Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
26 Feb 2024
Development and technical paper |
| 26 Feb 2024
| 26 Feb 2024
High-resolution multi-scaling of outdoor human thermal comfort and its intra-urban variability based on machine learning
Ferdinand Briegel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Jonas Wehrle
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Dirk Schindler
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Andreas Christen
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
William Morrison, Dana Looschelders, Jonnathan Céspedes, Bernie Claxton, Marc-Antoine Drouin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Aurélien Faucheux, Martial Haeffelin, Christopher C. Holst, Simone Kotthaus, Valéry Masson, James McGregor, Jeremy Price, Matthias Zeeman, Sue Grimmond, and Andreas Christen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted research using sophisticated wind sensors to better understand wind patterns in Paris. By installing these sensors across the city, we gathered detailed data on wind speeds and directions from 2022 to 2024. This information helps improve weather and climate models, making them more accurate for city environments. Our findings offer valuable insights for scientists studying urban air and weather, improving predictions and understanding of city-scale atmospheric processes.
Rainer Hilland, Josh Hashemi, Stavros Stagakis, Dominik Brunner, Lionel Constantin, Natascha Kljun, Betty Molinier, Samuel Hammer, Lukas Emmenegger, and Andreas Christen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1088, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study of simultaneously measured fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and co-emitted species in the city of Zurich. Flux measurements of CO2 alone can’t be attributed to specific emission sectors, such as road transport or residential heating. We present a model which uses the measured ratios of CO2 to carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as well as sector-specific reference ratios, to attribute measured fluxes to their emission sectors.
Ann-Kristin Kunz, Lars Borchardt, Andreas Christen, Julian Della Coletta, Markus Eritt, Xochilt Gutiérrez, Josh Hashemi, Rainer Hilland, Armin Jordan, Richard Kneißl, Virgile Legendre, Ingeborg Levin, Susanne Preunkert, Pascal Rubli, Stavros Stagakis, and Samuel Hammer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3175, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
We present, to our knowledge, the first relaxed eddy accumulation system explicitly tailored to a radiocarbon (14C)-based partitioning of fossil and non-fossil urban CO2 fluxes. Laboratory tests and in-depth quality and performance checks prove that the system meets the technical requirements. A pilot application on a tall-tower in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, demonstrates the ability to separate fossil and non-fossil CO2 fluxes within the typical precision of 14C measurements.
Matthias Zeeman, Andreas Christen, Sue Grimmond, Daniel Fenner, William Morrison, Gregor Feigel, Markus Sulzer, and Nektarios Chrysoulakis
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 13, 393–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-393-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an overview of a data system for documenting, processing, managing, and publishing data streams from research networks of atmospheric and environmental sensors of varying complexity in urban environments. Our solutions aim to deliver resilient, near-time data using freely available software.
Mathew Lipson, Sue Grimmond, Martin Best, Winston T. L. Chow, Andreas Christen, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Andrew Coutts, Ben Crawford, Stevan Earl, Jonathan Evans, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Je-Woo Hong, Jinkyu Hong, Leena Järvi, Sungsoo Jo, Yeon-Hee Kim, Simone Kotthaus, Keunmin Lee, Valéry Masson, Joseph P. McFadden, Oliver Michels, Wlodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Hirofumi Sugawara, Nigel Tapper, Erik Velasco, and Helen Claire Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5157–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new openly accessible collection of atmospheric observations from 20 cities around the world, capturing 50 site years. The observations capture local meteorology (temperature, humidity, wind, etc.) and the energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere (e.g. radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes). These observations can be used to improve our understanding of urban climate processes and to test the accuracy of urban climate models.
Toby D. Jackson, Sarab Sethi, Ebba Dellwik, Nikolas Angelou, Amanda Bunce, Tim van Emmerik, Marine Duperat, Jean-Claude Ruel, Axel Wellpott, Skip Van Bloem, Alexis Achim, Brian Kane, Dominick M. Ciruzzi, Steven P. Loheide II, Ken James, Daniel Burcham, John Moore, Dirk Schindler, Sven Kolbe, Kilian Wiegmann, Mark Rudnicki, Victor J. Lieffers, John Selker, Andrew V. Gougherty, Tim Newson, Andrew Koeser, Jason Miesbauer, Roger Samelson, Jim Wagner, Anthony R. Ambrose, Andreas Detter, Steffen Rust, David Coomes, and Barry Gardiner
Biogeosciences, 18, 4059–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4059-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4059-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have all seen trees swaying in the wind, but did you know that this motion can teach us about ecology? We summarized tree motion data from many different studies and looked for similarities between trees. We found that the motion of trees in conifer forests is quite similar to each other, whereas open-grown trees and broadleaf forests show more variation. It has been suggested that additional damping or amplification of tree motion occurs at high wind speeds, but we found no evidence of this.
