Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
27 Oct 2021
Methods for assessment of models |
| 27 Oct 2021
| 27 Oct 2021
Object-based analysis of simulated thunderstorms in Switzerland: application and validation of automated thunderstorm tracking with simulation data
Timothy H. Raupach
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
present address: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Andrey Martynov
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Luca Nisi
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno, Switzerland
Alessandro Hering
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno, Switzerland
Yannick Barton
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Olivia Martius
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Laboratory for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Viswanathan Bringi, Kumar Vijay Mishra, Merhala Thurai, Patrick C. Kennedy, and Timothy H. Raupach
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4727–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4727-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The raindrop size distribution and its moments are fundamental in many areas, such as radar measurement of rainfall using polarimetry and numerical modeling of the microphysical processes of rain formation and evolution. We develop a technique which uses advanced radar measurements and complete drop size distributions using two collocated instruments to retrieve the lower-order moments such as total drop concentration and rain water content. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept using a case study.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Aart Overeem, Timothy H. Raupach, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4465–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The results show the potential of such networks as complementary rainfall measurements for more robust networks (e.g. radars, gauges, satellites).
Timothy H. Raupach and Alexis Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The raindrop size distribution (DSD) describes the microstructure of rain. It is required knowledge for weather radar applications and has broad applicability to studies of rainfall processes, including weather models and rain retrieval algorithms. We present a new technique for estimating the DSD from polarimetric radar data. The new method was tested in three different domains, and its performance was found to be similar to and often better than an an existing DSD retrieval method.
Guillaume Nord, Brice Boudevillain, Alexis Berne, Flora Branger, Isabelle Braud, Guillaume Dramais, Simon Gérard, Jérôme Le Coz, Cédric Legoût, Gilles Molinié, Joel Van Baelen, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Julien Andrieu, Coralie Aubert, Martin Calianno, Guy Delrieu, Jacopo Grazioli, Sahar Hachani, Ivan Horner, Jessica Huza, Raphaël Le Boursicaud, Timothy H. Raupach, Adriaan J. Teuling, Magdalena Uber, Béatrice Vincendon, and Annette Wijbrans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 221–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A high space–time resolution dataset linking hydrometeorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Ardèche region (France) is presented. This region is subject to precipitating systems of Mediterranean origin, which can result in significant rainfall amount. The data presented cover a period of 4 years (2011–2014) and aim at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods.
T. H. Raupach and A. Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-343-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using the 2-D video disdrometer (2DVD) as a reference, a technique to correct the spectra of drop size distribution (DSD) measured by Parsivel disdrometers (1st and 2nd generation) is proposed. The measured velocities and equivolume diameters are corrected to better match those from the 2DVD. The correction is evaluated using data from southern France and the Swiss Plateau. It appears to be similar for both climatologies, and to improve the consistency with colocated 2DVDs and rain gauges.
J. Grazioli, D. Tuia, S. Monhart, M. Schneebeli, T. Raupach, and A. Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2869-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2869-2014, 2014
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns that lead to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, limited by moisture and overall favourable for thunderstorms; consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of the bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep-learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Markus Mosimann, Martina Kauzlaric, Olivia Martius, and Andreas Paul Zischg
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 26, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, 2025
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the mechanisms that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Europe in a comparative framework. By analysing weather data, we found that long spells in Southwestern Europe are typically preceded by dry soil conditions and driven by multiple persistence-inducing mechanisms. In contrast, short spells occur in a more transient atmospheric situation and exhibit fewer drivers. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their prediction.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Jérôme Kopp, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4529–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a verification of two products based on weather radars to detect the presence of hail and estimate its size. Radar products are remote detection of hail, so they must be verified against ground-based observations. We use reports from users of the Swiss Weather Services phone app to do the verification. We found that the product estimating the presence of hail provides fair results but that it should be recalibrated and that estimating the hail size with radar is more challenging.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Martin Lainer, Killian P. Brennan, Alessandro Hering, Jérôme Kopp, Samuel Monhart, Daniel Wolfensberger, and Urs Germann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2539–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses deep learning (the Mask R-CNN model) on drone-based photogrammetric data of hail on the ground to estimate hail size distributions (HSDs). Traditional hail sensors' limited areas complicate the full HSD retrieval. The HSD of a supercell event on 20 June 2021 is retrieved and contains > 18 000 hailstones. The HSD is compared to automatic hail sensor measurements and those of weather-radar-based MESHS. Investigations into ground hail melting are performed by five drone flights.
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 955–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Jérôme Kopp, Agostino Manzato, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3487–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first study of extended field observations made by a network of 80 automatic hail sensors from Switzerland. The sensors record the exact timing of hailstone impacts, providing valuable information about the local duration of hailfall. We found that the majority of hailfalls lasts just a few minutes and that most hailstones, including the largest, fall during a first phase of high hailstone density, while a few remaining and smaller hailstones fall in a second low-density phase.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Daniel Steinfeld, Adrian Peter, Olivia Martius, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the performance of various fire weather indices to predict wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. We find that indices responding readily to weather changes have the best performance during spring; in the summer and autumn seasons, indices that describe persistent hot and dry conditions perform best. We demonstrate that a logistic regression model trained on local historical fire activity can outperform existing fire weather indices.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Viswanathan Bringi, Kumar Vijay Mishra, Merhala Thurai, Patrick C. Kennedy, and Timothy H. Raupach
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4727–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4727-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The raindrop size distribution and its moments are fundamental in many areas, such as radar measurement of rainfall using polarimetry and numerical modeling of the microphysical processes of rain formation and evolution. We develop a technique which uses advanced radar measurements and complete drop size distributions using two collocated instruments to retrieve the lower-order moments such as total drop concentration and rain water content. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept using a case study.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Nicolau Pineda, Nikola Besic, Jacopo Grazioli, Alessandro Hering, Oscar A. van der Velde, David Romero, Antonio Sunjerga, Amirhossein Mostajabi, Mohammad Azadifar, Marcos Rubinstein, Joan Montanyà, Urs Germann, and Farhad Rachidi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5573–5591, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5573-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5573-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an analysis of the lightning production of convective cells. Polarimetric weather radar data were used to identify and characterize the convective cells while lightning was detected using the EUCLID network and a lightning mapping array deployed during the summer of 2017 in the northeastern part of Switzerland. In it we show that there is a good correlation between the height of the rimed-particle column and the intensity of the lightning activity in the convective cell.
Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Nicolau Pineda, Nikola Besic, Jacopo Grazioli, Alessandro Hering, Oscar A. van der Velde, David Romero, Antonio Sunjerga, Amirhossein Mostajabi, Mohammad Azadifar, Marcos Rubinstein, Joan Montanyà, Urs Germann, and Farhad Rachidi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2881–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2881-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an analysis of a large dataset of lightning and polarimetric weather radar data collected over the course of a lightning measurement campaign that took place in the summer of 2017 in the area surrounding Säntis in northeastern Switzerland. We show that polarimetric weather radar data can be helpful in determining regions where lightning is more likely to occur, which is a first step towards a lightning nowcasting system.
Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Aart Overeem, Timothy H. Raupach, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4465–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4465-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The results show the potential of such networks as complementary rainfall measurements for more robust networks (e.g. radars, gauges, satellites).
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Timothy H. Raupach and Alexis Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The raindrop size distribution (DSD) describes the microstructure of rain. It is required knowledge for weather radar applications and has broad applicability to studies of rainfall processes, including weather models and rain retrieval algorithms. We present a new technique for estimating the DSD from polarimetric radar data. The new method was tested in three different domains, and its performance was found to be similar to and often better than an an existing DSD retrieval method.
Guillaume Nord, Brice Boudevillain, Alexis Berne, Flora Branger, Isabelle Braud, Guillaume Dramais, Simon Gérard, Jérôme Le Coz, Cédric Legoût, Gilles Molinié, Joel Van Baelen, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Julien Andrieu, Coralie Aubert, Martin Calianno, Guy Delrieu, Jacopo Grazioli, Sahar Hachani, Ivan Horner, Jessica Huza, Raphaël Le Boursicaud, Timothy H. Raupach, Adriaan J. Teuling, Magdalena Uber, Béatrice Vincendon, and Annette Wijbrans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 221–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-221-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A high space–time resolution dataset linking hydrometeorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Ardèche region (France) is presented. This region is subject to precipitating systems of Mediterranean origin, which can result in significant rainfall amount. The data presented cover a period of 4 years (2011–2014) and aim at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods.
Luca Panziera, Marco Gabella, Stefano Zanini, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Alexis Berne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2317–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2317-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a novel system to issue heavy rainfall alerts for predefined geographical regions by evaluating the sum of precipitation fallen in the immediate past and expected in the near future. In order to objectively define the thresholds for the alerts, an extreme rainfall analysis for the 159 regions used for official warnings in Switzerland was developed. It is shown that the system has additional lead time with respect to thunderstorm tracking tools targeted for convective storms.
T. H. Raupach and A. Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-343-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using the 2-D video disdrometer (2DVD) as a reference, a technique to correct the spectra of drop size distribution (DSD) measured by Parsivel disdrometers (1st and 2nd generation) is proposed. The measured velocities and equivolume diameters are corrected to better match those from the 2DVD. The correction is evaluated using data from southern France and the Swiss Plateau. It appears to be similar for both climatologies, and to improve the consistency with colocated 2DVDs and rain gauges.
J. Grazioli, D. Tuia, S. Monhart, M. Schneebeli, T. Raupach, and A. Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2869-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2869-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
The sensitivity of aerosol data assimilation to vertical profiles: case study of dust storm assimilation with LOTOS-EUROS v2.2
Knowledge-inspired fusion strategies for the inference of PM2.5 values with a neural network
Tuning the ICON-A 2.6.4 climate model with machine-learning-based emulators and history matching
A novel method for quantifying the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 in Beijing (2013–2020): combining machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis
Quantification of CO2 hotspot emissions from OCO-3 SAM CO2 satellite images using deep learning methods
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using the spectral bin model (version 1DSBM-19M): comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
UA-ICON with the NWP physics package (version ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Using a data-driven statistical model to better evaluate surface turbulent heat fluxes in weather and climate numerical models: a demonstration study
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
A REtrieval Method for optical and physical Aerosol Properties in the stratosphere (REMAPv1)
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Generalized local fractions – a method for the calculation of sensitivities to emissions from multiple sources for chemically active species, illustrated using the EMEP MSC-W model (rv5.5)
SanDyPALM v1.0: Static and Dynamic Drivers for the PALM-4U Model to Facilitate Realistic Urban Microclimate Simulations
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
Accurate and fast prediction of radioactive pollution by Kriging coupled with Auto-Associative Models
Mitigating Hail Overforecasting in the 2-Moment Milbrandt-Yau Microphysics Scheme (v2.25.2_beta_04) in WRF (v4.5.1) by Incorporating the Graupel Spongy Wet Growth Process (MY2_GSWG v1.0)
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
Quantifying uncertainties in satellite NO2 superobservations for data assimilation and model evaluation
ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Comprehensive evaluation of iAMAS (v1.0) in simulating Antarctic meteorological fields with observations and reanalysis
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Ting Yang, Xi Chen, Arjo Segers, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Yixuan Gu, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Hong Liao, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3781–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3707–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at the ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using artificial neural networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison between network architectures and information fusion methods allows for the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Peter Wind and Willem van Caspel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a numerical method to assess the origin of air pollution. Combined with a numerical air pollution transport and chemistry model, it can follow the contributions from a large number of emission sources. The result is a series of maps that give the relative contributions from for example all European countries at each point.
Julian Vogel, Sebastian Stadler, Ganesh Chockalingam, Afshin Afshari, Johanna Henning, and Matthias Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a toolkit to simplify input data creation for the urban microclimate model PALM-4U. It introduces novel methods to automate the use of open data sources. Our analysis of four test cases created from different geographic data sources shows variations in temperature, humidity, and wind speed, influenced by data quality. Validation indicates that the automated methods yield results comparable to expert-driven approaches, facilitating user-friendly urban climate modeling.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Raphaël Périllat, Sylvain Girard, and Irène Korsakissok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to improve decision-making during nuclear crises by predicting the spread of radiation more efficiently. Existing approaches are often too slow, especially when analyzing complex data like radiation maps. Our method combines techniques to simplify these maps and predict them quickly using statistical tools. This approach could help authorities respond faster and more accurately in emergencies, reducing risks to the population and the environment.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Qike Yang, Chun Zhao, Jiawang Feng, Gudongze Li, Jun Gu, Zihan Xia, Mingyue Xu, and Zining Yang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of unstructured meshes using the iAMAS model over Antarctica, encompassing both surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Comparison with ERA5 and observational data reveals that the iAMAS model performs well in simulating the Antarctic atmosphere; iAMAS demonstrates comparable, and in some cases superior, performance in simulating temperature and wind speed in East Antarctica when compared to ERA5.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Cited articles
Adams-Selin, R. D. and Ziegler, C. L.: Forecasting Hail Using a One-Dimensional
Hail Growth Model within WRF, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4919–4939,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0027.1, 2016. a, b
Allen, J. T.: Climate change and severe thunderstorms, in: Oxford Research
Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press,
https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.62, 2018. a, b
Bally, J.: The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning Automated
Thunderstorm Tracks into Severe Weather Warnings, Weather Forecast., 19,
64–72, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0064:TTIFST>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Barton, Y., Sideris, I. V., Raupach, T. H., Gabella, M., Germann, U., and
Martius, O.: A multi-year assessment of sub-hourly gridded precipitation for
Switzerland based on a blended radar – Rain-gauge dataset, Int. J.
