Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
11 Apr 2024
Methods for assessment of models |
| 11 Apr 2024
| 11 Apr 2024
A machine learning approach for evaluating Southern Ocean cloud radiative biases in a global atmosphere model
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Australia
Marc D. Mallet
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Alain Protat
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Matthew T. Woodhouse
Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Simon P. Alexander
Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Kalli Furtado
Met Office, Exeter, UK
now at: Centre for Climate Research, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore
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Ruhi S. Humphries, Melita D. Keywood, Sean Gribben, Ian M. McRobert, Jason P. Ward, Paul Selleck, Sally Taylor, James Harnwell, Connor Flynn, Gourihar R. Kulkarni, Gerald G. Mace, Alain Protat, Simon P. Alexander, and Greg McFarquhar
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Ashok K. Luhar, Ian E. Galbally, Matthew T. Woodhouse, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7053–7082, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7053-2021, 2021
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Lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) greatly influence tropospheric photochemistry. The most common parameterisation of lightning flash rate used to calculate LNOx in global composition models underestimates measurements over the ocean by a factor of 20–25. We formulate and validate an alternative parameterisation to remedy this problem. The new scheme causes an increase in the ozone burden by 8.5 % and the hydroxyl radical by 13 %, and these have implications for climate and air quality.
Sonya L. Fiddes, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Todd P. Lane, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5883–5903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5883-2021, 2021
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Coral reefs are known to produce the aerosol precursor dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Currently, this source of coral DMS is unaccounted for in climate modelling, and the impact of coral reef extinction on aerosol and climate is unknown. In this study, we address this problem using a coupled chemistry–climate model for the first time. We find that coral reefs make a minimal contribution to the aerosol population and are unlikely to play a role in climate modulation.
Robert Jackson, Scott Collis, Valentin Louf, Alain Protat, Die Wang, Scott Giangrande, Elizabeth J. Thompson, Brenda Dolan, and Scott W. Powell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-53-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-53-2021, 2021
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About 4 years of 2D video disdrometer data in Darwin are used to develop and validate rainfall retrievals for tropical convection in C- and X-band radars in Darwin. Using blended techniques previously used for Colorado and Manus and Gan islands, with modified coefficients in each estimator, provided the most optimal results. Using multiple radar observables to develop a rainfall retrieval provided a greater advantage than using a single observable, including using specific attenuation.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Alain Protat and Ian McRobert
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3609–3620, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3609-2020, 2020
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Three-dimensional (3D) wind motions play a major role in driving the life cycle of clouds. In this pilot study we have developed a technique to measure the 3D winds in clouds, using a shipborne Doppler cloud radar on a stabilized platform. The stabilized platform is driven to point in a series of predefined directions to collect the required measurements. Comparisons with radiosondes demonstrate that accurate 1 min resolution 3D wind motions can be obtained from this instrumental setup.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Rebecca L. Jackson, Albert J. Gabric, Roger Cropp, and Matthew T. Woodhouse
Biogeosciences, 17, 2181–2204, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2181-2020, 2020
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Coral reefs are a strong source of atmospheric sulfur through stress-induced emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS). This biogenic sulfur can influence aerosol and cloud properties and, consequently, the radiative balance over the ocean. DMS emissions may therefore help to mitigate coral physiological stress via increased low-level cloud cover and reduced sea surface temperature. The importance of DMS in coral physiology and climate is reviewed and the implications for coral bleaching are discussed.
Adrien Guyot, Jayaram Pudashine, Alain Protat, Remko Uijlenhoet, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Alan Seed, and Jeffrey P. Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4737–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4737-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4737-2019, 2019
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We characterised for the first time the rainfall microphysics for Southern Hemisphere temperate latitudes. Co-located instruments were deployed to provide information on the sampling effect and spatio-temporal variabilities at micro scales. Substantial differences were found across the instruments, increasing with increasing values of the rain rate. Specific relations for reflectivity–rainfall are presented together with related uncertainties for drizzle and stratiform and convective rainfall.
Ingo Wohltmann, Ralph Lehmann, Georg A. Gottwald, Karsten Peters, Alain Protat, Valentin Louf, Christopher Williams, Wuhu Feng, and Markus Rex
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4387–4407, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4387-2019, 2019
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We present a trajectory-based model for simulating the transport of air parcels by convection. Our model extends the approach of existing models by explicitly simulating vertical updraft velocities inside the clouds and the time that an air parcel spends inside the convective event.
Robert C. Jackson, Scott M. Collis, Valentin Louf, Alain Protat, and Leon Majewski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17687–17704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17687-2018, 2018
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This paper looks at a 17 year database of echo top heights of thunderstorms in Darwin retrieved by CPOL. We find that the echo top heights are generally bimodal, corresponding to cumulus congestus and deep convection, and show a greater bimodality during an inactive MJO. Furthermore, we find that convective cell areas are larger in break conditions compared to monsoon conditions, but only during MJO-inactive conditions.
Sonya L. Fiddes, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Zebedee Nicholls, Todd P. Lane, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10177–10198, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10177-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10177-2018, 2018
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The role of natural aerosol in the climate system is uncertain. A key contributor to marine aerosol is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), released by phytoplankton in the oceans. We study the effect of DMS on clouds and rain using a climate model with a detailed aerosol scheme. We show that DMS acts to reduce rainfall in cloud deck regions, leading to longer lived clouds and a large impact on solar energy reaching the surface. Further study of these areas will improve future climate projections.
Ashok K. Luhar, Matthew T. Woodhouse, and Ian E. Galbally
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4329–4348, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4329-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4329-2018, 2018
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Dry deposition at the Earth’s surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. A new parameterisation for ozone dry deposition to the ocean that accounts for relevant chemical and physical processes is developed and tested. It results in an ocean deposition loss that is only about a third of the current model estimates and corresponds to an increase of 5 % in the tropospheric ozone burden. This is important for tropospheric ozone budget, associated radiative forcing, and ozone mixing ratios.
