Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5843-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5843-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
24 Sep 2021
Model description paper |
| 24 Sep 2021
fenics_ice 1.0: a framework for quantifying initialization uncertainty for time-dependent ice sheet models
Conrad P. Koziol
School of GeoSciences, Univ. of Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Joe A. Todd
School of GeoSciences, Univ. of Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
School of GeoSciences, Univ. of Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
James R. Maddison
School of Mathematics and
Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Univ. of Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Related authors
Conrad P. Koziol and Neil Arnold
The Cryosphere, 12, 971–991, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-971-2018, 2018
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We model the summer acceleration of ice velocities at a land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Model results compare favourably against GPS data, reflecting positively on the model components and the datasets used. When we run the model into the future, we find that summer velocities increase with increasing levels of surface melt but that changes in annual velocities may be limited.
Conrad P. Koziol and Neil Arnold
The Cryosphere, 11, 2783–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2783-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2783-2017, 2017
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We develop a new ice sheet model and couple it to an existing subglacial hydrology model. A workflow for initializing the coupled model at the start of summer is proposed and demonstrated on the Russell Glacier area of Western Greenland. This is a first step towards modelling ice velocities during the summer.
Beatriz Recinos, Daniel Goldberg, James R. Maddison, and Joe Todd
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-27, 2023
Preprint under review for TC
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Ice sheet models generate forecasts of ice sheet mass loss; a significant contributor to sea-level rise, thus capturing the complete range of possible projections of mass loss is of critical societal importance. Here we add to data assimilation techniques commonly used in ice-sheet modelling, a Bayesian inference approach and fully characterise calibration uncertainty. We successfully propagate this type of error onto sea-level rise projections of three ice streams in West Antarctica.
Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, and Daniel Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3867–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, 2022
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Hills and valleys hidden under the ice of Thwaites Glacier have an impact on ice flow and future ice loss, but there are not many three-dimensional observations of their location or size. We apply a mathematical theory to new high-resolution observations of the ice surface to predict the bed topography beneath the ice. There is a good correlation with ice-penetrating radar observations. The method may be useful in areas with few direct observations or as a further constraint for other methods.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
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Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Conrad P. Koziol and Neil Arnold
The Cryosphere, 12, 971–991, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-971-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We model the summer acceleration of ice velocities at a land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Model results compare favourably against GPS data, reflecting positively on the model components and the datasets used. When we run the model into the future, we find that summer velocities increase with increasing levels of surface melt but that changes in annual velocities may be limited.
Conrad P. Koziol and Neil Arnold
The Cryosphere, 11, 2783–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2783-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2783-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a new ice sheet model and couple it to an existing subglacial hydrology model. A workflow for initializing the coupled model at the start of summer is proposed and demonstrated on the Russell Glacier area of Western Greenland. This is a first step towards modelling ice velocities during the summer.
Daniel N. Goldberg, Sri Hari Krishna Narayanan, Laurent Hascoet, and Jean Utke
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1891-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1891-2016, 2016
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Geophysical adjoint models are powerful tools, allowing sensitivity studies that are not possible otherwise, and enabling optimized fit of models to observing data sets. The complexity involved requires the use of algorithmic differentiation (AD) software, but AD adjoint calculation for ice models can be slow, with prohibitive memory requirements. In this paper, we present a method to improve the performance of ice model adjoint generation, in terms of timing, memory load, and accuracy.
D. N. Goldberg, P. Heimbach, I. Joughin, and B. Smith
The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015, 2015
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We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.
D. N. Goldberg and P. Heimbach
The Cryosphere, 7, 1659–1678, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1659-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1659-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Cryosphere
Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB): a model of firn processes for cryosphere research
Sensitivity of NEMO4.0-SI3 model parameters on sea ice budgets in the Southern Ocean
Introducing CRYOWRF v1.0: multiscale atmospheric flow simulations with advanced snow cover modelling
SUHMO: an adaptive mesh refinement SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel v1.0
Improving snow albedo modeling in the E3SM land model (version 2.0) and assessing its impacts on snow and surface fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau
The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0)
The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0)
Improved representation of the contemporary Greenland ice sheet firn layer by IMAU-FDM v1.2G
Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.
Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0)
SnowClim v1.0: high-resolution snow model and data for the western United States
Snow Multidata Mapping and Modeling (S3M) 5.1: a distributed cryospheric model with dry and wet snow, data assimilation, glacier mass balance, and debris-driven melt
The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere
MPAS-Seaice (v1.0.0): sea-ice dynamics on unstructured Voronoi meshes
Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography)
Geometric remapping of particle distributions in the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI v0.0)
Mapping high-resolution basal topography of West Antarctica from radar data using non-stationary multiple-point geostatistics (MPS-BedMappingV1)
NEMO-Bohai 1.0: a high-resolution ocean and sea ice modelling system for the Bohai Sea, China
An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
WIFF1.0: a hybrid machine-learning-based parameterization of wave-induced sea ice floe fracture
The Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM v1.0): development and evaluation
SNICAR-ADv3: a community tool for modeling spectral snow albedo
STEMMUS-UEB v1.0.0: integrated modeling of snowpack and soil water and energy transfer with three complexity levels of soil physical processes
A versatile method for computing optimized snow albedo from spectrally fixed radiative variables: VALHALLA v1.0
Ice Algae Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (IAMIP2)
A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0
SITool (v1.0) – a new evaluation tool for large-scale sea ice simulations: application to CMIP6 OMIP
Development of adjoint-based ocean state estimation for the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas and ice shelf cavities using MITgcm–ECCO (66j)
Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere climate to ice–ocean interface heat flux parameterizations
icepack: a new glacier flow modeling package in Python, version 1.0
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain
Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adélie Land, East Antarctica
Assessment of numerical schemes for transient, finite-element ice flow models using ISSM v4.18
The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model: UFEMISM (version 1.0)
PERICLIMv1.0: a model deriving palaeo-air temperatures from thaw depth in past permafrost regions
Assessing the simulated soil hydrothermal regime of the active layer from the Noah-MP land surface model (v1.1) in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
CrocO_v1.0: a particle filter to assimilate snowpack observations in a spatialised framework
A fully coupled Arctic sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere model (ArcIOAM v1.0) based on C-Coupler2: model description and preliminary results
The Framework For Ice Sheet–Ocean Coupling (FISOC) V1.1
Comparison of sea ice kinematics at different resolutions modeled with a grid hierarchy in the Community Earth System Model (version 1.2.1)
Snow profile alignment and similarity assessment for aggregating, clustering, and evaluating snowpack model output for avalanche forecasting
Improvements in one-dimensional grounding-line parameterizations in an ice-sheet model with lateral variations (PSUICE3D v2.1)
Implementation of the RCIP scheme and its performance for 1-D age computations in ice-sheet models
COSIPY v1.3 – an open-source coupled snowpack and ice surface energy and mass balance model
Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes
Impact of the ice thickness distribution discretization on the sea ice concentration variability in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model
Simulating the Early Holocene demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with BISICLES (public trunk revision 3298)
Extended enthalpy formulations in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) version 4.17: discontinuous conductivity and anisotropic streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method
The Community Firn Model (CFM) v1.0
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Varun Sharma, Franziska Gerber, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 719–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, 2023
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Most current generation climate and weather models have a relatively simplistic description of snow and snow–atmosphere interaction. One reason for this is the belief that including an advanced snow model would make the simulations too computationally demanding. In this study, we bring together two state-of-the-art models for atmosphere (WRF) and snow cover (SNOWPACK) and highlight both the feasibility and necessity of such coupled models to explore underexplored phenomena in the cryosphere.
Anne M. Felden, Daniel F. Martin, and Esmond G. Ng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a novel subglacial hydrology model, SUHMO, based on an adaptive mesh refinement framework. We propose the addition of a pseudo-diffusion to recover the wall melting in channels. Computational performance analysis demonstrates the efficiency of adaptive mesh refinement on large-scale hydrologic problems. The adaptive mesh refinement approach will eventually enable better ice bed boundary conditions for ice sheet simulations at a reasonable computational cost.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Edward Bair, Cenlin He, Huilin Huang, Cheng Dang, Timbo Stillinger, Yu Gu, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, 2023
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Snow with the highest albedo of land surface plays a vital role in Earth’s surface energy budget and water cycle. This study accounts for the impacts of snow grain shape and mixing state of light-absorbing particles with snow on snow albedo in the E3SM land model. The findings advance our understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offer guidance for improving snow simulations and radiative forcing estimates in Earth system models.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Abby C. Lute, John Abatzoglou, and Timothy Link
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5045–5071, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5045-2022, 2022
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We developed a snow model that can be used to quantify snowpack over large areas with a high degree of spatial detail. We ran the model over the western United States, creating a snow and climate dataset for three time periods. Compared to observations of snowpack, the model captured the key aspects of snow across time and space. The model and dataset will be useful in understanding historical and future changes in snowpack, with relevance to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems.
Francesco Avanzi, Simone Gabellani, Fabio Delogu, Francesco Silvestro, Edoardo Cremonese, Umberto Morra di Cella, Sara Ratto, and Hervé Stevenin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4853–4879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4853-2022, 2022
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Knowing in real time how much snow and glacier ice has accumulated across the landscape has significant implications for water-resource management and flood control. This paper presents a computer model – S3M – allowing scientists and decision makers to predict snow and ice accumulation during winter and the subsequent melt during spring and summer. S3M has been employed for real-world flood forecasting since the early 2000s but is here being made open source for the first time.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-127, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate for example permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
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We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Adrian K. Turner, Kara J. Peterson, and Dan Bolintineanu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1953–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1953-2022, 2022
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We developed a technique to remap sea ice tracer quantities between circular discrete element distributions. This is needed for a global discrete element method sea ice model being developed jointly by Los Alamos National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories that has the potential to better utilize newer supercomputers with graphics processing units and better represent sea ice dynamics. This new remapping technique ameliorates the effect of element distortion created by sea ice ridging.
Zhen Yin, Chen Zuo, Emma J. MacKie, and Jef Caers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022, 2022
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We provide a multiple-point geostatistics approach to probabilistically learn from training images to fill large-scale irregular geophysical data gaps. With a repository of global topographic training images, our approach models high-resolution basal topography and quantifies the geospatial uncertainty. It generated high-resolution topographic realizations to investigate the impact of basal topographic uncertainty on critical subglacial hydrological flow patterns associated with ice velocity.
Yu Yan, Wei Gu, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Yingjun Xu, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1269–1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1269-2022, 2022
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In this study, we developed NEMO-Bohai, an ocean–ice model for the Bohai Sea, China. This study presented the scientific design and technical choices of the parameterizations for the NEMO-Bohai model. The model was calibrated and evaluated with in situ and satellite observations of ocean and sea ice. NEMO-Bohai is intended to be a valuable tool for long-term ocean and ice simulations and climate change studies.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1155–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, 2022
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We present an improved coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice prediction. We perform Arctic sea ice prediction experiments with improved/updated physical parameterizations, which show better skill in predicting sea ice state as well as atmospheric and oceanic state in the Arctic compared with its predecessor. The improved model also shows extended predictive skill of Arctic sea ice after the summer season. This provides an added value of this prediction system for decision-making.
Christopher Horvat and Lettie A. Roach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-803-2022, 2022
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Sea ice is a composite of individual pieces, called floes, ranging in horizontal size from meters to kilometers. Variations in sea ice geometry are often forced by ocean waves, a process that is an important target of global climate models as it affects the rate of sea ice melting. Yet directly simulating these interactions is computationally expensive. We present a neural-network-based model of wave–ice fracture that allows models to incorporate their effect without added computational cost.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 617–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, 2022
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Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. Hence, the model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change.
Mark G. Flanner, Julian B. Arnheim, Joseph M. Cook, Cheng Dang, Cenlin He, Xianglei Huang, Deepak Singh, S. McKenzie Skiles, Chloe A. Whicker, and Charles S. Zender
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7673–7704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7673-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7673-2021, 2021
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We present the technical formulation and evaluation of a publicly available code and web-based model to simulate the spectral albedo of snow. Our model accounts for numerous features of the snow state and ambient conditions, including the the presence of light-absorbing matter like black and brown carbon, mineral dust, volcanic ash, and snow algae. Carbon dioxide snow, found on Mars, is also represented. The model accurately reproduces spectral measurements of clean and contaminated snow.
Lianyu Yu, Yijian Zeng, and Zhongbo Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7345–7376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7345-2021, 2021
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We developed an integrated soil–snow–atmosphere model (STEMMUS-UEB) dedicated to the physical description of snow and soil processes with various complexities. With STEMMUS-UEB, we demonstrated that the snowpack affects not only the soil surface moisture conditions (in the liquid and ice phase) and energy-related states (albedo, LE) but also the subsurface soil water and vapor transfer, which contributes to a better understanding of the hydrothermal implications of the snowpack in cold regions.
Florent Veillon, Marie Dumont, Charles Amory, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7329–7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, 2021
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In climate models, the snow albedo scheme generally calculates only a narrowband or broadband albedo. Therefore, we have developed the VALHALLA method to optimize snow spectral albedo calculations through the determination of spectrally fixed radiative variables. The development of VALHALLA v1.0 with the use of the snow albedo model TARTES and the spectral irradiance model SBDART indicates a considerable reduction in calculation time while maintaining an adequate accuracy of albedo values.
Hakase Hayashida, Meibing Jin, Nadja S. Steiner, Neil C. Swart, Eiji Watanabe, Russell Fiedler, Andrew McC. Hogg, Andrew E. Kiss, Richard J. Matear, and Peter G. Strutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6847–6861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6847-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6847-2021, 2021
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Ice algae are tiny plants like phytoplankton but they grow within sea ice. In polar regions, both phytoplankton and ice algae are the foundation of marine ecosystems and play an important role in taking up carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, state-of-the-art climate models typically do not include ice algae, and therefore their role in the climate system remains unclear. This project aims to address this knowledge gap by coordinating a set of experiments using sea-ice–ocean models.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
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Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6331–6354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, 2021
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This study introduces a new Sea Ice Evaluation Tool (SITool) to evaluate the model skills on the bipolar sea ice simulations by providing performance metrics and diagnostics. SITool is applied to evaluate the CMIP6 OMIP simulations. By changing the atmospheric forcing from CORE-II to JRA55-do data, many aspects of sea ice simulations are improved. SITool will be useful for helping teams managing various versions of a sea ice model or tracking the time evolution of model performance.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Dimitris Menemenlis, Ou Wang, Hong Zhang, Ian Fenty, and An T. Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4909–4924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4909-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4909-2021, 2021
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High ice shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea has attracted many observational campaigns in the past decade. One method to combine observations with numerical models is the adjoint method. After 20 iterations, the cost function, defined as a sum of the weighted model–data difference, is reduced by 65 % by adjusting initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and vertical diffusivity. This study demonstrates adjoint-method optimization with explicit representation of ice shelf cavity circulation.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
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The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Daniel R. Shapero, Jessica A. Badgeley, Andrew O. Hoffman, and Ian R. Joughin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4593–4616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4593-2021, 2021
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This paper describes a new software package called "icepack" for modeling the flow of ice sheets and glaciers. Glaciologists use tools like icepack to better understand how ice sheets flow, what role they have played in shaping Earth's climate, and how much sea level rise we can expect in the coming decades to centuries. The icepack package includes several innovations to help researchers describe and solve interesting glaciological problems and to experiment with the underlying model physics.
Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Mehdi Pasha Karami, François Massonnet, Tim Kruschke, and Torben Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021
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Three decadal prediction experiments with EC-Earth3 are performed to investigate the impact of ocean, sea ice concentration and thickness initialization, respectively. We find that the persistence of perennial thick ice in the central Arctic can affect the sea ice predictability in its adjacent waters via advection process or wind, despite those regions being seasonally ice free during two recent decades. This has implications for the coming decades as the thinning of Arctic sea ice continues.
