Articles | Volume 15, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0
Chahan M. Kropf
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland
Alessio Ciullo
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland
Laura Otth
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Simona Meiler
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland
Arun Rana
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Gemeinnützige GmbH, Adickesallee 32–34, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Emanuel Schmid
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Jamie W. McCaughey
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland
David N. Bresch
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions G. Ortner et al.
- Model parameter influence on probabilistic flood risk analysis R. Paulik et al.
- Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates S. Meiler et al.
- A generalized framework for designing open-source natural hazard parametric insurance C. Steinmann et al.
- Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data L. Riedel et al.
- A novel framework for the assessment of hydro-meteorological risks taking into account nature-based solutions L. Brogno et al.
- Impact-based risk assessment of coastal infrastructure adaptation to climate change: a case study of hurricane risk in Nova Scotia, Canada B. Ryan & D. Bristow
- Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance G. Bressan et al.
- Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk S. Meiler et al.
- OpenStreetMap for multi-faceted climate risk assessments E. Mühlhofer et al.
- The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk J. Kim et al.
- From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty C. Babich Morrow et al.
- Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks O. Higuera Roa et al.
- Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action P. Kam et al.
- Analyzing the relationship between meteorological changes and evapotranspiration trends in Gia Lai province, Central Highlands of Vietnam P. Ha et al.
- Creating probability maps for avalanche hazardous areas reflecting snowpack uncertainty updates T. Tanabe et al.
- Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate C. Kropf et al.
- Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment E. Schoepfer et al.
- Towards a practical multi-hazard interrelation classification: implications for assessing their impacts T. Wenzel et al.
- Climate-resilient strategy planning using the SWOT methodology: A case study of the Japanese wind energy sector L. Bachmann et al.
- Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication, and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production K. Schröter et al.
- Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models S. Meiler et al.
- Uncertainty Quantification for Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Analysis with Application to Valparaíso, Chile H. Rosero-Velásquez et al.
- Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate L. Severino et al.
- Beyond single company climate risk disclosure: event-based physical risk reporting V. Wattin Håkansson et al.
- How to provide actionable information on weather and climate impacts?–A summary of strategic, methodological, and technical perspectives T. Geiger et al.
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al.
- Climate Risk STAC: A living metadata catalog of geospatial data for climate risk assessments L. Reimann et al.
- A Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)-based synthetic event set of U.S. tornado outbreaks K. Malloy & M. Tippett
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions G. Ortner et al.
- Model parameter influence on probabilistic flood risk analysis R. Paulik et al.
- Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates S. Meiler et al.
- A generalized framework for designing open-source natural hazard parametric insurance C. Steinmann et al.
- Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data L. Riedel et al.
- A novel framework for the assessment of hydro-meteorological risks taking into account nature-based solutions L. Brogno et al.
- Impact-based risk assessment of coastal infrastructure adaptation to climate change: a case study of hurricane risk in Nova Scotia, Canada B. Ryan & D. Bristow
- Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance G. Bressan et al.
- Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk S. Meiler et al.
- OpenStreetMap for multi-faceted climate risk assessments E. Mühlhofer et al.
- The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk J. Kim et al.
- From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty C. Babich Morrow et al.
- Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks O. Higuera Roa et al.
- Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action P. Kam et al.
- Analyzing the relationship between meteorological changes and evapotranspiration trends in Gia Lai province, Central Highlands of Vietnam P. Ha et al.
- Creating probability maps for avalanche hazardous areas reflecting snowpack uncertainty updates T. Tanabe et al.
- Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate C. Kropf et al.
- Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment E. Schoepfer et al.
- Towards a practical multi-hazard interrelation classification: implications for assessing their impacts T. Wenzel et al.
- Climate-resilient strategy planning using the SWOT methodology: A case study of the Japanese wind energy sector L. Bachmann et al.
- Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication, and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production K. Schröter et al.
- Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models S. Meiler et al.
- Uncertainty Quantification for Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Analysis with Application to Valparaíso, Chile H. Rosero-Velásquez et al.
- Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate L. Severino et al.
- Beyond single company climate risk disclosure: event-based physical risk reporting V. Wattin Håkansson et al.
- How to provide actionable information on weather and climate impacts?–A summary of strategic, methodological, and technical perspectives T. Geiger et al.
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al.
- Climate Risk STAC: A living metadata catalog of geospatial data for climate risk assessments L. Reimann et al.
- A Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)-based synthetic event set of U.S. tornado outbreaks K. Malloy & M. Tippett
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 May 2026
Short summary
Mathematical models are approximations, and modellers need to understand and ideally quantify the arising uncertainties. Here, we describe and showcase the first, simple-to-use, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis module of the open-source and open-access climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA. This may help to enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers, help focus future research, and lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation.
Mathematical models are approximations, and modellers need to understand and ideally quantify...