The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Yeager, Stephen G.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Glanville, Anne A.; Wu, Xian; Simpson, Isla; Li, Hui; Molina, Maria J.; Krumhardt, Kristen; Mogen, Samuel; Lindsay, Keith; Lombardozzi, Danica; Wieder, Will; Kim, Who M.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Long, Matthew; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bailey, David; Holland, Marika; Lovenduski, Nicole; Strand, Warren G.; King, Teagan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022

Articles | Volume 15, issue 16

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 16

Model experiment description paper

|

29 Aug 2022

Model experiment description paper |

| 29 Aug 2022

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King

Data sets

CESM2 SMYLE Dataset Stephen Yeager, Jadwiga Richter, and Kathy Pegion https://doi.org/10.26024/pwma-re41

The CESM2 Large Ensemble Dataset G. Danabasoglu, C. Deser, K.Rodgers, and A. Timmermann https://doi.org/10.26024/kgmp-c556

Model code and software

Analysis Code for journal article: "The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) Prediction System using the Community Earth System Model Version 2" Stephen Yeager https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6341789

CESM2 Model Code The CESM project https://doi.org/10.5065/D67H1H0V

Short summary

The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.