Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Marika M. Holland
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Cecile Hannay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
John Fasullo
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Alexandra Jahn
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Jennifer E. Kay
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Michael Mills
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Isla R. Simpson
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
William Wieder
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Peter Lawrence
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Erik Kluzek
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
David Bailey
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparative analysis of extreme precipitation simulations over China by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models: similarities, differences, and uncertainty assessment X. Rao et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ae009b
- European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards E. Felsche et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01575-5
- Human influence on the recent weakening of storm tracks in boreal summer R. Chemke & D. Coumou 10.1038/s41612-024-00640-2
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7 N. Gillett et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025
- Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold A. Cannon 10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8
- Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research P. Griffiths et al. 10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. 10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
- Stratospheric circulation response to large Northern Hemisphere high-latitude volcanic eruptions in a global climate model H. Guðlaugsdóttir et al. 10.5194/acp-25-3961-2025
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparative analysis of extreme precipitation simulations over China by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models: similarities, differences, and uncertainty assessment X. Rao et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ae009b
- European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards E. Felsche et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01575-5
- Human influence on the recent weakening of storm tracks in boreal summer R. Chemke & D. Coumou 10.1038/s41612-024-00640-2
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7 N. Gillett et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025
- Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold A. Cannon 10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8
- Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research P. Griffiths et al. 10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. 10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
- Stratospheric circulation response to large Northern Hemisphere high-latitude volcanic eruptions in a global climate model H. Guðlaugsdóttir et al. 10.5194/acp-25-3961-2025
Latest update: 19 Sep 2025
Short summary
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and...