June Skeeter, Andreas Christen, Andrée-Anne Laforce, Elyn Humphreys, and Greg Henry
Biogeosciences, 17, 4421–4441, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4421-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4421-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates carbon fluxes at Illisarvik, an artificial drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) in Canada's Northwest Territories. This is the first carbon balance study in a DTLB outside of Alaska. We used neural networks to identify the factors controlling fluxes and to model the effects of the controlling factors. We discuss the role of vegetation heterogeneity in fluxes, especially of methane, and we show how the carbon fluxes differ from Alaskan DTLBs.
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
Quantifying uncertainties in satellite NO2 superobservations for data assimilation and model evaluation
ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Simulation of the heat mitigation potential of unsealing measures in cities by parameterizing grass grid pavers for urban microclimate modelling with ENVI-met (V5)
AI-NAOS: an AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme for the chemical weather model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing to FAIRMODE’s MQO
Modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales: model development (IAP-AACM_PAH v1.0) and investigation of health risks in 2013 and 2018 in China
LIMA (v2.0): A full two-moment cloud microphysical scheme for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH v5-6
SLUCM+BEM (v1.0): a simple parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption in WRF-Urban (v4.3.2)
NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM2.5 chemical components
Source-specific bias correction of US background and anthropogenic ozone modeled in CMAQ
Observational operator for fair model evaluation with ground NO2 measurements
Valid time shifting ensemble Kalman filter (VTS-EnKF) for dust storm forecasting
The third Met Office Unified Model-JULES Regional Atmosphere and Land Configuration, RAL3
An updated parameterization of the unstable atmospheric surface layer in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system
The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators
An updated aerosol simulation in the Community Earth System Model (v2.1.3): dust and marine aerosol emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation
Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization
Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
Development of the MPAS-CMAQ coupled system (V1.0) for multiscale global air quality modeling
UA-ICON with NWP physics package (version: ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Assessment of object-based indices to identify convective organization
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using Spectral Bin Model (SBM): Comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System version 1.0
Impact of Multiple Radar Wind Profilers Data Assimilation on Convective Scale Short-Term Rainfall Forecasts: OSSE Studies over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
NEIVAv1.0: Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi et al. (2011) version 1.0
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre and sub-km scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique Adnan Siddiqui, Claudia Christine Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with upper atmosphere extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). The parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations were optimized, and realistic modelling of the thermal and dynamic state of the mesopause regions was achieved. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and Gyuwon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Microphysics model-based diagnosis such as the spectral bin model (SBM) recently has been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM have relatively higher accuracy about snow and wetsnow events whereas lower accuracy about rain event. When microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, accuracy about rain events was improved.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-194, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
Cited articles
Akiba, T., Sano, S., Yanase, T., Ohta, T., and Koyama, M.: Optuna: A Next-Generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework, in: Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, 2623–2631, https://doi.org/10.1145/3292500.3330701, 2019.
Albertson, J. D. and Parlange, M. B.: Natural integration of scalar fluxes from complex terrain, Adv. Water Resour., 23, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(99)00011-1, 1999a.
Albertson, J. D. and Parlange, M. B.: Surface length scales and shear stress: Implications for land-atmosphere interaction over complex terrain, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2121–2132, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900094, 1999b.
Ao, X., Grimmond, C. S. B., Ward, H. C., Gabey, A. M., Tan, J., Yang, X.-Q., Liu, D., Zhi, X., Liu, H., and Zhang, N.: Evaluation of the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) at a Dense Urban Site in Shanghai: Sensitivity to Anthropogenic Heat and Irrigation, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1983–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0057.1, 2018.
Bergstra, J., Bardenet, R., Bengio, Y., and Kégl, B.: Algorithms for Hyper-Parameter Optimization, in: Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2546–2554, ISBN 9781618395993, 2011.