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
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Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
Jesse W. Greenslade, Simon P. Alexander, Robyn Schofield, Jenny A. Fisher, and Andrew K. Klekociuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10269–10290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10269-2017, 2017
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An analysis of data from ozonesondes released at three southern oceanic sites shows the impact of stratospheric ozone in this region. Using a novel method of transport classification, this work estimates the seasonality and quantity of stratospherically sourced ozone. We find that ozone is transported most frequently in summer due to regional-scale low-pressure weather systems. We also estimate a stratospheric ozone source of 2.0–3.3 Tg/year over three Southern Ocean regions.
McKenna W. Stanford, Adam Varble, Ed Zipser, J. Walter Strapp, Delphine Leroy, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Rodney Potts, and Alain Protat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9599–9621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9599-2017, 2017
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Radar reflectivity is a valuable observational tool used to guide numerical weather model improvement. Biases in simulated reflectivity help identify potential errors in physical process and property representation in models. This study uniquely compares simulated and observed tropical convective systems to establish that a commonly documented high bias in radar reflectivity values at least partially results from the production of simulated ice particle sizes that are larger than observed.
Ashok K. Luhar, Ian E. Galbally, Matthew T. Woodhouse, and Marcus Thatcher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3749–3767, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3749-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3749-2017, 2017
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Dry deposition of tropospheric ozone relates to its destruction at the Earth’s surface. An improved model scheme for such deposition to the ocean is formulated backed up by field data. It results in the oceanic dry deposition of ozone to be 12 % of the global total, which is much lower than the current model estimate of about 30 %. This result has implications for modelling global tropospheric ozone budget and its radiative forcing, and ozone mixing ratios, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.
E. W. Butt, A. Rap, A. Schmidt, C. E. Scott, K. J. Pringle, C. L. Reddington, N. A. D. Richards, M. T. Woodhouse, J. Ramirez-Villegas, H. Yang, V. Vakkari, E. A. Stone, M. Rupakheti, P. S. Praveen, P. G. van Zyl, J. P. Beukes, M. Josipovic, E. J. S. Mitchell, S. M. Sallu, P. M. Forster, and D. V. Spracklen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 873–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-873-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-873-2016, 2016
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We estimate the impact of residential emissions (cooking and heating) on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate. We find large contributions to annual mean ambient PM2.5 in residential sources regions resulting in significant but uncertain global premature mortality when key uncertainties in emission flux are considered. We show that residential emissions exert an uncertain global radiative effect and suggest more work is needed to characterise residential emissions climate importance.
S. T. Turnock, D. V. Spracklen, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, P. M. Forster, J. Haywood, C. E. Johnson, M. Dalvi, N. Bellouin, and A. Sanchez-Lorenzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9477–9500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, 2015
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We evaluate HadGEM3-UKCA over Europe for the period 1960-2009 against observations of aerosol mass and number, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface solar radiation (SSR). The model underestimates aerosol mass and number but is less biased if compared to AOD and SSR. Observed trends in aerosols are well simulated by the model and necessary for reproducing the observed increase in SSR since 1990. European all-sky top of atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing increased by > 3 Wm-2 from 1970 to 2009.
S. P. Alexander, D. J. Murphy, and A. R. Klekociuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3121–3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3121-2013, 2013
M. T. Woodhouse, G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2723–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model
Representing effects of surface heterogeneity in a multi-plume eddy diffusivity mass flux boundary layer parameterization
Can TROPOMI NO2 satellite data be used to track the drop in and resurgence of NOx emissions in Germany between 2019–2021 using the multi-source plume method (MSPM)?
A spatiotemporally separated framework for reconstructing the sources of atmospheric radionuclide releases
A parameterization scheme for the floating wind farm in a coupled atmosphere–wave model (COAWST v3.7)
RoadSurf 1.1: open-source road weather model library
Calibrating and validating the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model: case studies in France and the United States
The ddeq Python library for point source quantification from remote sensing images (version 1.0)
Incorporating Oxygen Isotopes of Oxidized Reactive Nitrogen in the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2 (ICOIN-RACM2)
A general comprehensive evaluation method for cross-scale precipitation forecasts
Implementation of a Simple Actuator Disk for Large-Eddy Simulation in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-SADLES v1.2) for wind turbine wake simulation
WRF-PDAF v1.0: implementation and application of an online localized ensemble data assimilation framework
Implementation and evaluation of diabatic advection in the Lagrangian transport model MPTRAC 2.6
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2_cool_fort-1.0)
Development of a multiphase chemical mechanism to improve secondary organic aerosol formation in CAABA/MECCA (version 4.7.0)
Application of regional meteorology and air quality models based on the microprocessor without interlocked piped stages (MIPS) and LoongArch CPU platforms
Investigating ground-level ozone pollution in semi-arid and arid regions of Arizona using WRF-Chem v4.4 modeling
An objective identification technique for potential vorticity structures associated with African easterly waves
Importance of microphysical settings for climate forcing by stratospheric SO2 injections as modeled by SOCOL-AERv2
Assessment of surface ozone products from downscaled CAMS reanalysis and CAMS daily forecast using urban air quality monitoring stations in Iran
Open boundary conditions for atmospheric large-eddy simulations and their implementation in DALES4.4
Efficient and stable coupling of the SuperdropNet deep-learning-based cloud microphysics (v0.1.0) with the ICON climate and weather model (v2.6.5)
Three-dimensional variational assimilation with a multivariate background error covariance for the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI-MPAS 2.0.0-beta)
FUME 2.0 – Flexible Universal processor for Modeling Emissions
DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties
Evaluation of multi-season convection-permitting atmosphere – mixed-layer ocean simulations of the Maritime Continent
Investigating the impact of coupling HARMONIE-WINS50 (cy43) meteorology to LOTOS-EUROS (v2.2.002) on a simulation of NO2 concentrations over the Netherlands
Balloon drift estimation and improved position estimates for radiosondes
Emission ensemble approach to improve the development of multi-scale emission inventories
What is the relative impact of nudging and online coupling on meteorological variables, pollutant concentrations and aerosol optical properties?
