A model instability issue in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 and potential solutions

Zhou, Xiaqiong; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

Development and technical paper

|

12 Jun 2023

Development and technical paper |

| 12 Jun 2023

A model instability issue in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 and potential solutions

Xiaqiong Zhou and Hann-Ming Henry Juang

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Final revised paper (published on 12 Jun 2023)
Preprint (discussion started on 30 Jan 2023)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2022-1235', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Feb 2023

see attachment

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xiaqiong Zhou, 07 Mar 2023
  
  Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions. Please see the attached file for our replies.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-AC1
RC2:
'Comment on egusphere-2022-1235', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Apr 2023

The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2022-1235/egusphere-2022-1235-RC2-supplement.pdf

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-RC2
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Xiaqiong Zhou, 13 Apr 2023
  
  Thank you for the excellent summary of our work. Your summary accurately and concisely captured the key aspects and conclusions we would like to address in our manuscript. We revised the manuscript carefully according to your comments and suggestions. Please find our replies from the attachment.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-AC2
EC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2022-1235', Simon Unterstrasser, 11 Apr 2023

Dear Authors,
I have read the two reviews . In my opinion and as adressed by the reviewers, the manuscript discusses a very particular problem, which may only be a relevant problem in your particular model. As a consequence, your presented solution that remedied the instability may not be of help for similar problems in similar models.
Nevertheless, I still see a benefit of describing such a problem and its solution in the scientific literature.
Hence, I encourage you to submit a revised version of the manuscript.
Kind regards,
Simon Unterstrasser

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-EC1
- AC3: 'Reply on EC1', Xiaqiong Zhou, 13 Apr 2023
  
  Dear Simon:
  Thank you for taking the time as an editor to review our manuscript and the reviewer's comments. We appreciate your feedback and agree with the reviewers' comments that the problem we addressed in our manuscript may be specific to our model. However, we also believe that our findings and solution can still be valuable to the scientific community, particularly those working on similar models or with a similar problem. Moreover, we would like to highlight that FV3 has been widely used in weather forecasting and climate modeling, further emphasizing the significance of our research.
  We have carefully considered the reviewers' comments and have revised the manuscript accordingly. We believe that these revisions have addressed the concerns raised by the reviewers and have strengthened the manuscript overall.
  We would like to thank you for your encouragement to submit the revised manuscript. We have uploaded the revised version.
  Best regards
  Xiaqiong Zhou
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1235-AC3

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload

AR by Xiaqiong Zhou on behalf of the Authors (13 Apr 2023) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (23 Apr 2023) by Simon Unterstrasser

AR by Xiaqiong Zhou on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2023) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (15 May 2023) by Simon Unterstrasser

AR by Xiaqiong Zhou on behalf of the Authors (16 May 2023) Manuscript

Short summary

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 experienced model instability failures in real-time runs resolved by increasing the minimum thickness depth parameter. Further investigation revealed that the issue was caused by the advection of geopotential heights at the model's layer interfaces. By replacing high-order boundary conditions with zero-gradient boundary conditions for interface-wind reconstruction, the instability was effectively addressed.