Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4617–4639, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4617–4639, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4617-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper 27 Jul 2021
Model evaluation paper | 27 Jul 2021
Model intercomparison of COSMO 5.0 and IFS 45r1 at kilometer-scale grid spacing
Christian Zeman et al.
Related authors
Christian Zeman and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-248, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
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Our atmosphere is a chaotic system, where even a tiny change can have a big impact. This makes it difficult to assess if small changes, such as the move to a new hardware architecture, will significantly affect a weather and climate model. We present a methodology that allows to objectively verify this. The methodology is applied to several test cases, showing a high sensitivity. Results also show that a major system update of the underlying supercomputer did not significantly affect our model.
Daniel Regenass, Linda Schlemmer, Elena Jahr, and Christoph Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-426, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
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Weather and climate models need to represent the water cycle on land in order to provide accurate estimates of moisture and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Infiltration of water into the soil is often modeled with an equation describing water transport in porous media. Here, we point out some challenges arising in the numerical solution of this equation and show the consequences for the representation of the water cycle in modern weather and climate models.
Christian Zeman and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-248, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Our atmosphere is a chaotic system, where even a tiny change can have a big impact. This makes it difficult to assess if small changes, such as the move to a new hardware architecture, will significantly affect a weather and climate model. We present a methodology that allows to objectively verify this. The methodology is applied to several test cases, showing a high sensitivity. Results also show that a major system update of the underlying supercomputer did not significantly affect our model.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-34, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
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In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is re-distributed to higher levels in the atmosphere which weakens the surface warming.
Jérôme Barré, Ilse Aben, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Nicolas Bousserez, Peter Dueben, Richard Engelen, Antje Inness, Alba Lorente, Joe McNorton, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Gabor Radnoti, and Roberto Ribas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5117–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5117-2021, 2021
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This study presents a new approach to the systematic global detection of anomalous local CH4 concentration anomalies caused by rapid changes in anthropogenic emission levels. The approach utilises both satellite measurements and model simulations, and applies novel data analysis techniques (such as filtering and classification) to automatically detect anomalous emissions from point sources and small areas, such as oil and gas drilling sites, pipelines and facility leaks.
Jun-Ichi Yano and Nils P. Wedi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4759–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4759-2021, 2021
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Sensitivities of forecasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to various different configurations of the physics are examined with the global model of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The motivation for the study was to simulate the MJO as a nonlinear free wave. To emulate free dynamics in the IFS,
various momentum dissipation terms (
friction) as well as diabatic heating were selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes from 20° S to 20° N.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1261, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different time scales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
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Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
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Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Andreas Müller, Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Michael Lange, Nils Wedi, Peter Bauer, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz, Michail Diamantakis, Sarah-Jane Lock, Mats Hamrud, Sami Saarinen, George Mozdzynski, Daniel Thiemert, Michael Glinton, Pierre Bénard, Fabrice Voitus, Charles Colavolpe, Philippe Marguinaud, Yongjun Zheng, Joris Van Bever, Daan Degrauwe, Geert Smet, Piet Termonia, Kristian P. Nielsen, Bent H. Sass, Jacob W. Poulsen, Per Berg, Carlos Osuna, Oliver Fuhrer, Valentin Clement, Michael Baldauf, Mike Gillard, Joanna Szmelter, Enda O'Brien, Alastair McKinstry, Oisín Robinson, Parijat Shukla, Michael Lysaght, Michał Kulczewski, Milosz Ciznicki, Wojciech Piątek, Sebastian Ciesielski, Marek Błażewicz, Krzysztof Kurowski, Marcin Procyk, Pawel Spychala, Bartosz Bosak, Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, Erwan Raffin, Cyril Mazauric, David Guibert, Louis Douriez, Xavier Vigouroux, Alan Gray, Peter Messmer, Alexander J. Macfaden, and Nick New
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4425–4441, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4425-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4425-2019, 2019
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This paper presents an overview of the ESCAPE project. Dwarfs (key patterns in terms of computation and communication) are identified in weather prediction models. They are optimised for different hardware architectures. New algorithms are developed that are specifically designed for better energy efficiency and improved portability through domain-specific languages. Different numerical techniques are compared in terms of energy efficiency and performance for a variety of computing technologies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