Diagnosing drivers of PM2.5 simulation biases in China from meteorology, chemical composition, and emission sources using an efficient machine learning method
Validation and analysis of the Polair3D v1.11 chemical transport model over Quebec
Assimilation of GNSS tropospheric gradients into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.4.1
Identifying atmospheric rivers and their poleward latent heat transport with generalizable neural networks: ARCNNv1
Assessing acetone for the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model
Bergen metrics: composite error metrics for assessing performance of climate models using EURO-CORDEX simulations
A dynamic approach to three-dimensional radiative transfer in subkilometer-scale numerical weather prediction models: the dynamic TenStream solver v1.0
Evaluation and development of surface layer scheme representation of temperature inversions over boreal forests in Arctic wintertime conditions
Modelling wind farm effects in HARMONIE–AROME (cycle 43.2.2) – Part 1: Implementation and evaluation
Analytical and adaptable initial conditions for dry and moist baroclinic waves in the global hydrostatic model OpenIFS (CY43R3)
Challenges of constructing and selecting the “perfect” boundary conditions for the large-eddy simulation model PALM
Decision Support System version 1.0 (DSS v1.0) for air quality management in Delhi, India
How non-equilibrium aerosol chemistry impacts particle acidity: the GMXe AERosol CHEMistry (GMXe–AERCHEM, v1.0) sub-submodel of MESSy
A grid model for vertical correction of precipitable water vapor over the Chinese mainland and surrounding areas using random forest
MEXPLORER 1.0.0 – a mechanism explorer for analysis and visualization of chemical reaction pathways based on graph theory
Evaluating CHASER V4.0 global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations using satellite, aircraft, and ground-based remote sensing observations
Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting
An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3)
cloudbandPy 1.0: an automated algorithm for the detection of tropical–extratropical cloud bands
PyRTlib: an educational Python-based library for non-scattering atmospheric microwave radiative transfer computations
Alberto Martilli, Negin Nazarian, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Jacob Lachapelle, Jiachen Lu, Esther Rivas, Alejandro Rodriguez-Sanchez, Beatriz Sanchez, and José Luis Santiago
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5023–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, 2024
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Here, we present a model that quantifies the thermal stress and its microscale variability at a city scale with a mesoscale model. This tool can have multiple applications, from early warnings of extreme heat to the vulnerable population to the evaluation of the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies. It is the first model that includes information on microscale variability in a mesoscale model, something that is essential for fully evaluating heat stress.
Nathan P. Arnold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5041–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, 2024
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Earth system models often represent the land surface at smaller scales than the atmosphere, but surface–atmosphere coupling uses only aggregated surface properties. This study presents a method to allow heterogeneous surface properties to modify boundary layer updrafts. The method is tested in single column experiments. Updraft properties are found to reasonably covary with surface conditions, and simulated boundary layer variability is enhanced over more heterogeneous land surfaces.
Enrico Dammers, Janot Tokaya, Christian Mielke, Kevin Hausmann, Debora Griffin, Chris McLinden, Henk Eskes, and Renske Timmermans
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4983–5007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, 2024
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Nitrogen dioxide (NOx) is produced by sources such as industry and traffic and is directly linked to negative impacts on health and the environment. The current construction of emission inventories to keep track of NOx emissions is slow and time-consuming. Satellite measurements provide a way to quickly and independently estimate emissions. In this study, we apply a consistent methodology to derive NOx emissions over Germany and illustrate the value of having such a method for fast projections.
Yuhan Xu, Sheng Fang, Xinwen Dong, and Shuhan Zhuang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4961–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, 2024
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Recent atmospheric radionuclide leakages from unknown sources have posed a new challenge in nuclear emergency assessment. Reconstruction via environmental observations is the only feasible way to identify sources, but simultaneous reconstruction of the source location and release rate yields high uncertainties. We propose a spatiotemporally separated reconstruction strategy that avoids these uncertainties and outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to accuracy and uncertainty ranges.
Shaokun Deng, Shengmu Yang, Shengli Chen, Daoyi Chen, Xuefeng Yang, and Shanshan Cui
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4891–4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, 2024
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Global offshore wind power development is moving from offshore to deeper waters, where floating offshore wind turbines have an advantage over bottom-fixed turbines. However, current wind farm parameterization schemes in mesoscale models are not applicable to floating turbines. We propose a floating wind farm parameterization scheme that accounts for the attenuation of the significant wave height by floating turbines. The results indicate that it has a significant effect on the power output.
Virve Eveliina Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4837–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, 2024
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RoadSurf is an open-source library that contains functions from the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s road weather model. The evaluation of the library shows that it is well suited for making road surface temperature forecasts. The evaluation was done by making forecasts for about 400 road weather stations in Finland with the library. Accurate forecasts help road authorities perform salting and plowing operations at the right time and keep roads safe for drivers.
Perrine Hamel, Martí Bosch, Léa Tardieu, Aude Lemonsu, Cécile de Munck, Chris Nootenboom, Vincent Viguié, Eric Lonsdorf, James A. Douglass, and Richard P. Sharp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4755–4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, 2024
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The InVEST Urban Cooling model estimates the cooling effect of vegetation in cities. We further developed an algorithm to facilitate model calibration and evaluation. Applying the algorithm to case studies in France and in the United States, we found that nighttime air temperature estimates compare well with reference datasets. Estimated change in temperature from a land cover scenario compares well with an alternative model estimate, supporting the use of the model for urban planning decisions.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
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We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Wendell W. Walters, Masayuki Takeuchi, Nga L. Ng, and Meredith G. Hastings
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, 2024
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The study introduces a novel chemical mechanism for explicitly tracking oxygen isotope transfer in oxidized reactive nitrogen and odd oxygen using the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2. This model enhances our ability to simulate and compare oxygen isotope compositions of reactive nitrogen, revealing insights into oxidation chemistry. The approach shows promise for improving atmospheric chemistry models and tropospheric oxidation capacity predictions.
