Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0

Kropf, Chahan M.; Ciullo, Alessio; Otth, Laura; Meiler, Simona; Rana, Arun; Schmid, Emanuel; McCaughey, Jamie W.; Bresch, David N.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022

Articles | Volume 15, issue 18

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 18

Development and technical paper

|

23 Sep 2022

Development and technical paper |

| 23 Sep 2022

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0

Chahan M. Kropf, Alessio Ciullo, Laura Otth, Simona Meiler, Arun Rana, Emanuel Schmid, Jamie W. McCaughey, and David N. Bresch

Data sets

Probabilistic storm surge hazard event set for Vietnam on 30 arcsecond resolution (2020 and 2050) C. M. Kropf, Arun Rana, and Qinhan Zhu https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000566528

Model code and software

CLIMADA-project/climada_python: v3.1.0 Chahan M. Kropf, Emanuel Schmid, Gabriela Aznar-Siguan, Samuel Eberenz, Thomas Vogt, Carmen B. Steinmann, Thomas Röösli, Samuel Lüthi, Inga J. Sauer, Evelyn Mühlhofer, Jan Hartman, Benoit P. Guillod, Zélie Stalhandske, Alessio Ciullo, Chris Fairless, Pui Man (Mannie) Kam, wjan262, Simona Meiler, Rachel Bungener, Veronica Bozzini, Dario Stocker, and David N. Bresch https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5947271

Probabilistic storm surge hazard event set for Vietnam on 30 arcsecond resolution (2020 and 2050) C. M. Kropf, Arun Rana, and Qinhan Zhu https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000566528

Short summary

Mathematical models are approximations, and modellers need to understand and ideally quantify the arising uncertainties. Here, we describe and showcase the first, simple-to-use, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis module of the open-source and open-access climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA. This may help to enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers, help focus future research, and lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation.