Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
On the model uncertainties in Bayesian source reconstruction using an ensemble of weather predictions, the emission inverse modelling system FREAR v1.0, and the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model Flexpart v9.0.2
Pieter De Meutter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, Canada
Belgian Nuclear Research Institute, Boeretang 200, Mol, Belgium
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, Brussels, Belgium
Ian Hoffman
Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, Canada
Kurt Ungar
Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, Canada
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatial-temporal source term estimation using deep neural network prior and its application to Chernobyl wildfires A. Brožová et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.137510
- Efficient Bayesian source reconstruction and uncertainty quantification of atmospheric radionuclide releases by replacing release rate sampling with Maximum-A-Posteriori estimation of time-varying release rates Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.138171
- Bayesian reconstruction of atmospheric radionuclide releases from sparse observations using nonuniform continuous priors for both spatial location and temporal release Y. Xu & S. Fang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.141898
- Impact of background representation on Bayesian radioxenon source estimation using IMS measurements O. Tichý et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108139
- A baseline for source localisation using the inverse modelling tool FREAR P. De Meutter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107372
- Sensitivity of Bayesian source reconstruction to likelihood functions: analyses based on ETEX field experiments Y. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2025.105909
- NeuPlume: generative inversion of atmospheric point-source emissions from sparse observations L. Wang & X. Ma https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14185-2026
- Uncertainty and source term reconstruction with environmental air samples I. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.106836
- Robust source reconstruction of atmospheric radionuclides from observations of different sparsity with spatial preselection and non-smooth constraints Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.136919
- Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event J. Dumont Le Brazidec et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021
- SAUNA Q - Array: The realization of a new concept in radioxenon detection A. Ringbom et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107136
- Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers P. Eslinger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107384
- Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples P. Eslinger & B. Milbrath https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107544
- Intuitively tuned elastic bias correction of atmospheric inversion using Gaussian process prior: Application to accidental radioactive emissions A. Brožová et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.141523
- Source reconstruction for atmospheric radionuclide leakage: Recent advances in decoding information from atmospheric transport physics Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.139534
- A spatiotemporally separated framework for reconstructing the sources of atmospheric radionuclide releases Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024
- Source term determination with elastic plume bias correction O. Tichý et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.127776
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatial-temporal source term estimation using deep neural network prior and its application to Chernobyl wildfires A. Brožová et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.137510
- Efficient Bayesian source reconstruction and uncertainty quantification of atmospheric radionuclide releases by replacing release rate sampling with Maximum-A-Posteriori estimation of time-varying release rates Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.138171
- Bayesian reconstruction of atmospheric radionuclide releases from sparse observations using nonuniform continuous priors for both spatial location and temporal release Y. Xu & S. Fang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.141898
- Impact of background representation on Bayesian radioxenon source estimation using IMS measurements O. Tichý et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108139
- A baseline for source localisation using the inverse modelling tool FREAR P. De Meutter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107372
- Sensitivity of Bayesian source reconstruction to likelihood functions: analyses based on ETEX field experiments Y. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2025.105909
- NeuPlume: generative inversion of atmospheric point-source emissions from sparse observations L. Wang & X. Ma https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14185-2026
- Uncertainty and source term reconstruction with environmental air samples I. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.106836
- Robust source reconstruction of atmospheric radionuclides from observations of different sparsity with spatial preselection and non-smooth constraints Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.136919
- Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event J. Dumont Le Brazidec et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021
- SAUNA Q - Array: The realization of a new concept in radioxenon detection A. Ringbom et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107136
- Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers P. Eslinger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107384
- Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples P. Eslinger & B. Milbrath https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107544
- Intuitively tuned elastic bias correction of atmospheric inversion using Gaussian process prior: Application to accidental radioactive emissions A. Brožová et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2026.141523
- Source reconstruction for atmospheric radionuclide leakage: Recent advances in decoding information from atmospheric transport physics Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.139534
- A spatiotemporally separated framework for reconstructing the sources of atmospheric radionuclide releases Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024
- Source term determination with elastic plume bias correction O. Tichý et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.127776
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Oct 2026
Short summary
Inverse atmospheric transport modelling is an important tool in several disciplines. However, the specification of atmospheric transport model error remains challenging. In this paper, we employ a state-of-the-art ensemble technique combined with a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference algorithm to infer point sources. Our research helps to fill the gap in our understanding of model error in the context of inverse atmospheric transport modelling.
Inverse atmospheric transport modelling is an important tool in several disciplines. However,...