Articles | Volume 17, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
18 Apr 2024
Model description paper |
| 18 Apr 2024
| 18 Apr 2024
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high-latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
Katie R. Blackford
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment, and Society, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, UK
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, SW7 2BX, UK
Matthew Kasoar
The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment, and Society, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, UK
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, SW7 2BX, UK
Chantelle Burton
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Iain Colin Prentice
The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment, and Society, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, UK
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, UK
Apostolos Voulgarakis
The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment, and Society, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, UK
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, SW7 2BX, UK
School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Kounoupidiana, 73100, Greece
Related authors
No articles found.
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3185–3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used a land surface computer model to forecast how climate change will impact wildfires in Greece. Our results show a significant increase in future burnt area due to hotter, drier climate. Allowing vegetation to change with the climate lessens this increase overall, since fire is no longer igniting in areas already burnt, and it even led to projected decreases in the agricultural areas in the north of the country.
Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and James D. A. Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Humans impact fire indirectly through climate change, but also directly through land use and different fire management strategies. We compare two recently-developed models of global burned area with very different assumptions about the role of direct human impacts on fire. We contrast their future projections and explore the implications of differences between them for climate change adaptation and fire science more broadly.
Joseph Ovwemuvwose, Ian Colin Prentice, and Heather Graven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3785, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the role of cropland representation and the treatment of photosynthetic pathways in the uncertainties in the carbon flux simulations in Earth System Models (ESMs). Our results show that reducing these uncertainties will require improvement of the representation of C3 and C4 crops and natural vegetation area coverage as well as the theories underpinning the simulation of their carbon uptake and storage processes.
Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Matthew W. Jones, Maria L. F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Joe R. McNorton, Zhongwei Liu, Anna S. I. Bradley, Katie Blackford, Eleanor Burke, Andrew Ciavarella, Enza Di Tomaso, Jonathan Eden, Igor José M. Ferreira, Lukas Fiedler, Andrew J. Hartley, Theodore R. Keeping, Seppe Lampe, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Yuquan Qu, Patrícia S. Silva, Fiona R. Spuler, Carmen B. Steinmann, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Renata Veiga, Dave van Wees, Jakob B. Wessel, Emily Wright, Bibiana Bilbao, Mathieu Bourbonnais, Gao Cong, Carlos M. Di Bella, Kebonye Dintwe, Victoria M. Donovan, Sarah Harris, Elena A. Kukavskaya, Brigitte N’Dri, Cristina Santín, Galia Selaya, Johan Sjöström, John Abatzoglou, Niels Andela, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Meier, Mark Parrington, Mojtaba Sadegh, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Fernando Sedano, Marco Turco, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, Liana O. Anderson, Hamish Clarke, Paulo M. Fernandes, and Crystal A. Kolden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-483, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The second State of Wildfires report examines extreme wildfire events from 2024 to early 2025. It analyses key regional events in Southern California, Northeast Amazonia, Pantanal-Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, assessing their drivers, predictability, and attributing them to climate change and land use. Seasonal outlooks and decadal projections are provided. Climate change greatly increased the likelihood of these fires, and without strong mitigation, such events will become more frequent.
Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Burnt areas produced by wildfires around the world are decreasing, especially in tropical regions, but many climate models fail to show this trend. Our study looks at whether adding a measure of human development to a fire model could improve its representation of these processes. We found that including these factors helped the model better match observations in many regions. This shows that human activity plays a key role in shaping fire trends.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Inika Taylor, Douglas I. Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina E. Williams, Andrew J. Hartley, Richard A. Betts, and Chantelle Burton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-720, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is reshaping fire seasons worldwide and, in many places, increasing fire weather risk. We use climate model simulations to project future changes in fire danger at different levels of global warming, focusing on Australia, Brazil, and the USA. Keeping warming below 2 °C significantly limits the increase in fire risk, but even at 1.5 °C, fire seasons lengthen, with more extreme conditions. However, low-fire weather periods remain, offering critical windows for fire management.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Amin Hassan, Iain Colin Prentice, and Xu Liang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-622, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is the evaporation occurring from plants, soil, and water bodies. Separating these components is challenging due to the lack of measurements and uncertainty of existing ET partitioning methods. We propose a method that utilizes hydrological measurements such as streamflow to determine the ratio of transpiration (evaporation from plants) to evapotranspiration. The results provide a better understanding of plant-water interactions and new perspective on a challenging topic.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3897, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used eco-evolutionary optimality modelling to examine how climate and CO2 impacted vegetation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago). Low CO2 at the LGM was as important as climate in reducing tree cover and productivity, and increasing C4 plant abundance. Climate had positive effects on MH vegetation, but the low CO2 was a constraint on plant growth. These results show it is important to consider changing CO2 to model ecosystem changes.