Climatol., 40, 5208–5222, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6514, 2020. a
Brimelow, J. C., Reuter, G. W., and Poolman, E. R.: Modeling Maximum Hail Size
in Alberta Thunderstorms, Weather Forecast., 17, 1048–1062,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<1048:MMHSIA>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Bryan, G. H. and Morrison, H.: Sensitivity of a Simulated Squall Line to
Horizontal Resolution and Parameterization of Microphysics, Mon. Weather
Rev., 140, 202–225, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00046.1, 2012. a
Bryan, G. H., Wyngaard, J. C., and Fritsch, J. M.: Resolution Requirements for
the Simulation of Deep Moist Convection, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 2394–2416,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2394:RRFTSO>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Buizza, R., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Bormann, N., Bozzo, A., Haiden, T.,
Hogan, R., Hólm, E., Radnoti, G., Richardson, D., and Sleigh, M.: IFS
Cycle 43r3 brings model and assimilation updates, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, 18–22,
https://doi.org/10.21957/76t4e1, 2017. a
Caine, S., Lane, T. P., May, P. T., Jakob, C., Siems, S. T., Manton, M. J., and
Pinto, J.: Statistical Assessment of Tropical Convection-Permitting Model
Simulations Using a Cell-Tracking Algorithm, Mon. Weather Rev., 141,
557–581, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00274.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model
with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model
Implementation and Sensitivity, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Chevuturi, A., Dimri, A. P., Das, S., Kumar, A., and Niyogi, D.: Numerical
simulation of an intense precipitation event over Rudraprayag in the
central Himalayas during 13–14 September 2012, J. Earth. Syst. Sci.,
124, 1545–1561, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0622-5, 2015. a
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe,
M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change:
Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J.,
Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013. a
Crane, R. K.: Automatic Cell Detection and Tracking, IEEE T. Geosci. Elect.,
17, 250–262, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGE.1979.294654, 1979. a, b
Davis, C., Brown, B., and Bullock, R.: Object-Based Verification of
Precipitation Forecasts. Part I: Methodology and Application to Mesoscale
Rain Areas, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1772–1784, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3145.1,
2006a. a
Davis, C., Brown, B., and Bullock, R.: Object-Based Verification of
Precipitation Forecasts. Part II: Application to Convective Rain Systems,
Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1785–1795, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3146.1,
2006b. a
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M., and Trapp, R. J.: Robust increases in severe
thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16361–16366, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307758110, 2013. a
Dixon, M. and Seed, A.: Developments in echo tracking-enhancing TITAN, in:
Proceedings of the ERAD2014 – The Eighth European Conference on Radar in
Meteorology and Hydrology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, vol. 15, 2014. a
Done, J., Davis, C. A., and Weisman, M.: The next generation of NWP: explicit
forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF)
model, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5, 110–117, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.72, 2004. a, b
Dudhia, J.: Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon
Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46,
3077–3107, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Ebert, E. E.: Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close
Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 24, 1498–1510,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222251.1, 2009. a, b
ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), cycle 43r3, available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation/evolution-ifs/cycles/cycle-43r3 (last access: 18 October 2021), 2017. a
Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Houze Jr., R. A., Hagos, S., Hardin, J., Yang, Q., Han,
B., and Fan, J.: Structure and Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems:
Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics in Convection-Permitting Simulations Over
the United States, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1470–1494,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001305, 2018. a, b
Feng, Z., Houze, R. A., Leung, L. R., Song, F., Hardin, J. C., Wang, J.,
Gustafson, W. I., and Homeyer, C. R.: Spatiotemporal characteristics and
large-scale environments of mesoscale convective systems east of the Rocky
Mountains, J. Climate, 32, 7303–7328, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0137.1,
2019. a
Feng, Z., Song, F., Sakaguchi, K., and Leung, L. R.: Evaluation of Mesoscale
Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and