Bing Zhang, Mingjian Zeng, Anning Huang, Zhengkun Qin, Couhua Liu, Wenru Shi, Xin Li, Kefeng Zhu, Chunlei Gu, and Jialing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4579–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, 2024
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By directly analyzing the proximity of precipitation forecasts and observations, a precipitation accuracy score (PAS) method was constructed. This method does not utilize a traditional contingency-table-based classification verification; however, it can replace the threat score (TS), equitable threat score (ETS), and other skill score methods, and it can be used to calculate the accuracy of numerical models or quantitative precipitation forecasts.
Hai Bui, Mostafa Bakhoday-Paskyabi, and Mohammadreza Mohammadpour-Penchah
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4447–4465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, 2024
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We developed a new wind turbine wake model, the Simple Actuator Disc for Large Eddy Simulation (SADLES), integrated with the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-SADLES accurately simulates wind turbine wakes at resolutions of a few dozen meters, aligning well with idealized simulations and observational measurements. This makes WRF-SADLES a promising tool for wind energy research, offering a balance between accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of implementation.
Changliang Shao and Lars Nerger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4433–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces and evaluates WRF-PDAF, a fully online-coupled ensemble data assimilation (DA) system. A key advantage of the WRF-PDAF configuration is its ability to concurrently integrate all ensemble states, eliminating the need for time-consuming distribution and collection of ensembles during the coupling communication. The extra time required for DA amounts to only 20.6 % per cycle. Twin experiment results underscore the effectiveness of the WRF-PDAF system.
Jan Clemens, Lars Hoffmann, Bärbel Vogel, Sabine Grießbach, and Nicole Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4467–4493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, 2024
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Lagrangian transport models simulate the transport of air masses in the atmosphere. For example, one model (CLaMS) is well suited to calculating transport as it uses a special coordinate system and special vertical wind. However, it only runs inefficiently on modern supercomputers. Hence, we have implemented the benefits of CLaMS into a new model (MPTRAC), which is already highly efficient on modern supercomputers. Finally, in extensive tests, we showed that CLaMS and MPTRAC agree very well.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
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The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Felix Wieser, Rolf Sander, Changmin Cho, Hendrik Fuchs, Thorsten Hohaus, Anna Novelli, Ralf Tillmann, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4311–4330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, 2024
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The chemistry scheme of the atmospheric box model CAABA/MECCA is expanded to achieve an improved aerosol formation from emitted organic compounds. In addition to newly added reactions, temperature-dependent partitioning of all new species between the gas and aqueous phases is estimated and included in the pre-existing scheme. Sensitivity runs show an overestimation of key compounds from isoprene, which can be explained by a lack of aqueous-phase degradation reactions and box model limitations.
Zehua Bai, Qizhong Wu, Kai Cao, Yiming Sun, and Huaqiong Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4383–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, 2024
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There is relatively limited research on the application of scientific computing on RISC CPU platforms. The MIPS architecture CPUs, a type of RISC CPUs, have distinct advantages in energy efficiency and scalability. The air quality modeling system can run stably on the MIPS and LoongArch platforms, and the experiment results verify the stability of scientific computing on the platforms. The work provides a technical foundation for the scientific application based on MIPS and LoongArch.
Yafang Guo, Chayan Roychoudhury, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Rajesh Kumar, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4331–4353, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, 2024
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This research focuses on surface ozone (O3) pollution in Arizona, a historically air-quality-challenged arid and semi-arid region in the US. The unique characteristics of this kind of region, e.g., intense heat, minimal moisture, and persistent desert shrubs, play a vital role in comprehending O3 exceedances. Using the WRF-Chem model, we analyzed O3 levels in the pre-monsoon month, revealing the model's skill in capturing diurnal and MDA8 O3 levels.
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, 2024
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This study presents a method for identifying and tracking 3-D potential vorticity structures within African easterly waves (AEWs). Each identified structure is characterized by descriptors, including its 3-D position and orientation, which have been validated through composite comparisons. A trough-centric perspective on the descriptors reveals the evolution and distinct characteristics of AEWs. These descriptors serve as valuable statistical inputs for the study of AEW-related phenomena.
Sandro Vattioni, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Elia Wunderlin, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4181–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, 2024
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We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol size distributions in the presence of strong SO2 injections for climate interventions or after volcanic eruptions to the call sequence and frequency of the routines for nucleation and condensation in sectional aerosol models with operator splitting. Using the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, we show that the radiative and chemical outputs are sensitive to these settings at high H2SO4 supersaturations and how to obtain reliable results.
Najmeh Kaffashzadeh and Abbas-Ali Aliakbari Bidokhti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4155–4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, 2024
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This paper assesses the capability of two state-of-the-art global datasets in simulating surface ozone over Iran using a new methodology. It is found that the global model data need to be downscaled for regulatory purposes or policy applications at local scales. The method can be useful not only for the evaluation but also for the prediction of other chemical species, such as aerosols.
Franciscus Liqui Lung, Christian Jakob, A. Pier Siebesma, and Fredrik Jansson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4053–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, 2024
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Traditionally, high-resolution atmospheric models employ periodic boundary conditions, which limit simulations to domains without horizontal variations. In this research open boundary conditions are developed to replace the periodic boundary conditions. The implementation is tested in a controlled setup, and the results show minimal disturbances. Using these boundary conditions, high-resolution models can be forced by a coarser model to study atmospheric phenomena in realistic background states.