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021
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We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021
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This paper presents recent developments in the drifting-snow scheme of the regional climate model MAR and its application to simulate drifting snow and the surface mass balance of Adélie Land in East Antarctica. The model is extensively described and evaluated against a multi-year drifting-snow dataset and surface mass balance estimates available in the area. The model sensitivity to input parameters and improvements over a previously published version are also assessed.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2545–2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, 2021
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Numerical models are routinely used to understand the past and future behavior of ice sheets in response to climate evolution. As is always the case with numerical modeling, one needs to minimize biases and numerical artifacts due to the choice of numerical scheme employed in such models. Here, we assess different numerical schemes in time-dependent simulations of ice sheets. We also introduce a new parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice sheet flow.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Tomáš Uxa, Marek Křížek, and Filip Hrbáček
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1865–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1865-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1865-2021, 2021
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We present a simple model that derives palaeo-air temperature characteristics related to the palaeo-active-layer thickness, which can be recognized using many relict periglacial features found in past permafrost regions. Its evaluation against modern temperature records and an experimental palaeo-air temperature reconstruction showed relatively high model accuracy, which suggests that it could become a useful tool for reconstructing Quaternary palaeo-environments.
Xiangfei Li, Tonghua Wu, Xiaodong Wu, Jie Chen, Xiaofan Zhu, Guojie Hu, Ren Li, Yongping Qiao, Cheng Yang, Junming Hao, Jie Ni, and Wensi Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1753-2021, 2021
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In this study, an ensemble simulation of 55296 scheme combinations for at a typical permafrost site on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) was conducted. The general performance of the Noah-MP model for snow cover events (SCEs), soil temperature (ST) and soil liquid water content (SLW) was assessed, and the sensitivities of parameterization schemes at different depths were investigated. We show that Noah-MP tends to overestimate SCEs and underestimate ST and topsoil SLW on the QTP.
Bertrand Cluzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuel Cosme, Clément Albergel, Louis-François Meunier, and Marie Dumont
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1595–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1595-2021, 2021
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In the mountains, the combination of large model error and observation sparseness is a challenge for data assimilation. Here, we develop two variants of the particle filter (PF) in order to propagate the information content of observations into unobserved areas. By adjusting observation errors or exploiting background correlation patterns, we demonstrate the potential for partial observations of snow depth and surface reflectance to improve model accuracy with the PF in an idealised setting.
Shihe Ren, Xi Liang, Qizhen Sun, Hao Yu, L. Bruno Tremblay, Bo Lin, Xiaoping Mai, Fu Zhao, Ming Li, Na Liu, Zhikun Chen, and Yunfei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1101–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1101-2021, 2021
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Sea ice plays a crucial role in global energy and water budgets. To get a better simulation of sea ice, we coupled a sea ice model with an atmospheric and ocean model to form a fully coupled system. The sea ice simulation results of this coupled system demonstrated that a two-way coupled model has better performance in terms of sea ice, especially in summer. This indicates that sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere interaction plays a crucial role in controlling Arctic summertime sea ice distribution.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
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Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Shiming Xu, Jialiang Ma, Lu Zhou, Yan Zhang, Jiping Liu, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 603–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-603-2021, 2021
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A multi-resolution tripolar grid hierarchy is constructed and integrated in CESM (version 1.2.1). The resolution range includes 0.45, 0.15, and 0.05°. Based on atmospherically forced sea ice experiments, the model simulates reasonable sea ice kinematics and scaling properties. Landfast ice thickness can also be systematically shifted due to non-convergent solutions to an
elastic–viscous–plastic (EVP) model. This work is a framework for multi-scale modeling of the ocean and sea ice with CESM.
Florian Herla, Simon Horton, Patrick Mair, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 239–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, 2021
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The adoption of snowpack models in support of avalanche forecasting has been limited. To promote their operational application, we present a numerical method for processing multivariate snow stratigraphy profiles of mixed data types. Our algorithm enables applications like dynamical grouping and summarizing of model simulations, model evaluation, and data assimilation. By emulating the human analysis process, our approach will allow forecasters to familiarly interact with snowpack simulations.