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Chantelle Burton, Douglas Kelley, Manoel Cardoso, and Fabiano Morelli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically reviewed 69 papers on fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome to provide insights into its placement in the atmospheric carbon budget and support future improved estimation. We find that estimating fire emissions in the Cerrado requires a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative and qualitative aspects of fire. A pathway towards this is the inclusion of fire management representation in land surface models and the integration of observational and modelling data.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Mengmeng Liu, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard-Oeschger events were large and rapid warming events that occurred multiple times during the last ice age. We show that changes in the northern extratropics and the southern extratropics were anti-phased, with warming over most of the north and cooling in the south. The reconstructions do not provide evidence for a change in seasonality in temperature. However, they do indicate that warming was generally accompanied by wetter conditions and cooling by drier conditions.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Huiying Xu, Han Wang, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 4511–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are crucial elements in leaf construction and physiological processes. This study reconciled the roles of phylogeny, species identity, and climate in stoichiometric traits at individual and community levels. The variations in community-level leaf N and C : N ratio were captured by optimality-based models using climate data. Our results provide an approach to improve the representation of leaf stoichiometry in vegetation models to better couple N with C cycling.
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Elena Marinova, Patrick J. Bartlein, Hans Renssen, and Yurui Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Giulia Mengoli, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Soil water availability affects plant carbon uptake by reducing leaf area and/or by closing stomata, which reduces its efficiency. We present a new formulation of how climatic dryness reduces both maximum carbon uptake and the soil-moisture threshold below which it declines further. This formulation illustrates how plants adapt their water conservation strategy to thrive in dry climates, and is step towards a better representation of soil-moisture effects in climate models.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Nicolas Bellouin, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is altered by greenhouse gases and air pollutant particles, and such emissions are likely to change drastically in the future over Africa. Air pollutants do not travel far, so their climate effect depends on where they are emitted. This study uses a climate model to find the climate impacts of future African pollutant emissions being either high or low. The particles absorb and scatter sunlight, causing the ground nearby to be cooler, but elsewhere the increased heat causes warming.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Jing M. Chen, Rong Wang, Yihong Liu, Liming He, Holly Croft, Xiangzhong Luo, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Trevor F. Keenan, I. Colin Prentice, Yongguang Zhang, Weimin Ju, and Ning Dong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4077–4093, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Green leaves contain chlorophyll pigments that harvest light for photosynthesis and also emit chlorophyll fluorescence as a byproduct. Both chlorophyll pigments and fluorescence can be measured by Earth-orbiting satellite sensors. Here we demonstrate that leaf photosynthetic capacity can be reliably derived globally using these measurements. This new satellite-based information overcomes a bottleneck in global ecological research where such spatially explicit information is currently lacking.
Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Mengmeng Liu, Jose Antonio Lopez Saez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Graciela Gil-Romera, Dana Hoefer, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Heike Schneider, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 18, 1189–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to reconstruct burnt area using a relationship between pollen and charcoal abundances and the calibration of charcoal abundance using modern observations of burnt area. We use this method to reconstruct changes in burnt area over the past 12 000 years from sites in Iberia. We show that regional changes in burnt area reflect known changes in climate, with a high burnt area during warming intervals and low burnt area when the climate was cooler and/or wetter than today.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
João C. Teixeira, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nadine Unger, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fire constitutes a key process in the Earth system, being driven by climate as well as affecting climate. However, studies on the effects of fires on atmospheric composition and climate have been limited to date. This work implements and assesses the coupling of an interactive fire model with atmospheric composition, comparing it to an offline approach. This approach shows good performance at a global scale. However, regional-scale limitations lead to a bias in modelling fire emissions.
Carl Thomas, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Gerald Lim, Joanna Haigh, and Peer Nowack
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 581–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking events are complex large-scale weather patterns which block the path of the jet stream. They are associated with heat waves in summer and cold snaps in winter. Blocking is poorly understood, and the effect of climate change is not clear. Here, we present a new method to study blocking using unsupervised machine learning. We show that this method performs better than previous methods used. These results show the potential for unsupervised learning in atmospheric science.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Yawei Qu, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tijian Wang, Matthew Kasoar, Chris Wells, Cheng Yuan, Sunil Varma, and Laura Mansfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5705–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The meteorological effect of aerosols on tropospheric ozone is investigated using global atmospheric modelling. We found that aerosol-induced meteorological effects act to reduce modelled ozone concentrations over China, which brings the simulation closer to observed levels. Our work sheds light on understudied processes affecting the levels of tropospheric gaseous pollutants and provides a basis for evaluating such processes using a combination of observations and model sensitivity experiments.
Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Chris Huntingford, Megan A. J. Brown, Rhys Whitley, and Ning Dong
Biogeosciences, 18, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Initial evidence suggests human ignitions or landscape changes caused most Amazon fires during August 2019. However, confirmation is needed that meteorological conditions did not have a substantial role. Assessing the influence of historical weather on burning in an uncertainty framework, we find that 2019 meteorological conditions alone should have resulted in much less fire than observed. We conclude socio-economic factors likely had a strong role in the high recorded 2019 fire activity.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Cited articles
Archibald, S.: Managing the human component of fire regimes: lessons from Africa, Philos. T. R. Soc. B., 371, 20150346, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0346, 2016.
Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R., Belcher, C. M., Bond, W. J., Bradstock, R. A., Daniau, A-L., Dexter, K. G., Forrestel, E. J., Greve, M., He, T., Higgins, S. I., Hoffmann, W. A., Lamon, B. B., McGlinn, D. J., Moncrieff, G. R., Osborne, C. P., Pausas, J. G., Price, O., Ripley, B. S., Rogers, B. M., Schwilk, D. W., Simon, M. F., Turetsky, M. R., Van der Werf, G. R., and Zanne, A. E.: Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 033003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ead, 2018.
Bartsch, A., Pointner, G., Nitze, I., Efimova, A., Jakober, D., Ley, S., Hogstrom, E., Grosse, G., and Schweitzer, P.: Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 115013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3176, 2021.
Benscoter, B. W., Thompson, D. K., Waddington, J. M., Flannigan, M., Wotton, M., Groot, W. J., and Turetsky, M. R.: Interactive effects of vegetation, soil moisture and bulk density on depth of burning of thick organic soils, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 20, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08183, 2011.
Blackford, K. R., Kasoar, M., Burton, C., Prentice, C., and Voulgarakis, A.: INFERNO-peat v1.0.0 (v1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10007362, 2023.
Bruhwiler, L., Parmentier, F-J. W., Crill, P., Leonard, M., and Palmer, P. I.: The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 7, 14–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5, 2021.
Burton, C., Betts, R., Cardoso, M., Feldpausch, T. R., Harper, A., Jones, C. D., Kelley, D. I., Robertson, E., and Wiltshire, A.: Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019.
Burton, C., Kelley, D. I., Jones, C. D., Betts, R. A., Cardoso, M., and Anderson, L.: South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions, Climate Res. Sustain., 1, e8, https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.8, 2021.
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Smith, N. D., Bret-Harte, M. S., Charman, D. J., Drewer, J., Edgar, C. W., Euskirchen, E. S., Fortuniak, K., Gao, Y., Nakhavali, M., Pawlak, W., Schuur, E. A. G., and Westermann, S.: A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022.
Che Azmi, N. A., Apandi, N. M., and Rashid, A. S. A.: Carbon emissions from the peat fire problem – a review, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 2, 16948–16961, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12886-x, 2021.
Chen, Y., Romps, D. M., Seeley. J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Riley, W. J., Mekonnen, Z. A., and Randerson, J. T.: Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 404–410, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y, 2021.
Chen, Y., Hall, J., van Wees, D., Andela, N., Hantson, S., Giglio, L., van der Werf, G. R., Morton, D. C., and Randerson, J. T.: Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5) Burned Area (0.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7668424, 2023a.
Chen, Y., Hall, J., van Wees, D., Andela, N., Hantson, S., Giglio, L., van der Werf, G. R., Morton, D. C., and Randerson, J. T.: Multi-decadal trends and variability in burned area from the fifth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023b.
Christensen, E. G., Fernandez-Anex, N., and Rein, G.: Influence of soil moisture conditions on the multidimensional spread of smouldering combustion in shallow layers, Combust. Flame, 214, 361–370, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2019.11.001, 2020.
Christian, H. J. Blakeslee, R. J., Boccippio, D. J., Boeck, W. L., Buechler, D. E., Driscoll, K. T., Goodman, S. J., Hall, J. M., Koshak, W. J., Mach, D. M., and Stewart, M. F.: Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002347, 2003.
