Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1997-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1997-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A machine learning emulator for Lagrangian particle dispersion model footprints: a case study using NAME
Elena Fillola
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Raul Santos-Rodriguez
Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Alistair Manning
Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Simon O'Doherty
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Rigby
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Related authors
Elena Fillola, Raul Santos-Rodriguez, Rachel Tunnicliffe, Jeffrey Clark, Nawid Keshtmand, Anita Ganesan, and Matthew Rigby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2392, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite-based greenhouse gas measurements can be used in “inverse models” to improve emissions reporting, but one of the key components, the simulations of atmospheric transport, struggle to scale to large datasets. We introduce GATES, an AI-driven emulator that outputs transport plumes about 1000× faster than traditional models. Applied to Brazil’s methane emissions, GATES produces estimates consistent with physics-based methods, offering a scalable path for timely emissions monitoring.
Elena Fillola, Raul Santos-Rodriguez, Rachel Tunnicliffe, Jeffrey Clark, Nawid Keshtmand, Anita Ganesan, and Matthew Rigby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2392, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite-based greenhouse gas measurements can be used in “inverse models” to improve emissions reporting, but one of the key components, the simulations of atmospheric transport, struggle to scale to large datasets. We introduce GATES, an AI-driven emulator that outputs transport plumes about 1000× faster than traditional models. Applied to Brazil’s methane emissions, GATES produces estimates consistent with physics-based methods, offering a scalable path for timely emissions monitoring.
Luke M. Western, Stephen Bourguet, Molly Crotwell, Lei Hu, Paul B. Krummel, Hélène De Longueville, Alistair J. Mainning, Jens Mühle, Dominique Rust, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Minde An, Jgor Arduini, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Chris Lunder, Michela Maione, Stephen A. Montzka, David Nance, Simon O’Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran M. Stanley, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Dickon Young, Matt Rigby, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements to estimate emissions of two gases, called HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, that harm the ozone layer. Despite international regulation to stop their production, we found that their emissions have not fallen. This may be linked to how they are used to make other chemicals. Our findings show that some banned substances are still reaching the atmosphere, likely through leaks during chemical production, which could slow the recovery of the ozone layer.
Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Jens Mühle, Paul B. Krummel, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Ben Adam, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Ove Hermansen, Jooil Kim, Ray L. Langenfelds, Zoë M. Loh, Blagoj Mitrevski, Joseph R. Pitt, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Hsiang-Jui Wang, Ray F. Weiss, and Ronald G. Prinn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-348, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We used global measurements and an atmospheric model to estimate how emissions and abundances of 42 chemically and radiatively important trace gases have changed over time. These gases affect the Earth's radiative balance and the ozone layer. Our data sets help track progress in reducing harmful. This work supports international efforts to protect the environment by providing clear, long-term, consistent data on how these gases are changing in the atmosphere.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Martin Vojta, Andreas Plach, Rona L. Thompson, Pallav Purohit, Kieran Stanley, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Joe Pitt, Xin Lan, and Andreas Stohl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1095, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We determine European emissions of the highly potent greenhouse gas sulfur hexafluoride from 2005 to 2021 – focusing on high-emitting countries and the aggregated EU-27 emissions. Emissions declined in most regions, likely due to EU F-gas regulations. However, our results reveal that most studied countries underestimate their emissions in their national reports. Our sensitivity tests highlight the importance of dense observational networks for reliable inversion-based emission estimates.
Fabian Maier, Eva Falge, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Stephan Henne, Ute Karstens, Dafina Kikaj, Ingeborg Levin, Alistair Manning, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-477, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The radioactive noble gas radon (222Rn) is a suitable natural tracer for atmospheric transport and mixing processes that can be used to validate and calibrate atmospheric transport models. However, this requires accurate estimates of the 222Rn flux from the soil into the atmosphere. In our study, we evaluate the reliability of process-based 222Rn flux maps for Europe using a 222Rn inversion. Our inversion results can give some indications on how to improve the process-based 222Rn flux maps.
