Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
22 Feb 2024
Model experiment description paper |
| 22 Feb 2024
| 22 Feb 2024
New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Marika M. Holland
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Cecile Hannay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
John Fasullo
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Alexandra Jahn
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Jennifer E. Kay
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Michael Mills
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Isla R. Simpson
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
William Wieder
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Peter Lawrence
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Erik Kluzek
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
David Bailey
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Middle East dust as an important external driver of the Indian Ocean Dipole G. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68842-1
- Comparative analysis of extreme precipitation simulations over China by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models: similarities, differences, and uncertainty assessment X. Rao et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae009b
- Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold A. Cannon https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8
- A comparative analysis of CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles in attribution of global land extreme precipitation events Q. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04238-w
- Microbially driven biogeochemical cycling of biogenic elements: processes, coupling mechanisms, and ecological implications P. Han & C. Liu https://doi.org/10.1360/CSB-2025-5256
- Advances in aggregation methods for multi-model ensembles in climate science: A comprehensive review M. Shiru et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104391
- Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
- European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards E. Felsche et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01575-5
- Human influence on the recent weakening of storm tracks in boreal summer R. Chemke & D. Coumou https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00640-2
- Temporal and spatial dynamics of drought in the Amur River Basin under climate change: observed trends, future projections, and driving mechanisms Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07909-z
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7 N. Gillett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025
- A statistical-dynamical method for projecting temperature across multiple SSPs from a limited subset: A CMIP6 case study X. XIE et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.030
- An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment J. Dunne et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025
- Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research P. Griffiths et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Could Climate Projections Be Verifiable? A. Pendergrass https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70200
- Stratospheric circulation response to large Northern Hemisphere high-latitude volcanic eruptions in a global climate model H. Guðlaugsdóttir et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3961-2025
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3003-2025
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Middle East dust as an important external driver of the Indian Ocean Dipole G. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68842-1
- Comparative analysis of extreme precipitation simulations over China by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models: similarities, differences, and uncertainty assessment X. Rao et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae009b
- Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold A. Cannon https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8
- A comparative analysis of CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles in attribution of global land extreme precipitation events Q. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04238-w
- Microbially driven biogeochemical cycling of biogenic elements: processes, coupling mechanisms, and ecological implications P. Han & C. Liu https://doi.org/10.1360/CSB-2025-5256
- Advances in aggregation methods for multi-model ensembles in climate science: A comprehensive review M. Shiru et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104391
- Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
- European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards E. Felsche et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01575-5
- Human influence on the recent weakening of storm tracks in boreal summer R. Chemke & D. Coumou https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00640-2
- Temporal and spatial dynamics of drought in the Amur River Basin under climate change: observed trends, future projections, and driving mechanisms Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07909-z
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7 N. Gillett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025
- A statistical-dynamical method for projecting temperature across multiple SSPs from a limited subset: A CMIP6 case study X. XIE et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.030
- An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment J. Dunne et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025
- Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research P. Griffiths et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Could Climate Projections Be Verifiable? A. Pendergrass https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70200
- Stratospheric circulation response to large Northern Hemisphere high-latitude volcanic eruptions in a global climate model H. Guðlaugsdóttir et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3961-2025
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3003-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Jul 2026
Short summary
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and...