Dadap, N. C., Cobb, A. R., Hoyt, A. M., Harvey, C. F., and Konings, A. G.: Satellite soil moisture observations predict burned area in Southeast Asian peatlands, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 094014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3891, 2019.
Davies, M. G., Gray, A., Rein, G., and Legg, C. J.: Peat consumption and carbon loss due to smouldering wildfire in a temperature peatland, Forest Ecol. Manage., 308, 169–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.07.051, 2013.
Descals, A., Gaveau, D. L. A., Verger, A., Sheil, D., Naito, D., and Peñuelas, J.: Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic Circle linked to rising temperatures, Science, 378, 532–537, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn9768, 2022.
Frandsen, W. H.: Ignition probability of organic soils, Can. J. Forest Res., 27, 1471–1477, https://doi.org/10.1139/x97-106, 1997.
Frolking, S. and Roulet, N. T.: Holocene radiative forcing impact of northern peatland carbon accumulation and methane emissions, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 1079–1088, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01339.x, 2007.
Haas, O., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: Global environmental controls on wildfire burnt area, size and intensity, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 065004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6a69, 2022.
Hantson, S., Kelley, D. I., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Archibald, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Nieradzik, L., Rabin, S. S., Prentice, I. C., Sheehan, T., Sitch, S., Teckentrup, L., Voulgarakis, A., and Yue, C.: Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020.
Heil, A. and Goldammer, J.: Smoke-haze pollution: a review of the 1997 episode in Southeast Asia, Reg. Environ. Change, 2, 24–37, https://doi.org/10.1007/S101130100021, 2001.
Hokanson, K. J, Lukenbach, M. C, Devito, K. J., Kettridge, N, Petrone, R. M., and Waddington, J. M.: Groundwater connectivity controls peat burn severity in the boreal plains, Ecohydrol., 9, 574–584, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1657, 2016.
Hu, Y., Fernandez-Anez, N., Smith, T. E. L., and Rein, G.: Review of emissions from smouldering peat fires and their contribution to regional haze episodes, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 27, 293–312, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17084, 2018.
Hu, Y., Christensen, E., Restuccia, F., and Rein, G.: Transient gas and particle emissions from smouldering combustion of peat, P. Combust. Inst., 37, 4035–4042, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2018.06.008, 2019a.
Hu, Y., Christensen, E. G., Amin, H. M. F., Smith, T. E. L., and Rein, G.: Experimental study of moisture content effects on the transient gas and particle emissions from peat fires, Combust. Flame, 209, 408–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2019.07.046, 2019b.
Huang, S., Siegert, F., Goldammer, J. G., and Sukhinin, A. I.: Satellite-derived 2003 wildfires in southern Siberia and their potential influence on carbon sequestration, Int. J. Remote Sens., 30, 1479–1492, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802541549, 2009.
Huang, X. and Rein, G.: Downward spread of smouldering peat fire: the role of moisture, density, and oxygen supply, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 26, 907–918, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16198, 2017.
Huang, X. and Rein, G.: Upward-and-downward spread of smouldering peat fire, P. Combust. Inst., 37, 4025–4033, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2018.05.125, 2019.
Hugelius, G., Loisel, J., Chadburn, S., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M., MacDonald, G., Marushchak, M., Olefeldt, D., Packalen, M., Siewert, M. B., Treat, C., Turetsky, M. R., Voigt, C., and Yu, Z.: Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 20438–20446, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117, 2020a.
Hugelius, G., Loisel, J., Chadburn, S., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M., MacDonald, G., Marushchak, M., Olefeldt, D., Packalen, M., Siewert, M. B., Treat, C., Turetsky, M. R., Voigt, C., and Yu, Z.: Maps of northern peatland extent, depth, carbon storage and nitrogen storage, Dataset version 2, Bolin Centre Database [data set], https://doi.org/10.17043/hugelius-2020-peatland-2, 2020b.
Hurtt, G., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, G., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kinderman, G., Kinoshita, T., Goldewijk, K. K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climate Change, 109, 117–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2, 2011.
Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Lasslop, G., Forkel, M., Smith, A. J. P., Burton, C., Betts, R. A., van der Werf, G. R., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Santín, C., Kolden, C., Doerr, S. H., and Le Quéré, C.: Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2020RG000726, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726, 2022.
JULES collaboration: JULES code, Met Office Science Repository Service [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/jules, last access: 12 October 2023.