Dafina Kikaj, Edward Chung, Alan D. Griffiths, Scott D. Chambers, Grant Forster, Angelina Wenger, Penelope Pickers, Chris Rennick, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Kieran Stanley, Dickon Young, Leigh S. Fleming, Karina Adcock, Emmal Safi, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a protocol to improve confidence in atmospheric radon measurements, enabling site comparisons and integration with greenhouse gas data. As a natural tracer, radon provides an independent check of transport model performance. This standardized method enhances radon’s use as a metric for model evaluation. Beyond UK observatories, it can support broader networks like ICOS and WMO/GAW, advancing global atmospheric research.
Haklim Choi, Alison L. Redington, Hyeri Park, Jooil Kim, Rona L. Thompson, Jens Mühle, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Ray F. Weiss, Alistair J. Manning, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7309–7330, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed with an inversion model the atmospheric abundance of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases, from 2008 to 2020 at Gosan station in South Korea and revealed a significant increase in emissions, especially from eastern China and Japan. This increase contradicts reported data, underscoring the need for accurate monitoring and reporting. Our findings are crucial for understanding and managing global HFCs emissions, highlighting the importance of efforts to reduce HFCs.
Hannah Chawner, Eric Saboya, Karina E. Adcock, Tim Arnold, Yuri Artioli, Caroline Dylag, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Heather Graven, Gennadi Lessin, Peter Levy, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Alistair Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Chris Rennick, Christian Rödenbeck, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4231–4252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2), has been proposed as a tracer for fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In this model sensitivity study, we examine the use of APO for this purpose in the UK and compare our model to observations. We find that our model simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties relating to ocean fluxes and boundary conditions.
Emily Dowd, Alistair J. Manning, Bryn Orth-Lashley, Marianne Girard, James France, Rebecca E. Fisher, Dave Lowry, Mathias Lanoisellé, Joseph R. Pitt, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Glen Thistlethwaite, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, and Chris Wilson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first validation of the satellite-derived emission estimates using surface-based mobile greenhouse gas surveys of an active gas leak detected near Cheltenham, UK. GHGSat’s emission estimates broadly agree with the surface-based mobile survey and steps were taken to fix the leak, highlighting the importance of satellite data in identifying emissions and helping to reduce our human impact on climate change.
Rona L. Thompson, Stephen A. Montzka, Martin K. Vollmer, Jgor Arduini, Molly Crotwell, Paul B. Krummel, Chris Lunder, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Isaac Vimont, Hsiang Wang, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1415–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The hydroxyl radical determines the atmospheric lifetimes of numerous species including methane. Since OH is very short-lived, it is not possible to directly measure its concentration on scales relevant for understanding its effect on other species. Here, OH is inferred by looking at changes in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). We find that OH levels have been fairly stable over our study period (2004 to 2021), suggesting that OH is not the main driver of the recent increase in atmospheric methane.
Tanja J. Schuck, Johannes Degen, Eric Hintsa, Peter Hoor, Markus Jesswein, Timo Keber, Daniel Kunkel, Fred Moore, Florian Obersteiner, Matt Rigby, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Luke M. Western, Andreas Zahn, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 689–705, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the interhemispheric gradient of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a strong long-lived greenhouse gas. Its emissions are stronger in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore, mixing ratios in the Southern Hemisphere lag behind. Comparing the observations to a box model, the model predicts air in the Southern Hemisphere to be older. For a better agreement, the emissions used as model input need to be increased (and their spatial pattern changed), and we need to modify north–south transport.
Ioannis Katharopoulos, Dominique Rust, Martin K. Vollmer, Dominik Brunner, Stefan Reimann, Simon J. O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Tanja Schuck, Jgor Arduini, Lukas Emmenegger, and Stephan Henne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14159–14186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of climate change mitigation needs to be scrutinized by monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Countries report their emissions to the UN in a bottom-up manner. By combining atmospheric observations and transport models someone can independently validate emission estimates in a top-down fashion. We report Swiss emissions of synthetic GHGs based on kilometer-scale transport and inverse modeling, highlighting the role of appropriate resolution in complex terrain.
Hyeri Park, Jooil Kim, Haklim Choi, Sohyeon Geum, Yeaseul Kim, Rona L. Thompson, Jens Mühle, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Paul J. Fraser, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul B. Krummel, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9401–9411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9401-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on atmospheric HFC-23 observations, the first estimate of post-CDM HFC-23 emissions in eastern Asia for 2008–2019 shows that these emissions contribute significantly to the global emissions rise. The observation-derived emissions were much larger than the bottom-up estimates expected to approach zero after 2015 due to national abatement activities. These discrepancies could be attributed to unsuccessful factory-level HFC-23 abatement and inaccurate quantification of emission reductions.
Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Stephan Henne, Francesco Graziosi, Luke M. Western, Jgor Arduini, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Michela Maione, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Stefan Reimann, Matthew Rigby, Peter K. Salameh, Peter G. Simmonds, T. Gerard Spain, Kieran Stanley, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7383–7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were used in Europe pre-1990, damaging the stratospheric ozone layer. Legislation has controlled production and use, and global emissions have decreased sharply. The global rate of decline in CFC-11 recently slowed and was partly attributed to illegal emission in eastern China. This study concludes that emissions of CFC-11 in western Europe have not contributed to the unexplained part of the global increase in CFC-11 observed in the last decade.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Peter Bergamaschi, Arjo Segers, Dominik Brunner, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Michel Ramonet, Tim Arnold, Tobias Biermann, Huilin Chen, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Grant Forster, Arnoud Frumau, Dagmar Kubistin, Xin Lan, Markus Leuenberger, Matthias Lindauer, Morgan Lopez, Giovanni Manca, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Simon O'Doherty, Bert Scheeren, Martin Steinbacher, Pamela Trisolino, Gabriela Vítková, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13243–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system, "FLEXVAR", and its application for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018. The new system combines a high spatial resolution of 7 km x 7 km with a variational data assimilation technique, which allows CH4 emissions to be optimized from individual model grid cells. The high resolution allows the observations to be better reproduced, while the derived emissions show overall good consistency with two existing models.
Angharad C. Stell, Michael Bertolacci, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Matthew Rigby, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Manfredi Manizza, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12945–12960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions over 2011–2020, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0° and 30°N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020.
Luke M. Western, Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Cathy M. Trudinger, Lei Hu, Stephan Henne, Xuekun Fang, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Christina Theodoridi, David S. Godwin, Jgor Arduini, Bronwyn Dunse, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Michela Maione, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Daniel Say, Roland Schmidt, Tanja Schuck, Carolina Siso, Kieran M. Stanley, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Stephen A. Montzka, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9601–9616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The production of ozone-destroying gases is being phased out. Even though production of one of the main ozone-depleting gases, called HCFC-141b, has been declining for many years, the amount that is being released to the atmosphere has been increasing since 2017. We do not know for sure why this is. A possible explanation is that HCFC-141b that was used to make insulating foams many years ago is only now escaping to the atmosphere, or a large part of its production is not being reported.
Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6087–6101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Haklim Choi, Mi-Kyung Park, Paul J. Fraser, Hyeri Park, Sohyeon Geum, Jens Mühle, Jooil Kim, Ian Porter, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Bronwyn L. Dunse, Paul B. Krummel, Ray F. Weiss, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5157–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We observed 12-year continuous CH3Br pollution signals at Gosan and estimated anthropogenic CH3Br emissions in eastern China. The analysis revealed a significant discrepancy between top-down estimates and the bottom-up emissions from the fumigation usage reported to the United Nations Environment Programme, likely due to unreported or inaccurately reported fumigation usage. This result provides information to monitor international compliance with the Montreal Protocol.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Amy Foulds, James L. France, Patrick Barker, Peter Levy, Daniel Say, Adam Wisher, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3911–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying methane emissions from different sources is a key focus of current research. We present a method for estimating sectoral methane emissions that uses ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel methane. By incorporating variable ethane : methane emission ratios into this model, we produce emissions estimates with improved uncertainty characterisation. This method will be particularly useful for studying methane emissions in areas with complex distributions of sources.