Caroline Arnold, Shivani Sharma, Tobias Weigel, and David S. Greenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4017–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, 2024
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In atmospheric models, rain formation is simplified to be computationally efficient. We trained a machine learning model, SuperdropNet, to emulate warm-rain formation based on super-droplet simulations. Here, we couple SuperdropNet with an atmospheric model in a warm-bubble experiment and find that the coupled simulation runs stable and produces reasonable results, making SuperdropNet a viable ML proxy for droplet simulations. We also present a comprehensive benchmark for coupling architectures.
Byoung-Joo Jung, Benjamin Ménétrier, Chris Snyder, Zhiquan Liu, Jonathan J. Guerrette, Junmei Ban, Ivette Hernández Baños, Yonggang G. Yu, and William C. Skamarock
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3879–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, 2024
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We describe the multivariate static background error covariance (B) for the JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var data assimilation system. With tuned B parameters, the multivariate B gives physically balanced analysis increment fields in the single-observation test framework. In the month-long cycling experiment with a global 60 km mesh, 3D-Var with static B performs stably. Due to its simple workflow and minimal computational requirements, JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var can be useful for the research community.
Michal Belda, Nina Benešová, Jaroslav Resler, Peter Huszár, Ondřej Vlček, Pavel Krč, Jan Karlický, Pavel Juruš, and Kryštof Eben
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3867–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, 2024
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For modeling atmospheric chemistry, it is necessary to provide data on emissions of pollutants. These can come from various sources and in various forms, and preprocessing of the data to be ingestible by chemistry models can be quite challenging. We developed the FUME processor to use a database layer that internally transforms all input data into a rigid structure, facilitating further processing to allow for emission processing from the continental to the street scale.
Bent Harnist, Seppo Pulkkinen, and Terhi Mäkinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3839–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, 2024
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Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (local forecasting for 0–6 h) is crucial for reducing damage from events like flash floods. For this goal, we propose the DEUCE neural-network-based model which uses data and model uncertainties to generate an ensemble of potential precipitation development scenarios for the next hour. Trained and evaluated with Finnish precipitation composites, DEUCE was found to produce more skillful and reliable nowcasts than established models.
Emma Howard, Steven Woolnough, Nicholas Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, Cathryn E. Birch, and Adrian J. Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3815–3837, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean simulation setup that will be used to study weather processes in Southeast Asia. The set-up has been used to compare high-resolution simulations, which are able to partially resolve storms, to coarser simulations, which cannot. We compare the model performance at representing variability of rainfall and sea surface temperatures across length scales between the coarse and fine models.
Andrés Yarce Botero, Michiel van Weele, Arjo Segers, Pier Siebesma, and Henk Eskes
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3765–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, 2024
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HARMONIE WINS50 reanalysis data with 0.025° × 0.025° resolution from 2019 to 2021 were coupled with the LOTOS-EUROS Chemical Transport Model. HARMONIE and ECMWF meteorology configurations against Cabauw observations (52.0° N, 4.9° W) were evaluated as simulated NO2 concentrations with ground-level sensors. Differences in crucial meteorological input parameters (boundary layer height, vertical diffusion coefficient) between the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models were analysed.
Ulrich Voggenberger, Leopold Haimberger, Federico Ambrogi, and Paul Poli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3783–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a method for calculating balloon drift from historical radiosonde ascent data. The drift can reach distances of several hundred kilometres and is often neglected. Verification shows the beneficial impact of the more accurate balloon position on model assimilation. The method is not limited to radiosondes but would also work for dropsondes, ozonesondes, or any other in situ sonde carried by the wind in the pre-GNSS era, provided the necessary information is available.
Philippe Thunis, Jeroen Kuenen, Enrico Pisoni, Bertrand Bessagnet, Manjola Banja, Lech Gawuc, Karol Szymankiewicz, Diego Guizardi, Monica Crippa, Susana Lopez-Aparicio, Marc Guevara, Alexander De Meij, Sabine Schindlbacher, and Alain Clappier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3631–3643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3631-2024, 2024
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An ensemble emission inventory is created with the aim of monitoring the status and progress made with the development of EU-wide inventories. This emission ensemble serves as a common benchmark for the screening and allows for the comparison of more than two inventories at a time. Because the emission “truth” is unknown, the approach does not tell which inventory is the closest to reality, but it identifies inconsistencies that require special attention.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3645–3665, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3645-2024, 2024
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This study is about the modelling of the atmospheric composition in Europe during the summer of 2022, when massive wildfires were observed. It is a sensitivity study dedicated to the relative impacts of two modelling processes that are able to modify the meteorology used for the calculation of the atmospheric chemistry and transport of pollutants.
Shuai Wang, Mengyuan Zhang, Yueqi Gao, Peng Wang, Qingyan Fu, and Hongliang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3617–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3617-2024, 2024
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Numerical models are widely used in air pollution modeling but suffer from significant biases. The machine learning model designed in this study shows high efficiency in identifying such biases. Meteorology (relative humidity and cloud cover), chemical composition (secondary organic components and dust aerosols), and emission sources (residential activities) are diagnosed as the main drivers of bias in modeling PM2.5, a typical air pollutant. The results will help to improve numerical models.
Shoma Yamanouchi, Shayamilla Mahagammulla Gamage, Sara Torbatian, Jad Zalzal, Laura Minet, Audrey Smargiassi, Ying Liu, Ling Liu, Forood Azargoshasbi, Jinwoong Kim, Youngseob Kim, Daniel Yazgi, and Marianne Hatzopoulou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3579–3597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3579-2024, 2024
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Air pollution is a major health hazard, and chemical transport models (CTMs) are valuable tools that aid in our understanding of the risks of air pollution at both local and regional scales. In this study, the Polair3D CTM of the Polyphemus air quality modeling platform was set up over Quebec, Canada, to assess the model’s capability in predicting key air pollutant species over the region, at seasonal temporal scales and at regional spatial scales.
