New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model

Holland, Marika M.; Hannay, Cecile; Fasullo, John; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Mills, Michael; Simpson, Isla R.; Wieder, William; Lawrence, Peter; Kluzek, Erik; Bailey, David

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

Model experiment description paper

|

22 Feb 2024

Model experiment description paper |

| 22 Feb 2024

New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model

Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024-supplement

Data sets

CESM2 simulations with CMIP5 forcing Marika Holland and Cecile Hannay https://doi.org/10.26024/4zgv-rt74

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project J. Kay and C. Deser https://doi.org/10.5065/d6j101d1

Model output for CESM2-LE presented in Rodgers et al., 2021 CESM2_LE_OUTPUT https://doi.org/10.26024/kgmp-c556

Model code and software

NCAR/CESM2-CMIP5 experiments (v1.1) Cecile Hannay and Marika Holland https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169925

Short summary

Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.