Kaiser, J. W., Heil, A., Andreae, M. O., Benedetti, A., Chubarova, N., Jones, L., Morcrette, J.-J., Razinger, M., Schultz, M. G., Suttie, M., and van der Werf, G. R.: Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power, Biogeosciences, 9, 527–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-527-2012, 2012.
Kajii, Y., Kato, S., Streets, D. G., Tsai, N.Y., Shvidenko, A., Nilsson, S., McCallum, I., Minko, N. P., Abushenko, N., Altyntsev, D., and Khodzer, T. V.: Boreal forest fires in Siberia in 1998: Estimation of area burned and emissions of pollutants by advanced very high resolution readiometer satellite data, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 174, 4745, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001078, 2002.
Kaplan, J. O. and Lau, K. H-K.: The WWLLN Global Lightning Climatology and timeseries (WGLC) v2022.0.0, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6007052, 2021.
Kettridge, N., Turetsky, M. R., Sherwood, J. H., Thompson, D. K., Miller, C. A., Benscoter, B. W., Flannigan, M. D., Wotton, B. M., and Waddington, J. M.: Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift, Sci. Rep.-UK, 5, 8063, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08063, 2015.
Kettridge, N., Lukenbach, M. C., Hokanson, K. J., Devito, K. J., Petrone, R. M., Mendoza, C. A., and Waddington, J. M.: Severe wildfire exposes remnant peat carbon stocks to increased post-fire drying, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 3727, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40033-7, 2019.
Konovalov, I. B., Beekmann, M., Kuznetsova, I. N., Yurova, A., and Zvyagintsev, A. M.: Atmospheric impacts of the 2010 Russian wildfires: integrating modelling and measurements of an extreme air pollution episode in the Moscow region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10031–10056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10031-2011, 2011.
Langner, A. and Siegert, F.: Spatiotemporal fire occurrence in Borneo over a period of 10 years, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 48–62, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01828.x, 2009.
Lasslop, G., Coppola, A. I., Voulgarakis, A., Yue, C., and Vereverbeke, S.: Influence of Fire on the Carbon Cycle and Climate, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 112–123, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00128-9, 2019.
Li, F., Levis, S., and Ward, D. S.: Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), Biogeosciences, 10, 2293–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013, 2013.
Loisel, J., Gallego-Sala, A. V, Amesbury, M. J., Magnan, G., Anshari, G., Beilman, D. W., Benavides, J. C., Blewett, J., Camill, P., Charman, D. J., Chawchai, S., Hedgpeth, A., Kleinen, T., Korhola, A., Large, D., Mansilla, C. A., Müller, J., van Bellen, S., West, J. B., Yu, Z., Bubier, J. L., Garneau, M., Moore, T., Sannel, A. B. K., Page, S., Väliranta, M., Bechtold, M., Brovkin, V., Cole, L. E. S., Chanton, J. P., Christensen, T. R., Davies, M. A., De Vleeschouwer, F., Finkelstein, S. A., Frolking, S., Gałka, M., Gandois, L., Girkin, N., Harris, L. I., Heinemeyer, A., Hoyt, A. M., Jones, M. C., Joos, F., Juutinen, S., Kaiser, K., Lacourse, T., Lamentowicz, M., Larmola, T., Leifeld, J., Lohila, A., Milner, A. M., Minkkinen, K., Moss, P., Naafs, B. D. A., Nichols, J., O'Donnell, J., Payne, R., Philben, M., Piilo, S., Quillet, A., Ratnayake, A. S., Roland, T. P., Sjögersten, S., Sonnentag, O., Swindles, G. T., Swinnen, W., Talbot, J., Treat, C., Valach, A. C., and Wu, J.: Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 70–77, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0, 2021.
Lukenbach, M. C., Hokanson, K. J., Moore, P. A., Devito, K. J., Kettridge, N, Thompson, D. K., Wotton, B. M., Petrone, R. M., and Waddington, J. M.: Hydrological controls on deep burning in a northern forested peatland, Hydrol. Process., 29, 4114–4124, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10440, 2015.
Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Gjelsvik, A. B., and Samset, B. H.: The influence of variability on fire weather conditions in high latitude regions under present and future global warming, Environ. Res. Commun., 5, 065016, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acdfad, 2023.
Mack, M. C., Bret-Harte, M. S., Hollingsworth, T. N., Jandt, R. R., Schuur, E. A. G., Shaver, G. R., and Verbylas, D. L.: Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire, Nature, 475, 489–492, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10283, 2011.
Mangeon, S., Voulgarakis, A., Gilham, R., Harper, A., Sitch, S., and Folberth, G.: INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016.