Eric Saboya, Giulia Zazzeri, Heather Graven, Alistair J. Manning, and Sylvia Englund Michel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3595–3613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Continuous measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations and its carbon-13 isotope have been made in central London since early 2018. These measurements were used to evaluate methane emissions reported in global and UK-specific emission inventories for the London area. Compared to atmospheric methane measurements from March 2018 to October 2020, both inventories are under-reporting natural gas leakage for the London area.
Jens Mühle, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Kieran M. Stanley, Matthew Rigby, Luke M. Western, Jooil Kim, Sunyoung Park, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Simon O'Doherty, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3371–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3371-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) into the atmosphere have been increasing sharply since the early 2000s. These c-C4F8 emissions are highly correlated with the amount of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 produced to synthesize polytetrafluoroethylene (known for its non-stick properties) and related chemicals. From this process, c-C4F8 by-product is vented to the atmosphere. Avoiding these unnecessary c-C4F8 emissions could reduce the climate impact of this industry.
Dominique Rust, Ioannis Katharopoulos, Martin K. Vollmer, Stephan Henne, Simon O'Doherty, Daniel Say, Lukas Emmenegger, Renato Zenobi, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2447–2466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Artificial halocarbons contribute to ozone layer depletion and to global warming. We measured the atmospheric concentrations of halocarbons at the Beromünster tower, modelled the Swiss emissions, and compared the results to the internationally reported Swiss emissions inventory. For most of the halocarbons, we found good agreement, whereas one refrigerant might be overestimated in the inventory. In addition, we present first emission estimates of the newest types of halocarbons.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew Rigby, Yi Cao, and Noel Cressie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework for estimating the sources and sinks (flux) of carbon dioxide from satellite data. The framework is statistical and yields measures of uncertainty alongside all estimates of flux and other parameters in the underlying model. It also allows us to generate other insights, such as the size of errors and biases in the data. The primary aim of this research was to develop a fully statistical flux inversion framework for use by atmospheric scientists.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Grant Allen, Tim Arnold, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Hartmut Boesch, Anita L. Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Carole Helfter, Eiko Nemitz, Simon J. O'Doherty, Paul I. Palmer, Joseph R. Pitt, Chris Rennick, Daniel Say, Kieran M. Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Dickon Young, and Matt Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16257–16276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an evaluation of the UK's methane emissions between 2013 and 2020 using a network of tall tower measurement sites. We find emissions that are consistent in both magnitude and trend with the UK's reported emissions, with a declining trend driven by a decrease in emissions from England. The impact of various components of the modelling set-up on these findings are explored through a number of sensitivity studies.
Alistair J. Manning, Alison L. Redington, Daniel Say, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Jgor Arduini, Gerard Spain, Adam Wisher, Michela Maione, Tanja J. Schuck, Kieran Stanley, Stefan Reimann, Andreas Engel, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ray Gluckman, Peter N. Brown, John D. Watterson, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12739–12755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper estimates UK emissions of important greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)) using high-quality atmospheric observations and atmospheric modelling. We compare these estimates with those submitted by the UK to the United Nations. We conclude that global concentrations of these gases are still increasing. Our estimates for the UK are 73 % of those reported and that the UK emissions are now falling, demonstrating an impact of UK government policy.