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Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Christian Kühnlein, Willem Deconinck, Rupert Klein, Sylvie Malardel, Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz, Joanna Szmelter, and Nils P. Wedi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 651–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-651-2019, 2019
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We present a novel finite-volume dynamical core formulation considered for future numerical weather prediction at ECMWF. We demonstrate that this formulation can be competitive in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency to the proven spectral-transform dynamical core formulation currently operational at ECMWF, while providing a local, more scalable discretization, conservative and monotone advective transport, and flexible meshes.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
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Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
Peter D. Dueben and Peter Bauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3999–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3999-2018, 2018
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We discuss the question of whether weather forecast models that are based on deep learning and trained on atmospheric data can compete with conventional weather and climate models that are based on physical principles and the basic equations of motion. We discuss the question in the context of global weather forecasts. A toy model for global weather predictions will be presented and used to identify challenges and fundamental design choices for a forecast system based on neural networks.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
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Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Bryan N. Lawrence, Michael Rezny, Reinhard Budich, Peter Bauer, Jörg Behrens, Mick Carter, Willem Deconinck, Rupert Ford, Christopher Maynard, Steven Mullerworth, Carlos Osuna, Andrew Porter, Kim Serradell, Sophie Valcke, Nils Wedi, and Simon Wilson
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1799–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1799-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1799-2018, 2018
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Weather and climate models consist of complex software evolving in response to both scientific requirements and changing computing hardware. After years of relatively stable hardware, more diversity is arriving. It is possible that this hardware diversity and the pace of change may lead to an inability for modelling groups to manage their software development. This
chasmbetween aspiration and reality may need to be bridged by large community efforts rather than traditional
in-houseefforts.
Prisco Frei, Sven Kotlarski, Mark A. Liniger, and Christoph Schär
The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018
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Snowfall is central to Alpine environments, and its future changes will be associated with pronounced impacts. We here assess future snowfall changes in the European Alps based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate model experiments and on two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results reveal pronounced changes in the Alpine snowfall climate with considerable snowfall reductions at low and mid-elevations but also snowfall increases at high elevations in midwinter.
Martin Wild, Atsumu Ohmura, Christoph Schär, Guido Müller, Doris Folini, Matthias Schwarz, Maria Zyta Hakuba, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 601–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, 2017
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The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) is a database for the central storage of worldwide measured energy fluxes at the Earth's surface, maintained at ETH Zurich (Switzerland). This paper documents the status of the GEBA version 2017 database, presents the new web interface and user access, and reviews the scientific impact that GEBA data had in various applications. GEBA has continuously been expanded and updated and to date contains around 500 000 monthly mean entries from 2500 locations.
Andrew Dawson and Peter D. Düben
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2221–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2221-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2221-2017, 2017
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Weather and climate models must become more efficient if they continue growing in complexity. One option for reducing computational cost is to reduce numerical precision. We present a tool that allows users to study how models perform with reduced numerical precision. The tool is applied to a geophysical use case where precision is heavily reduced while maintaining suitable accuracy. The tool can be applied to other models to determine whether they can be made more computationally efficient.
David Leutwyler, Oliver Fuhrer, Xavier Lapillonne, Daniel Lüthi, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3393–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016, 2016
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The representation of moist convection (thunderstorms and rain showers) in climate models represents a major challenge, as this process is usually approximated due to the lack of appropriate computational resolution. Climate simulations using horizontal resolution of O(1 km) allow one to explicitly resolve deep convection and thus allow for an improved representation of the water cycle. We present a set of such simulations covering the European scale using a climate model enabled for GPUs.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
S. Kotlarski, K. Keuler, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, D. Jacob, D. Lüthi, E. van Meijgaard, G. Nikulin, C. Schär, C. Teichmann, R. Vautard, K. Warrach-Sagi, and V. Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Modeling sensitivities of BVOCs to different versions of MEGAN emission schemes in WRF-Chem (v3.6) and its impacts over eastern China
Influence on the temperature estimation of the planetary boundary layer scheme with different minimum eddy diffusivity in WRF v3.9.1.1
GCAP 2.0: a global 3-D chemical-transport model framework for past, present, and future climate scenarios
Incorporation of volcanic SO2 emissions in the Hemispheric CMAQ (H-CMAQ) version 5.2 modeling system and assessing their impacts on sulfate aerosol over the Northern Hemisphere
