêne, E., Pontailler, J.-Y., Louvet, J.-M., Kremer, A., and Michalet, R.: Leaf phenology sensitivity to temperature in European trees: Do within-species populations exhibit similar responses?, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 735–744, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.10.019, 2009b.
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., and Rebetez, M.: Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248, 60-69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.005, 2018.
Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J., Fromentin, J. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F.: Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature, 416, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a, 2002.
Wenden, B., Mariadassou, M., Chmielewski, F. M., and Vitasse, Y.: Shifts in the temperature-sensitive periods for spring phenology in European beech and pedunculate oak clones across latitudes and over recent decades, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 1808–1819, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14918, 2020.
Zhang, R., Lin, J. H., Wang, F. C., Shen, S. T., Wang, X. B., Rao, Y., Wu, J. S., and Hanninen, H.: The chilling requirement of subtropical trees is fulfilled by high temperatures: A generalized hypothesis for tree endodormancy release and a method for testing it, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 298, 108296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108296, 2021.
Zhang, R., Lin, J. H., Wang, F. C., Delpierre, N., Kramer, K., Hanninen, H., and Wu, J. S.: Spring phenology in subtropical trees: Developing process-based models on an experimental basis, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 314, 108802, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108802, 2022.
Zohner, C. M., Mo, L., and Renner, S. S.: Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals, elife, 7, e40214, https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.40214, 2018.
Zohner, C. M., Mo, L., Sebald, V., Renner, S. S., and Dornelas, M.: Leaf-out in northern ecotypes of wide-ranging trees requires less spring warming, enhancing the risk of spring frost damage at cold range limits, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 29, 1065–1072, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13088, 2020.
Short summary
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The...