Ruth E. Hill-Pearce, Aimee Hillier, Eric Mussell Webber, Kanokrat Charoenpornpukdee, Simon O'Doherty, Joachim Mohn, Christoph Zellweger, David R. Worton, and Paul J. Brewer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5447–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There is currently a need for gas reference materials with well-characterised delta values for monitoring N2O amount fractions. We present work towards the preparation of gas reference materials for calibration of in-field monitoring equipment, which target the WMO-GAW data quality objectives for comparability of amount fraction and demonstrate the stability of δ15Nα, δ15Nβ and δ18O values with pressure and effects of cylinder passivation.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Daniel Say, Alistair J. Manning, Luke M. Western, Dickon Young, Adam Wisher, Matthew Rigby, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Mühle, Christina M. Harth, Brendan Evans, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2149–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with exceedingly long lifetimes. We used atmospheric measurements from a global monitoring network to track the accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere. In the case of the two most abundant PFCs, recent measurements indicate that global emissions are increasing. In Europe, we used a model to estimate regional PFC emissions. Our results show that there was no significant decline in northwest European PFC emissions between 2010 and 2019.
Angharad C. Stell, Luke M. Western, Tomás Sherwen, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1717–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Although it is the second-most important greenhouse gas, our understanding of the atmospheric-methane budget is limited. The uncertainty highlights the need for new tools to investigate sources and sinks. Here, we use a Gaussian process emulator to efficiently approximate the response of atmospheric-methane observations to changes in the most uncertain emission or loss processes. With this new method, we rigorously quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric observations to budget uncertainties.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13041–13067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. This is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed data and surface measurements of methane concentrations as well as an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Cited articles
Bergamaschi, P., Karstens, U., Manning, A. J., Saunois, M., Tsuruta, A., Berchet, A., Vermeulen, A. T., Arnold, T., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Hammer, S., Levin, I., Schmidt, M., Ramonet, M., Lopez, M., Lavric, J., Aalto, T., Chen, H., Feist, D. G., Gerbig, C., Haszpra, L., Hermansen, O., Manca, G., Moncrieff, J., Meinhardt, F., Necki, J., Galkowski, M., O'Doherty, S., Paramonova, N., Scheeren, H. A., Steinbacher, M., and Dlugokencky, E.: Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 901–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-901-2018, 2018. a
Brown, P., Cardenas, L., Choudrie, S., Jones, L., Karagianni, E., MacCarthy,
J., Passant, N., Richmond, B., Smith, H., Thistlethwaite, G., Thomson, A.,
Turtle, L., and Wakeling, D.: UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2018:
Annual Report for Submission under the Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Tech. Rep., Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 978-0-9933975-6-1, https://naei.beis.gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=998 (last access: 28 March 2023),
2020. a
Butz, A., Galli, A., Hasekamp, O., Landgraf, J., Tol, P., and Aben, I.: TROPOMI
aboard Sentinel-5 Precursor: Prospective performance of CH4 retrievals for
aerosol and cirrus loaded atmospheres, Remote Sens. Environ., 120,
267–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.05.030, 2012. a
Cartwright, L., Zammit-Mangion, A., and Deutscher, N. M.: Emulation of greenhouse-gas sensitivities using variational autoencoders, Environmetrics, 34, e2754, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2754, 2023. a, b
Chicco, D., Warrens, M. J., and Jurman, G.: The coefficient of determination
R-squared is more informative than SMAPE, MAE, MAPE, MSE and RMSE in
regression analysis evaluation, PeerJ Computer Science, 7, e623,
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.623, 2021. a
Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., Lo Vullo, E., Solazzo, E.,
Monforti-Ferrario, F., Olivier, J., and Vignati, E.: EDGAR v6.0 Greenhouse
Gas Emissions, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [data set],
https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/97a67d67-c62e-4826-b873-9d972c4f670b (last access: 1 March 2023), 2021. a
Cullen, M. J. P.: The unified forecast/climate model, Meteorol. Mag.,
122, 81–94, 1993. a