Efficient ensemble generation for uncertain correlated parameters in atmospheric chemical models: a case study for biogenic emissions from EURAD-IM version 5
Position correction in dust storm forecasting using LOTOS-EUROS v2.1: grid-distorted data assimilation v1.0
Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation
Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a versatile emissions component for atmospheric models: application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS models
Mesoscale nesting interface of the PALM model system 6.0
Multi-sensor analyses of the skin temperature for the assimilation of satellite radiances in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS, cycle 47R1)
The Grell–Freitas (GF) convection parameterization: recent developments, extensions, and applications
Calibrating a global atmospheric chemistry transport model using Gaussian process emulation and ground-level concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide
The Community Inversion Framework v1.0: a unified system for atmospheric inversion studies
Modeling of land–surface interactions in the PALM model system 6.0: land surface model description, first evaluation, and sensitivity to model parameters
Improvements to the representation of BVOC chemistry–climate interactions in UKCA (v11.5) with the CRI-Strat 2 mechanism: incorporation and evaluation
Extension of a gaseous dry deposition algorithm to oxidized volatile organic compounds and hydrogen cyanide for application in chemistry transport models
iNRACM: incorporating 15N into the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) for assessing the role photochemistry plays in controlling the isotopic composition of NOx, NOy, and atmospheric nitrate
Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder v1.0: a novel method for estimating and emulating dynamic precipitation at high resolution
Validation of the PALM model system 6.0 in a real urban environment: a case study in Dejvice, Prague, the Czech Republic
Data reduction for inverse modeling: an adaptive approach v1.0
Comparison of source apportionment approaches and analysis of non-linearity in a real case model application
APFoam 1.0: integrated computational fluid dynamics simulation of O3–NOx–volatile organic compound chemistry and pollutant dispersion in a typical street canyon
Exploring deep learning for air pollutant emission estimation
urbanChemFoam 1.0: large-eddy simulation of non-stationary chemical transport of traffic emissions in an idealized street canyon
Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design
Sensitivity analysis of the PALM model system 6.0 in the urban environment
Investigating the importance of sub-grid particle formation in point source plumes over eastern China using IAP-AACM v1.0 with a sub-grid parameterization
SCARLET-1.0: SpheriCal Approximation for viRtuaL aggrEgaTes
BARRA v1.0: kilometre-scale downscaling of an Australian regional atmospheric reanalysis over four midlatitude domains
Verification of Near Surface Wind Patterns in Germany using Clear Air Radar Echoes
Grid-independent high-resolution dust emissions (v1.0) for chemical transport models: application to GEOS-Chem (12.5.0)
Oxidation of low-molecular-weight organic compounds in cloud droplets: development of the Jülich Aqueous-phase Mechanism of Organic Chemistry (JAMOC) in CAABA/MECCA (version 4.5.0)
Prediction of source contributions to urban background PM10 concentrations in European cities: a case study for an episode in December 2016 using EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 – Part 2: The city contribution
Vertical structure of cloud radiative heating in the tropics: confronting the EC-Earth v3.3.1/3P model with satellite observations
Evaluation of the offline-coupled GFSv15–FV3–CMAQv5.0.2 in support of the next-generation National Air Quality Forecast Capability over the contiguous United States
MSDM v1.0: A machine learning model for precipitation nowcasting over eastern China using multisource data
A climatology of tropical wind shear produced by clustering wind profiles from the Met Office Unified Model (GA7.0)
Surface representation impacts on turbulent heat fluxes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (v.4.1.3)
Evaluation of global EMEP MSC-W (rv4.34)-WRF (v3.9.1.1) model surface concentrations and wet deposition of reactive N and S with measurements
Effects of heterogeneous reactions on tropospheric chemistry: a global simulation with the chemistry–climate model CHASER V4.0
Development of a large-eddy simulation subgrid model based on artificial neural networks: a case study of turbulent channel flow
WRF-GC (v2.0): online two-way coupling of WRF (v3.9.1.1) and GEOS-Chem (v12.7.2) for modeling regional atmospheric chemistry–meteorology interactions
Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP
Towards an improved treatment of cloud–radiation interaction in weather and climate models: exploring the potential of the Tripleclouds method for various cloud types using libRadtran 2.0.4
A model for urban biogenic CO2 fluxes: Solar-Induced Fluorescence for Modeling Urban biogenic Fluxes (SMUrF v1)
OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting
Regional CO2 inversions with LUMIA, the Lund University Modular Inversion Algorithm, v1.0
The Detailed Emissions Scaling, Isolation, and Diagnostic (DESID) module in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.3.2
Evaluation of the dynamic core of the PALM model system 6.0 in a neutrally stratified urban environment: comparison between LES and wind-tunnel experiments
Implementing a sectional scheme for early aerosol growth from new particle formation in the Norwegian Earth System Model v2: comparison to observations and climate impacts
Mingshuai Zhang, Chun Zhao, Yuhan Yang, Qiuyan Du, Yonglin Shen, Shengfu Lin, Dasa Gu, Wenjing Su, and Cheng Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6155–6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6155-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6155-2021, 2021
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Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) can influence atmospheric chemistry and secondary pollutant formation. This study examines the performance of different versions of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) in modeling BVOCs and ozone and their sensitivities to vegetation distributions over eastern China. The results suggest more accurate vegetation distribution and measurements of BVOC emission fluxes are needed to reduce the uncertainties.
