Articles | Volume 17, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024
Model description paper
 | 
25 Nov 2024
Model description paper |  | 25 Nov 2024

A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1

Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Cited articles

Adeyemi, B. and Akerele, M. I.: The effect of seasonality and stationarity on specific humidity forecast over Nigeria, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 156, 57–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.03.001, 2017. 
Asfaw, D., Black, E., Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R., and Quaife, T.: TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, 2018. 
Black, E., Slingo, J., and Sperber, K. R.: An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 74–94, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2, 2003. 
Black, E., Boult, V. L., Hirons, L., and Woolnough, S. J.: The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector, Meteorol. Appl., https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2190, online first, 2024a. 
Black, E., Asfaw, D. T., Sananka, A., Aston, S., Boult, V. L., and Maidment, R. I.: Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa, Front. Clim., 4, 993511, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.993511, 2024b. 
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Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
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