Rohith Thundathil, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3599–3616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3599-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3599-2024, 2024
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Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides moisture observations through its densely distributed ground station network. In this research, we assimilate a new type of observation called tropospheric gradient observations, which has never been incorporated into a weather model. We develop a forward operator for gradient-based observations and conduct an assimilation impact study. The study shows significant improvements in the model's humidity fields.
Ankur Mahesh, Travis A. O'Brien, Burlen Loring, Abdelrahman Elbashandy, William Boos, and William D. Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3533-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of US dollars in flood damage. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect ARs with an estimate of the uncertainty. We present a framework to generalize these CNNs to a variety of datasets of past, present, and future climate. Using a simplified simulation of the Earth's atmosphere, we validate the CNNs. We explore the role of ARs in maintaining energy balance in the Earth system.
Alexandra Rivera, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Drew Shindell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3487–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, 2024
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This paper describes and evaluates an improvement to the representation of acetone in the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model. We simulate acetone's concentration and transport across the atmosphere as well as its dependence on chemistry, the ocean, and various global emissions. Comparisons of our model’s estimates to past modeling studies and field measurements have shown encouraging results. Ultimately, this paper contributes to a broader understanding of acetone's role in the atmosphere.
Alok K. Samantaray, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Carla A. Vivacqua
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3321–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3321-2024, 2024
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Any interpretation of climate model data requires a comprehensive evaluation of the model performance. Numerous error metrics exist for this purpose, and each focuses on a specific aspect of the relationship between reference and model data. Thus, a comprehensive evaluation demands the use of multiple error metrics. However, this can lead to confusion. We propose a clustering technique to reduce the number of error metrics needed and a composite error metric to simplify the interpretation.
Richard Maier, Fabian Jakub, Claudia Emde, Mihail Manev, Aiko Voigt, and Bernhard Mayer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3357–3383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3357-2024, 2024
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Based on the TenStream solver, we present a new method to accelerate 3D radiative transfer towards the speed of currently used 1D solvers. Using a shallow-cumulus-cloud time series, we evaluate the performance of this new solver in terms of both speed and accuracy. Compared to a 3D benchmark simulation, we show that our new solver is able to determine much more accurate irradiances and heating rates than a 1D δ-Eddington solver, even when operated with a similar computational demand.
Julia Maillard, Jean-Christophe Raut, and François Ravetta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3303–3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3303-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric models struggle to reproduce the strong temperature inversions in the vicinity of the surface over forested areas in the Arctic winter. In this paper, we develop modified simplified versions of surface layer schemes widely used by the community. Our modifications are used to correct the fact that original schemes place strong limits on the turbulent collapse, leading to a lower surface temperature gradient at low wind speeds. Modified versions show a better performance.
Jana Fischereit, Henrik Vedel, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Natalie E. Theeuwes, Gregor Giebel, and Eigil Kaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2855–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, 2024
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Wind farms impact local wind and turbulence. To incorporate these effects in weather forecasting, the explicit wake parameterization (EWP) is added to the forecasting model HARMONIE–AROME. We evaluate EWP using flight data above and downstream of wind farms, comparing it with an alternative wind farm parameterization and another weather model. Results affirm the correct implementation of EWP, emphasizing the necessity of accounting for wind farm effects in accurate weather forecasting.
Clément Bouvier, Daan van den Broek, Madeleine Ekblom, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2961–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, 2024
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An analytical initial background state has been developed for moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet and implemented into OpenIFS. Seven parameters can be controlled, which are used to generate the background states and the development of baroclinic waves. The meteorological and numerical stability has been assessed. Resulting baroclinic waves have proven to be realistic and sensitive to the jet's width.
Jelena Radović, Michal Belda, Jaroslav Resler, Kryštof Eben, Martin Bureš, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Hynek Řezníček, and Vladimír Fuka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2901–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2901-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2901-2024, 2024
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Boundary conditions are of crucial importance for numerical model (e.g., PALM) validation studies and have a large influence on the model results, especially when studying the atmosphere of real, complex, and densely built urban environments. Our experiments with different driving conditions for the large-eddy simulation model PALM show its strong dependency on boundary conditions, which is important for the proper separation of errors coming from the boundary conditions and the model itself.
Gaurav Govardhan, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sumit Sharma, Preeti Gunwani, Chinmay Jena, Prafull Yadav, Shubhangi Ingle, Sreyashi Debnath, Pooja Pawar, Prodip Acharja, Rajmal Jat, Gayatry Kalita, Rupal Ambulkar, Santosh Kulkarni, Akshara Kaginalkar, Vijay K. Soni, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, and Madhavan Rajeevan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2617–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, 2024
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A newly developed air quality forecasting framework, Decision Support System (DSS), for air quality management in Delhi, India, provides source attribution with numerous emission reduction scenarios besides forecasts. DSS shows that during post-monsoon and winter seasons, Delhi and its neighboring districts contribute to 30 %–40 % each to pollution in Delhi. On average, a 40 % reduction in the emissions in Delhi and the surrounding districts would result in a 24 % reduction in Delhi's pollution.
Simon Rosanka, Holger Tost, Rolf Sander, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2597–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, 2024
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The capabilities of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) are extended to account for non-equilibrium aqueous-phase chemistry in the representation of deliquescent aerosols. When applying the new development in a global simulation, we find that MESSy's bias in modelling routinely observed reduced inorganic aerosol mass concentrations, especially in the United States. Furthermore, the representation of fine-aerosol pH is particularly improved in the marine boundary layer.