McCarty, J. L., Aalto, J., Paunu, V.-V., Arnold, S. R., Eckhardt, S., Klimont, Z., Fain, J. J., Evangeliou, N., Venäläinen, A., Tchebakova, N. M., Parfenova, E. I., Kupiainen, K., Soja, A. J., Huang, L., and Wilson, S.: Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century, Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021.
Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Berner, L. T., Bouskill, N. J., Torn, M. S., Iwahana, G., Breen, A. L., Myers-Smith, I. H., García Criado, M., and Liu, Y.: Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 053001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28b, 2021.
Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Jones, B. M., Romanovsky, V. E., and Boike, J.: Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic, Nat. Commun., 9, 5423, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07663-3, 2018.
Otón, G., Lizundia-Loiola, J., Pettinari, M. L., and Chuvieco, E.: Development of a consistent global long-term burned area product (1982–2018) based on AVHRR-LTDR data, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 103, 102473, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2021.102473, 2021.
Page, S. E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J. O., Boehm, H.-D. V., Jaya, A., and Limin, S.: The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997, Nature, 420, 61–65, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01131, 2002.
Perkins, O., Mateji, S., Erb, K., and Millington, J.: Towards a global behavioural model of anthropogenic fire: the spatiotemporal distribution of land-fire systems, Socio-Environ. Syst. Model, 4, 18130, https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18130, 2022.
Potter, S., Cooperdock, S., Veraverbeke, S., Walker, X., Mack, M. C., Goetz, S. J., Baltzer, J., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Burrell, A., Dieleman, C., French, N., Hantson, S., Hoy, E. E., Jenkins, L., Johnstone, J. F., Kane, E. S., Natali, S. M., Randerson, J. T., Turetsky, M. R., Whitman, E., Wiggins, E., and Rogers, B. M.: Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019, Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023.
Poulter, B., Christensen, N. L., and Halpin, P. N.: Carbon emissions from a temperate peat fire and its relevance to interannual variability of trace atmospheric greenhouse gases, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006455, 2006.
Purnomo, D. M. J., Bonner, M., Moafi, S., and Rein, G.: Using cellular automata to simulate field-scale flaming and smouldering wildfires in tropical peatlands, Proc. Combust. Inst., 38, 5119–5127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2020.08.052, 2020.
Qin, Y., Musa, D. N. S., Lin. S., Huang, X.: Deep peat fire persistently smouldering for weeks: a laboratory demonstration, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 32, 86–98, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22143, 2023.
Rein, G.: Smouldering Fires and Natural Fuels, in: Fire Phenomena and the Earth System: An Interdisciplinary Guide to Fire Science, edited by: Belcher, C., Wiley and Sons, 15–33, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118529539.ch2, 2013.
Rein, G.: Smouldering peat megafires: the largest fires on earth, in: Coal and peat fires: a global perspective, Volume 4: Peat – Geology, Combustion, and Case Studies, edited by: Stracher, G. B., Prakash, A., and Rein, G., Elsevier Science, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2010-0-68845-6, 2015.
Roteta, E., Bastarrika, A., Padilla, M., Storm, T., and Chuvieco, E.: Development of a Sentinel-2 burned area algorithm: Generation of a small fire database for sub-Saharan Africa, Remote Sens. Environ., 222, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.011, 2019.
Santoso, M. A., Huang, X., Prat-Guitart, N., Christensen, E., and Rein, G.: Smouldering fires and soil, in: Fire Effects on Soil Properies, edited by: Pereira, P., Mataix-Solera, J., Ubeda, X., Rein, G., and Ceradà, A., CSIRO Publishing, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.1071/9781486308149, 2019.
Scholten, R., C., Coumou, D., Luo, F., and Veraverbeke, S.: Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co-influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons, Science, 378, 1005–1009, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn4419, 2022.
Shaposhnikov, D., Revich, B., Bellander, T., Bedada, G. B., Bottai, M., Kharkova, T., Kvasha, E., Lezina, E., Lind, T., Semutnikova, E., and Pershagen, G.: Mortality Related to Air Pollution with the Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfire of 2010, Epidemiology, 25, 359–364, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000090, 2014.
Silver, B., Arnold, S., Emmons, L., Reddington, C., and Conibear, L.: Health impacts of wildfire smoke in the Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9394, 2023.
Sirin, A. and Medvedeva, M.: Remote sensing mapping of peat-fire-burnt areas: Identification among other wildfires, Remote Sens., 14, 194, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14010194, 2022.