David Pollard and Robert M. DeConto
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6481–6500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6481-2020, 2020
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Buttressing by floating ice shelves at ice-sheet grounding lines is an
important process that affects ice retreat and whether structural failure
occurs in deep bathymetry. Here, we use a simple algorithm to better
represent 2-D grounding-line curvature in an ice-sheet model. Along with other
enhancements, this improves the performance in idealized-fjord intercomparisons
and enables better diagnosis of potential structural failure at future
retreating Antarctic grounding lines.
Fuyuki Saito, Takashi Obase, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5875–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020, 2020
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The present study introduces the rational function-based constrained interpolation profile (RCIP) method for use in 1 d dating computations in ice sheets and demonstrates the performance of the scheme. Comparisons are examined among the RCIP schemes and the first- and second-order upwind schemes. The results show that, in particular, the RCIP scheme preserves the pattern of input histories, in terms of the profile of internal annual layer thickness, better than the other schemes.
Tobias Sauter, Anselm Arndt, and Christoph Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5645–5662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5645-2020, 2020
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Glacial changes play a key role from a socioeconomic, political, and scientific point of view. Here, we present the open-source coupled snowpack and ice surface energy and mass balance model, which provides a lean, flexible, and user-friendly framework for modeling distributed snow and glacier mass changes. The model provides a suitable platform for sensitivity, detection, and attribution analyses for glacier changes and a tool for quantifying inherent uncertainties.
Alex West, Mat Collins, and Ed Blockley
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4845–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020, 2020
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This study calculates sea ice energy fluxes from data produced by ice mass balance buoys (devices measuring ice elevation and temperature). It is shown how the resulting dataset can be used to evaluate a coupled climate model (HadGEM2-ES), with biases in the energy fluxes seen to be consistent with biases in the sea ice state and surface radiation. This method has potential to improve sea ice model evaluation, so as to better understand spread in model simulations of sea ice state.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, and François Massonnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4773–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, 2020
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Climate models need to capture sea ice complexity to represent it realistically. Here we assess how distributing sea ice in discrete thickness categories impacts how sea ice variability is simulated in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 model. Simulations and satellite observations are compared by using k-means clustering of sea ice concentration in winter and summer between 1979 and 2014 at both poles. Little improvements in the modeled sea ice lead us to recommend using the standard number of five categories.
Ilkka S. O. Matero, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4555–4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020, 2020
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The Northern Hemisphere cooled by several degrees for a century 8000 years ago due to the collapse of an ice sheet in North America that released large amounts of meltwater into the North Atlantic and slowed down its circulation. We numerically model the ice sheet to understand its evolution during this event. Our results match data thanks to good ice dynamics but depend mostly on surface melt and snowfall. Further work will help us understand how past and future ice melt affects climate.
Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4491–4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4491-2020, 2020
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We present enthalpy formulations within the Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System model that show better performance than earlier implementations. A first experiment indicates that the treatment of discontinuous conductivities of the solid–fluid system with a geometric mean produce accurate results when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second experiment, we propose a novel stabilization formulation that avoids the problem of thin elements. This method provides accurate and stable results.
C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Jessica M. D. Lundin, Emma C. Kahle, Annika N. Horlings, Brita I. Horlings, and Edwin D. Waddington
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4355–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4355-2020, 2020
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Understanding processes in snow (firn), including compaction and airflow, is important for calculating how much mass the ice sheets are losing and for interpreting climate records from ice cores. We have developed the open-source Community Firn Model to simulate these processes. We used it to compare 13 different firn compaction equations and found that they do not agree within 10 %. We also show that including firn compaction in a firn-air model improves the match with data from ice cores.
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Short summary
Sea level change due to the loss of ice sheets presents great risk for coastal communities. Models are used to forecast ice loss, but their evolution depends strongly on properties which are hidden from observation and must be inferred from satellite observations. Common methods for doing so do not allow for quantification of the uncertainty inherent or how it will affect forecasts. We provide a framework for quantifying how this
initialization uncertaintyaffects ice loss forecasts.
Sea level change due to the loss of ice sheets presents great risk for coastal communities....
