Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Seppo Pulkkinen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Terhi Mäkinen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
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Jenna Ritvanen, Martin Aregger, Dmitri Moisseev, Urs Germann, Alessandro Hering, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1853–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1853-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1853-2026, 2026
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Convective storms pose several hazards, like heavy rainfall, but operational short-term forecasting (nowcasting) suffers from limited models of storm development. Cell tracking, commonly used for nowcasting of convective storms and analyzing storm evolution, is complicated by splits and merges. We show how splits and merges can be integrated into cell track analysis, using case studies and analysis of split and merge events with operational data from the Swiss weather radar network.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Miguel Aldana, Seppo Pulkkinen, Annakaisa von Lerber, Matthew R. Kumjian, and Dmitri Moisseev
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 793–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-793-2025, 2025
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Accurate KDP estimates are crucial in radar-based applications. We quantify the uncertainties of several publicly available KDP estimation methods for multiple rainfall intensities. We use C-band weather radar observations and employed a self-consistency KDP, estimated from reflectivity and differential reflectivity, as a framework for the examination. Our study provides guidance for the performance, uncertainties, and optimisation of the methods, focusing mainly on accuracy and robustness.
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Short summary
Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (local forecasting for 0–6 h) is crucial for reducing damage from events like flash floods. For this goal, we propose the DEUCE neural-network-based model which uses data and model uncertainties to generate an ensemble of potential precipitation development scenarios for the next hour. Trained and evaluated with Finnish precipitation composites, DEUCE was found to produce more skillful and reliable nowcasts than established models.
Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (local forecasting for 0–6 h) is crucial for reducing...