Smith, C., Perkins, O., and Mistry, J.: Global decline in subsistence-oriented and smallholder fire use, Nat. Sustain., 5, 542–551, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00867-y, 2022.
Swindles, G. T., Morris, P. J., Mullan, D. J., Payne, R. J., Roland, T. P., Amesbury, M. J., Lamentowicz, M., Turner, T. E., Gallego-Sala, A., Sim, T., Barr, I. D., Blaauw, M., Blundell, A., Chambers, F. M., Charman, D. J., Feurdean, A., Galloway, J. M., Gałka, M., Green, S. M., Kajukało, K., Karofeld, E., Korhola, A., Lamentowicz, Ł., Langdon, P., Marcisz, K., Mauquoy, D., Mazei, Y. A., McKeown, M. M., Mitchell, E. A. D., Novenko, E., Plunkett, G., Roe, H. M., Schoning, K., Sillasoo, Ü., Tsyganov, A. N., van der Linden, M., Väliranta, M., and Warner, B.: Widespread drying of European peatlands in recent centuries, Nat. Geosci., 12, 922–928, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0462-z, 2019.
Talucci, A. C., Loranty, M. M., and Alexander, H. D.: Siberian taiga and tundra fire regimes from 2001–2020, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 025001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f07, 2022.
Tarnocai, C.: The Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Peatlands. Can. Water Resour. J., 34, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3404453, 2009.
Teakles, A. D., So, R., Ainslie, B., Nissen, R., Schiller, C., Vingarzan, R., McKendry, I., Macdonald, A. M., Jaffe, D. A., Bertram, A. K., Strawbridge, K. B., Leaitch, W. R., Hanna, S., Toom, D., Baik, J., and Huang, L.: Impacts of the July 2012 Siberian fire plume on air quality in the Pacific Northwest, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2593–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2593-2017, 2017.
Teckentrup, L., Harrison, S. P., Hantson, S., Heil, A., Melton, J. R., Forrest, M., Li, F., Yue, C., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Sitch, S., and Lasslop, G.: Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models, Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019.
Teixeira, J. C., Folberth, G. A., O'Connor, F. M., Unger, N., and Voulgarakis, A.: Coupling interactive fire with atmospheric composition and climate in the UK Earth System Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021.
Teixeira, J. C. M., Burton, C., Kelly, D. I., Folberth, G. A., O'Connor, F. M., Betts, R. A., and Voulgarakis, A.: Representing socio-economic factors in the INFERNO global fire model using the Human Development Index, Biogeosciences Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, in review, 2023.
Thomas, J. L., Polashenski, C. M., Soja, A. J., Marelle, L., Casey, K. A., Choi, H. D., Raut, J-C., Wiedinmyer, C., Emmons, L. K., Fast, J. D., Pelon, J., Law, K. S., Flanner, M. G., and Dibb, J. E.: Quantifying black carbon deposition over the Greenland ice sheet from forest fires in Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7965–7974, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073701, 2017.
Thompson, D. K., Simpson, B. N., Whitman, E., Barber, Q. E., and Parisien, M.-A.: Peatland Hydrological Dynamics as A Driver of Landscape Connectivity and Fire Activity in the Boreal Plain of Canada, Forests, 10, 534, https://doi.org/10.3390/f10070534, 2019.
Turetsky, M. R., Donahue, W. F., and Benscoter, B. W.: Experimental drying intensifies burning and carbon losses in a northern peatland, Nat. Commun., 2, 514, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1523, 2011a.
Turetsky, M. R., Kane, E. S., Harden, J. W., Ottmar, R. D, Manies, K. L., Hoy, E., and Kasischke, E. S.: Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands, Nat. Geosci., 4, 27–31, httsp://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1027, 2011b.
Turetsky, M. R., Benscoter, B., Page, S., Rein, G., van der Werf, G. R., and Watts, A.: Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss, Nat. Geosci., 8, 11–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2325, 2015.
UNEP: Global Peatlands Assessment – The State of the World's Peatlands: Evidence for action toward the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of peatlands. Main Report, Global Peatlands Initiative, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/41222, 2022.
Urbanski, S.: Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Emission factors, Forest Ecol. Manage., 217, 51–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.05.045, 2014.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707–11735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen, Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G. J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017.
van Wees, D., van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Rogers, B. M., Chen, Y., Veraverbeke, S., Giglio, L., and Morton, D. C.: Global biomass burning fuel consumption and emissions at 500 m spatial resolution based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022.
