Articles | Volume 15, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
29 Aug 2022
Model experiment description paper |
| 29 Aug 2022
| 29 Aug 2022
The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2
Stephen G. Yeager
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Nan Rosenbloom
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Anne A. Glanville
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Isla Simpson
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Hui Li
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Maria J. Molina
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Kristen Krumhardt
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Samuel Mogen
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of
Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Keith Lindsay
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Danica Lombardozzi
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Will Wieder
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Who M. Kim
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Jadwiga H. Richter
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Matthew Long
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Gokhan Danabasoglu
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
David Bailey
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Marika Holland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Nicole Lovenduski
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of
Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Warren G. Strand
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Teagan King
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal Tropospheric Distribution and Air‐Sea Fluxes of Atmospheric Potential Oxygen From Global Airborne Observations Y. Jin et al. 10.1029/2023GB007827
- On the relative role of east and west pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the prediction skill of Central Pacific NINO3.4 SST S. Lekshmi et al. 10.1007/s10236-023-01581-9
- Robust Changes in North America's Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability S. Kumar et al. 10.1029/2022EF003239
- The utility of simulated ocean chlorophyll observations: a case study with the Chlorophyll Observation Simulator Package (version 1) in CESMv2.2 G. Clow et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
- Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation N. Dunstone et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01063-2
- The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 S. Yeager et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
- Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system S. Yeager et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y
- From nutrients to fish: Impacts of mesoscale processes in a global CESM-FEISTY eddying ocean model framework K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103314
- Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes S. Mogen et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
- Multi‐Year Predictability of Global Sea Surface Temperature Using Model‐Analogs H. Ding & M. Alexander 10.1029/2023GL104097
- Forecasting the El Niño southern oscillation: physics, bias correction and combined models G. Reikard 10.1007/s00703-024-01038-8
- A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2 J. Fasullo et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adg1213
- Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales: Bottlenecks and Recommendations S. Minobe et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.855965
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal Tropospheric Distribution and Air‐Sea Fluxes of Atmospheric Potential Oxygen From Global Airborne Observations Y. Jin et al. 10.1029/2023GB007827
- On the relative role of east and west pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the prediction skill of Central Pacific NINO3.4 SST S. Lekshmi et al. 10.1007/s10236-023-01581-9
- Robust Changes in North America's Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability S. Kumar et al. 10.1029/2022EF003239
- The utility of simulated ocean chlorophyll observations: a case study with the Chlorophyll Observation Simulator Package (version 1) in CESMv2.2 G. Clow et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it I. Dunkl et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
- Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation N. Dunstone et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01063-2
- The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 S. Yeager et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
- Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system S. Yeager et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y
- From nutrients to fish: Impacts of mesoscale processes in a global CESM-FEISTY eddying ocean model framework K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103314
- Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes S. Mogen et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
- Multi‐Year Predictability of Global Sea Surface Temperature Using Model‐Analogs H. Ding & M. Alexander 10.1029/2023GL104097
- Forecasting the El Niño southern oscillation: physics, bias correction and combined models G. Reikard 10.1007/s00703-024-01038-8
- A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2 J. Fasullo et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adg1213
Latest update: 24 May 2025
Short summary
The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are...