Junyu Li, Yuxin Wang, Lilong Liu, Yibin Yao, Liangke Huang, and Feijuan Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2569–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, 2024
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In this study, we have developed a model (RF-PWV) to characterize precipitable water vapor (PWV) variation with altitude in the study area. RF-PWV can significantly reduce errors in vertical correction, enhance PWV fusion product accuracy, and provide insights into PWV vertical distribution, thereby contributing to climate research.
Rolf Sander
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2419–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, 2024
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The open-source software MEXPLORER 1.0.0 is presented here. The program can be used to analyze, reduce, and visualize complex chemical reaction mechanisms. The mathematics behind the tool is based on graph theory: chemical species are represented as vertices, and reactions as edges. MEXPLORER is a community model published under the GNU General Public License.
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Yanfeng He, and Md Firoz Khan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169903618.82717612/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169903618.82717612/v2, 2024
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Using multi-platform observations, we validated global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations from a chemistry transport model. HCHO is a crucial intermediate of the chemical catalytic cycle that governs the ozone formation in the troposphere. The model was capable of replicating the observed spatiotemporal variability in HCHO. In a few cases, the model capability was limited. This is attributed to the uncertainties in the observations and the model parameters.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Jesse Norris, Alex Hall, Naomi Goldenson, Will Krantz, Benjamin Bass, Chad Thackeray, Henry Lin, Di Chen, Eli Dennis, Ethan Collins, Zachary J. Lebo, Emily Slinskey, Sara Graves, Surabhi Biyani, Bowen Wang, Stephen Cropper, and the UCLA Center for Climate Science Team
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2265–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, 2024
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Here, we project future climate across the western United States through the end of the 21st century using a regional climate model, embedded within 16 latest-generation global climate models, to provide the community with a high-resolution physically based ensemble of climate data for use at local scales. Strengths and weaknesses of the data are frankly discussed as we overview the downscaled dataset.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Salvatore Larosa, Domenico Cimini, Donatello Gallucci, Saverio Teodosio Nilo, and Filomena Romano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2053–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, 2024
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PyRTlib is an attractive educational tool because it provides a flexible and user-friendly way to broadly simulate how electromagnetic radiation travels through the atmosphere as it interacts with atmospheric constituents (such as gases, aerosols, and hydrometeors). PyRTlib is a so-called radiative transfer model; these are commonly used to simulate and understand remote sensing observations from ground-based, airborne, or satellite instruments.
Cited articles
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Bi, D., Dix, M., Marsland, S., O'Farrell, S., Sullivan, A., Bodman, R., Law, R., Harman, I., Srbinovsky, J., Rashid, H. A., Dobrohotoff, P., Mackallah, C., Yan, H., Hirst, A., Savita, A., Dias, F. B., Woodhouse, M., Fiedler, R., and Heerdegen, A.: Configuration and spin-up of ACCESS-CM2, the new generation Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 70, 225–251, https://doi.org/10.1071/es19040, 2020. a, b
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Webb, M. J., Bony, S., Chepfer, H., Dufresne, J. L., Klein, S. A., Zhang, Y., Marchand, R., Haynes, J. M., Pincus, R., and John, V. O.: COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 92, 1023–1043, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS2856.1, 2011. a, b
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Williams, K. D., Ringer, M. A., Beau, I., Cole, J. N. S., Dufresne, J. L., Koshiro, T., Stevens, B., Wang, Z., and Yokohata, T.: Origins of the solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 models, J. Climate, 27, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00169.1, 2014. a
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Hill, P. G., Furtado, K., Williams, K. D., Field, P. R., Manners, J. C., Hyder, P., and Kato, S.: Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean, J. Climate, 29, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0564.1, 2016. a, b, c, d
Bodman, R. W., Karoly, D. J., Dix, M. R., Harman, I. N., Srbinovsky, J., Dobrohotoff, P. B., and Mackallah, C.: Evaluation of CMIP6 AMIP climate simulations with the ACCESS-AM2 model, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 70, 166–179, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19033, 2020. a
Chen, T. and Guestrin, C.: XGBoost: A scalable tree boosting system, in: Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 13–17 August 2016, San Francisco, CA, USA, 785–794, Association for Computing Machinery, https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939785, 2016. a, b, c
Chubb, T. H., Jensen, J. B., Siems, S. T., and Manton, M. J.: In situ observations of supercooled liquid clouds over the Southern Ocean during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation campaigns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5280–5285, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50986, 2013. a
Dask Development Team: Dask: Library for dynamic task scheduling, http://dask.pydata.org (last access: 8 April 2024), 2016. a
Doelling, D. R., Loeb, N. G., Keyes, D. F., Nordeen, M. L., Morstad, D., Nguyen, C., Wielicki, B. A., Young, D. F., and Sun, M.: Geostationary enhanced temporal interpolation for ceres flux products, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 30, 1072–1090, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00136.1, 2013. a
Doelling, D. R., Sun, M., Nguyen, L. T., Nordeen, M. L., Haney, C. O., Keyes, D. F., and Mlynczak, P. E.: Advances in geostationary-derived longwave fluxes for the CERES synoptic (SYN1deg) product, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 33, 503–521, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0147.1, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fan, J., Wang, X., Wu, L., Zhou, H., Zhang, F., Yu, X., Lu, X., and Xiang, Y.: Comparison of Support Vector Machine and Extreme Gradient Boosting for predicting daily global solar radiation using temperature and precipitation in humid subtropical climates: A case study in China, Energ. Convers. Manage., 164, 102–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.02.087, 2018. a
Fiddes, S.: ACCESS-AM2 Southern Ocean cloud and radiation data and code for SHAP analysis, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7196621, 2023. a
Fiddes, S. L., Woodhouse, M. T., Lane, T. P., and Schofield, R.: Coral-reef-derived dimethyl sulfide and the climatic impact of the loss of coral reefs, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5883–5903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5883-2021, 2021. a
Fiddes, S. L., Protat, A., Mallet, M. D., Alexander, S. P., and Woodhouse, M. T.: Southern Ocean cloud and shortwave radiation biases in a nudged climate model simulation: does the model ever get it right?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14603–14630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14603-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f
Fiddes, S. L., Woodhouse, M. T., Lamprey, L. J., Humphries, R. S., and Mallet, M. D.: Evaluating the Australian Climate Model ACCESS-AM2, including the aerosol scheme GLOMAP, against Southern Ocean and Antarctic aerosol observations, in preparation, 2024.