Fasoli, B., Lin, J. C., Bowling, D. R., Mitchell, L., and Mendoza, D.: Simulating atmospheric tracer concentrations for spatially distributed receptors: updates to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model's R interface (STILT-R version 2), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2813–2824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2813-2018, 2018. a, b
Fillola, E.: Sample dataset for “A machine learning emulator for Lagrangian
particle dispersion model footprints”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7254330,
2022a. a
Fillola, E.: elenafillo/LPDM-emulation-trees: LPDM-emulation-trees v1.0 (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7254667, 2022b. a
Francom, D., Sansó, B., Bulaevskaya, V., Lucas, D., and Simpson, M.: Inferring
atmospheric release characteristics in a large computer experiment using
Bayesian adaptive splines, J. Am. Stat. Assoc.,
114, 1450–1465, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1562933, 2019. a, b
Friedman, J. H.: Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine,
Ann. Stat., 29, 1189–1232, https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1013203451, 2001. a, b
Friedman, J. H.: Stochastic gradient boosting, Comput. Stat. Data
An., 38, 367–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-9473(01)00065-2, 2002. a
Ganesan, A. L., Rigby, M., Zammit-Mangion, A., Manning, A. J., Prinn, R. G., Fraser, P. J., Harth, C. M., Kim, K.-R., Krummel, P. B., Li, S., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S. J., Park, S., Salameh, P. K., Steele, L. P., and Weiss, R. F.: Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3855–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014, 2014. a
Gunawardena, N., Pallotta, G., Simpson, M., and Lucas, D. D.: Machine learning
emulation of spatial deposition from a multi-physics ensemble of weather and
atmospheric transport models, Atmosphere, 12, 953,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080953, 2021. a, b
Harvey, N. J., Huntley, N., Dacre, H. F., Goldstein, M., Thomson, D., and Webster, H.: Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018. a
Hodson, T. O.: Root-mean-square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE): when to use them or not, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5481–5487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, 2022. a
Ivatt, P. D. and Evans, M. J.: Improving the prediction of an atmospheric chemistry transport model using gradient-boosted regression trees, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8063–8082, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8063-2020, 2020. a, b
Jones, A., Thomson, D., Hort, M., and Devenish, B.: The U.K. Met Office's
next-generation atmospheric dispersion model, NAME III, Air Pollution
Modeling and Its Application XVII, 580–589, ISBN 978-0-387-68854-1,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68854-1_62, 2007. a
Kaminski, T., Heimann, M., and Giering, R.: A coarse grid three-dimensional
global inverse model of the atmospheric transport: 1. Adjoint model and
Jacobian matrix, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104,
18535–18553, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jd900147, 1999. a
Lucas, D. D., Simpson, M., Cameron-Smith, P., and Baskett, R. L.: Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13521–13543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13521-2017, 2017. a, b
Lunt, M. F., Rigby, M., Ganesan, A. L., and Manning, A. J.: Estimation of trace gas fluxes with objectively determined basis functions using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3213–3229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3213-2016, 2016. a, b
Lunt, M. F., Manning, A. J., Allen, G., Arnold, T., Bauguitte, S. J.-B., Boesch, H., Ganesan, A. L., Grant, A., Helfter, C., Nemitz, E., O'Doherty, S. J., Palmer, P. I., Pitt, J. R., Rennick, C., Say, D., Stanley, K. M., Stavert, A. R., Young, D., and Rigby, M.: Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions (2013–2020), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16257–16276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Manning, A., Redington, A., O'Doherty, S., Say, D., Young, D., Arnold, T.,
Rennick, C., Rigby, M., Wisher, A., and Simmonds, P.: Long-Term Atmospheric
Measurement and Interpretation of Radiatively Active Trace Gases – Detailed
Report (September 2019 to August 2020), Tech. Rep., Department for Business,
Energy & Industrial Strategy, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government (last access 1 June 2022), 2020. a
Mendil, M., Leirens, S., Armand, P., and Duchenne, C.: Hazardous atmospheric
dispersion in urban areas: A Deep Learning approach for emergency pollution
forecast, Environ. Modell. Softw., 152, 105387,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105387, 2022. a
Met Office: Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Output from
the UK Variable (UKV) Resolution Part of the Met Office Unified Model (UM),
NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre [data set],
http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/292da1ccfebd650f6d123e53270016a8 (last access: 1 March 2022), 2013a. a, b
Met Office: Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Output from
the North Atlantic European (NAE) Part of the Met Office Unified Model (UM),
NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre [data set],
http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/220f1c04ffe39af29233b78c2cf2699a
(last access: 1 March 2022), 2013b. a, b
Molnar, C.: Global Model-Agnostic Methods: Permutation Feature Importance,
Christoph Molnar,
https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/feature-importance.html, last access: 1 July 2022. a
O'Doherty, S., Say, D., Stanley, K., Spain, G., Arnold, T., Rennick, C., Young,
D., Stavert, A., Grant, A., Ganesan, A., Pitt, J., Wisher, A., Wenger, A.,
and Garrard, N.: UK DECC (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change)
Network, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis [data set],
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/f5b38d1654d84b03ba79060746541e4f (last access: 1 March 2022), 2020. a, b
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel,
O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J.,
Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.:
Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn.
Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011. a
Peters, W., Miller, J. B., Whitaker, J., Denning, A. S., Hirsch, A., Krol,
M. C., Zupanski, D., Bruhwiler, L., and Tans, P. P.: An ensemble data
assimilation system to estimate CO2 surface fluxes from atmospheric trace gas
observations, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24304,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006157, 2005. a
Pisso, I., Sollum, E., Grythe, H., Kristiansen, N. I., Cassiani, M., Eckhardt, S., Arnold, D., Morton, D., Thompson, R. L., Groot Zwaaftink, C. D., Evangeliou, N., Sodemann, H., Haimberger, L., Henne, S., Brunner, D., Burkhart, J. F., Fouilloux, A., Brioude, J., Philipp, A., Seibert, P., and Stohl, A.: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 10.4, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4955–4997, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4955-2019, 2019. a
Prinn, R. G., Weiss, R. F., Arduini, J., Arnold, T., DeWitt, H. L., Fraser, P. J., Ganesan, A. L., Gasore, J., Harth, C. M., Hermansen, O., Kim, J., Krummel, P. B., Li, S., Loh, Z. M., Lunder, C. R., Maione, M., Manning, A. J., Miller, B. R., Mitrevski, B., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Park, S., Reimann, S., Rigby, M., Saito, T., Salameh, P. K., Schmidt, R., Simmonds, P. G., Steele, L. P., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H., Yao, B., Yokouchi, Y., Young, D., and Zhou, L.: History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 985–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-985-2018, 2018. a
Prinn, R. G., Weiss, R. F., Arduini, J., Arnold, T., Fraser, P. J., Ganesan,
A. L., Gasore, J., Harth, C. M., Hermansen, O., Kim, J., Krummel, P. B., Li,
S., Loh, Z. M., Lunder, C. R., Maione, M., Manning, A. J., Miller, B. R.,
Mitrevski, B., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Park, S., Reimann, S., Rigby, M.,
Salameh, P. K., Schmidt, R., Simmonds, P., Steele, L. P., Vollmer, M. K.,
Wang, R. H., and Young, D.: The ALE/GAGE/AGAGE Data Base [data set],
http://agage.mit.edu/data, last access: 1 March 2022. a, b
Rigby, M., Park, S., Saito, T., Western, L. M., Redington, A. L., Fang, X.,
Henne, S., Manning, A. J., Prinn, R. G., Dutton, G. S., Fraser, P. J.,
Ganesan, A. L., Hall, B. D., Harth, C. M., Kim, J., Kim, K.-R., Krummel,
P. B., Lee, T., Li, S., Liang, Q., Lunt, M. F., Montzka, S. A., Mühle, J.,
O’Doherty, S., Park, M.-K., Reimann, S., Salameh, P. K., Simmonds, P.,
Tunnicliffe, R. L., Weiss, R. F., Yokouchi, Y., and Young, D.: Increase in
CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations,
Nature, 569, 546–550, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019. a, b
Rigby, M., Tunnicliffe, R., Western, L., Chawner, H., Ganesan, A., Ramsden, A.,
Jones, G., Young, D., Ward, R., Stell, A., Nickless, A., and Pitt, J.:
ACRG-Bristol/acrg: ACRG v0.2.0 (v0.2.0), Zenodo [code],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6834888, 2022. a
Roten, D., Wu, D., Fasoli, B., Oda, T., and Lin, J. C.: An interpolation method
to reduce the computational time in the stochastic Lagrangian particle
dispersion modeling of spatially dense XCO2 retrievals, Earth and Space
Science, 8, e2020EA001343, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ea001343, 2021. a
Sayegh, A., Tate, J. E., and Ropkins, K.: Understanding how roadside
concentrations of NOX are influenced by the background levels, traffic
density, and meteorological conditions using boosted regression trees,
Atmos. Environ., 127, 163–175,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.12.024, 2016.
