A model instability issue in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 and potential solutions

Zhou, Xiaqiong; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3263-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 11

Development and technical paper

|

12 Jun 2023

Development and technical paper |

| 12 Jun 2023

A model instability issue in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 and potential solutions

Xiaqiong Zhou and Hann-Ming Henry Juang

Data sets

A Model Instability Issue in the NCEP Global Forecast System Version 16 and Potential Solutions Xiaqiong Zhou and Henry Hann-Ming Juang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7555839

Model code and software

The model code, compilation script, the scripts to run the model and the namelist setting are available EMC/NOAA https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/global-workflow/tree/gfs.v16.2.2

Global workflow for GFS and GEFS K. Friedman, W. Kolczynski, R. Mahajan, L. Gan, and A. Chawla https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/global-workflow/tree/gfs.v16.2.2

Short summary

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System version 16 experienced model instability failures in real-time runs resolved by increasing the minimum thickness depth parameter. Further investigation revealed that the issue was caused by the advection of geopotential heights at the model's layer interfaces. By replacing high-order boundary conditions with zero-gradient boundary conditions for interface-wind reconstruction, the instability was effectively addressed.