Hongyi Ding, Le Cao, Haimei Jiang, Wenxing Jia, Yong Chen, and Junling An
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6135–6153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6135-2021, 2021
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We performed a WRF model study to figure out the mechanism of how the change in minimum eddy diffusivity (Kzmin) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) closure scheme (ACM2) affects the simulated near-surface temperature in Beijing, China. Moreover, the influence of changing Kzmin on the temperature prediction in areas with different land-use categories was studied. The model performance using a functional-type Kzmin for capturing the temperature change in this area was also clarified.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
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Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5751–5768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021, 2021
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The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system extended for hemispheric-scale applications (H-CMAQ) incorporated the satellite-constrained degassing SO2 emissions from 50 volcanos across the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on tropospheric sulfate aerosol (SO42−) is assessed for 2010. Although the considered volcanic emissions occurred at or below the middle of free troposphere (500 hPa), SO42− enhancements of more than 10 % were detected up to the top of free troposphere (250 hPa).
Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5583–5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, 2021
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While atmospheric chemical forecasts rely on uncertain model parameters, their huge dimensions hamper an efficient uncertainty estimation. This study presents a novel approach to efficiently sample these uncertainties by extracting dominant dependencies and correlations. Applying the algorithm to biogenic emissions, their uncertainties can be estimated from a low number of dominant components. This states the capability of an efficient treatment of parameter uncertainties in atmospheric models.
Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Hai Xiang Lin, Bas Henzing, Xiaohui Wang, Arnold Heemink, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5607–5622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021, 2021
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When discussing the accuracy of a dust forecast, the shape and position of the plume as well as the intensity are key elements. The position forecast determines which locations will be affected, while the intensity only describes the actual dust level. A dust forecast with position misfit directly results in incorrect timing profiles of dust loads. In this paper, an image-morphing-based data assimilation is designed for realigning a simulated dust plume to correct for the position error.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
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This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0 and its validation. The model performance is evaluated against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. Although we identified some problems to be addressed in further model upgrades, we demonstrated that SOCOLv4.0 is already well suited for studies related to chemistry–climate–aerosol interactions.
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
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Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to select, add, and scale emissions from different sources through a configuration file with no change to the model source code. We demonstrate the implementation of HEMCO in several models, all sharing the same HEMCO core code and database library.
Eckhard Kadasch, Matthias Sühring, Tobias Gronemeier, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5435–5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we provide a technical description of a newly developed interface for coupling the PALM model system 6.0 to the weather prediction model COSMO. The interface allows users of PALM to simulate the detailed atmospheric flow for relatively small regions of tens of kilometres under specific weather conditions, for instance, periods around observation campaigns or extreme weather situations. We demonstrate the interface using a benchmark simulation.
Sebastien Massart, Niels Bormann, Massimo Bonavita, and Cristina Lupu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5467–5485, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5467-2021, 2021
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Numerical weather predictions combine data from satellites with atmospheric forecasts. Some satellites measure the radiance emitted by the Earth's surface. To use this data, one must have knowledge of the surface properties, like the temperature of the thin layer above the surface. Error in this temperature leads to a misuse of the satellite data and affects the quality of the weather forecast. We updated our approach to better estimate this temperature, which should help improve the forecast.
Saulo R. Freitas, Georg A. Grell, and Haiqin Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5393–5411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5393-2021, 2021
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Convection parameterization (CP) is a component of atmospheric models aiming to represent the statistical effects of subgrid-scale convective clouds. Because the atmosphere contains circulations with a broad spectrum of scales, the truncation needed to run models in computers requires the introduction of parameterizations to account for processes that are not explicitly resolved. We detail recent developments in the Grell–Freitas CP, which has been applied in several regional and global models.