Results from MPAS-CAM over the United States, J. Climate, 34,
2611–2633, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0136.1, 2021. a, b
Foris, D. V., Karacostas, T. S., Flocas, A. A., and Makrogiannis, T. I.:
Hailstorm in the region of Central Macedonia, Greece: a kinematic study,
Meteorol. Z., 15, 317–326, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0134, 2006. a
Fridlind, A. M., van Lier-Walqui, M., Collis, S., Giangrande, S. E., Jackson, R. C., Li, X., Matsui, T., Orville, R., Picel, M. H., Rosenfeld, D., Ryzhkov, A., Weitz, R., and Zhang, P.: Use of polarimetric radar measurements to constrain simulated convective cell evolution: a pilot study with Lagrangian tracking, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2979–3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2979-2019, 2019. a, b
Gilleland, E., Ahijevych, D. A., Brown, B. G., and Ebert, E. E.: Verifying
Forecasts Spatially, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1365–1376,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2819.1, 2010. a, b, c
Han, L., Fu, S., Zhao, L., Zheng, Y., Wang, H., and Lin, Y.: 3D Convective
Storm Identification, Tracking, and Forecasting–An Enhanced TITAN
Algorithm, J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 26, 719–732,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JTECHA1084.1, 2009. a
Hartmann, D., Tank, A. K., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L., Brönnimann, S.,
Charabi, Y., Dentener, F., Dlugokencky, E., Easterling, D., Kaplan, A.,
Soden, B., Thorne, P., Wild, M., and Zhai, P.: Observations: Atmosphere and
Surface, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor,
M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
2013. a
Heikenfeld, M., Marinescu, P. J., Christensen, M., Watson-Parris, D., Senf, F., van den Heever, S. C., and Stier, P.: tobac 1.2: towards a flexible framework for tracking and analysis of clouds in diverse datasets, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4551–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, 2019. a, b
Hering, A. M., Morel, C., Galli, G., Sénési, S., Ambrosetti, P., and
Boscacci, M.: Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Alpine region using a radar
based adaptive thresholding scheme, in: Proceedings of the 3rd European
Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology, 206–211, Copernicus,
available at: http://www.copernicus.org/erad/2004/online/ERAD04_P_206.pdf
(last access: 18 August 2018), 2004. a, b, c, d, e
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.: A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an
Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 134,
2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006. a
Houze Jr., R. A.: Orographic effects on precipitating clouds, Rev. Geophys.,
50, RG1001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000365, 2012. a
Houze, R. A., Schmid, W., Fovell, R. G., and Schiesser, H.-H.: Hailstorms in
Switzerland: Left Movers, Right Movers, and False Hooks, Mon. Weather Rev.,
121, 3345–3370, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<3345:HISLMR>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a, b
Jiménez, P. A., Dudhia, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Montávez,
J. P., and García-Bustamante, E.: A Revised Scheme for the WRF Surface
Layer Formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012. a
Kain, J. S., Weiss, S. J., Levit, J. J., Baldwin, M. E., and Bright, D. R.:
Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the
Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004,
Weather Forecast., 21, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF906.1, 2006. a
LROSE: LROSE – The Lidar Radar Open Software Environment,
available at: https://github.com/NCAR/lrose-core, git version
lrose-cyclone-20190801-167-g85b01e9a3, last access: 12 November 2019. a
Madonna, E., Ginsbourger, D., and Martius, O.: A Poisson regression approach to
model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale
environmental variables, Atmos. Res., 203, 261–274,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.11.024, 2018. a
Martinov, A., Raupach, T. H., and Martius, O.: WRF model fields for TITAN
tracking of simulated storms, Morrison microphysics scheme, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4784820, 2021a. a
Martinov, A., Raupach, T. H., and Martius, O.: WRF model fields for TITAN
tracking of simulated storms, P3 microphysics scheme, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4808873, 2021b. a
Martinov, A., Raupach, T. H., and Martius, O.: WRF model fields for TITAN
tracking of simulated storms, Thompson microphysics scheme, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4784811, 2021c. a
Martius, O., Hering, A., Kunz, M., Manzato, A., Mohr, S., Nisi, L., and
Trefalt, S.: Challenges and Recent Advances in Hail Research, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, ES51–ES54,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0207.1, 2018. a
MétéoSuisse: Bulletin climatologique juin 2018, Tech. rep.,
MétéoSuisse, Genève,
available at: https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/content/dam/meteoswiss/fr/service-und-publikationen/publikationen/doc/201806_f.pdf,
last access: 26 November 2018a. a