Bergstra, J., Yamins, D., and Cox, D.: Making a Science of Model Search: Hyperparameter Optimization in Hundreds of Dimensions for Vision Architectures, in: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, 115–123, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1209.5111, 2013.
Best, M. J. and Grimmond, C. S. B.: Key Conclusions of the First International Urban Land Surface Model Comparison Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 805–819, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00122.1, 2015.
Błażejczyk, K., Jendritzky, G., Bröde, P., Fiala, D., Havenith, G., Epstein, Y., Psikuta, A., and Kampmann, B.: An introduction to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Geographia Polonica, 86, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.2013.1, 2013.
Briegel, F.: Code HTC-NN, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7974472, 2023a.
Briegel, F.: Data HTC-NN, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7974307, 2023b.
Briegel, F., Lee, S. C., Black, T. A., Jassal, R. S., and Christen, A.: Factors controlling long-term carbon dioxide exchange between a Douglas-fir stand and the atmosphere identified using an artificial neural network approach, Ecol. Model., 435, 109266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109266, 2020.
Briegel, F., Makansi, O., Brox, T., Matzarakis, A., and Christen, A.: Modelling long-term thermal comfort conditions in urban environments using a deep convolutional encoder-decoder as a computational shortcut, Urban Clim., 47, 101359, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101359, 2023.
Chen, F., Kusaka, H., Bornstein, R., Ching, J., Grimmond, C. S. B., Grossman-Clarke, S., Loridan, T., Manning, K. W., Martilli, A., Miao, S., Sailor, D., Salamanca, F. P., Taha, H., Tewari, M., Wang, X., Wyszogrodzki, A. A., and Zhang, C.: The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 273–288, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2158, 2011.
Chen, S., Yang, Y., Deng, F., Zhang, Y., Liu, D., Liu, C., and Gao, Z.: A high-resolution monitoring approach of canopy urban heat island using a random forest model and multi-platform observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 735–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-735-2022, 2022.
City of Freiburg im Breisgau – Bevölkerung: https://www.freiburg.de/pb/site/Freiburg/node/207904?QUERYSTRING=Stadtbezirk 20Wohnbevoelkerung, last access: 22 June 2022.
Coccolo, S., Kämpf, J., Scartezzini, J.-L., and Pearlmutter, D.: Outdoor human comfort and thermal stress: A comprehensive review on models and standards, Urban Clim., 18, 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2016.08.004, 2016.
Cohen, P., Potchter, O., and Matzarakis, A.: Daily and seasonal climatic conditions of green urban open spaces in the Mediterranean climate and their impact on human comfort, Build Environ., 51, 285–295, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.11.020, 2012.
CRED and UNDRR: The Non-COVID Year in Disasters, Brussels, CRED, https://emdat.be/sites/default/files/adsr_2020.pdf (last access: 19 February 2024), 2021.
Demuzere, M., Kittner, J., Martilli, A., Mills, G., Moede, C., Stewart, I. D., van Vliet, J., and Bechtel, B.: A global map of local climate zones to support earth system modelling and urban-scale environmental science, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3835–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3835-2022, 2022.
Dupont, S., Mestayer, P. G., Guilloteau, E., Berthier, E., and Andrieu, H.: Parameterization of the Urban Water Budget with the Submesoscale Soil Model, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 45, 624–648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2363.1, 2006.
Epstein, Y. and Moran, D. S.: Thermal Comfort and the Heat Stress Indices, Ind. Health, 44, 388–398, https://doi.org/10.2486/indhealth.44.388, 2006.
Feigel, G., Plein, M., Zeeman, M., Briegel, F., and Christen, A.: A compact and customisable street-level sensor system for real-time weather monitoring and outreach in Freiburg, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15609, 2023.
Fenner, D., Meier, F., Bechtel, B., Otto, M., and Scherer, D.: Intra and inter “local climate zone” variability of air temperature as observed by crowdsourced citizen weather stations in Berlin, Germany, Meteorol. Z., 26, 525–547, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0861, 2017.
Giometto, M. G., Christen, A., Meneveau, C., Fang, J., Krafczyk, M., and Parlange, M. B.: Spatial Characteristics of Roughness Sublayer Mean Flow and Turbulence Over a Realistic Urban Surface, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 160, 425–452, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0157-6, 2016.