Edmund Ryan and Oliver Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5373–5391, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric chemistry transport models are important tools to investigate the local, regional and global controls on atmospheric composition and air quality. In this study, we estimate some of the model parameters using machine learning and statistics. Our findings identify the level of error and spatial coverage in the O2 and CO data that are needed to achieve good parameter estimates. We also highlight the benefits of using multiple constraints to calibrate atmospheric chemistry models.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Matthias Sühring, and Björn Maronga
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5307–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5307-2021, 2021
James Weber, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Nathan Luke Abraham, Youngsub M. Shin, Thomas J. Bannan, Carl J. Percival, Asan Bacak, Paulo Artaxo, Michael Jenkin, M. Anwar H. Khan, Dudley E. Shallcross, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Jonathan Williams, and Alex T. Archibald
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5239–5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, 2021
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The new mechanism CRI-Strat 2 features state-of-the-art isoprene chemistry not previously available in UKCA and improves UKCA's ability to reproduce observed concentrations of isoprene, monoterpenes, and OH in tropical regions. The enhanced ability to model isoprene, the most widely emitted non-methane volatile organic compound (VOC), will allow understanding of how isoprene and other biogenic VOCs affect atmospheric composition and, through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks, climate change.
Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, John T. Walker, Paul A. Makar, Judith A. Perlinger, and Xuemei Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5093–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, 2021
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A community dry deposition algorithm for modeling the gaseous dry deposition process in chemistry transport models was extended to include an additional 12 oxidized volatile organic compounds and hydrogen cyanide based on their physicochemical properties and was then evaluated using field flux measurements over a mixed forest. This study provides a useful tool that is needed in chemistry transport models with increasing complexity for simulating an important atmospheric process.
Huan Fang, Wendell W. Walters, David Mase, and Greg Michalski
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5001–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5001-2021, 2021
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A new photochemical reaction scheme that incorporates nitrogen isotopes has been developed to simulate isotope tracers in air pollution. The model contains 16 N compounds, and 96 reactions involving N used in the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) were replicated using 15N in a new mechanism called iNRACM. The model is able to predict d15N variations in NOx, HONO, and HNO3 that are similar to those observed in aerosol and gases in the troposphere.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Jaroslav Resler, Kryštof Eben, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Martin Rosecký, Matthias Sühring, Michal Belda, Vladimír Fuka, Tomáš Halenka, Peter Huszár, Jan Karlický, Nina Benešová, Jana Ďoubalová, Kateřina Honzáková, Josef Keder, Šárka Nápravníková, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4797–4842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4797-2021, 2021
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We describe validation of the PALM model v6.0 against measurements collected during two observational campaigns in Dejvice, Prague. The study focuses on the evaluation of the newly developed or improved radiative and energy balance modules in PALM related to urban modelling. In addition to the energy-related quantities, it also evaluates air flow and air quality under street canyon conditions.
Xiaoling Liu, August L. Weinbren, He Chang, Jovan M. Tadić, Marikate E. Mountain, Michael E. Trudeau, Arlyn E. Andrews, Zichong Chen, and Scot M. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4683–4696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4683-2021, 2021
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Observations of greenhouse gases have become far more numerous in recent years due to new satellite observations. The sheer size of these datasets makes it challenging to incorporate these data into statistical models and use these data to estimate greenhouse gas sources and sinks. In this paper, we develop an approach to reduce the size of these datasets while preserving the most information possible. We subsequently test this approach using satellite observations of carbon dioxide.
Claudio A. Belis, Guido Pirovano, Maria Gabriella Villani, Giuseppe Calori, Nicola Pepe, and Jean Philippe Putaud
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4731–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4731-2021, 2021
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The study presents an in-depth analysis of the implications that using different CTM source apportionment approaches (tagged species and brute force) have for the source allocation of secondary inorganic aerosol, an important component of PM10 and PM2.5. A set of runs combining different emission levels and models was carried out, aiming to describe the situations in which strong non-linearity may lead the two approaches to deliver different results and when they are expected to be comparable.
Luolin Wu, Jian Hang, Xuemei Wang, Min Shao, and Cheng Gong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4655–4681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4655-2021, 2021
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In order to investigate street-scale flow and air quality, this study has developed APFoam 1.0 to examine the reactive pollutant formation and dispersion in the urban area. The model has been validated and shows good agreement with wind tunnel experimental data. Model sensitivity cases reveal that vehicle emissions, background concentrations, and wind conditions are the key factors affecting the photochemical reaction process.
Lin Huang, Song Liu, Zeyuan Yang, Jia Xing, Jia Zhang, Jiang Bian, Siwei Li, Shovan Kumar Sahu, Shuxiao Wang, and Tie-Yan Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4641–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4641-2021, 2021
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Accurate estimation of emissions is a prerequisite for effectively controlling air pollution, but current methods lack either sufficient data or a representation of nonlinearity. Here, we proposed a novel deep learning method to model the dual relationship between emissions and pollutant concentrations. Emissions can be updated by back-propagating the gradient of the loss function measuring the deviation between simulations and observations, resulting in better model performance.