MétéoSuisse: Bulletin climatologique été 2018, Tech. rep.,
MétéoSuisse, Genève,
available at: https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/content/dam/meteoswiss/fr/service-und-publikationen/publikationen/doc/2018_JJA_f.pdf,
last access: 20 December 2018c. a
MeteoSwiss: Contact – MeteoSwiss,
available at: https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/home/about-us/contact.html,
last access: 27 May 2021. a
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.:
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated
correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102,
16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997. a
Morrison, H. and Milbrandt, J. A.: Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based
on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part I: Scheme
Description and Idealized Tests, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 287–311,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0065.1, 2015. a
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of Cloud Microphysics on
the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall
Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137,
991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1, 2009. a
Muñoz, C., Wang, L.-P., and Willems, P.: Enhanced object-based tracking
algorithm for convective rain storms and cells, Atmos. Res., 201, 144–158,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.10.027, 2018. a
NCL6.4: The NCAR Command Language, version
6.4.0, UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD [code], Boulder, Colorado, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5, 2017. a
Nisi, L., Ambrosetti, P., and Clementi, L.: Nowcasting severe convection in the
Alpine region: the COALITION approach, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140,
1684–1699, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2249, 2014. a
Peyraud, L.: Analysis of the 18 July 2005 Tornadic Supercell over the Lake
Geneva Region, Weather Forecast., 28, 1524–1551,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00022.1, 2013. a
Pinto, J., Phillips, C., Steiner, M., Rasmussen, R., Oien, N., Dixon, M., Wang,
W., and Weisman, M.: Assessment of the statistical characteristics of
thunderstorms simulated with the WRF model using convection-permitting
resolution, in: Proceedings of the 33rd Conf. on Radar Meteorology, Cairns,
Australia, Amer. Meteorol. Soc.,
available at: https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/123712.pdf (last access: 14
August 2018), 2007. a, b
Powers, J. G., Klemp, J. B., Skamarock, W. C., Davis, C. A., Dudhia, J., Gill,
D. O., Coen, J. L., Gochis, D. J., Ahmadov, R., Peckham, S. E., Grell, G. A.,
Michalakes, J., Trahan, S., Benjamin, S. G., Alexander, C. R., Dimego, G. J.,
Wang, W., Schwartz, C. S., Romine, G. S., Liu, Z., Snyder, C., Chen, F.,
Barlage, M. J., Yu, W., and Duda, M. G.: The Weather Research and
Forecasting Model: Overview, System Efforts, and Future Directions, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1717–1737, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00308.1, 2017. a
Punge, H. and Kunz, M.: Hail observations and hailstorm characteristics in
Europe: A review, Atmos. Res., 176–177, 159–184,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.012, 2016. a
Punge, H., Bedka, K., Kunz, M., and Reinbold, A.: Hail frequency estimation
across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the
ERA-INTERIM reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 198, 34–43,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.025, 2017. a
Raupach, T. H., Martinov, A., and Martius, O.: Thunderstorm tracks and hail
properties derived from WRF simulation data for May 2018 over Switzerland, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4638486, 2021a. a
Raupach, T. H., Martius, O., Allen, J. T., Kunz, M., Lasher-Trapp, S., Mohr,
S., Rasmussen, K. L., Trapp, R. J., and Zhang, Q.: The effects of climate
change on hailstorms, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 213–226,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00133-9, 2021b. a, b
Raupach, T. H., Martynov, A., and Martius, O.: traupach/modified_LROSE_utils:
Initial release, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4667843, 2021c. a
Raupach, T. H., Martynov, A., and Martius, O.: traupach/stormtrack: Initial
release, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4667884, 2021d. a, b
Raupach, T. H., Martynov, A., Nisi, L., Hering, A., Barton, Y., and Martius,
O.: R Markdown for manuscript describing TITAN storm tracking of simulated
thunderstorms, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5177686, 2021e. a
Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Bauer,
H.-S., Behrendt, A., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S.,
Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann,
U., Gorgas, T., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Keil, C., Liniger, M. A., Marsigli, C.,
McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montaini, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa,
A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M.,
Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zappa, M.:
MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the
Alpine Region, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1321–1336,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2776.1, 2009. a
Schemm, S., Nisi, L., Martinov, A., Leuenberger, D., and Martius, O.: On the
link between cold fronts and hail in Switzerland, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17,
315–325, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.660, 2016. a
Schmid, W., Schiesser, H.-H., and Bauer-Messmer, B.: Supercell storms in
Switzerland: case studies and implications for nowcasting severe winds with
Doppler radar, Meteorol. Appl., 4, 49–67, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482797000388,
1997. a
Schmid, W., Schiesser, H.-H., Furger, M., and Jenni, M.: The Origin of Severe
Winds in a Tornadic Bow-Echo Storm over Northern Switzerland, Mon. Weather
Rev., 128, 192–207, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0192:TOOSWI>2.0.CO;2,
2000. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J.,
Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Barker, D., and yu Huang, X.: A
Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 4, Tech. rep., National
Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR technical note NCAR/TN-556+STR, Boulder, Colorado, USA,
https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97, 2019. a, b
Song, F., Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Houze Jr, R. A., Wang, J., Hardin, J., and
Homeyer, C. R.: Contrasting spring and summer large-scale environments
associated with mesoscale convective systems over the US Great Plains,
J. Climate, 32, 6749–6767, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0839.1, 2019.
a
Speirs, P., Gabella, M., and Berne, A.: A Comparison between the GPM
Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar and Ground-Based Radar Precipitation Rate
Estimates in the Swiss Alps and Plateau, J. Hydrometeorol.,
18, 1247–1269, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0085.1, 2017. a
Sturmarchiv Schweiz: Sturmarchiv Schweiz – Swiss Severe Weather Database
(SSWD), available at: http://www.sturmarchiv.ch/index.php/Hagel#2018,
hagel, Schweizer Sturmarchiv, last access: 12 December 2019. a
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit
Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme.
Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather
Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008. a
Tippett, M. K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Climate and
Hazardous Convective Weather, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 1, 60–73,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6, 2015. a
TITAN system within LROSE: TITAN – Thunderstorm Identification Tracking
Analysis & Nowcasting,
available at: https://github.com/NCAR/lrose-titan, last access: 8 May 2019. a
Trefalt, S., Martynov, A., Barras, H., Besic, N., Hering, A. M., Lenggenhager,
S., Noti, P., Röthlisberger, M., Schemm, S., Germann, U., and Martius, O.: A
severe hail storm in complex topography in Switzerland – Observations and
processes, Atmos. Res., 209, 76–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.03.007,
2018. a
Valcke, S., Balaji, V., Craig, A., DeLuca, C., Dunlap, R., Ford, R. W., Jacob, R., Larson, J., O'Kuinghttons, R., Riley, G. D., and Vertenstein, M.: Coupling technologies for Earth System Modelling, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1589–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1589-2012, 2012. a
van Delden, A.: The synoptic setting of thunderstorms in western Europe,
Atmos. Res., 56, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00092-2, 2001. a
Wang, W., Bruyère, C., Duda, M., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Kavulich, M., Werner,
K., Chen, M., Lin, H.-C., Michalakes, J., Rizvi, S., Zhang, X., Berner, J.,
Munoz-Esparza, D., Reen, B., Ha, S., and Fossell, K.: Weather research and
forecasting model ARW version 4 modeling system user's guide,
available at: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide_V4/WRFUsersGuide.pdf
(last access: 14 January 2019), 2018. a, b
Weisman, M. L., Skamarock, W. C., and Klemp, J. B.: The Resolution Dependence
of Explicitly Modeled Convective Systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 527–548,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0527:TRDOEM>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a, b
Willemse, S.: A statistical analysis and climatological interpretation of
hailstorms in Switzerland, Doctoral Thesis, ETH Zurich, Zurich,
Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-001486581, 1995. a, b
Short summary
When simulated thunderstorms are compared to observations or other simulations, a match between overall storm properties is often more important than exact matches to individual storms. We tested a comparison method that uses a thunderstorm tracking algorithm to characterise simulated storms. For May 2018 in Switzerland, the method produced reasonable matches to independent observations for most storm properties, showing its feasibility for summarising simulated storms over mountainous terrain.
When simulated thunderstorms are compared to observations or other simulations, a match between...