a
Stanley, K. M., Grant, A., O'Doherty, S., Young, D., Manning, A. J., Stavert, A. R., Spain, T. G., Salameh, P. K., Harth, C. M., Simmonds, P. G., Sturges, W. T., Oram, D. E., and Derwent, R. G.: Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1437–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1437-2018, 2018. a
Taylor, T. E., O'Dell, C. W., Crisp, D., Kuze, A., Lindqvist, H., Wennberg, P. O., Chatterjee, A., Gunson, M., Eldering, A., Fisher, B., Kiel, M., Nelson, R. R., Merrelli, A., Osterman, G., Chevallier, F., Palmer, P. I., Feng, L., Deutscher, N. M., Dubey, M. K., Feist, D. G., García, O. E., Griffith, D. W. T., Hase, F., Iraci, L. T., Kivi, R., Liu, C., De Mazière, M., Morino, I., Notholt, J., Oh, Y.-S., Ohyama, H., Pollard, D. F., Rettinger, M., Schneider, M., Roehl, C. M., Sha, M. K., Shiomi, K., Strong, K., Sussmann, R., Té, Y., Velazco, V. A., Vrekoussis, M., Warneke, T., and Wunch, D.: An 11-year record of XCO2 estimates derived from GOSAT measurements using the NASA ACOS version 9 retrieval algorithm, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 325–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-325-2022, 2022. a
Western, L. M., Sha, Z., Rigby, M., Ganesan, A. L., Manning, A. J., Stanley, K. M., O'Doherty, S. J., Young, D., and Rougier, J.: Bayesian spatio-temporal inference of trace gas emissions using an integrated nested Laplacian approximation and Gaussian Markov random fields, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2095–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2095-2020, 2020. a
Western, L. M., Ramsden, A. E., Ganesan, A. L., Boesch, H., Parker, R. J.,
Scarpelli, T. R., Tunnicliffe, R. L., and Rigby, M.: Estimates of North
African methane emissions from 2010 to 2017 using GOSAT observations,
Environ. Sci. Tech. Lett., 8, 626–632,
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.1c00327, 2021. a, b
Zammit-Mangion, A., Bertolacci, M., Fisher, J., Stavert, A., Rigby, M., Cao, Y., and Cressie, N.: WOMBAT v1.0: a fully Bayesian global flux-inversion framework, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022. a
Short summary
Lagrangian particle dispersion models are used extensively for the estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes using atmospheric observations. However, these models do not scale well as data volumes increase. Here, we develop a proof-of-concept machine learning emulator that can produce outputs similar to those of the dispersion model, but 50 000 times faster, using only meteorological inputs. This works demonstrates the potential of machine learning to accelerate GHG estimations across the globe.
Lagrangian particle dispersion models are used extensively for the estimation of greenhouse gas...