Edward C. Chan and Timothy M. Butler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4555–4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4555-2021, 2021
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A large-eddy simulation based chemical transport model is implemented for an idealized street canyon. The dynamics of the model are evaluated using stationary measurements. A transient model run is also conducted over a 24 h period, where variations of pollutant concentrations indicate dependence on emissions, background concentrations, and solar state. Comparison stationary model runs show changes in flow structure concentrations.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Michal Belda, Jaroslav Resler, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Björn Maronga, Matthias Sühring, Mona Kurppa, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Vladimír Fuka, Kryštof Eben, Nina Benešová, and Mikko Auvinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4443–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4443-2021, 2021
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The analysis summarizes how sensitive the modelling of urban environment is to changes in physical parameters describing the city (e.g. reflectivity of surfaces) and to several heat island mitigation scenarios in a city quarter in Prague, Czech Republic. We used the large-eddy simulation modelling system PALM 6.0. Surface parameters connected to radiation show the highest sensitivity in this configuration. For heat island mitigation, urban vegetation is shown to be the most effective measure.
Ying Wei, Xueshun Chen, Huansheng Chen, Yele Sun, Wenyi Yang, Huiyun Du, Qizhong Wu, Dan Chen, Xiujuan Zhao, Jie Li, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4411–4428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4411-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4411-2021, 2021
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The sub-grid particle formation (SGPF) in plumes plays an important role in air pollution and climate. We coupled an SGPF scheme to a chemical transport model with an aerosol microphysics module and applied it to investigate the SGPF impact over China. The scheme clearly improved the model performance in simulating aerosol components and particle number at typical sites influenced by point sources. The results indicate the significant effects of SGPF on aerosol particles in industrial areas.
Eduardo Rossi and Costanza Bonadonna
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4379–4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, 2021
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SCARLET-1.0 is a MATLAB package that creates virtual aggregates starting from a population of irregular shapes. Shapes are described in terms of the Standard Triangulation Language (STL) format, and this allows importing a great variety of shapes, such as from 3D scanning. The package produces a new STL file as an output and different analytical information about the packing, such as the porosity. It has been specifically designed for use in volcanology and scientific education.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Peter Steinle, Christopher J. White, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4357–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, 2021
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The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) has produced a very high-resolution reconstruction of Australian historical weather from 1990 to 2018. This paper demonstrates the added weather and climate information to supplement coarse- or moderate-resolution regional and global reanalyses. The new climate data can allow greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events, at very local kilometre scales.
Sebastian Buschow and Petra Friederichs
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-128, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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When insects fill the lower kilometers of the atmosphere, they get caught in the convergent parts of the wind field. Their concentration visualizes the otherwise invisible circulation on radar images. This study shows how clear air radar data can be compared to simulated wind fields in terms of scale, anisotropy and direction. Despite known difficulties with simulating these near-surface wind systems, we find decent agreement between a long-term simulation and the German radar composite.
Jun Meng, Randall V. Martin, Paul Ginoux, Melanie Hammer, Melissa P. Sulprizio, David A. Ridley, and Aaron van Donkelaar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4249–4260, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4249-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4249-2021, 2021
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Dust emissions in models, for example, GEOS-Chem, have a strong nonlinear dependence on meteorology, which means dust emission strengths calculated from different resolution meteorological fields are different. Offline high-resolution dust emissions with an optimized global dust strength, presented in this work, can be implemented into GEOS-Chem as offline emission inventory so that it could promote model development by harmonizing dust emissions across simulations of different resolutions.
Simon Rosanka, Rolf Sander, Andreas Wahner, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4103–4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4103-2021, 2021
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The Jülich Aqueous-phase Mechanism of Organic Chemistry (JAMOC) is developed and implemented into the Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (MECCA). JAMOC is an explicit in-cloud oxidation scheme for oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs), which is suitable for global model applications. Within a box-model study, we show that JAMOC yields reduced gas-phase concentrations of most OVOCs and oxidants, except for nitrogen oxides.
Matthieu Pommier
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4143–4158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4143-2021, 2021
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Within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), a forecasting system calculating the city source contribution for the surface urban background PM10 in European cities has been developed. The system uses the EMEP model and this paper presents the product by focusing on an event which occurred from 1 to 9 December 2016.