Giometto, M. G., Christen, A., Egli, P. E., Schmid, M. F., Tooke, R. T., Coops, N. C., and Parlange, M. B.: Effects of trees on mean wind, turbulence and momentum exchange within and above a real urban environment, Adv. Water Resour., 106, 154–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.06.018, 2017.
Grimmond, C. S. B., Blackett, M., Best, M. J., Baik, J.-J., Belcher, S. E., Beringer, J., Bohnenstengel, S. I., Calmet, I., Chen, F., Coutts, A., Dandou, A., Fortuniak, K., Gouvea, M. L., Hamdi, R., Hendry, M., Kanda, M., Kawai, T., Kawamoto, Y., Kondo, H., Krayenhoff, E. S., Lee, S.-H., Loridan, T., Martilli, A., Masson, V., Miao, S., Oleson, K., Ooka, R., Pigeon, G., Porson, A., Ryu, Y.-H., Salamanca, F., Steeneveld, G. J., Tombrou, M., Voogt, J. A., Young, D. T., and Zhang, N.: Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 244–272, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2227, 2011.
Gubler, M., Christen, A., Remund, J., and Brönnimann, S.: Evaluation and application of a low-cost measurement network to study intra-urban temperature differences during summer 2018 in Bern, Switzerland, Urban Clim., 37, 100817, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100817, 2021.
Hamdi, R., Degrauwe, D., and Termonia, P.: Coupling the Town Energy Balance (TEB) Scheme to an Operational Limited-Area NWP Model: Evaluation for a Highly Urbanized Area in Belgium, Weather Forecast., 27, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00064.1, 2012.
Hamdi, R., Kusaka, H., Doan, Q.-V., Cai, P., He, H., Luo, G., Kuang, W., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., van Schaeybroek, B., and Termonia, P.: The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations, Earth Syst. Environ., 4, 631–646, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00193-3, 2020.
Ho, H. C., Knudby, A., Sirovyak, P., Xu, Y., Hodul, M., and Henderson, S. B.: Mapping maximum urban air temperature on hot summer days, Remote Sens. Environ., 154, 38–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.08.012, 2014.
Holst, J. and Mayer, H.: Impacts of street design parameters on human-biometeorological variables, Meteorol. Z., 20, 241–552, 2011.
IPCC: Index, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Järvi, L., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Christen, A.: The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): Evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver, J. Hydrol., 411, 219–237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.001, 2011.
Kanda, M., Kanega, M., Kawai, T., Moriwaki, R., and Sugawara, H.: Roughness Lengths for Momentum and Heat Derived from Outdoor Urban Scale Models, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clima., 46, 1067–1079, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2500.1, 2007.
Kántor, N. and Unger, J.: The most problematic variable in the course of human-biometeorological comfort assessment – the mean radiant temperature, Open Geosci., 3, 90–100, https://doi.org/10.2478/s13533-011-0010-x, 2011.
Krayenhoff, E. S. and Voogt, J. A.: A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 123, 433–461, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-006-9153-6, 2007.
Lee, H., Holst, J., and Mayer, H.: Modification of Human-Biometeorologically Significant Radiant Flux Densities by Shading as Local Method to Mitigate Heat Stress in Summer within Urban Street Canyons, Adv. Meteorol., 2013, 312572, https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/312572, 2013.
Lindberg, F. and Grimmond, C. S. B.: SOLWEIG_v2019a, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, University of Reading, UK, https://umep-docs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/OtherManuals/SOLWEIG.html (last access: 19 February 2024), 2019.
Martilli, A., Clappier, A., and Rotach, M. W.: An Urban Surface Exchange Parameterisation for Mesoscale Models, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 104, 261–304, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016099921195, 2002.
Masson, V.: A Physically-Based Scheme For The Urban Energy Budget In Atmospheric Models, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 94, 357–397, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1002463829265, 2000.
Masson, V., Lemonsu, A., Hidalgo, J., and Voogt, J.: Urban Climates and Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 45, 411–444, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083623, 2020.
Matzarakis, A., Martinelli, L., and Ketterer, C.: Relevance of Thermal Indices for the Assessment of the Urban Heat Island, in: Counteracting Urban Heat Island Effects in a Global Climate Change Scenario, edited by: Musco, F., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 93–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10425-6_4, 2016.
Meili, N., Acero, J. A., Peleg, N., Manoli, G., Burlando, P., and Fatichi, S.: Vegetation cover and plant-trait effects on outdoor thermal comfort in a tropical city, Build. Environ., 195, 107733, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.107733, 2021.
