Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Model experiment description paper
05 Jan 2023
Model experiment description paper |  | 05 Jan 2023

The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) decadal prediction system

Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stefano Materia, Daniele Peano, Giusy Fedele, Riccardo Hénin, and Silvio Gualdi

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Cited articles

Allan, R. and Ansell, T.: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004, J. Climate, 19, 5816–5842, 2006. 
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y. O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W., and Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 1–10, 2020. 
Athanasiadis, P. J., Ogawa, F., Omrani, N. E., Keenlyside, N., Schiemann, R., Baker, A. J., Vidale, P. L., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Haarsma, R., Roberts, M., Roberts, C., Novak, L., and Gualdi, S.: Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet, J. Climate, 35, 3385–3406, 2022. 
Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S., and Navarra, A. J. J. O. C.: The double-ITCZ syndrome in coupled general circulation models: The role of large-scale vertical circulation regimes, J. Climate, 23, 1127–1145, 2010. 
Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Bellouin, N., Booth, B., Cagnazzo, C., van den Hurk, B., Keenlyside, N., Koenigk, T., Massonnet, F., Materia, S., and Weiss, M.: Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers, Rev. Geophys., 53, 165–202, 2015a. 
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions, obtained by constraining the initial condition of a dynamical model through a truthful estimate of the observed climate state, provide an accurate assessment of the near-term climate and are useful for informing decision-makers on future climate-related risks. The predictive skill for key variables is assessed from the operational decadal prediction system compared with non-initialized historical simulations so as to quantify the added value of initialization.