Erik Johansson, Abhay Devasthale, Michael Tjernström, Annica M. L. Ekman, Klaus Wyser, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, 2021
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Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is a grand challenge for the climate community. Cloud radiative heating (CRH) is a key parameter in this coupling and is therefore essential to model realistically. We, therefore, evaluate a climate model against satellite observations. Our findings indicate good agreement in the seasonal pattern of CRH even if the magnitude differs. We also find that increasing the horizontal resolution in the model has little effect on the CRH.
Xiaoyang Chen, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Youhua Tang, Jianping Huang, Patrick C. Campbell, Jeff Mcqueen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Daiwen Kang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021
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The continuously updated National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) provides air quality forecasts. To support the development of the next-generation NAQFC, we evaluate a prototype of GFSv15-CMAQv5.0.2. The performance and the potential improvements for the system are discussed. This study can provide a scientific basis for further development of NAQFC and help it to provide more accurate air quality forecasts to the public over the contiguous United States.
Dawei Li, Yudi Liu, and Chaohui Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4019–4034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4019-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4019-2021, 2021
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In the daily weather forecast business, numerical weather prediction is mainly used to forecast precipitation, but its performance for nowcasting tasks within 0–2 h is very poor. Hence, we hope to use machine learning to improve the accuracy and resolution of quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) tasks. Previous works focused on the extrapolation of radar echo without using abundant meteorological data. Therefore, we designed a model using three kinds of data for QPN in eastern china.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Robert S. Plant, Peter A. Clark, Alison J. Stirling, and Steven J. Woolnough
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4035–4049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4035-2021, 2021
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Wind shear causes organized convection in the tropics, producing, e.g., squall lines. We have developed a procedure for producing a climatology of sheared wind profiles in a climate model and demonstrated that the profiles are linked with organized convection, both in terms of their structure and their spatio-temporal distribution. The procedure could be used to diagnose organization of convection in a climate model, which could lead to improvements in the model's representation of convection.
Carlos Román-Cascón, Marie Lothon, Fabienne Lohou, Oscar Hartogensis, Jordi Vila-Guerau de Arellano, David Pino, Carlos Yagüe, and Eric R. Pardyjak
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3939–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3939-2021, 2021
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The type of vegetation (or land cover) and its status influence the heat and water transfers between the surface and the air, affecting the processes that develop in the atmosphere at different (but connected) spatiotemporal scales. In this work, we investigate how these transfers are affected by the way the surface is represented in a widely used weather model. The results encourage including realistic high-resolution and updated land cover databases in models to improve their predictions.
Yao Ge, Mathew R. Heal, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Massimo Vieno
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-166, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study reports the first evaluation of the global EMEP MSC-W ACTM driven by WRF meteorology, with a focus on surface concentrations and wet deposition of reactive N and S species. The model-measurement comparison is conducted both spatially and temporally, covering 9 monitoring networks worldwide. The statistics from the comprehensive evaluations presented in this study support the application of this model framework for global analysis of the budgets and fluxes of reactive N and SIA.
Phuc T. M. Ha, Ryoki Matsuda, Yugo Kanaya, Fumikazu Taketani, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3813–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3813-2021, 2021
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Policies to mitigate air pollution require an understanding of tropospheric oxidizing capacity, which is controlled by mechanisms including heterogeneous processes on aerosols and clouds. This study uses a chemistry–climate model CHASER (MIROC) to explore the heterogeneous effects in the troposphere for -2.96 % O3, -2.19 % NOx, +3.28 % CO, and +5.91 % CH4 lifetime. Besides, these processes affect polluted areas and remote areas and can bring challenges to pollution reduction efforts.
Robin Stoffer, Caspar M. van Leeuwen, Damian Podareanu, Valeriu Codreanu, Menno A. Veerman, Martin Janssens, Oscar K. Hartogensis, and Chiel C. van Heerwaarden
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3769–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3769-2021, 2021
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Turbulent flows are often simulated with the large-eddy simulation (LES) technique, which requires subgrid models to account for the smallest scales. Current subgrid models often require strong simplifying assumptions. We therefore developed a subgrid model based on artificial neural networks, which requires fewer assumptions. Our data-driven SGS model showed high potential in accurately representing the smallest scales but still introduced instability when incorporated into an actual LES.