Veraverbeke, S., Rogers, B. M., Goulden, M. L., Jandt, R. R., Miller, C. E., Wiggins, E. B., and Randerson, J. T.: Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 529–534, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3329, 2017.
Voulgarakis, A. and Field, R. D.: Fire Influences on Atmospheric Composition, Air Quality and Climate, Curr. Pollut. Rep., 1, 70–81, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-015-0007-z, 2015.
Voulgarakis, A., Marlier, M. E., Faluvegi, G., Shindell, D. T., Tsigaridis, K., and Mangeon, S.: Interannual variability of tropospheric trace gases and aerosols: The role of biomass burning emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 12, 7157–7173, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022926, 2015.
Walker, X. J., Baltzer, J. L., Bourgeau-Chaves, L. L., Day, N. J., de Groot, W. J., Dieleman, C., Hoy, E. E., Johnstone, J. F., Kane, E. S., Parisien, M. A., Potter, S., Rogers, B. M., Turetsky, M. R., Veraverbeke, S., Whitman, E., and Mack, M. C.: ABoVE: Synthesis of Burned and Unburned Forest Site Data, AK and Canada, 1983–2016, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, ORNL DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1744, 2020.
Wendler, G., Conner, J., Moore, B., Shulski, M., and Stuefer, M.: Climatology of Alaskan wildfires with special emphasis on the extreme year of 2004, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 104, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0357-9, 2011.
Wiggins, E. B., Andrews, A., Sweeney, C., Miller, J. B., Miller, C. E., Veraverbeke, S., Commane, R., Wofsy, S., Henderson, J. M., and Randerson, J. T.: Boreal forest fire CO and CH4 emission factors derived from tower observations in Alaska during the extreme fire season of 2015, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8557–8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, 2021.
Wilkinson, S. L., Moore, P. A., Flannigan, M. D., Wotton, B. M., Waddington, J. M.: Did enhanced afforestation cause high severity peat burn in the Fort McMurray Horse River wildfire, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa136, 2018.
Wilkinson, S. L., Andersen, R., Moore, P. A., Davidson, S. J., Granath, G., and Waddington, J. M.: Wildfire and degradation accelerate northern peatland carbon release, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 456–461, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01657-w, 2023.
World Health Organisation: Air quality guidelines: global update 2005: particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, World Health Organisation, Copenhagen, ISBN 92 890 2192 6, 2006.
Xu, J., Morris, P. J., Liu, J., and Holden, J.: PEATMAP: Refining estimates of global peatland distribution based on a meta-analysis, Catena, 160, 134–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.09.010, 2018.
Xu, W., Scholten, R. C., Hessilt, T. D., Liu, Y., and Veraverbeke, S.: Overwintering fires rising in eastern Siberia, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 045005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac59aa, 2022.
Yang, J. and Chen, H.: Natural Downward Smouldering of Peat: Effects of Inorganic Content and Piled Bed Height, Fire Technol., 54, 1219–1247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-018-0737-8, 2018.
York, A., Bhatt, U. S., Gargulinski, E., Garbinski, Z., Jain, P., Soja, A., Thoman, R. L., and Ziel, R.: Wildland Fire in High Northern Latitudes, in: Arctic Report Card 2020, edited by: Thoman, R. L., Richter-Menge, J., and Druckenmiller, M. L., https://doi.org/10.25923/2gef-3964, 2020.
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., and Hunt, S. J.: Global peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010.
Zhang, H., Väliranta, M., Swindles, G. T., Aquino-López, M. A., Mullan, D., Tan, N., Amesbury, M., Babeshko, K. V., Bao, K., Bobrov, A., Chernyshov, V., Davies, M. A., Diaconu, A. C., Feurdean, A., Finkelstein, S. A., Garneau, M., Guo, Z., Jones, M. C., Kay, M., Klein, E. S., Lamentowicz, M., Magnan, G., Marcisz, K., Mazei, N., Mazei, Y., Payne, R., Pelletier, N., Piilo, S. R., Pratte, S., Roland, T., Saldaev, D., Shotyk, W., Sim, T. G., Sloan, T. J., Słowiński, M., Talbot, J., Taylor, L., Tsyganov, A. N., Wetterich, S., Xing, W., and Zhao, Y.: Recent climate change has driven divergent hydrological shifts in high-latitude peatlands, Nat. Commun., 13, 4959, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32711-4, 2022.
Zhao, B. and Zhuang, Q.: Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis, Biogeosciences, 20, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023, 2023.
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by...