Meyer, D., Grimmond, S., Dueben, P., Hogan, R., and van Reeuwijk, M.: Machine Learning Emulation of Urban Land Surface Processes, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002744, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002744, 2022.
Mirzaei, P. A.: Recent challenges in modeling of urban heat island, Sustain. Cities Soc., 19, 200–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2015.04.001, 2015.
Muñoz Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1981 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/Cds.E2161bac, 2019.
Nice, K. A., Coutts, A. M., and Tapper, N. J.: Development of the VTUF-3D v1.0 urban micro-climate model to support assessment of urban vegetation influences on human thermal comfort, Urban Clim., 24, 1052–1076, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.008, 2018.
Plein, M., Feigel, G., Zeeman, M., Briegel, F., Dormann, C., and Christen, A.: A sensor network for real-time monitoring and modelling of street-level heat exposure in Freiburg, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13816, 2023.
Potchter, O., Cohen, P., Lin, T.-P., and Matzarakis, A.: Outdoor human thermal perception in various climates: A comprehensive review of approaches, methods and quantification, Sci. Total Environ., 631–632, 390–406, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.276, 2018.
Quanz, J. A., Ulrich, S., Fenner, D., Holtmann, A., and Eimermacher, J.: Micro-Scale Variability of Air Temperature within a Local Climate Zone in Berlin, Germany, during Summer, Climate, 6, 5, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010005, 2018.
Rafael, S., Martins, H., Matos, M. J., Cerqueira, M., Pio, C., Lopes, M., and Borrego, C.: Application of SUEWS model forced with WRF: Energy fluxes validation in urban and suburban Portuguese areas, Urban Clim., 33, 100662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100662, 2020.
Rousi, E., Kornhuber, K., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Luo, F., and Coumou, D.: Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia, Nat. Commun., 13, 3851, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y, 2022.
Shreevastava, A., Prasanth, S., Ramamurthy, P., and Rao, P. S. C.: Scale-dependent response of the urban heat island to the European heatwave of 2018, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac25bb, 2021.
Staiger, H., Laschewski, G., and Matzarakis, A.: Selection of Appropriate Thermal Indices for Applications in Human Biometeorological Studies, Atmosphere, 10, 18, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010018, 2019.
Stewart, I. D. and Oke, T. R.: Local Climate Zones for Urban Temperature Studies, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1879–1900, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00019.1, 2012.
Straub, A., Berger, K., Breitner, S., Cyrys, J., Geruschkat, U., Jacobeit, J., Kühlbach, B., Kusch, T., Philipp, A., Schneider, A., Umminger, R., Wolf, K., and Beck, C.: Statistical modelling of spatial patterns of the urban heat island intensity in the urban environment of Augsburg, Germany, Urban Clim., 29, 100491, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100491, 2019.
Sun, T. and Grimmond, S.: A Python-enhanced urban land surface model SuPy (SUEWS in Python, v2019.2): development, deployment and demonstration, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2781–2795, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2781-2019, 2019.
Sun, T., ljarvi, Omidvar, H., LewisB7, natalieth, biglimp, Li, Z., Grimmond, S., and pjaysuews: UMEP-dev/SUEWS: 2020a Release, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5723970, November 2021.
Unger, J., Skarbit, N., Kovács, A., and Gál, T.: Comparison of regional and urban outdoor thermal stress conditions in heatwave and normal summer periods: A case study, Urban Clim., 32, 100619, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100619, 2020.
Ward, H. C., Evans, J. G., and Grimmond, C. S. B.: Multi-season eddy covariance observations of energy, water and carbon fluxes over a suburban area in Swindon, UK, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4645–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4645-2013, 2013.
Ward, H. C., Kotthaus, S., Järvi, L., and Grimmond, C. S. B.: Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): Development and evaluation at two UK sites, Urban Clim., 18, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2016.05.001, 2016.
Short summary
We present a new approach to model heat stress in cities using artificial intelligence (AI). We show that the AI model is fast in terms of prediction but accurate when evaluated with measurements. The fast-predictive AI model enables several new potential applications, including heat stress prediction and warning; downscaling of potential future climates; evaluation of adaptation effectiveness; and, more fundamentally, development of guidelines to support urban planning and policymaking.
We present a new approach to model heat stress in cities using artificial intelligence (AI). We...