Xu Feng, Haipeng Lin, Tzung-May Fu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jiawei Zhuang, Daniel J. Jacob, Heng Tian, Yaping Ma, Lijuan Zhang, Xiaolin Wang, Qi Chen, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3741–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3741-2021, 2021
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WRF-GC is an online coupling of the WRF meteorological model and GEOS-Chem chemical transport model for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. In WRF-GC v2.0, we implemented the aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as the capability to nest multiple domains for high-resolution simulations based on the modular framework of WRF-GC v1.0. This allows the GEOS-Chem users to investigate the meteorology–atmospheric chemistry interactions.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
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Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Nina Črnivec and Bernhard Mayer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3663-2021, 2021
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This study aims to advance the cloud–radiation interplay treatment in global weather and climate prediction, focusing on cloud horizontal inhomogeneity misrepresentation. We explore the potential of the Tripleclouds method for diverse cloud types, namely the stratocumulus, cirrus and cumulonimbus. The validity of global cloud variability estimate with various condensate distribution assumptions is assessed. Optimizations for overcast and extremely heterogeneous cloudiness are further endorsed.
Dien Wu, John C. Lin, Henrique F. Duarte, Vineet Yadav, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Tomohiro Oda, and Eric A. Kort
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3633–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, 2021
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A model (SMUrF) is presented that estimates biogenic CO2 fluxes over cities around the globe to separate out biogenic fluxes from anthropogenic emissions. The model leverages satellite-based solar-induced fluorescence data and a machine-learning technique. We evaluate the biogenic fluxes against flux observations and show contrasts between biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes over cities, revealing urban–rural flux gradients, diurnal cycles, and the resulting imprints on atmospheric-column CO2.
Sarah Sparrow, Andrew Bowery, Glenn D. Carver, Marcus O. Köhler, Pirkka Ollinaho, Florian Pappenberger, David Wallom, and Antje Weisheimer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3473–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021, 2021
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This paper describes how the research version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecast System is combined with climateprediction.net’s public volunteer computing resource to develop OpenIFS@home. Thousands of volunteer personal computers simulated slightly different realizations of Tropical Cyclone Karl to demonstrate the performance of the large-ensemble forecast. OpenIFS@Home offers researchers a new tool to study weather forecasts and related questions.
Guillaume Monteil and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3383–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3383-2021, 2021
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LUMIA is a Python library for atmospheric inversions, originally developed at Lund University to perform regional atmospheric CO2 inversions. The inversions rely on coupling the regional transport model FLEXPART and the global transport model TM5. The paper presents the modeling setup and some first results, and it introduces the LUMIA Python package as a toolbox for inversions beyond the use case presented in the paper.
Benjamin N. Murphy, Christopher G. Nolte, Fahim Sidi, Jesse O. Bash, K. Wyat Appel, Carey Jang, Daiwen Kang, James Kelly, Rohit Mathur, Sergey Napelenok, George Pouliot, and Havala O. T. Pye
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3407–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3407-2021, 2021
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The algorithms for applying air pollution emission rates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model have been improved to better support users and developers. The new features accommodate emissions perturbation studies that are typical in atmospheric research and output a wealth of metadata for each model run so assumptions can be verified and documented. The new approach dramatically enhances the transparency and functionality of this critical aspect of atmospheric modeling.
Tobias Gronemeier, Kerstin Surm, Frank Harms, Bernd Leitl, Björn Maronga, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3317–3333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3317-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate the capability of the PALM model system version 6.0 to simulate urban boundary layers. The studied situation includes a real-world building setup of the HafenCity area in Hamburg, Germany. We evaluate the simulation results against wind-tunnel measurements utilizing PALM's virtual measurement module. The comparison reveals an overall high agreement between simulation results and wind-tunnel measurements including mean wind speed and direction as well as turbulence statistics.
Sara M. Blichner, Moa K. Sporre, Risto Makkonen, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3335–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3335-2021, 2021
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Aerosol–cloud interactions are the largest contributor to climate forcing uncertainty. In this study we combine two common approaches to aerosol representation in global models: a sectional scheme, which is closer to first principals, for the smallest particles forming in the atmosphere and a log-modal scheme, which is faster, for the larger particles. With this approach, we improve the aerosol representation compared to observations, while only increasing the computational cost by 15 %.
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Short summary
Kilometer-scale atmospheric models allow us to partially resolve thunderstorms and thus improve their representation. We present an intercomparison between two distinct atmospheric models for 2 summer days with heavy thunderstorms over Europe. We show the dependence of precipitation and vertical wind speed on spatial and temporal resolution and also discuss the possible influence of the system of equations, numerical methods, and diffusion in the models.
Kilometer-scale atmospheric models allow us to partially resolve thunderstorms and thus improve...