Field, P. R. and Wood, R.: Precipitation and cloud structure in midlatitude cyclones, J. Climate, 20, 233–254, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3998.1, 2007. a
Fuchs, J., Cermak, J., and Andersen, H.: Building a cloud in the southeast Atlantic: understanding low-cloud controls based on satellite observations with machine learning, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16537–16552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16537-2018, 2018. a
Furtado, K. and Field, P.: The Role of Ice Microphysics Parametrizations in Determining the Prevalence of Supercooled Liquid Water in High-Resolution Simulations of a Southern Ocean Midlatitude Cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2001–2021, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0165.1, 2017. a, b
Furtado, K., Field, P. R., Boutle, I. A., Morcrette, C. J., and Wilkinson, J. M.: A Physically Based Subgrid Parameterization for the Production and Maintenance of Mixed-Phase Clouds in a General Circulation Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0021.1, 2016. a, b, c
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer New York, New York, NY, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7, 2009. a, b
Haynes, J. M., Jakob, C., Rossow, W. B., Tselioudis, G., and Brown, J. B.: Major characteristics of Southern Ocean cloud regimes and their effects on the energy budget, J. Climate, 24, 5061–5080, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4052.1, 2011. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hooker, G., Mentch, L., and Zhou, S.: Unrestricted permutation forces extrapolation: variable importance requires at least one more model, or there is no free variable importance, Stat. Comput., 31, 82, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-021-10057-z, 2021. a
Hoyer, S. and Hamman, J. J.: xarray: N-D labeled Arrays and Datasets in Python, Journal of Open Research Software, 5, 10, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.148, 2017. a
Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., Manton, M. J., Protat, A., and Delanoë, J.: A study on the low-altitude clouds over the Southern Ocean using the DARDAR-MASK, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D18204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017800, 2012. a
Hubanks, P., Pincus, R., Platnick, S., and Meyer, K.: Level-3 COSP Cloud Properties (MCD06COSP_L3) Combined Terra & Aqua MODIS Global Gridded Product for Climate Studies User Guide, Tech. rep., NASA, https://atmosphere-imager.gsfc.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/ModAtmo/documents/L3_MCD06COSP_UserGuide_v13.pdf (last access: 1 April 2021), 2020. a
Humphries, R. S., Keywood, M. D., Gribben, S., McRobert, I. M., Ward, J. P., Selleck, P., Taylor, S., Harnwell, J., Flynn, C., Kulkarni, G. R., Mace, G. G., Protat, A., Alexander, S. P., and McFarquhar, G.: Southern Ocean latitudinal gradients of cloud condensation nuclei, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12757–12782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12757-2021, 2021. a
Kay, J. E., Wall, C., Yettella, V., Medeiros, B., Hannay, C., Caldwell, P., and Bitz, C.: Global climate impacts of fixing the Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), J. Climate, 29, 4617–4636, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0358.1, 2016. a, b, c
Kuma, P., McDonald, A. J., Morgenstern, O., Alexander, S. P., Cassano, J. J., Garrett, S., Halla, J., Hartery, S., Harvey, M. J., Parsons, S., Plank, G., Varma, V., and Williams, J.: Evaluation of Southern Ocean cloud in the HadGEM3 general circulation model and MERRA-2 reanalysis using ship-based observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020. a
Lee, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Reddington, C. L., Mann, G. W., Stier, P., Spracklen, D. V., Pierce, J. R., and Carslaw, K. S.: The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8879–8914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013, 2013. a
Leinonen, J., Lebsock, M. D., Oreopoulos, L., and Cho, N.: Interregional differences in MODIS-derived cloud regimes, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 11648–11665, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025193, 2016. a
Lewis, H., Bellon, G., and Dinh, T.: Upstream Large-Scale Control of Subtropical Low-Cloud Climatology, J. Climate, 36, 3289–3303, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0676.1, 2023. a
Lundberg, S. and Lee, S.-I.: A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions, in: 31st Conference on Neural Information Processing System, Long Beach, CA, USA, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1705.07874, 22 May 2017. a, b
Lundberg, S. M., Erion, G., Chen, H., DeGrave, A., Prutkin, J. M., Nair, B., Katz, R., Himmelfarb, J., Bansal, N., and Lee, S.-I.: From local explanations to global understanding with explainable AI for trees, Nature Machine Intelligence, 2, 56–67, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-019-0138-9, 2020. a, b
Ma, J., Xie, S. P., and Kosaka, Y.: Mechanisms for tropical tropospheric circulation change in response to global warming, J. Climate, 25, 2979–2994, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00048.1, 2012. a
Mace, G. G. and Protat, A.: Clouds over the Southern Ocean as observed from the R/V investigator during CAPRICORN. Part I: Cloud occurrence and phase partitioning, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 1783–1803, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0194.1, 2018. a
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Short summary
In this study we present an evaluation that considers complex, non-linear systems in a holistic manner. This study uses XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to predict the simulated Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the ACCESS model using cloud property biases as predictors. We then used a novel feature importance analysis to quantify the role that each cloud bias plays in predicting the radiative bias, laying the foundation for advanced Earth system model evaluation and development.
In this study we present an evaluation that considers complex, non-linear systems in a holistic...
