Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022
Model description paper
 | 
11 Mar 2022
Model description paper |  | 11 Mar 2022

From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3)

Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. a
Alexeeff, S. E., Nychka, D., Sain, S. R., and Tebaldi, C.: Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments, Climatic Change, 146, 319–333, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1809-8, 2018. a
Beusch, L.: Scripts (v1.0.0) for the study: “From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3)”, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6334911, 2022. a
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models with an emulator for regionally- optimized land temperature projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086812, 2020b. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
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Short summary
We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
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